tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-303832512024-03-18T16:13:49.547+01:00Horst WaltherMy near philosophical musings about the world in general its problems and possible ways out.Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-25063168195018896502024-03-18T16:13:00.000+01:002024-03-18T16:13:15.526+01:00Can We Still Afford Waging Wars?<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH3QVeGfvmtH6867Mgi62KhxRK4IL2I5UDU0cFIBZY18yurbBpO2N8wOmciXOM5FBNAp5SuwXjDno9x-PDAbSY53bCg_9QgdGhQLerk2YkcoLhBW3Yc1LBi8o_39aE_zXvJmPBV3tT0fioojyLJeAxcfvqEjrLotWdaUAm5WmQfNgck6CfOMDc/s2928/Baluschek_Der_Krieg_Tafel_10_Bild.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1971" data-original-width="2928" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH3QVeGfvmtH6867Mgi62KhxRK4IL2I5UDU0cFIBZY18yurbBpO2N8wOmciXOM5FBNAp5SuwXjDno9x-PDAbSY53bCg_9QgdGhQLerk2YkcoLhBW3Yc1LBi8o_39aE_zXvJmPBV3tT0fioojyLJeAxcfvqEjrLotWdaUAm5WmQfNgck6CfOMDc/w640-h430/Baluschek_Der_Krieg_Tafel_10_Bild.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br />"<i><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Anyone who has ever gazed into the glassy eyes of a soldier dying on the battlefield will think twice before starting a war.</span></i>"</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">These words are attributed to Otto von Bismarck. Given his political toughness, determination, and ability to enforce during his tenure as Prime Minister of Prussia and later as the first Chancellor of the German Empire, earning him the moniker "The Iron Chancellor," he was not known for sentimentality. Power politics was not an alien concept to him.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The current head of the Foreign Office, established by Bismarck, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who renamed the so-called Bismarck Room and removed a painting depicting the Chancellor, seems decidedly more bellicose. That our top diplomat saw Germany already at war with Russia could be dismissed as a slip of the tongue.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Yet, signals are mounting that we may already be on the brink of a pre-war era. At a closed security conference in November 2023, a former senior European official even questioned whether World War III might have already begun, noting that not all belligerents had entered World War II at the same time. The unspoken reference to the multinational conflict at our doorstep, which seems to have no end in sight yet harbours enormous escalation potential, was understood by all present.</span></p><h2 style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Enthusiasm for War</span></b></h2><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The political class's fervour for war across nearly all German parties and much of Europe is unmistakable.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">On February 28, 2024, the newsletter Europe.Table reported a new strategy by the EU Commission, marking a "paradigm shift towards a war economy."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Shortly before, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that the deployment of Western ground troops to Ukraine could not be "excluded."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Outspoken hawks like Anton Hofreiter of the formerly pacifistic party "BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN," who supported the delivery of offensive weapons to Ukraine, are evident.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">FDP defence politician Strack-Zimmermann expressed "astonishment" when the German Chancellor clearly rejected the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, eliciting criticism from other parties.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Not just in Europe: In early 2023, Victoria Nuland, the third-highest U.S. diplomat, encouraged Ukrainian forces to continue attacking Russian military bases in Crimea, at the expense of Ukrainian and Russian populations. Even former U.S. President Donald Trump called her a warmonger, contributing to our closeness to a Third World War like never before.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It's noticeable that those advocating for further escalation of this proxy war have not experienced war themselves. They likely cannot imagine the horrors it entails, horrors that deeply scar all involved, burdening individuals for life and passing through generations.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Or, as Harald Kujat, a retired general of the German Air Force, former Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, and Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, describes the debates on weapons in Germany:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">"<i><span style="color: #2b00fe;">There are people on German television with ten minutes of speaking time accusing the Chancellor of lying, who cannot tell a rifle from a cucumber.</span></i>"</span></p><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The Lure of Wars</span></h2><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In 1911, Norman Angell, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate in 1933, published a ground-breaking book titled "The Great Illusion," arguing that war had become economically senseless. He believed that the interconnectedness of nations through trade and finance would prevent major conflicts.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">His central thesis was that nations would not derive economic benefit from war, as it would disrupt global trade and prosperity.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Angell never declared war impossible, but his ideas resonated and influenced later discussions about war, peace, and conflict. His assumptions were based on a "chivalrous" treatment of defeated peoples, rooted in the Peace of Westphalia established in 1648, which lasted about 150 years. Apparently forgotten were the earlier, more archaic forms of war, where only one could survive, and genocide was a logical outcome.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Later, even Angell himself had doubts, and when 12 foreign ministers from Canada, the United States, and ten Western European countries signed the North Atlantic Treaty in Washington on April 4, 1949, founding NATO, Angell, by then knighted, supported the collective defence pact despite his pacifist background.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Wars seem to pay off, and as John Mearsheimer articulates in his widely cited book "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics," they are occasionally inevitable.</span></p><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But is the damage not greater than the benefit?</span></h2><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">And then there's the greatest of all technological threats. Martin Hellman, cryptography pioneer, co-inventor of the Diffie-Hellman algorithm, Turing Prize winner, and advocate for world peace, says: If we continue to wage wars, it's only a matter of time until nuclear bombs explode.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The "Mutually Assured Destruction" (MAD) doctrine, where superpowers possess enough nuclear arsenal to completely annihilate each other, was supposed to offer sufficient deterrence and lead to stability. The nuclear deterrence theory maintained</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> a kind of balance of terror during the Cold War between the USA and the Soviet Union. Without the MAD threat, however, these weapons of mass destruction were recklessly used, as proven by the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945, resulting in an immediate loss of about 200,000 lives.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">MAD may have prevented nuclear wars, but wars continued to be waged below the nuclear threshold. The United States, protected by two large oceans and bordered by far weaker states to the north and south, last experienced war on its territory on December 7, 1941, with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Before that, it was during the War of 1812 between the USA and Great Britain and its colonies.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The temptation to wage wars is apparently great when one's own territory is unaffected. It's a cynical argument, but does the benefit outweigh the potential harm? At least for the arms industry, as evidenced by the United States, it seems to. U.S. arms manufacturers have the largest market share in the world. Forty companies from the United States are listed in the SIPRI list of the world's largest arms manufacturers, generating almost $300 billion in 2021, roughly half of the global revenue in the arms trade. For some stakeholders, wars thus pay off.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This also applies to wars that result in the annexation of territories promising strategic benefits, whether military or economic. Genocide is not a goal, at least not an avowed goal anymore, but a tolerated collateral damage. Ethnic cleansings as a result of wars continue. Whether it's our NATO partner Turkey in Syria, or its allied regime in Azerbaijan with the conquered Armenians, criticism is only expected from those who fall out of favor for other reasons. Wars still pay off if carefully dimensioned, camouflaged, justified, and conducted at the opportune moment.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But does this still hold true for larger conflicts, where an attacker can expect worldwide impairments or even damage on their own territory? We now rely on a vulnerable global infrastructure whose failure would end civilian life as we know it.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In February 2024, there was heated discussion about an anti-satellite space weapon that Russia allegedly developed, which could potentially destroy the low Earth orbit for everyone.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">"<i><span style="color: #2b00fe;">If someone dares to detonate a nuclear weapon in the high atmosphere or even in space, it would be more or less the end of the usability of these global commons</span></i>," said Major General Michael Traut, responsible for Germany's military space command, according to Politico Europe. "<i><span style="color: #2b00fe;">No one would survive such an action - no satellite, whether Chinese, Russian, American, or European.</span></i>" In such a case, satellites currently orbiting the Earth would turn into debris, creating dense fields of wreckage.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, the civilian everyday life of the population on Earth, with telephones, computers, navigation, television, energy supply, and dependent services, in turn, depends on functioning satellites. Satellites thus constitute global, critical infrastructure. They are currently unprotected, perhaps even undefendable.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But what about critical infrastructure on Earth, i.e., the facilities, systems, services, and networks crucial for a society's functioning? They typically include:</span></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Energy supply</b>: Power plants, electricity grids, oil and gas pipelines.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Transportation</b>: Airports, ports, railways, roads, and bridges.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Communication</b>: Telecommunication networks, internet infrastructure, satellite communication.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Water and wastewater</b>: Water treatment plants, sewage networks.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Healthcare</b>: Hospitals, emergency services, medical facilities.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Finance</b>: Banks, stock exchanges, payment processing infrastructure.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Government facilities</b>: Government offices, defence installations, data centres.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Food and agriculture</b>: Food production, warehouses, food distribution.</span></li></ol><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Apparently almost the entire infrastructure is to be considered as critical infrastructure. Its failure or impairment can have serious consequences.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Governments, businesses, and international organizations officially see the security and protection of critical infrastructure as a priority to ensure a society's well-being. This is already inadequately achieved in peacetime. We are far from comprehensive resilience, i.e., resistance to threats.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">That the critical infrastructure of advanced industrial nations can still be effectively protected in a war scenario on their own territory is simply unimaginable. Our globally interconnected economy is easily vulnerable, our global supply chains sensitive and prone to disruption, our worldwide communication strands easy to interrupt.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Threats to the global supply chains we depend on are already diverse. They range from natural disasters to political instability to technical failures and pandemics. Some of the main threats are:</span></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">Natural disasters like earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and wildfires can block transport routes, damage infrastructure, and disrupt trade. Hurricanes like Katrina and Sandy, earthquakes like the Tōhoku earthquake in Japan, and wildfires in Australia and California have blocked transport routes, damaged infrastructure, and destroyed production facilities.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">Pandemics, health crises, disease outbreaks can lead to supply chain disruptions, as we recently experienced with the COVID-19 pandemic. It led to production shutdowns, factory closures, transport interruptions, labour shortages, and a huge increase in demand for certain products like medical equipment and household goods.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">Cyberattacks, whether criminal or politically motivated hacker attacks on information systems and logistics networks, can disrupt the operation of supply chains, cause data breaches, and compromise security.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">Political instability, local conflicts, terrorism, political unrest, and trade disputes can lead to border closures, sanctions, trade embargoes, and other restrictions.</span></li></ol><p></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So, the trade disputes between the USA and China and other countries led to tariff increases, trade embargoes, and uncertainties that affected international trade.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">A recent attack on the German railway system severely disrupted the already fragile train traffic between Berlin and Hamburg.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">On February 24, 2024, at least three undersea cables off the coast of Yemen were severed, disrupting worldwide internet and telephone connections. The cable Asia-Africa-Europe 1 (AAE1), also used by the German internet node operator DE-CIX, was cut. It is suspected that a cargo ship sunk by local Houthi rebels during wartime conflict severed the cable.</span></p></blockquote><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Conflicts are listed here only incidentally last. In reality, they can have the most significant impact. Even below the threshold of a large war, we thus have to accept massive economic losses and decreases in prosperity and quality of life, but also in human lives. The impairments in conflicts where one warring party can use clear military superiority remain limited, affecting the defeated or those uninvolved in the conflict or even taken as a price for victory.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The threshold to a large war can easily be crossed, whether intentionally or from an unforeseen "compulsion." Such a conflict with global implications has been looming for a quarter of a century; since China and the USA lost their common enemy with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the USA felt threatened by China in its role as a global hegemon.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This increasingly escalating conflict between the two countries already shows many signs of a Cold War. The parallels to the situation before World War I, when the then unchallenged world power England felt threatened by the rising, united Germany, are unmistakable. Just as easily as back then and without further conscious decisions, the "cold" war can become a "hot" war - the 3rd World War.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Even if this war, out of fear of mutual total annihilation, were fought exclusively with so-called "conventional" weapons, we must expect the collapse of entire economic spaces and civil society in larger geographical areas, associated with a very significant decrease in population. No one has yet explained how and for whom such a conflict could still "pay off."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The basic assumption that it would remain at "conventional" engagements could just as easily prove erroneous. Before a nuclear power admits defeat, it might indeed resort to the extreme, following the motto: "If we must go down, then please with a big bang. And then we'll take as many with us into our grave as we can."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In this context, Albert Einstein is often quoted as saying, "<span style="color: #2b00fe;"><i>I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones</i>.</span>"</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Can we really still afford waging wars?</span></p><div><br /></div>Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-14180566682803524652024-03-18T12:07:00.000+01:002024-03-18T12:07:35.340+01:00Können wir uns Kriege noch leisten?<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAlGsmkLzhq2KIy7doPl6wdt9uQD7p3L3iO2kPBsL0k5C6VS1QRycyqsVOpkQIuZPCnQPMGJdSr2nyFDhPpOG0pEswheHLOO4vj3s5N423M8KYZjJBliHH5t4TiO6NBVAFlWRoltZQ_bLbihCn77NQl0Lz9Qb4LWTdT6msNfgHzfjHsMVhNMoc/s2928/Baluschek_Der_Krieg_Tafel_10_Bild.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1971" data-original-width="2928" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAlGsmkLzhq2KIy7doPl6wdt9uQD7p3L3iO2kPBsL0k5C6VS1QRycyqsVOpkQIuZPCnQPMGJdSr2nyFDhPpOG0pEswheHLOO4vj3s5N423M8KYZjJBliHH5t4TiO6NBVAFlWRoltZQ_bLbihCn77NQl0Lz9Qb4LWTdT6msNfgHzfjHsMVhNMoc/w640-h430/Baluschek_Der_Krieg_Tafel_10_Bild.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br />„<i><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Jeder, der einmal einem auf dem Schlachtfeld sterbenden Soldaten in die glasigen Augen geschaut hat, denkt künftig zweimal nach, bevor er einen Krieg beginnt</span></i>. “</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Diese Worte werden Otto von Bismarck zugeschrieben. Aufgrund seiner politischen Härte, Entschlossenheit und Durchsetzungsfähigkeit während seiner Amtszeit als Ministerpräsident von Preußen und später als erster Reichskanzler des Deutschen Reiches erhielt er auch den Beinamen der "Eiserne Kanzler". Ihm kann mithin kein besonderer Hang zur Sentimentalität nachgesagt werden. Machtpolitik war ihm kein Fremdwort. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Die heutige Hausherrin im Auswärtigen Amt, das von Bismarck gegründet wurde, Außenministerin Annalena Baerbock, die das sogenannte Bismarck-Zimmer <a href="https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/annalena-baerbock-auswaertiges-amt-benennt-bismarck-zimmer-um-a-4a36979d-c276-4c6b-9f24-4da5890b6b7e" target="_blank">umbenannt </a>und ein den Reichskanzler darstellendes Gemälde abhängen ließ, gibt sich da deutlich kriegerischer. Dass unsere Top-Diplomatin etwas undiplomatisch Deutschland bereits im <a href="https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/annalena-baerbock-kriegserklaerung-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html" target="_blank">Krieg mit Russland</a> sah, konnte noch als Versprecher abgetan werden.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Dennoch mehren sich die Signale, die darauf hindeuten, dass wir uns möglicherweise bereits wieder in einer Vorkriegszeit befinden. Auf einer nichtöffentlichen Sicherheitskonferenz im November 2023 hatte ein ehemaliger hoher Europa-Beamter gar die Frage gestellt, ob der dritte Weltkrieg möglicherweise bereits begonnen hätte. Denn auch in den zweiten Weltkrieg seien nicht alle Kriegsparteien gleichzeitig eingetreten. Der unausgesprochene Bezug auf den Multinationenkonflikt direkt vor unserer Haustür, für den niemand eine Hoffnung auf ein baldiges Ende hegt, der andererseits ein enormes Eskalationspotential hat, wurde von allen Anwesenden verstanden.</span></p><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Die große Kriegsbegeisterung</span></h3><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Die Kriegs Begeisterung der politischen Klasse durch fast alle Parteien Deutschlands und großer Teile Europas ist unverkennbar. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">So <a href="https://table.media/europe/analyse/eu-kommission-will-paradigmenwechsel-hin-zur-kriegswirtschaft/" target="_blank">vermeldete </a>der Newsletter Europe.Table am 28. Februar 2024 eine neue Strategie der EU-Kommission, einen „Paradigmenwechsel hin zur Kriegswirtschaft“.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Kurz zuvor hatte der französische Präsident Emmanuel Macron <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/26/macron-holds-meeting-in-paris-to-rally-european-support-for-ukraine" target="_blank">erklärt</a>, dass die Entsendung westlicher Bodentruppen in die Ukraine nicht "ausgeschlossen" werden könne. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Ausgemachte Scharfmacher gibt es mit Anton Hofreiter sowohl in der ehemals pazifistisch orientierten Partei der „BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN“, der beispielsweise die Lieferung von Offensiv-Waffen and die Ukraine <a href="https://taz.de/Hofreiter-ueber-Scholz-Ukraine-Politik/!5995425/" target="_blank">befürwortet</a>. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Auch die FDP-Verteidigungspolitikerin Strack-Zimmermann <a href="https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ukraine-marie-agnes-strack-zimmermann-fdp-fassungslos-ueber-olaf-scholz-taurus-nein-a-7fe2c61b-53a6-4875-9391-04c1f2827146" target="_blank">zeigt sich</a> „fassungslos“, als der deutsche Bundeskanzler einer Lieferung von Taurus-Marschflugkörpern an die Ukraine eine klare Absage erteilt. Auch von anderen Parteien kommt Kritik</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Natürlich nicht nur in Europa: Anfang 2023 ermunterte beispielsweise Victoria Nuland, die dritthöchste US-Diplomatin, die ukrainischen Streitkräfte dazu, weiterhin russische Militärstützpunkte auf der Krim anzugreifen - auf Kosten der ukrainischen und russischen Bevölkerung. Selbst der ehemalige US-Präsident Donald Trump nannte sie daraufhin eine Kriegstreiberin, die dazu beitrüge, dass wir einem Dritten Weltkrieg noch nie so nah wären, wie jetzt.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Es fällt auf, dass sich im Wesentlichen Personen für eine weitere Eskalation dieses Stellvertreterkriegs stark machen, die selber keinen Krieg erlebt haben. Sie können sich vermutlich keine Vorstellung von den damit einhergehenden Schrecken machen. Das sind Schrecken, die sich tief in die Seelen aller Betroffenen eingraben, diese Menschen ihr Leben lang <a href="https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/traumavererbung-bis-ins-vierte-glied-traumata-praegen-auch-100.html" target="_blank">nachhaltig belasten</a> und über Generationen weitergegeben werden.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Oder, wie Harald Kujat, General a.D. der deutschen Luftwaffe, ehemaliger Generalinspekteur der Bundeswehr und Vorsitzender des Nato-Militärausschusses die Debatten, die hierzulande über Waffen geführt werden, <a href="https://www.thepioneer.de/originals/thepioneer-briefing-business-class-edition/briefings/putin-vs-hitler-ist-scholz-ein-neuer-chamberlain" target="_blank">beschreibt</a>:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">"<i><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Da sind Leute im deutschen Fernsehen mit zehn Minuten Redezeit, die den Bundeskanzler der Lüge bezichtigen, die nicht mal ein Gewehr von einer Gurke unterscheiden können</span></i>."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Auch ein weiteres Muster fällt ins Auge, das den meisten Kriegen zu eigen ist: Die Mehrheit der Deutschen lehnt Taurus-Lieferung an die Ukraine ab, <a href="https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2024-03/taurus-lieferung-umfrage-deutschland" target="_blank">schrieb </a>die Die ZEIT am 7. März 2024.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Laut einer Umfrage sind danach 62 Prozent der Deutschen in Sorge, dass Deutschland durch die Lieferung von Taurus-Raketen direkt in den Krieg Russlands gegen die Ukraine hineingezogen werden könnte. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Es ist ein schon oft beobachtetes Phänomen, das die Beteiligung an Kriegen, in den Völkern weniger populär war und ist als bei deren Führern. Intuitiv ist diese Zurückhaltung unmittelbar nachvollziehbar: Es ist schließlich der sprichwörtliche kleine Mann aus dem Volke, der dafür im Zweifel seine körperliche und mentale Gesundheit oder gar sein Leben einsetzen muss, oft das seiner Familie ebenso. Es sind nicht die Führer, die ihren Kopf hinhalten müssen.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Wie der angesehene amerikanische Politikwissenschaftler und international renommierte Experte für Internationale Beziehungen John Mearsheimer in seinem Buch "<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/9140160-why-leaders-lie" target="_blank">Why Leaders Lie</a>: The Truth About Lying in International Politics" darlegt, belügen die gewählten Führer von Staaten ihr Volk oft, um es für eine Unterstützung eines Kriegseintritts zu gewinnen.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Danach sind Lügen ein integrales Element der internationalen Politik: Mearsheimer argumentiert, dass Lügen ein häufiges und notwendiges Mittel sind, das von politischen Führern verwendet wird, um ihre Ziele zu erreichen und die Interessen ihres Landes zu verteidigen. Er betont auch, dass Lügen oft als legitim angesehen werden, wenn sie im nationalen Interesse liegen.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Haben wir unsere Volksvertreter dafür gewählt, dass sie uns „zu unserem Besten“ belügen? Demokratie hatte ich mir einmal anders vorgestellt. Dass speziell in Krisenzeiten eine transparente Regierungsarbeit behindert und damit ein vertrauensvolles Verhältnis zwischen Volk und Volksvertreter beschädigt werden musste der Deutsche Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz unlängst erfahren, als er nach einem Bürgerdialog von NATO-Partnern des Geheimnisverrats <a href="https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/berlin-playbook/britische-emporung-uber-scholz/" target="_blank">bezichtigt </a>wurde.</span></p><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Lohnen sich Kriege eigentlich?</span></h3><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Im Jahr 1911 veröffentlichte Norman Angell, Friedensnobelpreisträger von 1933, ein bahnbrechendes Buch mit dem Titel "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion" target="_blank">The Great Illusion</a>". Darin vertrat er die Ansicht, dass Krieg wirtschaftlich sinnlos geworden sei. Er glaubte, dass die Verflechtung der Nationen durch Handel und Finanzen große Konflikte verhindern würde.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Seine zentrale These lautete, dass die Nationen keinen wirtschaftlichen Nutzen aus einem Krieg ziehen würden, da er den globalen Handel und Wohlstand stören würde. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Angell ausdrücklich erklärte nie, dass Krieg unmöglich geworden sei. Seine Ideen trafen damals einen Nerv der Zeit und hatten einen starken Einfluss auf spätere Diskussionen über Krieg, Frieden und Konflikte. Seinen Argumenten lag die unausgesprochene fundamentale Annahme eines „ritterlichen“ Umgangs der Sieger mit den besiegten Völkern zugrunde. Diese Annahme hatte ihre Wurzeln in der Westfälische Friedensordnung, die im Jahr 1648 durch die beiden Friedensverträge von Münster und Osnabrück geschaffen wurde und etwa 150 Jahre lang Bestand hatte. Vergessen waren offenbar die früheren, archaischeren Formen des Kriegs von Volk gegen Volk, bei dem nur eines überleben konnte und der Genozid das logische Ergebnis war.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Später kamen dem idealistischen Pazifisten Norman Angell selber Zweifel und als 12 Außenminister aus Kanada, den Vereinigten Staaten und zehn westeuropäischen Staaten am 4. April 1949 in Washington zusammenkamen um den Nordatlantikvertrag zu unterzeichnen und damit die NATO zu gründen, unterstützte, der inzwischen zum Sir geadelte, Norman Angell trotz seines pazifistischen Hintergrunds den kollektiven Verteidigungspakt.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Kriege scheinen sich offenbar nach wie vor zu lohnen. Und wie wiederum John Mearsheimer in seinem vielzitierten Buch „<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tragedy_of_Great_Power_Politics" target="_blank">The Tragedy of great Power Politics</a>“ in seiner geschlossenen Logik der Großmachtpolitik schließt, sind sie sogar gelegentlich unvermeidlich.</span></p><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Aber ist der Schaden nicht größer als der Nutzen?</span></h3><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Und dann ist da noch die größte aller technologischen Bedrohungen. Martin Hellman, Kryptografie-Koryphäe, Miterfinder des Diffie-Hellman-Algorithmus, Turing-Preisträger und Vorkämpfer für den Weltfrieden meint: Wenn wir weiterhin Kriege führen, ist es nur eine Frage der Zeit, bis Atombomben explodieren.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Dabei hieß es doch immer, dass die "Mutually Assured Destruction" (MAD), also die gegenseitig gesicherte Vernichtung, bei der Supermächte ein ausreichendes Arsenal an Atomwaffen besitzen, um sich gegenseitig vollständig zu vernichten, ausreichend Abschreckungspotential bieten würde, und zu Stabilität zu führen. Tastsächlich hatte die nukleare Abschreckungstheorie während des Kalten Krieges zwischen den USA und der Sowjetunion, zu einer Art Gleichgewicht des Schreckens geführt. Ohne die MAD-Drohung jedoch wurden diesen Massenvernichtungswaffen hingegen bedenkenlos eingesetzt, wie die Atombombenabwürfe auf Hiroshima und Nagasaki im August 1945 beweisen, die zu einem unmittelbaren Verlust von etwa 200.000 Menschenleben führten.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">MAD mag Atomkriege verhindert haben. Es wurden jedoch munter weiter Kriege geführt, halt unterhalb der Schwelle des Einsatzes von Nuklearwaffen. Allein die Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika haben angeblich seit ihrer Gründung am 4. Juli 1776 nur 13 Jahre ohne Krieg verbracht. Durch zwei große Ozeane geschützt und im Norden, wie im Süden von weit unterlegenen Staaten begrenzt, haben sie zum letzten Mal am 7. Dezember 1941 mit dem Angriff der japanischen Streitkräfte auf Pearl Harbor, Hawaii Krieg mit einem anderen Staat auf ihrem eigenen Staatsgebiet erlebt. Davor war es zum letzten Mal während des Kriegs von 1812 zwischen den USA und Großbritannien und seinen Kolonien.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Die Verlockung, Kriege zu führen ist offenbar dann groß, wenn das eigene Territorium davon nicht beeinträchtigt wird. Es fällt schwer, so zynisch nüchtern zu argumentieren, aber überwiegt dann der Nutzen über den möglichen Schaden? Zumindest für die Waffenindustrie scheint das in dem oben angeführten Beispiel USA zuzutreffen. Rüstungskonzerne aus den USA haben den bei Weitem größten Weltmarktanteil. Vierzig Unternehmen aus den Vereinigten Staaten finden sich in der <a href="https://www.sipri.org/" target="_blank">Sipri</a>-Liste der weltgrößten Waffenhersteller. Zusammen erwirtschafteten sie 2021 fast 300 Milliarden US-Dollar, mithin etwa die Hälfte der weltweiten Umsätze im Waffengeschäft. Für einige Beteiligte lohnt es sich also.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Das gilt auch für Kriege, in deren Folge Gebiete annektiert werden, die strategischen Nutzen versprechen, sei es militärischer oder wirtschaftlicher Natur. Völkermord ist kein Ziel, zumindest kein erklärtes Ziel mehr, wohl aber ein tolerierter Kollateralschaden. Ethische Säuberungen als Ergebnis von Kriegen werden munter weiter betrieben. Ob es unser NATO-Partner Turkey in Syrien, oder dessen verbündetes Regime in Aserbaidschan mit den eroberten Armeniern betreibt, Tadel dafür muss nur befürchten, wer aus anderen Gründen in Ungnade fällt. Auch hier lohnen sich Kriege also noch, wenn sie sorgfältig dimensioniert, getarnt, gerechtfertigt und zum geeigneten Zeitpunkt durchgeführt werden.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Aber stimmt das auch noch für größere Konflikte, solche bei denen ein Angreifer mit weltweiten Beeinträchtigungen oder gar mit Schäden auf dem eigenen Territorium zu rechnen hat? Sind wir nicht inzwischen auf eine störanfällige globale Infrastruktur angewiesen, deren Ausfall dem zivilen, bürgerlichen Leben, wie wir es kennen ein Ende bereiten würde?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Im Februar 2024 gab es eine aufgeregte Diskussion über eine Anti-Satelliten-Weltraumwaffe, die Russland angeblich entwickelt, und die möglicherweise den erdnahen Orbit für alle zerstören könnte.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">"<i><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Wenn es jemand wagt, eine Atomwaffe in der hohen Atmosphäre oder sogar im Weltraum zu zünden, wäre das mehr oder weniger das Ende der Nutzbarkeit dieser globalen Gemeinschaftsgüter</span></i>", <a href="https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article250153382/Nuklearwaffen-Zuendung-im-Weltraum-wuerde-das-Leben-so-wie-wir-es-kennen-zerstoeren.html" target="_blank">sagte dazu Michael Traut</a>, der für das militärische Raumfahrtkommando Deutschlands zuständige Generalmajor, dazu laut Politico Europe. "<i><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Niemand würde eine solche Aktion überleben - kein Satellit, weder chinesisch noch russisch, weder amerikanisch noch europäisch</span></i>." In einem solchen Fall würden Satelliten, die jetzt auf einer Umlaufbahn ihre Kreise um die Erde ziehen, zu Schrott werden. Es würden dichte Trümmerfelder entstehen. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Jedoch hängt der bürgerliche Alltag der Bevölkerung auf der Erde mit Telefon, Computer, Navigation, Fernsehen, Energieversorgung und den davon abhängigen Diensten seinerseits von funktionierenden Satelliten ab. Satelliten zählen damit zur globalen, kritischen Infrastruktur. Sie sind aktuell ungeschützt, vielleicht auch gar nicht schützbar.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Aber wie sieht es mit der kritischen Infrastruktur auf der Erde aus, also mit den Einrichtungen, Systemen, Dienstleistungen und Netzwerken, die für das Funktionieren einer Gesellschaft von entscheidender Bedeutung – eben kritisch - sind. Typischerweise umfassen sie:</span></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Energieversorgung</b>: Kraftwerke, Stromnetze, Öl- und Gasleitungen.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Transportwesen</b>: Flughäfen, Häfen, Eisenbahnen, Straßen und Brücken.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Kommunikation</b>: Telekommunikationsnetze, Internetinfrastruktur, Satellitenkommunikation.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Wasserver- und Abwasserentsorgung</b>: Wasseraufbereitungsanlagen, Kanalisationsnetze.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Gesundheitswesen</b>: Krankenhäuser, Notfalldienste, medizinische Versorgungseinrichtungen.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Finanzwesen</b>: Banken, Börsen, Zahlungsabwicklungsinfrastruktur.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Regierungseinrichtungen</b>: Regierungsbüros, Verteidigungsanlagen, Rechenzentren.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Ernährung und Landwirtschaft</b>: Lebensmittelproduktion, Lagerhäuser, Lebensmittelverteilung.</span></li></ol><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Kritisch ist offenbar fast die gesamte Infrastruktur. Ihr Ausfall oder eine Beeinträchtigung kann schwerwiegende Folgen haben.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Regierungen, Unternehmen und internationalen Organisationen sehen mithin offiziell Sicherung und der Schutz der kritischen Infrastruktur als vorrangig an, um das Wohlergehen einer Gesellschaft zu gewährleisten. Das gelingt schon in Friedenzeiten nur unzulänglich. Vor einer durchgehend hinlänglichen Resilienz, also Widerstandsfähigkeit gegenüber Bedrohungen sind wir weit entfernt. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Dass die kritische Infrastruktur hochentwickelter Industrienationen in einem Kriegsszenarien auf eigenem Territorium noch wirksam zu schützen sein kann, ist schlicht nicht vorstellbar. Unsere global vernetzte Wirtschaft ist leicht verletzlich, unsere weltweiten Lieferketten sensibel und störanfällig, unsere weltweiten Kommunikationsstränge leicht zu unterbrechen.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Allein die Bedrohungen für die globalen Lieferketten, von denen wir so abhängig sind, sind bereits vielfältig. Sie reichen von Naturkatastrophen über politische Instabilität bis hin zu technischem Versagen und Pandemien. Einige der Hauptbedrohungen sind:</span></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">Naturkatastrophen wie Erdbeben, Wirbelstürme, Überschwemmungen und Waldbrände können Transportwege blockieren, Infrastruktur beschädigen und den Handel beeinträchtigen. So haben Wirbelstürme wie Hurricane Katrina und Superstorm Sandy, Erdbeben wie das Tōhoku-Erdbeben in Japan und Waldbrände wie in Australien und Kalifornien Transportwege blockiert, Infrastruktur beschädigt und Produktionsanlagen zerstört.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">Pandemien, Gesundheitskrisen, Ausbrüche von Krankheiten können zu Unterbrechungen von Lieferketten führen, wie wir es mit der wie COVID-19 Pandemie vor Kurzem erst erlebt haben. Sie führte zu Produktionsausfällen, Werksschließungen, Transportunterbrechungen, Arbeitskräftemangel und einem enormen Anstieg der Nachfrage nach bestimmten Produkten wie medizinischer Ausrüstung und Haushaltswaren.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">Cyberangriffe, egal ob krimineller Natur oder als politisch motivierte Hackerangriffe auf Informationssysteme und Logistiknetzwerke können den Betrieb von Lieferketten stören, Datenlecks verursachen und die Sicherheit gefährden.<br /><br /></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">Politische Instabilität, lokale Konflikte, Terrorismus, politische Unruhen und Handelsstreitigkeiten können zu Grenzschließungen, Sanktionen, Handelsembargos und anderen Einschränkungen führen. </span></li></ol><p></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">So führten die Handelsstreitigkeiten zwischen den USA und China sowie anderen Ländern zu Zollerhöhungen, Handelsembargos und Unsicherheiten, die den internationalen Handel beeinträchtigten.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Bei einem Anschlag auf die Deutsche Bahn waren zuletzt an drei Stellen im Hamburger Stadtgebiet Kabelschächte an Bahnstrecken in Brand gesetzt worden. Dazu tauchte dann auf einer linksradikalen Plattform ein Bekennerschreiben auf. Der Sabotageakt störte den ohnehin sehr fragilen Zugverkehr zwischen Berlin und Hamburg massiv.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Am 24. Februar 2024 wurden vor der Küste Jemens mindestens drei Unterseekabel gekappt, die für weltweite Internet- und Telefonverbindungen genutzt werden. Durchtrennt wurde etwa das Kabel Asia-Africa-Europe 1 (AAE1), das auch vom deutschen Internetknoten-Betreiber DE-CIX verwendet wird. Es wird vermutet, dass ein im Zuge kriegerischer Auseinandersetzungen von den lokalen Huthi-Rebellen versenktes Frachtschiff das Seekabel durchtrennt hat.</span></p></blockquote><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Konflikte stehen hier nur zufällig an letzter Stelle. Tatsächlich können sie die weitaus größten Auswirkungen haben. Bereits unterhalb der Schwelle eines großen Kriegs haben wir also massive wirtschaftliche und Verluste an Wohlstand und Lebensqualität, aber auch von Menschenleben hinzunehmen. Die Beeinträchtigungen in Konflikten, bei der eine Kriegspartei eine deutliche militärische Überlegenheit nutzen kann, begrenzt bleiben, den Besiegten oder am Konflikt Unbeteiligte treffen oder gar als Preis für den Sieg in Kauf genommen werden. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Die Schwelle zu einem großen Krieg kann – ob mit Vorsatz oder aus einer unvorhergesehenen „Zwangslage“ heraus, auch leicht überschritten werden. Ein solcher Konflikt mit globalen Auswirkungen bahnt sich seit einem Vierteljahrhundert an; seit China und den USA mit dem Zusammenbruch der Sowjetunion der gemeinsame Gegner abhanden gekommen war und sich die USA eher von China in ihrer Rolle als Welt-Hegemon bedroht sehen. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Dieser sich zunehmend weiter verschärfende Konflikt zwischen den beiden Ländern weist bereits jetzt viele Anzeichen eines Kalten Krieges auf. Die Parallelen zur Situation vor dem ersten Weltkrieg, als sich die damals unangefochtene Weltmacht England durch das aufsteigende, geeinte Deutschland bedroht fühlte, sind unübersehbar. Ebenso leicht wie damals und ohne weitere bewusste Entscheidungen kann der „kalte“ Krieg zu einem „heißen“ Krieg werden – eben dem 3. Weltkrieg. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Auch wenn dieser aus Furcht vor der wechselseitigen totalen Auslöschung ausschließlich mit sogenannte „konventionellen“ Waffen ausgetragen werden sollte, müssen wir mit dem Zusammenbruch ganzer Wirtschaftsräume und der Zivilgesellschaft größerer geographischer Bereiche rechnen, verbunden mit einem sehr deutlichen Rückgang der Bevölkerungszahl. Niemand hat bisher erklärt, wie und für wen sich ein solcher Konflikt noch „lohnen“ könnte.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Die Grundannahme aber, dass es dank MAD bei „konventionellen“ Waffengängen bliebe, könnte sich ebensoleicht als irrig herausstellen. Bevor sich eine Atommacht geschlagen gibt, wird sie möglicherweise eben doch zum Äußersten greifen, nach dem Motto: „Wenn wir schon untergehen müssen, dann bitte mit einem großen Knall. Und dann nehmen wir so viele mit in unser Grab, wie wir können.“</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Dazu passend wird Albert Einstein gern mit dem Ausspruch zitiert: "<i><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Ich weiß nicht, mit welchen Waffen der Dritte Weltkrieg ausgetragen wird, aber der Vierte Weltkrieg wird mit Stöcken und Steinen ausgetragen.</span></i>"</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Können wir uns Kriege also wirklich noch leisten?</span></p><div><br /></div>Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-37007673211214325342024-02-17T16:23:00.001+01:002024-02-17T16:23:04.928+01:00Review: Was Politiker Nicht Sagen
<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/162272070" style="float: left; padding-right: 20px"><img src="https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1685014055l/162272070._SX98_.jpg" border="0" alt="Was Politiker Nicht Sagen" /></a>
<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/162272070">Was Politiker Nicht Sagen</a> by <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/1079901">Gregor Gysi</a><br/>
My rating: <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/6270131796">4 of 5 stars</a>
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<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/6270131796">View all my reviews</a>
Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-6856207200474576932024-02-05T16:57:00.001+01:002024-02-08T16:34:08.206+01:00Artificial Intelligence vs. Human Stupidity<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9ywaFt0fQ1d16ogg6nJ4HFOR7OcYeELlnp-YgpITaDrUf1h0vjGljVV6x7UfgGNBUDPC5br0IdcHsAEYyiMT7guaIl3VaH_UsLj1apCOt_FhNVqaxAPIYK1LVTeKhQzpJsrxS4C79wnJHsPVJdw7psrU8_bBXQUu7T-vZO7mT2WSsiwnnxFpC/s1360/2024-02-05_Artificial%20Intelligence%20vs.%20Human%20Stupidity_0.01.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="1360" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9ywaFt0fQ1d16ogg6nJ4HFOR7OcYeELlnp-YgpITaDrUf1h0vjGljVV6x7UfgGNBUDPC5br0IdcHsAEYyiMT7guaIl3VaH_UsLj1apCOt_FhNVqaxAPIYK1LVTeKhQzpJsrxS4C79wnJHsPVJdw7psrU8_bBXQUu7T-vZO7mT2WSsiwnnxFpC/w640-h320/2024-02-05_Artificial%20Intelligence%20vs.%20Human%20Stupidity_0.01.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nouriel Robini aka. “Mr. Doom” did it again – and again. Asked for his takeaways from this year’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos he <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-hype-and-potential-in-a-world-of-rising-mega-threats-by-nouriel-roubini-2024-02" target="_blank">claimed </a>that the world is facing mounting threats and already existing problems, but still heading to the wrong direction.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">“<span style="color: #2b00fe;">We must bear in mind that our world is dominated far more by human stupidity than by AI. The proliferation of megathreats – each an element in the broader “polycrisis” – confirms that our politics are too dysfunctional, and our policies too misguided, to address even the most serious and obvious risks to our future. These include climate change, which will have huge economic costs; failed states, which will make waves of climate refugees even larger; and recurrent, virulent pandemics that could be even more economically damaging than COVID-19.</span></span></i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: verdana;">Making matters worse, dangerous geopolitical rivalries are evolving into new cold wars – such as between the United States and China – and into potentially explosive hot wars, like those in Ukraine and the Middle East. Around the world, rising income and wealth inequality, partly driven by hyper-globalization and labour-saving technologies, have triggered a backlash against liberal democracy, creating opportunities for populist, autocratic, and violent political movements.</span></i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Unsustainable levels of private and public debt threaten to precipitate debt and financial crises, and we may yet see a return of inflation and stagflationary negative aggregate supply shocks. The broader trend globally is toward protectionism, de-globalization, de-coupling, and de-dollarization.</span>”</span></i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The dominant topic at the WEF, as expected, was artificial intelligence and its potential for both positive and negative impacts. But rather than perceiving AI as a useful tool to help solving the long list above, it was itself added to the list, whereas the list itself seemed to be accepted as a unalterable fate. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Can’t we make good use of Artificial Intelligence to counter Human Stupidity?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In the following her lists a few of the scientific and technological domain where AI could unfold its potentially beneficial influence. All agreeable, however farfetched a few of them may be. He e.g. expresses hope that such utopian sources of energy supply like nuclear fusion reactors could become more science than fiction. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In this context we should remind ourselves that any such reactor be it conventional or futuristic will just produce heat at first. That heat might subsequently be transformed to other forms and shapes of energy, electric, chemical and the like. If it is just that, we should not forget that we are already residing on one big reactor. There is no need to create a new one. It is just a few kilometres away of each consumer. Only those few kilometres are measured vertically: It our good old earth, which’s thin crust we are dwelling on. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We have to admit that taking our backward drilling technologies tapping from that vast potential is still rather costly – but by far cheaper than any nuclear technology. In addition, it would be in steady supply, relatively safe and rather local.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Maybe this is a topic where AI could enlighten us further, providing a counterweight to our human stupidity.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Closing a <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-ai-controversy-horst-walther%3FtrackingId=OqWpjwuGRmAt1J6Fevn7Yg%253D%253D/?trackingId=OqWpjwuGRmAt1J6Fevn7Yg%3D%3D" target="_blank">Blog Post</a> dating back January 2020 I once stated:</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">“<span style="color: #2b00fe;">One idea, which crossed my mind recently, has not yet been discussed widely. It might well be one of those ‘other factors we have not even thought of yet’ determining our future direction. Couldn’t it well be that a Super-AI, once created and enjoying an independent life, be the saviour, rather than the terminator of humanity? Saving Humanity from itself in the end?</span></span></i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: verdana;">Some specially gifted humans usually only at the end of their lives, while summing up their life long experiences are endowed, with some insight, which we call wisdom. So why should it be beyond imagination that an artificial super-intelligence, after it has left all competition behind and won all battles, after it is the only one left and unchallenged, reaches a certain wisdom of old age and, very much like the overlords in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_C._Clarke" target="_blank">Arthur C. Clarkes</a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Childhood%27s_End" target="_blank">Childhood's End</a>, orders the world in such a way that it will be able to live permanently in peace and prosperity - humanity and AI?</span></i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">Will this then result in AW (<a href="https://www.computer.org/csdl/magazine/co/2019/10/08848132/1dAq1H3HKU0" target="_blank">Artificial Wisdom</a>)?</span>”</span></i></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nouriel in a similar manner concludes – with some caveat however:</span></p><p><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">"<span style="color: #2b00fe;">These and many other technologies could change the world for the better, but only if we can manage their negative side effects, and only if they are used to resolve all the megathreats we face. One hopes that artificial intelligence someday will overcome human stupidity. But it will never get the chance if we destroy ourselves first.</span>"</span></i></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">A further elaboration on this exotic thought is due, however deserves a publication on its own. So, I may take it a a self-imposed obligation.</span></p><p><br /></p>Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-60811475049466190502024-01-12T19:00:00.003+01:002024-01-12T19:00:54.382+01:00Review: Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy
<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/77920462" style="float: left; padding-right: 20px"><img src="https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1675641009l/77920462._SX98_.jpg" border="0" alt="Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy" /></a>
<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/77920462">Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy</a> by <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/7201563">Henry Farrell</a><br/>
My rating: <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/6053726684">5 of 5 stars</a>
<br /><br />
I consider “Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy” by Henry Farrel and Abraham Newman to be a must-read for every politically interested citizen. I highly recommend reading it. This insightful contribution places great emphasis on providing evidence for what was previously the realm of assumptions and suspicions.<br /><br />Sometimes governments have taken and are taking strange turns and acceding to our big brother's demands when previously they had vehemently refused to do so. Why are some countries desperately trying to de-dollarize when this still seems to be a futile endeavor? Why is China straining its vast resources to build a parallel grassroots economy while we appear to be operating in a free trade world order?<br /><br />After reading all the chapters of the groundbreaking analysis, many seemingly unrelated pieces fall into place, forming a great picture of how our world is ordered by mainly invisible forces. This image shows great power politics (also known as real politics or offensive real politics) at its best - the pure essence of it.<br /><br />I can fully recommend this well-researched, logically structured and clearly written book with only minor reservations. My slight hesitation concerns the non-analytical part: the final chapter offers recommendations on how the United States should deal with the apparatus it has built to dominate and control the global economy.<br /><br />The proposals essentially amount to maintaining the entire machinery of economic and therefore political power, but only using it for noble purposes, such as getting the world to take action to avert climate catastrophe.<br /><br />However, it is clear that this will not happen. Saul will not turn into Paul based on a recommendation alone. It is unlikely that the global hegemon, intoxicated with power, would voluntarily decide to undergo detoxification. The policies of the great powers always followed the same patterns everywhere and over the centuries.<br /><br />This small concession to the American public (after all, both authors understandably want to keep their jobs as university professors) is forgivable and in no way detracts from the immense value of this book.
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<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/6053726684">View all my reviews</a>
Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-57891190037712408442024-01-12T19:00:00.001+01:002024-01-12T19:00:20.649+01:00Review: Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century
<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/62927222" style="float: left; padding-right: 20px"><img src="https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1672013689l/62927222._SX98_.jpg" border="0" alt="Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century" /></a>
<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/62927222">Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century</a> by <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/3411880">Sergei Guriev</a><br/>
My rating: <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/5599934316">5 of 5 stars</a>
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Sergei Guriev’s “Spin Dictators” is an important and eye-opening contribution to the current political discourse. With great detail and a wealth of examples, he proves what previously seemed to me to be more of a plausible assumption, namely that dictators can also be elected "democratically", that in many cases no (brutal) violence is needed to officially rise up the popularity scale, eliminate one's rivals and still maintain good relations with real or supposedly liberal democracies.<br /><br />Sergei Guriev has thus done a great service to political discourse. Nevertheless, he has not only answered questions in his work. He has also raised new questions, or at least awakened them in me: Aren't these tools used by spin dictators also used in democracies, so that a party-duopoly has no new intruders to fear? In this way, a few incumbent families that have ruled for generations can take turns in exercising power without being effectively disturbed in their game. <br /><br />Is it not possible to create an inverse democracy in this way, which looks very much like a pure liberal democracy from the textbook, except that here it is not really the people who determine the government, but the alternating governments that form a suitable people. They would certainly have the tools to do so. So, do spin democracies also exist? Careful observation of the strange events on the other side of the Atlantic can certainly give rise to such suspicions.
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<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/5599934316">View all my reviews</a>
Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-42791374349073961792023-11-29T00:03:00.001+01:002023-11-29T00:08:01.574+01:00The Risk of De-Risking<h1><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM58uaG9mBf-7YVkX-cIQ-Gfl49Rcm91x5-bXCMed-LC4lACTTd_qIU8GoVxQ8utlMfBQYM_7OHy2Aheq37jatBplmMfbf0WltmyOzs8VCKQtSiR7J9VNQB1A5MJupfLKXIE7NmRpJylkbPrN96CJhYrshCbmZhpe0DSHF0EEjjEWPCbLA_Prt/s1636/The%20Sandman,%201966%20Salvador%20Dal%C3%AD.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1636" data-original-width="1296" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiM58uaG9mBf-7YVkX-cIQ-Gfl49Rcm91x5-bXCMed-LC4lACTTd_qIU8GoVxQ8utlMfBQYM_7OHy2Aheq37jatBplmMfbf0WltmyOzs8VCKQtSiR7J9VNQB1A5MJupfLKXIE7NmRpJylkbPrN96CJhYrshCbmZhpe0DSHF0EEjjEWPCbLA_Prt/w506-h640/The%20Sandman,%201966%20Salvador%20Dal%C3%AD.jpg" width="506" /></a></div><br />1. The evolution of De-Risking</h1>
<h2>Managing the risk of doing business</h2>
<p>Risk management is an essential task for all companies. So it should be for national governments. </p>
<p>Since, as every entrepreneur knows, risks and opportunities go hand in hand, it is not a question of simply minimising risks. There is rarely a risk-free business. </p>
<p>Rather, it is a question of determining one's own risk appetite and then deciding which risks to take. This is a completely natural ongoing task. </p>
<p>The merchants of Hamburg, to whom I feel a certain kinship, have been daring seafarers over the last few centuries, some of whom have made fortunes by taking risks, not just by avoiding them. </p>
<p>So why have the highest European authorities suddenly decided to reduce risk? Is there perhaps more to it than meets the eye? Is there perhaps a powerful undercurrent guiding our path that we do not have the strength or even the will to oppose? </p>
<p>So, let's take a step back and answer the questions: </p>
<ul>
<li>How did we get here? </li>
<li>What do we need to do now? </li>
<li>And how could this all develop further?</li>
</ul>
<h2>How De-risking Went Viral</h2>
<p>If diplomats were on TikTok, “de-risk” would be trending. The word has suddenly become popular among officials trying to loosen China’s grip on global supply chains but not cut ties entirely, with the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/20/g7-hiroshima-leaders-communique/" target="_blank">joint communiqué</a> from this weekend’s Group of 7 (G7) meeting making clear that the world’s largest democratic economies will now focus on “de-risking, not decoupling.” </p>
<p>The former is meant to sound more moderate, more surgical. It reflects an evolution in the discussion over how to deal with a rising, assertive China. But the word also has a vexing history in financial policy — and since the debate over de-risking will continue, we all might as well get up to speed. </p>
<p>“De-risking” relations with China caught on after <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_2063" target="_blank">a speech</a> by the European Commission president, <b>Ursula von der Leyen on March 30</b>, when she explained why she’d be traveling to Beijing with President Emmanuel Macron of France, and why Europe would not follow the calls for decoupling <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/05/business/china-trade-trump-jobs-decoupling.html">that began under President Trump</a>. </p>
<p>“<i>I believe it is neither viable — nor in Europe’s interest — to decouple from China</i>,” she said. “<i>Our relations are not black or white — and our response cannot be either. This is why we need to focus on de-risk — not decouple</i>.” </p>
<p>German and French diplomats later <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-10/france-and-germany-present-united-front-on-de-risking-china-ties?sref=HE8DhSEQ" target="_blank">pressed for the term</a> in international settings. Countries in Asia have also been telling American officials that decoupling would go too far in trying to unravel decades of successful economic integration. </p>
<p>In an interview, David Koh, Singapore’s cybersecurity commissioner, explained that the goal should be safety, with separation in some domains and cooperation in others. </p>
<p>“<i>I think we derive a huge amount of economic, social and safety value when systems are interoperable</i>,” he said. “<i>I want my plane to take off from Singapore and land safely in Beijing</i>.” </p>
<p>What worries globalized economies, he added, is “bifurcation,” with Chinese markets and manufacturing on one side, and American-approved supply chains on the other. </p>
<p>These arguments appear to have worked in de-risking’s Favour. On April 27, the U.S. national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, used the word in a major policy speech. </p>
<p>“<i>We are for de-risking, not for decoupling</i>,” he said. “De-risking fundamentally means having resilient, effective supply chains and ensuring we cannot be subjected to the coercion of any other country.” </p>
<p>On May 17, S. Jaishankar, the Indian foreign minister, <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/its-important-to-de-risk-global-economy-in-era-of-volatility-and-uncertainty-says-s-jaishankar/articleshow/100297319.cms" target="_blank">added his voice</a>, saying it was “<i>important to de-risk the global economy and yet to ensure that there is very responsible growth</i>.”</p>
<h2>What does the concept of "de-risking" contain?</h2>
<p>The concept of "de-risking" includes: </p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Diversification of supply chains:</strong><br />To avoid over-reliance on Chinese supplies, particularly highlighted by the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.<br /><br /></li>
<li><strong>Investment screening:</strong><br />The EU has been strengthening its mechanisms to screen foreign investments that could pose a risk to security or public order, including from China.<br /><br /></li>
<li><strong>Promotion of European values: </strong><br />Asserting the importance of human rights, labour standards, and environmental sustainability in its relations with China.<br /><br /></li>
<li><strong>Research and technological sovereignty: </strong><br />Encouraging the development of key technologies within the EU to reduce dependency on Chinese tech.<br /><br /></li>
<li><strong>Regulatory frameworks:</strong> <br />Strengthening data protection laws and other regulations to safeguard against potential economic coercion or espionage.</li>
</ul>
<p>While the term "de-coupling" suggests a separation, "de-risking" suggests making the relationship more robust and less vulnerable to external pressures. It's a nuanced shift that allows the EU to continue engaging with China economically, while also protecting and promoting its own strategic interests. The content of EU policy has indeed evolved to address the complex relationship with China, moving from a purely opportunity-focused engagement to one that also accounts for strategic competition and systemic differences. </p>
<h2>De-risking’s Sordid History</h2>
<p>Before it entered diplo-speak, de-risking had a long life in the response to American government sanctions against terrorism and money laundering, where it’s associated with overreaching. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1439" target="_blank">Treasury Department</a>, “<i>de-risking refers to financial institutions terminating or restricting business relationships indiscriminately with broad categories of customers rather than analysing and managing the specific risks associated with those customers</i>.” </p>
<p>In other words, de-risking — in its common usage, pre-April — carries negative connotations of unnecessary exclusion. </p>
<p>Human rights groups, for example, have <a href="https://www-cdn.oxfam.org/s3fs-public/file_attachments/rr-bank-de-risking-181115-en_0.pdf" target="_blank">condemned </a>how banks de-risk by denying service to aid agencies that work in places like Syria, fearing fines if an organization strays into a grey zone of providing aid to nations under sanction. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.coe.int/en/web/moneyval/implementation/de-risking" target="_blank">A 2015 report </a>from the Council of Europe offered an additional critique: “<i>De-risking can introduce further risk and opacity into the global financial system, as the termination of account relationships has the potential to force entities and persons into less regulated or unregulated channels.</i>” </p>
<p>That means de-risking leads to enforcement challenges: Dubious and legitimate actors move into darker corners and innovate, making their actions harder to manage. </p>
<h2>What the world thinks</h2>
<p>Countries in Asia have been telling American officials that decoupling would go too far in trying to unravel decades of successful economic integration. </p>
<p>To the Chinese government, unsurprisingly, “de-risking” isn’t much of an improvement. </p>
<p>“<i>There is a sense that ‘de-risking’ might be ‘decoupling’ in disguise,</i>” the state-run Global Times wrote in <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202304/1289958.shtml" target="_blank">a recent editorial </a>. It argued that Washington’s approach had not strayed from “its<i> unhealthy obsession with maintaining its dominant position in the world.</i>” </p>
<p>Some commentators in the region are also de-risk sceptics. “<i>A substantial change in policy?</i> “asked, a columnist for The South China Morning Post. “<i>I doubt it. It just sounds less belligerent; the underlying hostility remains.</i>” </p>
<p>To the Chinese government, unsurprisingly, “de-risking “isn’t much of an improvement. </p>
<h2>So, …</h2>
<p>De-risking requires tough, <a href="https://hbr.org/2021/05/the-strategic-challenges-of-decoupling" target="_blank">in-the-weeds decisions and solutions</a>. Which semiconductors must be kept out of China’s hands? Do all medical devices need to be produced somewhere other than China? What could TikTok do to firewall the risks of being owned by a Chinese company? </p>
<p>De-risking may feel more diplomatic than decoupling. “<i>Who doesn’t like reducing risk?</i>” said Bates Gill, director of the Asia Society’s Centre for China Analysis. “<i>It’s just rhetorically a much smarter way of thinking about what needs to be done</i>.” </p>
<p>To make it work, the United States and its allies will need to do more thinking and regulation writing for some businesses, while allowing others to stay in China, which is navigating its own push. </p>
<p>In the sanction’s world, sifting risk from fair treatment and economic benefit is an imperfect, evolving challenge — so will it be with China. </p>
<h1>2. History of the China − US - relationship</h1>
<p>What are the different phases in the politics of the US towards China during the last 5 decades? </p>
<p>Which were the major events or acting players influencing the relationship between the 2 powers? </p>
<p>The geopolitical relationship between the United States and China has undergone several phases over the past 50 years, a pivotal period in Sino-American relations, shifting from rapprochement, via strategic cooperation to competition and rivalry. Here's an overview of the evolving dynamics: </p>
<h2>1970s: <a name="_Hlk150454352">Rapprochement</a></h2>
<p>President <b>Nixon’s</b> visit to China in 1972 marked the beginning of rapprochement between the two nations after decades of estrangement during the Cold War. Influential Players during this period were President Richard Nixon and his Secretary of State, <b>Henry Kissinger</b>, on the U.S. side; Chairman Mao Zedong and Premier <b>Zhou Enlai</b> on the Chinese side. This led to the normalization of diplomatic relations and set the stage for increased economic and cultural exchanges. </p>
<h2>1980s: Engagement and Cooperation</h2>
<p>Following the normalization of diplomatic relations in 1979, the 1980s saw a period of increasing engagement and cooperation. China's reform and opening-up policies under <b>Deng Xiaoping</b> and the country's entry into the global economy were viewed positively by the U.S., which supported China's modernization as a <b>counterbalance to Soviet influence</b> guided by the principle “my enemy’s, enemy is my friend”. The U.S. granted <b>Most Favoured Nation trade status</b> to China, and bilateral trade began to grow. </p>
<h2>1990s: Tension and Conditional Engagement</h2>
<p>Still in 1989 The <b>Tiananmen Square incident</b> significantly strained relations, leading to U.S. sanctions and a global outcry over human rights. But driving geo-political forces dictated that despite tensions, the U.S. continued to engage with China, especially on economic fronts, with the claimed but unfounded <b>belief </b>that<b> trade and investment </b>would eventually lead to<b> political liberalization</b>– or the country’s economic ascent would stall and the country would fail. This firm assumption finally led to China's accession to the <b>World Trade Organization</b> (WTO) in 2001, with strong U.S. backing, believing it would integrate China into the “rules-based international order”. </p>
<h2>2000s: Integration and Growing Rivalry</h2>
<p>As China's <b>economy grew rapidly</b>, its global influence expanded. The U.S. began to see China as a potential competitor but continued to deepen economic ties. China's <b>military modernization</b> also started to concern U.S. policymakers. The <b>Hainan Island incident</b> in 2001 created military tensions; however, <b>post-9/11, counter-terrorism efforts</b> saw some cooperation. </p>
<h2>2010s: Strategic Pivot and Competition</h2>
<p>The Obama administration's "<b>Pivot to Asia</b>" was an effort to rebalance U.S. foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific region, which was seen as a response to China's rising influence. China was increasingly perceived as challenging the US as a world hegemon. Tensions arose with <b>Cybersecurity issues</b> and the <b>South China Sea</b> territorial disputes becoming major points of contention. As a risk mitigating measure the establishment of the <b>annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue</b> can be seen. </p>
<h2>Late 2010s to Early 2020s: Confrontation and Decoupling</h2>
<p>Then came President Donald Trump. Under his watch the U.S. took a more <b>confrontational stance</b>, initiating a <b>trade war</b>, challenging China on multiple fronts including technology, trade practices, human rights, and regional security. The trade war initiated in 2018, was leading to tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of goods. The U.S. targeting Chinese tech companies like <b>Huawei</b>, citing national security concerns. China responded with counter </p>
<h2>2020s: Strategic Competition</h2>
<p>The Biden administration has continued a <b>tough stance on China</b>, seeing the relationship as one of "<b>strategic competition</b>". The U.S. has sought to work with <b>allies</b> and dependent states to <b>counterbalance China</b>'s growing influence and has emphasized the need for the US-rules-based international order. Thus, tensions in trade, technology are continuing. Human rights, particularly the situation in <b>Xinjiang</b> and <b>Hong Kong</b>, and military posturing in the <b>Indo-Pacific</b> region became hot topics again. </p>
<p>The geopolitical nature of most of these points of conflict can be aptly demonstrated by the example of the alleged human rights violations against the Central Asian Uyghur people in Xinjiang. According to reports, members of the Uyghur people have historically been among the toughest and most brutal fighters for the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or Daesh. However, this image in the western press has changed, with the same people being portrayed merely as victims of "cultural genocide" by the Chinese authorities through imprisonment and forced labour. </p>
<p>Hence, over the past five decades the relationship has been influenced by geo-political considerations, global events, domestic politics in both countries, and the personalities of the leaders. It is characterized by a complex interdependency, particularly in the economic realm, which both sides are navigating amid rising tensions, caused by an emerging great power competition. </p>
<p>Among those driving forces <b>three dominating root causes</b> can be identified, which will likely continue to have profound implications for the future trajectory of the relationship in terms of global politics and economics. </p>
<p>First however let’s have a short look at the situation which let to the surprising formation of that unlikely alliance </p>
<h1>3. Geopolitical landscapes during the Cold War</h1>
<p>During the first years of engagement by Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon on the US side and Zhou Enlai and Chairman Mao Zedong on the side of China there was a certain geo-political constellation, which drew both sides together and encouraged them to cooperate. </p>
<p>The rapprochement between the United States and China in the early 1970s was a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape during the Cold War. This shift was driven by a complex interplay of strategic interests and realpolitik calculations on both sides. </p>
<p>Here are the key elements of the geopolitical constellation that facilitated this historic engagement: </p>
<h2>Strategic Triangulation:</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Soviet Threat</b>: <br /> The growing rift between China and the Soviet Union, known as the <b>Sino-Soviet split</b>, had reached a point where border conflicts were occurring. Both the U.S. and China saw the Soviet Union as a significant threat—China on its northern border and the U.S. globally. By engaging with China, the U.S. aimed to exploit this rift and create a strategic triangle where it could play China against the Soviet Union, thus gaining leverage in its Cold War strategy.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Major Players:</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>United States</b>: <br /> President Richard Nixon, who was known for his anti-communist stance, and his National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, were the key architects of the U.S. policy of detente with China. They recognized the opportunity to reshape the balance of power against the Soviets.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>China</b>: <br />Premier Zhou Enlai and Chairman Mao Zedong were the leading Chinese figures in this engagement. Mao's ideological rift with the Soviets and Zhou's diplomatic acumen were pivotal in opening China to the U.S.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Mutual Interests:</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Containment of Soviet Expansion</b>: <br />Both countries were interested in containing Soviet geopolitical ambitions. For the U.S., having China as a counterweight in Asia could help check Soviet influence. For China, a détente with the U.S. could provide a security buffer against the threat from its erstwhile ally.<br /> <br /></li>
<li><b>Economic and Technological Incentives</b>: <br />China was seeking modernization and economic development. The U.S. could provide access to technology, capital, and markets that China needed for its economic reforms.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Normalization as a Logical Consequence: </h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Realpolitik</b>: <br />The geopolitical landscape of the time was dominated by realpolitik—a system of politics based on practical rather than moral or ideological considerations. The mutual benefit of balancing against the Soviet Union made the rapprochement a logical step.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Global Recognition</b>: <br />For the U.S., recognizing the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the legitimate government of China (over the Republic of China in Taiwan) was an acknowledgment of the political reality that China could not be isolated indefinitely.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Driving Forces: </h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Vietnam War</b>: <br />The U.S. was embroiled in the Vietnam War and seeking a way to extricate itself. Improved relations with China could potentially facilitate this process and reduce the risk of further escalation in Southeast Asia.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Domestic Politics</b>: <br />For Nixon, the move was also politically astute; opening relations with China was an achievement that could bolster his foreign policy credentials.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Symbolic Gestures: </h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Ping-Pong Diplomacy</b>: <br />The exchange of table tennis players between the U.S. and China in 1971 was a symbolic gesture that helped thaw relations and paved the way for more formal diplomatic engagement.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Nixon's Visit</b>: <br />Nixon's visit to China in 1972 was a watershed moment in international diplomacy, signalling to the world that a new chapter in international relations had begun.</li>
</ul>
<p>Although in principle being ideological antipodes, the geopolitical constellation of the time made the U.S.-China rapprochement a matter of strategic necessity and opportunity for both countries, altering the Cold War dynamics significantly. This initial engagement laid the groundwork for the eventual normalization of relations and China's opening up to the world. This bold strategic move represents a prime example of the dominance of realpolitik over value driven approaches, which nevertheless dominate the official narratives.</p>
<h1>4. American dissonance between rhetoric and action</h1>
<p>John Mearsheimer is a prominent realist scholar in the field of international relations, and his analysis is grounded in the realist theory of international politics, which emphasizes power and security competition among states. According to realist theory, the international system is anarchic, which means there is no overarching authority to regulate the actions of states. This condition leads states to seek power, either to defend themselves or to assert dominance.</p>
<p>Mearsheimer, in particular, subscribes to an offshoot of realism called "offensive realism," which suggests that great powers are inherently driven by an insatiable desire for more power, leading them to seek regional or even global hegemony. </p>
<p>He argues that U.S. foreign policy can often be understood through a dualistic lens where …</p>
<ol>
<li>the <b><i>'real'</i></b> motivations—grounded in power politics and national interest—are sometimes masked by </li>
<li>an <b><i>'ideological'</i></b> layer aimed at garnering public and international support. </li>
</ol>
<p>This perspective is rooted in the realist school of international relations, which sees the pursuit of power and security as the central drivers of state behaviour. There is some evidence supporting this view:</p>
<h2>Historical Precedents </h2>
<p>Throughout history, nations, including the U.S., have often used <b>idealistic rhetoric</b> to justify actions that are fundamentally about national interests. For example, the <b>Monroe Doctrine</b> was framed as a policy of resisting European colonialism in the Americas. But it also served the U.S.'s strategic interest in preventing other powers from gaining a foothold near its borders.</p>
<h2>Vietnam and Cold War Interventions </h2>
<p>The U.S. justified its involvement in Vietnam as a stand against communism in service of global democracy, but realists argue that it was fundamentally about containing Soviet and Chinese influence. Similarly, interventions in Latin America and other regions during the Cold War were often framed as supporting democracy, though they sometimes supported authoritarian regimes that were aligned with U.S. strategic interests.</p>
<h2>Iraq War </h2>
<p>The 2003 invasion of Iraq was justified on the grounds of promoting democracy and eliminating weapons of mass destruction, but critics argue that strategic considerations, such as controlling oil resources and maintaining regional hegemony, were the real motivations.</p>
<h2>Balancing China </h2>
<p>The pivot to Asia and the subsequent framing of competition with China are often couched in terms of values, such as promoting a "<i>free and open Indo-Pacific</i>," but from a realist perspective, these policies are about balancing the rise of a new great power.</p>
<h2>Rhetoric vs. Action </h2>
<p>There are often discrepancies between U.S. rhetoric on human rights and democracy and its foreign policy actions, where strategic interests have led to alliances with non-democratic states or inattention to human rights abuses when it suits national interests.</p>
<h2>Public Opinion and Moral Framing </h2>
<p>Studies in political communication suggest that moral framing is more effective in garnering public support for foreign policy. Thus, presenting policy in terms of values can be a way to align the public with the realpolitik moves of the state.</p>
<p>Mearsheimer’s <i>realist</i> interpretation provides one lens through which to view U.S. foreign policy. But although it delivers compelling explanations of several international activities in U.S. foreign politics, it is not universally accepted. Other scholars, particularly those from the <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2023/09/on-realism-liberalism-and-constructivism.html"><i>liberal</i> or <i>constructivist</i></a> schools of international relations, argue that ideals and values do play a genuine role in shaping foreign policy. Moreover, some policymakers and analysts contend that values and interests are not always mutually exclusive and can often reinforce one another.</p>
<p>While realist critiques like Mearsheimer’s may emphasize the dissonance between rhetoric and action, this doesn’t necessarily imply that the ideological layer is entirely cynical or without genuine belief. It's also plausible that many policymakers and diplomats are sincere in their desire to promote values like human rights and democracy, even as strategic interests also play a key role in decision-making processes. Nevertheless the intellectual framework of offensive realisms gives us a good guidance to decrypt the different stages, the Sino-US-relations were in, like outlined in the following chapter.</p>
<h1>5. Root causes – 1<sup>st</sup> offensive realism</h1>
<p>Some experts, of which not surprisingly the American scholar John Mearsheimer quoted before is a prominent representative of, don't buy the accusations, brought forward by the US Administration like Human rights violations, border disputes or general higher Chinese assertiveness. They but point to the underlying pattern of <a href="https://samuelbhfauredotcom.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/s2-mearsheimer-2001.pdf">great power politics</a>. According to these alleged underlying mechanisms a major conflict between China and the US would be unavoidable, just like the situation prior to WWI, when Germany was rising and Great Britain felt threatened. </p>
<p>Here are some points that align with Mearsheimer's worldview and the current Sino-American relationship:</p>
<h2>Thucydides Trap </h2>
<p>This is a term coined by American political scientist <a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty/graham-allison">Graham Allison</a>, referencing the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. It describes a situation where a rising power causes fear in an established power, leading to a possible escalation to war. The parallel here is the dynamic between a rising China and an established United States, with some analysts fearing inevitable conflict.</p>
<h2>Historical Patterns </h2>
<p>Mearsheimer and other realists often point to historical patterns to justify their views. The lead-up to WWI, with a rising Germany challenging Great Britain's dominance, is sometimes cited as an analogy to current US-China tensions. This historical parallel supports the argument that major powers inevitably clash as the balance of power shifts.</p>
<h2>Military Build-Up </h2>
<p>The expansion of China’s military capabilities, particularly in the South China Sea and the development of its blue-water navy, is seen by realists as evidence of its intentions to assert greater regional control and challenge U.S. military dominance.</p>
<h2>Economic Power and Influence </h2>
<p>China's Belt and Road Initiative and its increasing economic clout are perceived as tools for expanding its influence and reshaping the global order in its favour, which can be seen as a strategic move in great power competition.</p>
<h2>Technological and Ideological Competition </h2>
<p>The race for technological supremacy, especially in areas like 5G, AI, and cybersecurity, along with ideological competition between China's authoritarian model and the U.S. democratic model, are contemporary battlegrounds reminiscent of past great power rivalries.</p>
<h2>Rival Alliances and Partnerships </h2>
<p>The forming of rival economic and military alliances (e.g., AUKUS, Quad, Belt and Road Initiative) is reminiscent of the alliance systems that were a significant factor in the escalation of WWI.</p>
<p>Of course, history does not inevitably repeat itself, and there are many mechanisms and institutions in the modern era that can prevent conflict, such as nuclear deterrence, economic interdependence, and international organizations designed to facilitate cooperation and resolve disputes. Furthermore, many scholars and policymakers advocate for engagement, diplomacy, and confidence-building measures as ways to manage and mitigate great power tensions.</p>
<p>While Mearsheimer's perspective is one influential lens through which to view international relations, there are alternative theories, such as liberal internationalism or constructivism, that emphasize different aspects of the international system, such as institutions, democracy, and norms. As such, whether conflict between the US and China is inevitable is a subject of considerable debate, and there is evidence and argumentation on both sides of the issue.</p>
<h1>6. Root causes – 2<sup>nd</sup> economic & political delusion</h1>
<p>There are two very influential books that were once recommended by the last Governor of Hong Kong, Chris Patten (Christopher Francis Patten, Baron Patten of Barnes): </p>
<ol>
<li>"Mr. China" by Tim Clissold (Autor) and </li>
<li>"The China Dream: The Quest for the Last Great Untapped Market on Earth" written by Joe Studwell. </li>
</ol>
<p>Both books lay out in detail how many western multinationals, driven by a mix of optimism, misunderstanding, and sometimes hubris or even outspoken greed and unrealistic expectations, poured about 100 billion USD of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into China, only to see many of their pipe dreams not becoming reality. Deeply disappointed several of them retreated thereafter. </p>
<p>The narratives in these books highlight a common pattern where Western businesses and governments underestimated the complexities of the Chinese market and the political environment, leading to both business failures and unmet political expectations. </p>
<p>One of those unmet political expectations was, that an economically developing China would either turn into a western-style liberal democracy or simply fail to develop. However, China failed to fail, meaning China developed economically without turning in a western-style democracy. </p>
<p>There is evidence that these dual disappointments contributed to the current Sino-American estrangement.</p>
<h2>Economic Disillusionment</h2>
<p>The stories of lost investments and failed joint ventures detailed in books like "Mr. China" showcase the harsh realities that many Western companies faced when they entered the Chinese market with high hopes and little understanding of the local business culture, regulatory environment, and political context. As these companies retreated, it may have led to a sense of disillusionment and scepticism about the prospects of engaging with China economically. </p>
<h2>Political Disappointment</h2>
<p>Western policymakers and some parts of the business community hoped that economic liberalization would inevitably lead to political liberalization in China. As China's economy grew, however, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) maintained and even tightened its grip on power. The fact that China "failed to fail" in this regard has certainly caused frustration and a re-evaluation of strategies among Western democracies, contributing to a more confrontational stance in recent years. </p>
<h2>Intellectual Property and Trade Practices</h2>
<p>Western businesses often complain of unfair trade practices, forced technology transfers, and inadequate protection of intellectual property rights in China. These grievances have fuelled trade tensions and have been a significant factor in the rethinking of the Sino-American economic relationship. </p>
<h2>Strategic Rethink</h2>
<p>The economic development of China without the anticipated political liberalization has led Western countries, particularly the United States, to reconsider their approach toward China. The view of China as a "strategic competitor" rather than a "strategic partner" in official U.S. policy documents reflects this shift. </p>
<h2>Human Rights and Ideological Divergence</h2>
<p>Human rights issues, such as the treatment of ethnic minorities in China, have further driven a wedge between Western expectations and Chinese actions, exacerbating tensions. </p>
<h2>Global Ambitions</h2>
<p>As China has grown stronger, it has become more assertive in its foreign policy and global ambitions, leading to strategic competition in various domains, from the South China Sea to global institutions, which is a source of concern for the U.S. and its allies. </p>
<h2>Shift in the Balance of Power</h2>
<p>As China has risen economically and militarily, there has been a corresponding shift in the global balance of power. The United States, in response to what it sees as China's challenge to the existing international order, has adjusted its foreign policy accordingly. </p>
<p>In essence, the disillusionment stemming from unmet economic expectations and the dashed hopes of China’s political liberalization have played a decisive role in the evolving Sino-American relationship. These elements, combined with the geopolitical shifts and the broader strategic recalculations, have contributed to the current state of estrangement. </p>
<p>The narrative that China has not followed the path that many in the West anticipated has prompted a reassessment of how China is viewed and engaged with on the world stage. </p>
<h1>7. Root causes − 3<sup>rd</sup> geo-political shifts</h1>
<p>The current geopolitical situation meanwhile is a far cry from the era of U.S.-China rapprochement that marked the Nixon era. Many things have changed politically: the Soviet Union has collapsed, there was a unipolar moment, China grew economically and politically and is meanwhile rather seen as a strategic competitor, if not worse. </p>
<p>On October 7<sup>th</sup>as 2023 even a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/magazine/semiconductor-chips-us-china.html">law was issued</a> by the US administration which could well be understood as a declaration of (economic) war on China. </p>
<p>Let's look at how things have evolved: </p>
<h2>Post-Cold War and Unipolar Moment:</h2>
<ul>
<li>After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States emerged as the sole superpower, leading to what political scientist Charles Krauthammer termed the "<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20044692">unipolar moment</a>." The U.S. enjoyed unmatched global influence politically, economically, and militarily.</li>
</ul>
<h2>China's Economic and Political Ascendancy:</h2>
<ul>
<li>China capitalized on the post-Mao economic reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping, leading to unprecedented economic growth. The country became the "<b>world's factory</b>," an economic powerhouse, and a significant player on the global stage.<br /><br /></li>
<li>Politically, China's governance model remained authoritarian, with the Communist Party of China (CPC) maintaining tight control over the state and society.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Strategic Competition:</h2>
<ul>
<li>As China grew, so did its ambitions. The "peaceful rise" narrative gave way to more assertive policies, particularly in the South China Sea, along with initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that expanded China's global influence.<br /><br /></li>
<li>The United States began to see China not just as a strategic competitor but also as a potential threat to its interests and values, leading to a bipartisan consensus on taking a harder stance against China.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Technological Rivalry:</h2>
<ul>
<li>The competition extended to technology, with both countries vying for leadership in areas like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and 5G telecommunications.<br /><br /></li>
<li>Concerns over intellectual property theft, cybersecurity, and the role of Chinese tech companies like Huawei and Tencent in global markets became points of contention.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Economic Decoupling:</h2>
<ul>
<li>The concept of economic "decoupling" gained traction in Washington, with calls to reduce dependence on China for critical supply chains and to restrict Chinese access to American technology and investment.<br /><br /></li>
<li>The October 7<sup>th</sup>, 2023 law could be seen as an extension of this policy, likely imposing stringent controls on trade, investment, and technological exchanges with China.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Current Situation and Possible Future:</h2>
<ul>
<li>The current situation is marked by heightened tensions and the potential for conflict, not just in trade but also in areas like Taiwan, where U.S. commitments to the island's defence clash with China's territorial claims.<br /><br /></li>
<li>Militarization and regional alliances are being strengthened, as seen with the Quad (U.S., India, Japan, Australia) and AUKUS (Australia, U.K., U.S.) pacts, which are seen as counters to Chinese influence.<br /><br /></li>
<li>The risk is that economic, political, and military tensions could escalate into a new Cold War or even direct conflict, although both nations have significant incentives to avoid military confrontation.<br /><br /></li>
<li>Cybersecurity and space are new domains of potential conflict that were not present during the Cold War.</li>
</ul>
<h2>In Conclusion:</h2>
<ul>
<li>The trajectory of U.S.-China relations will be shaped by the actions and policies of both nations. While competition is likely to remain intense, there are also global challenges like climate change and pandemics that require cooperation.<br /><br /></li>
<li>The situation is dynamic, with the potential for both positive and negative developments. Diplomacy, strategic patience, and multilateral engagement will be crucial to managing this complex relationship and avoiding a descent into confrontation.</li>
</ul>
<h1>8. A situation similar to the “Great Game”?</h1>
<p>The history-conscious among us may be reminded of the geopolitical struggle between the two world powers of the time, Russia and Great Britain, known as "The Great Game". The term "Great Game" originally referred to the strategic rivalry and conflict between the British Empire and the Russian Empire for supremacy in Central Asia in the 19<sup>th</sup>century. It's now sometimes invoked as a metaphor for the current strategic rivalry between the United States and China, particularly as it plays out in Asia but also globally. </p>
<h2>Evidence Supporting the Sino-American Tensions as a 'Great Game':</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Geopolitical Rivalry:</b><br />Similar to the British and Russian Empires, the US and China are engaged in a broad geopolitical contest spanning various domains, including military, economic, technological, and ideological spheres.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Sphere of Influence:</b><br />Both the US and China are seeking to expand their influence in Asia through various means, including diplomatic ties, military alliances, economic investments, and soft power.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Proxy Influence:</b><br />Just as the Great Game involved indirect control and influence over third countries, the US and China are vying for relationships and alliances with other nations in Asia and beyond, which could be seen as modern-day proxies.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Infrastructure and Investment:</b><br />China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been compared to the historical efforts to establish trade routes and spheres of influence in Central Asia, evoking similarities with the Great Game's focus on trade and strategic geography.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Aspects Where the Comparison Falls Short:</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Globalization:</b><br />Unlike the 19<sup>th</sup>-century empires, both the US and China are deeply integrated into a globalized economy, making outright conflict more costly and less likely, at least in theory.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Nuclear Deterrence:</b><br />The presence of nuclear weapons and the doctrine of mutually assured destruction introduce a level of deterrence that did not exist during the time of the Great Game.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Multilateralism:</b><br />International institutions and multilateral agreements now play a significant role in mediating conflicts, unlike the bilateral nature of the Great Game.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Internal Politics:</b><br />The internal political situations in both the US and China are more complex and subject to public opinion and economic considerations than were the autocratic systems of the British and Russian Empires.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Technological Interdependence: </b><br />The interwoven nature of technology and supply chains, especially in areas like semiconductors, makes the rivalry more complex than the relatively straightforward competition for territory of the Great Game.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Awareness of Global Challenges:</b><br />There is an understanding that transnational challenges such as climate change and pandemics require a certain degree of cooperation between the US and China, something that was not a consideration in the 19th century.</li>
</ul>
<p>Although the Great Game metaphor may provide a useful lens through which to view the strategic rivalry between the US and China, it is nevertheless an imperfect analogy. The global context and the nature of power in the 21<sup>st</sup>century is each vastly different compared to the 19<sup>th</sup>century. The interconnectedness of modern global politics, economics, and environmental issues means that while competition is fierce, there is also a necessity for collaboration that did not exist in the era of the Great Game. </p>
<h1>9. Today's politics of the US towards China and vice versa</h1>
<p>The politics of the United States toward China, and China's politics toward the United States, can be characterized as a multifaceted strategic competition, which encompasses economic, technological, military, and ideological dimensions: </p>
<h2>United States' Politics Toward China:</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Strategic Competition:</b><br />The Biden administration officially labelled China as "<i>the most serious competitor</i>" to the United States, indicating a strategic approach to outcompete China across various domains while avoiding direct confrontation.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Collaboration and Pushback:</b><br />While competitive in nature, the U.S. has also expressed willingness to collaborate with China on global issues like climate change and pandemic response, where mutual interests align.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Alliance Building:</b><br />The U.S. is actively strengthening alliances, particularly with Indo-Pacific nations, NATO, and other global partners, to create a united front on issues concerning China, such as 5G technology and supply chain security.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Human Rights and Democracy Advocacy:</b><br />The U.S. has been vocal about human rights concerns in China, particularly regarding Xinjiang and Hong Kong, and has taken measures to demonstrate support for democratic values.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Technology and Trade:</b><br />Continuing concerns about trade practices, intellectual property, and technological advancements have led the U.S. to take steps to protect its own technological edge, including restrictions on Chinese tech companies and investments.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Military Posture:</b><br />The U.S. military is focusing on readiness and capability development in the Indo-Pacific region to ensure it can counterbalance the People's Liberation Army's growing capabilities.</li>
</ul>
<h2>China's Politics Toward the United States:</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Assertive Diplomacy:</b><br />China has become more assertive in its foreign policy, including toward the U.S., advocating for a "<i>new type of international relations</i>" and promoting its governance model as an alternative to Western democracy.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Economic Coercion and Influence:</b><br />China utilizes its economic leverage to push back against U.S. influence, implementing counter-tariffs and seeking to reduce dependency on U.S. markets by diversifying trade partners and supply chains.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Technological Self-Reliance: </b><br />In response to U.S. restrictions, China has emphasized the need to achieve self-reliance in critical technologies, investing heavily in sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Military Modernization: </b><br />China continues to modernize its military capabilities, with a focus on areas like anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategies, which could counter U.S. military advantages in the event of a regional conflict.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Ideological Campaign:</b><br />China is countering Western narratives and criticism by promoting its development model, human rights concept, and handling of events in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, through what it calls a "correct" narrative.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Engagement with U.S. Rivals: </b><br />China is engaging with U.S. rivals such as Russia and Iran, building relationships that may serve to balance against U.S. power.</li>
</ul>
<p>Both countries, while managing their rivalry, until now are still aware of the high stakes involved, especially given the interconnected nature of the global economy and the potential for conflict escalation. As a result, an element of restraint in their bilateral relations can be observed, with both sides avoiding steps that could lead to an uncontrollable spiral into direct conflict. This delicate balance however cannot be taken for granted </p>
<h1>10. The role of de-Dollarization </h1>
<p>In the 1960s Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, then the French Minister of Finance, coined the term exorbitant privilege (privilège exorbitant in French) referring to the benefits the United States has due to its own currency (the US dollar) being the international reserve currency. For example, the US would not face a balance of payments crisis, because their imports are purchased in their own currency. </p>
<p>In the wake of the latest global financial crisis, a prominent counter position was voiced, decrying the US Dollar as <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/09/07/an-exorbitant-burden/">exorbitant burden</a> for the US. </p>
<p>It nevertheless, these internal arguments notwithstanding, the US Dollar is unrivalled as a reserve currency with no challenger in sight. It only took the massive weaponisation of the US Dollar to lift the concept of de-dollarization on the international agenda. The term refers to the process of reducing reliance on the United States dollar in international transactions and reserves. It is a trend that has gained attention in the context of the U.S.-China rivalry, as well as in the broader geopolitical landscape. </p>
<h2>Role in U.S.-China Rivalry:</h2>
<ul>
<li>De-dollarization can be seen as a strategic move by China and other nations to diminish the U.S. influence that comes with the dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency.<br /><br /></li>
<li>By promoting the use of their own currencies in trade and investment, countries like China seek to increase their financial autonomy and protect themselves against U.S. sanctions or financial pressures.<br /><br /></li>
<li>For China, advancing the international use of the renminbi (RMB) is also a part of its broader ambition to reflect its economic might in the global financial system.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Triggering Events:</h2>
<ul>
<li>The use of economic sanctions by the U.S. has been a key factor that has prompted some countries to consider de-dollarization. Nations targeted by sanctions seek ways to circumvent the U.S. financial system.<br /><br /></li>
<li>The <a name="_Hlk152005614">global financial crisis </a>of 2008 also played a role, as it exposed the vulnerabilities of a dollar-dominated global financial system.<br /><br /></li>
<li>The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, along with tariffs and other restrictive measures, have further motivated the push for de-dollarization.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Major Proponents:</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>China</b>: <br />As the second-largest economy in the world, China has been a leading voice in de-dollarization, promoting the use of the RMB in international transactions and as part of central bank reserves.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Russia</b>: <br />Economic sanctions have pushed Russia to reduce its dollar holdings and engage in de-dollarization efforts, including promoting the use of the rouble and other currencies in trade with its partners.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Other BRICS nations (Brazil, India, South Africa):</b><br />These countries have also shown interest in reducing dependency on the dollar, exploring alternative payment systems and reserve currencies.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Current Status:</h2>
<ul>
<li>While there has been progress in de-dollarization efforts, the U.S. dollar remains dominant in international trade and finance. This is due to its stability, liquidity, and the United States' role in the global economy.<br /><br /></li>
<li>China has made strides in internationalizing the RMB, including the establishment of RMB clearing banks around the world and the inclusion of the RMB in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Future Outlook:</h2>
<ul>
<li>De-dollarization is likely to continue gradually, as countries seek to diversify their foreign exchange reserves and reduce exposure to potential U.S. sanctions.<br /><br /></li>
<li>The rise of digital currencies and blockchain technology may further facilitate de-dollarization by providing alternative means of international transaction.<br /><br /></li>
<li>Nonetheless, the process is expected to be slow, given the entrenched position of the dollar and the lack of a ready substitute that can match its liquidity and acceptance.<br /><br /></li>
<li>The rivalry between the U.S. and China may accelerate this process, particularly if relations deteriorate and lead to more aggressive financial decoupling.</li>
</ul>
<p>As the international financial system is firmly based on the use of the US dollar, the success of de-dollarization efforts will be limited in short and medium terms. It will depend on numerous factors, including the stability and openness of the economies promoting alternative currencies, the evolution of the international trade and financial systems, and geopolitical shifts. It's an ongoing trend with the potential to reshape international financial relations significantly over the coming decades. </p>
<p>In short term even China will not be able to escape the US dollar as the dominant exchange currency. The country hence for quite a while will have to accept the dangers associated with the potential use of the global reserve currency as a weapon in the international great power competition. </p>
<h1>11. The EU’s policy towards China</h1>
<p>The European Union's policy towards China is multifaceted, reflecting the complexity of its member states' interests and China's rising global influence. The EU has traditionally aimed for a balanced approach, seeking to engage China as a partner in trade and global governance while also addressing challenges in areas such as human rights, security, and reciprocity in economic relations. </p>
<h2>Main Characteristics of EU Policy towards China:</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Comprehensive Strategic Partnership:</b><br />The EU has long sought to engage China through what it terms a "<i>Comprehensive Strategic Partnership</i>." This approach aims to deepen cooperation across a range of sectors, including climate change, economic and trade matters, technological research, and global security issues.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Trade and Investment:</b><br />The EU is China's largest trading partner, and China is the EU's second-largest. The economic relationship is a significant focus, with the EU pushing for a more balanced and reciprocal trade relationship, as well as addressing concerns over market access and intellectual property rights.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Human Rights and Rule of Law:</b><br />The EU often emphasizes human rights, calling for respect for fundamental freedoms and the rule of law in China, including in its dealings with Hong Kong and Xinjiang.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Security Concerns:</b><br />The EU is increasingly attentive to the security implications of China's rise, particularly regarding cybersecurity, 5G networks, and China's military activities, especially in the South China Sea.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Multilateralism:</b><br />The EU promotes a multilateral approach to global challenges, encouraging China to participate constructively in international institutions and to adhere to international norms.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Differences from the US Approach:</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Confrontation vs. Cooperation:</b><br />The US has taken a more confrontational approach towards China, especially regarding trade, technology, and security. The EU, while sharing some of these concerns, typically emphasizes engagement and dialogue over confrontation.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Security Alliances:</b><br />The US has security alliances in the Asia-Pacific region and often views China's actions through a security lens. The EU, lacking similar alliances and with a smaller military footprint in the region, tends to prioritize economic and diplomatic tools.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Human Rights Stance:</b><br />While both the US and EU are critical of China's human rights record, the EU's critique is often coupled with an emphasis on dialogue and mutual understanding, as opposed to the US's more direct sanctions-based approach.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Commonalities with the US Approach:</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>Trade Practices:</b><br />Both the EU and the US have criticized China's trade practices, particularly state subsidies for Chinese companies, intellectual property theft, and lack of market access for foreign firms.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Technological Rivalry:</b><br />There is a growing concern in both the EU and the US about technological dependencies on China and the need for securing supply chains in critical technologies like 5G, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Global Governance:</b><br />Both seek to shape the rules of global governance in ways that reflect liberal democratic values, and they encourage China to adhere to these norms.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Evolution of the Policy:</h2>
<ul>
<li>The EU's policy has evolved from one of broad engagement to a more nuanced stance that recognizes China simultaneously as a <b>cooperation </b>partner, a negotiating partner, an economic <b>competitor</b>, and a systemic <b>rival</b>.<br /><br /></li>
<li>Pressed hard by the US to maintain a tougher stance towards China, the EU in 2019 labelled China as a "systemic rival" for the first time, signalling a shift towards a more assertive stance on issues like security, technology, and values.<br /><br /></li>
<li>The EU is also working on its strategic autonomy to reduce dependencies on China, seeking to diversify partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region.<br /><br /></li>
<li>Recently in 2023-07-14 the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany released Strategy on China as part of the joint EU policy on China. This policy declares to be embedded in the aims and principles of the EU’s common policy on China and based on constant close coordination with EU partners. The strategy paper contains a collection of well-known and often publicly stated claims, complaints, wishes, accusations but few principles, goals, success factors, measures. It therefore hardly qualifies for a strategy.</li>
</ul>
<p>The EU's policy towards China to a certain degree continues to develop in response to internal dynamics within the EU itself, changing global conditions, the actions of China but predominantly to the increasing pressure from the US. The EU aims to defend its interests and promote its values, while also looking for areas where cooperation with China is possible and beneficial for addressing global challenges like climate change, which given the weak geo-political position of the EU appears to be a futile endeavour. </p>
<h1>12. Practical implications of Europe’s and the US’s China strategy</h1>
<p>The policies and strategies of the EU towards China, very much like those of the US, are more than just rhetorical. They have practical implications and are being implemented with tangible and at time harsh effects on business operations. How they manifest on the ground will be felt only during the next years in an overwhelmingly adverse way. </p>
<h2>European Union (EU)</h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>Investment Screening: </strong><br />The EU has established a framework to screen foreign direct investments, which became fully operational in October 2020. This is aimed at protecting critical European assets and technology from potentially hostile foreign takeover or influence.<br /><br /></li>
<li><strong>5G Network Security: </strong><br />Many EU countries are tightening restrictions on the participation of Chinese companies like Huawei in their 5G networks, citing security concerns.<br /><br /></li>
<li><strong>Research and Innovation Protections: </strong><br />The EU has introduced measures to protect its technological and intellectual property, including more stringent conditions for participation in research programs like Horizon Europe, especially for entities from non-EU countries.<br /><br /></li>
<li><strong>Trade Defence Instruments: </strong><br />The EU has been more willing to use anti-dumping measures and other trade defence instruments against unfair trade practices, some of which affect Chinese companies.<br /><br /></li>
<li><strong>Supply Chain Diversification: </strong><br />The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated European efforts to diversify supply chains away from over-reliance on China, leading to initiatives to bring some production closer to home or to alternative locations.</li>
</ul>
<h2>United States (US)</h2>
<ul>
<li><strong>Trade Tariffs: </strong><br />The US has imposed tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of Chinese goods, which has had a direct effect on trade flows and business decisions regarding sourcing and manufacturing locations.<br /><br /></li>
<li><strong>Entity List: </strong><br />The US Department of Commerce has placed several Chinese companies on the Entity List, which limits their ability to buy US technology and components without government approval.<br /><br /></li>
<li><strong>Investment Restrictions: </strong><br />US legislation and executive orders have been put in place that restricts American investment in Chinese companies with military ties or those operating in sectors deemed critical to US security.<br /><br /></li>
<li><strong>Export Controls: </strong><br />The US has tightened export controls on certain technologies, especially those that can be used in military applications or in the surveillance of minorities within China.<br /><br /></li>
<li><strong>Clean Network Initiative: </strong><br />This initiative aims to safeguard America's assets, including data and telecommunications, from "aggressors" like the Chinese Communist Party, influencing businesses in how they structure their IT and communication networks.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Implementation and Impact</h2>
<p>The implementation of these measures requires companies to find their way in a more complex legal environment. For example, companies with international supply chains must now consider the impact of investment reviews and trade tariffs on their business activities. In practice, this affects decisions about where they manufacture products, how they protect their intellectual property and who they want to do business with. </p>
<p>Both the US and EU have shown a commitment to implementing these strategies, reflecting a shift towards a more belligerent and confrontational approach to economic relations with China. However, this currently does not mean a complete decoupling or disengagement. </p>
<p>Rather, it is a recalibration of relations with China with the aim of maintaining US international leadership under the guise of protecting national and economic security interests, while pursuing trade and co-operation where this is still possible. </p>
<h1>13. Chinas response</h1>
<p>China on the other hand has responded to the measures taken by the US and the EU with a combination of retaliatory actions, strategic adjustments, and domestic policy reforms: </p>
<h2>Retaliatory Tariffs and Sanctions</h2>
<p>In response to US tariffs, China imposed its own set of retaliatory tariffs on a range of American products. Beijing has also sanctioned entities and individuals in the EU and US that it perceives as interfering in its internal affairs, particularly those criticizing its actions in regions such as Xinjiang and Hong Kong. </p>
<h2>Legal Countermeasures</h2>
<p>China passed laws such as the "<i>Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law</i>," which provides a legal basis for counteracting sanctions. It allows China to take legal actions against individuals or entities involved in designing or implementing discriminatory measures against Chinese citizens or entities. </p>
<h2>Diversification of Trade</h2>
<p>China is actively seeking to reduce its dependence on the US and EU markets by diversifying its trade partnerships. This includes the Belt and Road Initiative to increase infrastructure and trade links primarily with Asia, Africa, and Europe, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to deepen economic ties in the Asia-Pacific and BRICS. </p>
<h2>Attracting Foreign Investment</h2>
<p>China continues to open up sectors of its economy to foreign investment, seeking to counterbalance any divestment resulting from Western policies. It has also passed a new Foreign Investment Law aimed at improving the business environment for foreign investors and addressing concerns such as forced technology transfer. </p>
<h2>Strengthening Domestic Market</h2>
<p>The "dual circulation" strategy has been introduced to bolster domestic consumption and innovation, making the Chinese economy less vulnerable to external pressures and fluctuations in international trade. </p>
<h2>Technological Self-Sufficiency</h2>
<p>In response to technology restrictions, China is investing heavily in developing its own technological capabilities, particularly in semiconductors and telecommunications, to achieve self-reliance in critical technologies. </p>
<h2>International Alliances</h2>
<p>China has been actively working to strengthen ties with countries in other regions, such as engaging more with ASEAN countries, deepening ties with Russia, and building relations in Africa and Latin America, partly to counterbalance the influence of the US and EU. </p>
<h2>Public Diplomacy and Influence Campaigns</h2>
<p>China conducts public diplomacy efforts to improve its global image and to promote its political and economic model. This includes a significant presence in international media and on global platforms to present its narrative. </p>
<h2>Cybersecurity and Information Control</h2>
<p>In response to concerns about data and cybersecurity, China has tightened its own data protection regulations and is promoting its vision of "cyber sovereignty," which calls for greater state control over the internet and data flows within its borders. </p>
<p>China's responses reflect a strategy that is both reactive and proactive. While pushing back against the policies of the US and the EU, China is also taking steps to reduce its vulnerabilities and to reshape the global economic and political order in a way that is more favourable to its interests. This includes both strengthening its domestic economy and increasing its influence on the international stage through new partnerships and enhanced diplomatic engagement. </p>
<h1>14. Germany’s pronounced vulnerability</h1>
<p>Germany in particular does have certain vulnerabilities due to its position within these rising tensions. As the largest economy in the European Union and one that is highly dependent on exports, including a significant trade volume with both China and the United States, Germany could be significantly affected by geopolitical tensions. </p>
<p>Some industry sectors might be most affected: </p>
<h2>Automotive Industry</h2>
<p>The automotive sector is a cornerstone of the German economy, with China being a major market for German car manufacturers. Tariffs or trade barriers could impact exports significantly. Additionally, the push for electric vehicles (EVs) and China's strong position in the EV market and supply chain for batteries could also present challenges. </p>
<h2>Machinery and Plant Engineering</h2>
<p>Germany's machinery and plant engineering sector is another key area of its export economy, with many German companies having significant business interests in China. Disruptions in trade could affect this sector directly. </p>
<h2>Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals</h2>
<p>The chemicals and pharmaceuticals industries are also key sectors that could be impacted by tensions, particularly if supply chains are disrupted. China is an important supplier of raw materials and also a growing market for German pharmaceutical products. </p>
<h2>Technology and Telecommunications</h2>
<p>With the global race for technological dominance, especially around 5G technology where Chinese companies like Huawei are key players, German tech companies might find themselves in a difficult position if forced to choose between US and Chinese technologies and standards. </p>
<h2>Energy Sector</h2>
<p>The energy sector, especially with Germany's phase-out of nuclear and coal energy, could be impacted by tensions, particularly if trade disputes affect the availability or cost of imported energy commodities or technologies. </p>
<p>In terms of vulnerability Germany's strong institutional framework, diversified global trade relationships, and high levels of innovation provide some level of resilience. However, industries that are highly integrated with global supply chains or dependent on foreign markets for sales or raw materials could experience significant stress due to geopolitical tensions. </p>
<p>Additionally, the German government is aware of these vulnerabilities and may seek to implement policies aimed at diversifying trade, strengthening domestic industries, and developing alternative markets to mitigate these risks. The outcome will also be shaped by how the EU, as a whole, navigates these tensions and what common strategies it develops. The results so far however are less than encouraging with Germany being squeezed between the two superpowers becoming the biggest looser of the struggle of others. </p>
<h1>15. Benefits of staying in China</h1>
<p>Despite rising geopolitical tensions, there are several compelling reasons why companies might choose to remain engaged with the Chinese market: </p>
<h2>Market Size and Growth Potential</h2>
<p>China's population is over 1.4 billion people, making it the world’s most populous country with a rapidly growing middle class. This presents a significant consumer market for a wide range of products and services. For many businesses, the sheer volume of potential sales and the growth potential are too large to ignore. </p>
<h2>Diversification</h2>
<p>Operating in the Chinese market can allow companies to diversify their revenue streams. Relying on a single market or a handful of markets for revenue can be risky, especially if those markets face economic downturns. China can offer a hedge against economic cycles in other parts of the world. </p>
<h2>Supply Chain Integration</h2>
<p>China is deeply integrated into the global supply chain. It is not just a market for finished goods but also a key supplier of raw materials, components, and finished products. Companies often find cost advantages in manufacturing or sourcing from China due to its developed supply chains and economies of scale. </p>
<h2>Competitive Presence</h2>
<p>Being active in the Chinese market can prevent competitors from taking over the market share. By maintaining a presence, companies can protect their brand recognition and market position, which could be more difficult to regain if they leave and decide to return later. </p>
<p>A German business representative recently described China as the "fitness centre" for German companies. This means that those who can survive in these challenging conditions and fierce competition will succeed anywhere else. </p>
<h2>Innovation and Technology</h2>
<p>China has become a hub for innovation in areas such as digital payments, e-commerce, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence. Companies operating in China can gain insights into cutting-edge technology and business models, which they can potentially leverage globally. </p>
<h2>Strategic Partnerships</h2>
<p>Engagement with Chinese businesses can lead to strategic partnerships that are beneficial beyond the Chinese market. These partnerships can enable access to new technologies, investment opportunities, and other markets in Asia through regional trade agreements where China plays a significant role. </p>
<h2>Responsiveness to Policy Changes</h2>
<p>Companies with a presence in China may be better positioned to quickly adapt to policy changes and navigate the regulatory environment. They can build relationships with Chinese stakeholders and local governments, which can be beneficial for long-term operations. </p>
<h2>Cultural and Brand Influence</h2>
<p>A strong presence in China can contribute to a global brand's cultural influence. The perception and popularity of a brand in China can have positive effects on its perception in other markets due to the global visibility of Chinese consumers and tourists. </p>
<p>Despite these benefits, companies must balance the advantages with the risks associated with geopolitical uncertainties, intellectual property concerns, and potential ethical considerations. The decision to stay in the Chinese market must be made with a comprehensive understanding of both the market potential and the external risks. </p>
<p>Several Western multinationals have already given up and withdrawn from the Chinese market. Although their failure could be attributed to rising tensions, in many cases a lack of competitiveness is likely to be the real reason. Other large corporations may choose to split into separate entities if they are otherwise at risk of being torn apart by overwhelming geopolitical forces. </p>
<h1>16. Conclusion</h1>
<p>We Europeans must recognise that our geopolitical position is determined and dominated by the US. Although the growing economic competition from a rapidly developing China is real and increasingly felt by Europe and Germany in particular, the measures taken by the EU reflect US geopolitical rivalry with China and not genuine European needs. Europe is thus basically being assigned the role of a follower of the US at best. The "global South" and other countries, with the exception of Russia, are mere spectators. </p>
<p>US politicians continue to be intransigent with regard to China. Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/04/politics/nikki-haley-cnn-town-hall-takeaways/index.html">Republican presidential candidate in 2024</a>, announced in September 2023 that she considered China "an enemy". </p>
<p>While the official US tone towards China has been gradually softening recently, measures to vigorously contain China are continuing and even intensifying. In a New York Times Magazine <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/magazine/semiconductor-chips-us-china.html">article</a> from12 July 2023 entitled ... </p>
<p>“<i>’An Act of War’: Inside America’s Silicon Blockade Against China</i>,” Alex W Palmer declared: “<i>If the controls are successful, they could handicap China for a generation; if they fail, they may backfire spectacularly, hastening the very future the United States is trying desperately to avoid</i>.” </p>
<p>American Enterprises maintain a more pragmatic approach. They have multiple incentives for staying in China. But in the end, few options for evasion remain and business eventually has to follow politics. For Europe, and Germany in particular, the European de-risking approach harbours its own risks. </p>
<p>As far as the Chinese economy is concerned, it will suffer considerably from the various sanctions, at least in the short and medium term. In addition, the long-term, downright turbulent growth to date is being bought with all kinds of market distortions and bad investments. Even if major geopolitical upheavals are ruled out, China's economy can be expected to remain in the doldrums for another ten to twenty years. </p>
<p>Since, according to the theories of great power politics, both countries are stuck in a geopolitical trap from which there is no easy escape, a major confrontation cannot be ruled out. There is no sign of the tensions easing. All measures short of war are conceivable. Minor miscalculations could well lead to a catastrophic conflict. </p>
<p>None of the pressing problems facing humanity, such as climate change, the sixth extinction of species, dwindling resources, ominously growing inequality or the growing threat of local and not-so-local conflicts, can be solved in this situation. </p>
<p>At the moment, we cannot be sure which country to place more hope in, China or the USA, if either of the two candidates. </p>
<p>However, a truly united Europe, pursuing its own interests without losing sight of the pressing challenges facing humanity as a whole, could play a mediating role. </p>
<p>Will Europe wake up one day and finally find its own way? </p>Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-56104286830698670332023-09-05T19:06:00.001+02:002023-09-06T07:46:13.323+02:00On realism, liberalism, and constructivism <p>An intellectual discourse with – well, ChatGPT of course.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZfISTU56vBNUQ0t4jKqs4HsvzqXrduAZc4XNtqi_GZ5yvB60kkatL9SErKzQHBdGU7TwLoZszPgz0DEatU1fLz2oMfF68EZVGXk-ZxoXmgdvdR3xKWqpGIU9XH9GsxKNhx6QQMzO3O_5azFOpZ4RSoo1c3jnyHex7375ia7agz-11DcIo2GiI/s1354/2023-09-05_On%20realism,%20liberalism%20&%20constructivism_0.01.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1354" data-original-width="1080" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZfISTU56vBNUQ0t4jKqs4HsvzqXrduAZc4XNtqi_GZ5yvB60kkatL9SErKzQHBdGU7TwLoZszPgz0DEatU1fLz2oMfF68EZVGXk-ZxoXmgdvdR3xKWqpGIU9XH9GsxKNhx6QQMzO3O_5azFOpZ4RSoo1c3jnyHex7375ia7agz-11DcIo2GiI/w319-h400/2023-09-05_On%20realism,%20liberalism%20&%20constructivism_0.01.jpg" width="319" /></a></div>
<p>Triggered by a statement … </p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #2b00fe;">“There are three major schools of thought within American international relations theory: realism, liberalism and constructivism, each of which essentially serves U.S. hegemony and leadership.” </span></i></p>
<p>… found in today’s <a href="https://www.sinification.com/">sinification</a> newsletter by Thomas des Garets Geddes, I was looking for some orientation, which, I have to confess, I was missing.</p>
<p>You might blame me for not knowing it better than to turn to ChatGPT with my instantly arising questions. Nevertheless, I deem its responses interesting enough to share them with those willing to read through the following ~ 2658 words.</p>
<h1>What are they about?</h1>
<h2>Me:</h2>
<p><i>Could you please briefly explain the core theories of American scholarship: realism, liberalism, and constructivism?</i></p>
<h2>ChatGPT</h2>
<p>Certainly! Realism, liberalism, and constructivism are three of the central theories in international relations scholarship. Each offers a unique lens through which to understand state behaviour and the dynamics of the international system.</p>
<h3><b>1.</b><b>Realism</b></h3>
<ul>
<li><b>Core Idea</b>:<br />States are the primary actors in international relations, and their actions are driven by the pursuit of power and the need for security.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Assumptions</b>:<br />
<ul>
<li>The international system is anarchic, meaning there is no central authority to govern state actions.</li>
<li>States are rational actors, always seeking to maximize their own national interest, primarily defined in terms of power and security.</li>
<li>Conflict is inevitable because of the inherent nature of international politics.<br /><br /></li>
</ul></li>
<li><b>Key Concepts</b>:<br /> Balance of power (states align to prevent one state from becoming too powerful), security dilemma (measures taken by one state to increase its security often decrease the security of others).<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Notable Scholars</b>:<br /> Thucydides, Hans Morgenthau, Kenneth Waltz, John Mearsheimer.</li>
</ul>
<h3><b>2.</b><b>Liberalism</b></h3>
<ul>
<li><b>Core Idea</b>: <br />Cooperation among states is possible and can lead to a more peaceful and prosperous global order.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Assumptions</b>:</li>
<ul>
<li>States are not the only important actors; international institutions, non-governmental organizations, and global commerce play significant roles.</li>
<li>Interdependence (especially economic) can reduce the chance of conflict as the costs of conflict increase.</li>
<li>Democracy and free trade can be paths to peace, as democratic states and those deeply embedded in the global economy are less likely to go to war with each other.<br /><br /></li>
</ul>
<li><b>Key Concepts</b>: <br />Democratic peace theory (democracies are less likely to fight each other), international institutions (like the United Nations or World Trade Organization), economic interdependence.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Notable Scholars</b>: <br />Immanuel Kant, Woodrow Wilson, Robert Keohane.</li>
</ul>
<h3><b>3.</b><b>Constructivism</b></h3>
<ul>
<li><b>Core Idea</b>: <br />The behaviours and interests of states are shaped by socially constructed norms, ideas, and beliefs, rather than only by material interests.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Assumptions</b>:</li>
<ul>
<li>The key structures in the international system are not just material (e.g., military power) but also ideational (e.g., beliefs, identities, norms).</li>
<li>State interests are not fixed but can be shaped over time by these ideational factors.</li>
<li>International norms and institutions can change state behaviour by shaping their identities and interests.<br /><br /></li>
</ul>
<li><b>Key Concepts</b>: <br />Norm entrepreneurs (individuals or groups that promote certain norms), the role of non-state actors in shaping state identity and behaviour, the idea that anarchy is what states make of it.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Notable Scholars</b>: <br />Alexander Wendt, Kathryn Sikkink, Martha Finnemore.</li>
</ul>
<p>While these summaries are concise, each of these theories has rich literature and nuanced arguments. Scholars often combine elements from different theories to create more comprehensive explanations for specific phenomena in international relations.</p>
<h1>Proponents and Publications</h1>
<h2>Me:</h2>
<p><i> Thank you very much. Could you please add the primary scholars and their most important publications? </i></p>
<h2>ChatGPT</h2>
<p>Of course! Let's delve deeper into each theory and highlight some of the seminal works by key scholars:</p>
<h3><b>1.</b><b>Realism</b></h3>
<ul>
<li><b>Hans Morgenthau:</b> <i>Politics Among Nations</i> (1948)<br />This book is foundational for the study of classical realism. Morgenthau emphasizes the role of power in international politics.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Kenneth Waltz</b>: <i>Theory of International Politics</i> (1979)<br />Here, Waltz introduces structural realism (or neorealism), arguing that the international system's structure, characterized by anarchy, shapes the behaviour of states.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>John Mearsheimer</b>: <i>The Tragedy of Great Power Politics</i> (2001)<br />Mearsheimer explores offensive realism, suggesting that great powers are always looking to maximize their share of world power.</li>
</ul>
<h3><b>2.</b><b>Liberalism</b></h3>
<ul>
<li><b>Immanuel Kant:</b> <i>Perpetual Peace: A Philosophical Sketch</i> (1795)<br />Kant argues for the pacifying effects of democracy, trade, and international organizations.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Woodrow Wilson</b>:<br />Although Wilson was not primarily an academic, his Fourteen Points and subsequent endeavours lay the groundwork for liberal internationalism.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Robert Keohane</b>: <i>After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy</i> (1984)<br />Keohane discusses how international cooperation can continue even after a hegemonic power declines. He emphasizes the role of international institutions in facilitating cooperation.</li>
</ul>
<h3><b>3. </b><b>Constructivism</b></h3>
<ul>
<li><b>Alexander Wendt</b>: <i>Social Theory of International Politics</i> (1999)<br />A foundational text for constructivism. Wendt argues that state behaviours are driven by socially constructed norms and identities. His famous assertion, "anarchy is what states make of it," captures the essence of constructivism.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Kathryn Sikkink</b>: <i>The Power of Human Rights: International Norms and Domestic Change</i> (1999, co-authored with Thomas Risse and Stephen C. Ropp)<br />This work investigates how international norms influence state behaviour, particularly in the realm of human rights.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Martha Finnemore</b>: <i>National Interests in International Society</i> (1996)<br />Finnemore examines how international norms influence state interests and behaviours, with a focus on areas like the Red Cross and UNESCO.</li>
</ul>
<p>These publications and authors represent just a fraction of the vast literature on international relations theory. Still, they're among the most influential in their respective areas. If you're looking to delve deeper into the subject, these works would be a great place to start.</p>
<h1>How do these theories relate to each other’s? </h1>
<h2>Me:</h2>
<p><i>Are these theories competing or complementary? In which aspects do they come to similar conclusions, where do they contradict each other’s ? </i></p>
<h2>ChatGPT</h2>
<p>The theories of realism, liberalism, and constructivism in international relations (IR) can be both competing and complementary, depending on the specific context and the aspect of international relations under scrutiny. Each provides a lens through which to understand and interpret international events, but they prioritize different factors and come to distinct conclusions about the behaviour of states.</p>
<h3><b>1.</b><b>Realism:</b></h3>
<ul>
<li><b>Primary Assumption</b>:<br />States are the primary actors in international politics and they act based on national interests, primarily power and security.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Primary Focus</b>:<br />Anarchy, power, balance of power, security dilemma.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Primary Conclusions</b>:<br />Cooperation is difficult due to inherent mistrust among states, and power and security considerations dominate international actions.</li>
</ul>
<h3><b>2.</b><b>Liberalism:</b></h3>
<ul>
<li><b>Primary Assumption</b>:<br />A variety of actors (states, NGOs, IGOs) play important roles in international politics, and cooperation is possible through institutions, democratic governance, and interdependence.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Primary Focus</b>:<br />International institutions, international law, interdependence, democracy.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Primary Conclusions</b>:<br />International cooperation is achievable and can be institutionalized. Democracies are less likely to fight each other (Democratic Peace Theory). </li>
</ul>
<h3><b>3.</b><b>Constructivism:</b></h3>
<ul>
<li><b>Primary Assumption</b>:<br />The international system is constituted by ideas, norms, and beliefs. State behavior is driven by these social constructs rather than just material capabilities or interests.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Primary Focus</b>:<br />Norms, identity, social structures.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Primary Conclusions</b>:<br />State interests are not fixed but shaped by international norms and identities. Anarchy's meaning and implications are determined by state interactions and their shared understandings.</li>
</ul>
<p><b>Where They Come to Similar Conclusions:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><b>Realism </b>and <b>Liberalism</b>:<br />Both acknowledge the state of anarchy in the international system, even though they disagree about its implications. They both also recognize the importance of power, but they differ on how power is utilized and for what ends.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Liberalism </b>and <b>Constructivism</b>:<br />Both emphasize the importance of non-material power and accept the potential for change in the international system. They see the possibility of cooperation and the influence of norms, institutions, and interdependence.</li>
</ul>
<p><b>Where They Contradict Each Other:</b></p>
<ul>
<li><b>Realism </b>vs.<b> Liberalism</b>:<br />While realism focuses on conflict and competition, asserting that the pursuit of power and national interest often leads to conflicts, liberalism is more optimistic about cooperation, especially through international institutions and interdependence.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Realism</b> vs.<b> Constructivism</b>:<br />Realism sees interests as somewhat fixed (primarily around power and security), while constructivism argues interests are malleable and shaped by social interactions and norms.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Liberalism </b>vs.<b> Constructivism</b>:<br />Liberalism tends to emphasize the role of institutions and structures more rigidly, while constructivism focuses on the fluid nature of norms and how they evolve.</li>
</ul>
<p>While these theories offer different perspectives, they can be complementary. Scholars and policymakers can use them together to gain a comprehensive understanding of international events, combining the strengths of one theory with the insights of another. This integrative approach is often found in the multidimensional analyses of complex international situations.</p>
<h1>The outside world perception</h1>
<h2>Me:</h2>
<p><i>These views seem to be dominated by the view of US scholars. How is the perception of the outside world? Are there any major discontents which have gained or could gain a considerable weight?</i></p>
<h2>ChatGPT</h2>
<p>You're correct in noting that the theories of realism, liberalism, and constructivism, as commonly taught and understood, have their roots in Western (primarily U.S.) academic traditions. However, scholars from outside the West have made significant contributions to International Relations (IR) theory, and they have often critiqued or complemented these dominant paradigms with perspectives informed by different cultural, historical, and geopolitical contexts.</p>
<p>Several alternative or complementary approaches and critiques from outside the Western-centric view include:</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Postcolonialism:</b> <br />Postcolonial scholars argue that the dominant IR theories often neglect the histories and experiences of former colonies and overlook the ways in which colonial legacies continue to shape international politics. These scholars emphasize the need to decolonize the study and practice of IR.<br /><br /><i>Prominent Scholar:</i> Edward Said (his work "Orientalism" critiques the Western representation of the East).<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Dependency Theory:</b> <br />Originating from Latin American critiques of development, this theory posits that the global economic system is structured to benefit the developed core (mainly Western nations) while keeping the underdeveloped periphery (mainly Southern nations) in a state of dependence.<br /><br /><i>Prominent Scholar:</i> Fernando Henrique Cardoso<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>World-Systems Theory:</b> <br />This perspective sees the world as a single system, divided into a core, periphery, and semi-periphery. It critiques global capitalism and its structure.<br /><br /><i>Prominent Scholar:</i> Immanuel Wallerstein<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Non-Western Traditions of Diplomacy and Statecraft:</b> Different civilizations have their own traditions of diplomacy, strategy, and statecraft. For instance, China's ancient strategic traditions (found in texts like the "Art of War" by Sun Tzu) and India's Arthashastra (an ancient treatise on statecraft) offer perspectives on power, diplomacy, and strategy that differ from Western norms.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Critical Theory:</b> While not exclusively non-Western, critical theory challenges the mainstream methodologies and assumptions in IR, arguing for a more reflective and self-critical approach to understanding global politics.<br /><br /><i>Prominent Scholar:</i> Robert W. Cox<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Islamic IR Theory:</b> Some scholars have begun to explore how Islamic traditions and teachings can inform an understanding of international relations, especially in the context of the Muslim world.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Southern Theory:</b> This approach emphasizes the viewpoints and experiences of the Global South in IR, asserting that their experiences and perspectives are crucial for a comprehensive understanding of global politics.<br /><br /><i>Prominent Scholar:</i> Raewyn Connell</li>
</ol>
<p>There's an ongoing debate about the universality of Western IR theories. While some argue that these theories have universal applicability, others believe they are deeply rooted in the specific historical and cultural experiences of the West. The growing influence of non-Western powers, especially in Asia, suggests that the field of IR will continue to evolve and incorporate a broader range of perspectives in the future.</p>
<p>As non-Western nations like China, India, Brazil, and South Africa become more influential on the global stage, their scholars, diplomats, and policymakers will bring new perspectives and challenge existing paradigms in IR. These new views will be informed by their own historical experiences, cultural traditions, and geopolitical contexts.</p>
<h1>Observable trends </h1>
<h2>Me:</h2>
<p><i>Thank you for the rich insight. Finally, what can you say about recent observable trends? Is there evidence that the acceptance of those three leading US originated theories may shift globally and within the US? Or are there indicators to watch hinting us at the non-US theories becoming more prevalent in the near future? </i></p>
<h2>ChatGPT</h2>
<p>Indeed, the world of International Relations (IR) theory has been evolving. While the "big three" theories (realism, liberalism, and constructivism) originating from the U.S. continue to play a significant role in the study and practice of international affairs, various recent trends suggest that the field is becoming more diversified and globalized:</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Rise of Non-Western Powers:</b><br />The ascendance of countries like China, India, Brazil, and South Africa on the global stage is resulting in new perspectives and approaches to international politics. As these countries become more influential, they also bring in their unique historical, cultural, and geopolitical understandings which challenge the traditionally dominant Western narratives.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Globalization of Academic Discourse:</b><br />Thanks to technology and the interconnectedness of the global academic community, ideas now flow more freely across borders. This means that non-Western scholars have a larger platform to present alternative theories, and these ideas are gaining traction.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Transnational Issues:</b><br />Global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, cybersecurity threats, and transnational terrorism defy traditional state-centric models of IR. These issues require cooperative solutions and offer a challenge to the more traditional power-centric perspectives of realism.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Post-Cold War Dynamics:</b><br />The end of the Cold War reshaped international dynamics. While some scholars believed that liberal democracies would become the norm (e.g., the "End of History" thesis by Francis Fukuyama), recent events like the rise of populism, increasing authoritarianism, and shifting alliances hint at a more complex global landscape.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Self-Reflective Turn in Academia:</b><br />There's an increasing recognition in academic circles, especially among younger scholars, of the need to de-centre the Western perspective in IR and to recognize the richness and validity of non-Western traditions and experiences.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Public Engagement and Populism:</b><br />With the rise of populism in various parts of the world, including the U.S. and Europe, there's an increased scepticism of established norms and institutions. This includes scepticism toward traditional international institutions and alliances, which are often rooted in liberal internationalist principles.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Pragmatic Shifts in Policy:</b><br />Real-world policy decisions often don't strictly follow any one theoretical framework. For example, despite its realist or unilateral inclinations, the U.S.'s recent engagements in global health (e.g., COVID-19 pandemic response) or climate change discussions suggest elements of liberal and constructivist thought.</li>
</ol>
<p><b>Indicators to Watch:</b></p>
<ol>
<li><b>IR Curriculum Globally:</b><br />A change in the curriculum in major universities around the world to incorporate or emphasize non-Western theories would be a significant indicator.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Foreign Policy Decisions:</b><br />Monitor how emerging powers frame and justify their foreign policy decisions. Are they using a language or framework that deviates from traditional Western theories?<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Global Forums and Platforms:</b><br />Observe the discourse in major global forums like the United Nations, World Economic Forum, etc. Are alternative perspectives gaining more prominence?<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Publications and Citations:</b><br />The frequency with which non-Western scholars are published in major journals and the citations they receive can be an indicator of shifting academic paradigms.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Establishment of New International Institutions:</b><br />The creation of institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) by China suggests alternative models to traditionally Western-dominated institutions like the IMF or World Bank.</li>
</ol>
<p>In conclusion, while the dominant U.S.-originated theories will likely continue to play a major role in IR for the foreseeable future, the landscape is definitely shifting. The multipolar nature of today's world, combined with the challenges of transnational issues and the rise of non-Western powers, ensures that the field of IR will become more pluralistic and diversified.</p>
<h1>Epilogue (kind of)</h1>
<p>Although no one can be sure how trustworthy the responses of these prime representative of the new A.I. megafauna may be, which is currently roaming the world of accessible knowledge, they nevertheless represent a majority view based on a selected but wide knowledge base.</p>
<p>Fun fact: You might have noticed that I do my best to maintain a decent language and try to engage in a polite discussion with the Chat Bot. In doing so I hope to receive a better rating in the suspected “social scoring” system tracking the user’s behaviour in the background. So once A.I. will take over, ruling the world, my chances of survival will increase. :-)</p><p> Wouldn’t this be a good starting point for a full-fledged conspiration theory? Well, that’s input to the next possible contribution already.
</p>
Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-83168409664398777382023-07-15T20:39:00.000+02:002023-07-15T20:39:11.403+02:00 Keyu Jin - The new China Playbook<p><br /></p><p class="MsoTitle"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKJFNGgo9MqOC13NU7OeSOodRVJV8wZopWr6lts_8sJnc89gSQiF8MMsKAoeUf17lCqCCIV-otV8X2OBb32NDbE4XI76ak1AjU2tLB2j8tLQxY8RT-gyAhDWa8CgKjv-rVhUm5Oh5bMG52tC9S79e6Yf05KAYrRhQrvDn4Zd0MoOV63xf9ydim/s2560/The%20new%20China%20Playbook.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2560" data-original-width="1696" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKJFNGgo9MqOC13NU7OeSOodRVJV8wZopWr6lts_8sJnc89gSQiF8MMsKAoeUf17lCqCCIV-otV8X2OBb32NDbE4XI76ak1AjU2tLB2j8tLQxY8RT-gyAhDWa8CgKjv-rVhUm5Oh5bMG52tC9S79e6Yf05KAYrRhQrvDn4Zd0MoOV63xf9ydim/s320/The%20new%20China%20Playbook.jpg" width="212" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I have just read Keyu Jin's "The new China
Playbook" - and I am impressed.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">To my surprise, nothing in this book surprised me.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Although I absorb every bit of information, I can get my
hands on to build a more realistic and complete picture of China's past and
present - a gift I suspect few in the West possess to any satisfactory degree -
this book did more to achieve that goal than a whole host of others before it.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As an expert and scholar, Keyu was nothing new to me. I have
listened to some of her posts on YouTube and read some of the articles she has
written. It was always a pleasure to follow her unagitated words, which rather
casually convey insights that other authors have to go to more trouble for.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">This has a lot to do with her easy-to-understand,
straightforward language and her precise way of expressing herself, which would
suit many other experts in her field. Few authors succeed in treating this
controversial and often misunderstood subject with such unexcited words.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As an ethnic Chinese who grew up in China at a time of
dramatic change but received most of her schooling and academic training in the
West, in the US and UK, she has one foot in each of the two worlds that are
becoming increasingly estranged.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Keyu is an economist by profession and "it's the
economy, stupid" - so perhaps she had the right academic tools at hand to
add some coherent details to my still rough picture of the situation in China.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The book is neatly composed of 10 chapters, which could
stand alone but make even more sense in the order presented.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">For example, after reading the 3<sup>rd</sup> chapter on the
one-child policy generation, I had gained a much more convincing insight into
the economic and social implications than I ever had from any previous reading
on the subject.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Rather unusually for a work written from an economic
perspective, Chapter 4 even reads like an action thriller in places.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Keyu Jin discusses here in a very balanced way issues that
elsewhere lead to quite controversial, heated and seemingly irresolvable
antagonisms. She does not avoid controversial issues but addresses them
courageously and, to my opinion, with appropriate and well-placed words.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">She does so in an unagitated, not particularly academically flavoured
and thus easily understandable language. This makes reading the book - at least
for me - a pleasure. Nevertheless, I resisted the temptation to read it in one
go.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">On the contrary, I took my time reading this book, had to
take my time. Because after each of the ten chapters, I first had to reflect on
what I had read and integrate it into my existing knowledge.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Their arguments seem so convincing that I wonder how they might
resonate in mainland China, leading to either rejection or acceptance.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the current tense geopolitical situation, a lot is
written about China, but little of it contributes to deepening knowledge. Most
of the articles range from poorly researched misinformation to outright war
propaganda.</p>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">In this heated situation, Keyu Jin's book reads
pleasantly objectively. A rare voice of reason speaks here. In the end, its
very existence might be sufficient reason for me to be surprised.</span>Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-52015020476313936732023-06-23T18:27:00.000+02:002023-06-23T18:27:38.005+02:00Felled by fear<h4 style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: navz;">One by one they disappear</span></h4>
<p><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlU--Yy3UaLmOX75_NfDNToyN7xrIeiIF92qQMcFrQRkHbouUqJLBzq608OA91PAPEio15xOn_BzGGaAFdfB1_IltadJyOE9IuEACjdLXNTxb9Sgc1rEBRCbHUaFd7LM3X10DMBfMMTIxOK4hUopUps9O08JMqtUEIVTyvtIREo_16LhYsHhiY/s4080/2023-05-22_130318359.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4080" data-original-width="3072" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlU--Yy3UaLmOX75_NfDNToyN7xrIeiIF92qQMcFrQRkHbouUqJLBzq608OA91PAPEio15xOn_BzGGaAFdfB1_IltadJyOE9IuEACjdLXNTxb9Sgc1rEBRCbHUaFd7LM3X10DMBfMMTIxOK4hUopUps9O08JMqtUEIVTyvtIREo_16LhYsHhiY/w482-h640/2023-05-22_130318359.jpg" width="482" /></a></b></div><p></p><p>Figure 1: City Streets like cathedrals - The Adalbertstraße in Hamburg - as it once looked like.</p>
<div style="border: 1px solid navy; margin: 10px; padding: 10px;">
<p><i><b>"I don't understand how you can walk past a tree and not be happy to see it.</b></i>"</p>
<p align="right">Fyodor Dostoevsky</p>
</div>
<p>I was blessed with living in the privileged western suburbs of Hamburg for a while, enjoying on one of the greenest and tree rich, yet well city linked, places in the world. Thanks to the gardening passion of the wealthy founding generation during Hamburg’s golden age - and of course because, some centuries of have passed by now – you may walk for kilometres under the canopy of huge old trees through quiet residential streets over here. </p>
<p>But this picture seems to change dramatically now. Returning there after having spent some years abroad, I but had to recognise some disturbing changes going on. And they even accelerated during recent years. The treasure trove of big and hundreds of years old trees in this urban living space for those who can afford it, was looted gradually but conceivably year by year. </p>
<p>What has happened? Why do the citizens of Hamburg so thoughtlessly discard their irreplaceable natural riches? Aren’t we living in times when we should value the “<i>beechen green, and shadows numberless</i>”<a href="#_edn1" name="_ednref1" title="">[i]</a>even more than ever? Shouldn’t we be grateful for having these natural means of carbon sequestration next to us on our ever-heating planet?</p>
<p>Hamburg also a windy region and we are used to occasional heavy storms. Last year in autumn not very surprisingly one of these storms blew across the country. Twigs and branches poured down on to streets, gardens and parking cars. Some trees even fell and caused damages.</p>
<p>So, for the following weeks the air was filled with the noise of chainsaws and even heavier equipment to clear the mess. While this could have been expected and had happened before, to my surprise they did not stop there. Large, healthy, magnificent trees that had yet survived this violent storm had to breathe out their lives in a long row during the following months.</p>
<p>So, what was going on there? </p>
<h3 style="text-align: left;">The dark side of the German soul</h3>
<p>To come closer to an answer, we have to dig a bit deeper - deeper into the collective German soul. We Germans have an obsession: everything must be ordered and under control. Especially for everything that could happen, someone must be responsible. There must be someone to blame for, to be guilty. And he has to pay.</p>
<p>When potholes bloom on the road andour cargets damagedbecause we carelessly ran into some of them, we are entitled tosuethe city council with a decent chance of being successful.</p>
<p>When in winter times house owners or residents fail to fulfil their obligation to clear the pavement from snow and ice and / or to strew sand or salt and the postman breaks his leg, the delinquent will be liable to pay compensation.</p>
<p>And of course, the same principle has to apply, when a tree falls down, causing some damage.</p>
<p>Well, as damages occurred, someone has to pay compensation to someone. It is surely not acceptable to cite force majeure here. After all we pay our taxes to the state as if we wanted to buy ourselves out of all risks and all personal responsibility. In return, we expect an all-round carefree package.</p>
<h3 style="text-align: left;">Hamburg’s new tree protection ordinance</h3>
<p>Compared to other cities and municipalities, Hamburg still has one of the most progressive tree protection ordinances in terms of the preservation of the existing trees and hedges in Hamburg's territory. By 28 February 2023 the Senate of Hamburg even replaced its old tree protection ordinance dating back to 1948 (which by the way was Germany’s first one) now containing more precise regulations<a href="#_edn2" name="_ednref2" title="">[ii]</a>. </p>
<p>According to these, trees are protected as landscape features if they have a trunk circumference of 80 cm or more at a height of 1.30 meters. The waiver of a height limit for hedges between neighbouring properties seems downright revolutionary, since interfering in the neighbour's garden design is one of the favourite German - and probably internationally widespread - traits and one of the most frequent causes of the usual socially typical neighbourly disputes.</p>
<p>The new ordinance makes administrative action much more transparent and further standardized. For tree felling, replacement plantings must be carried out. The replacement requirement for felling a tree is determined in detail according to a point scheme based on tree type, trunk circumference, crown diameter and condition, taking into account possible surcharges and deductions. </p>
<p>No permit is required for the obvious, for example, the removal of fallen trees, keeping public paths free of overgrowing hedges, keeping the walls of buildings free of branches and twigs, as well as traffic safety measures on railway facilities.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, exceptions and loophole remain. Thus, felling permits are issued if, for example, the tree or hedge is diseased or if the stability or breakage safety of the tree or hedge is no longer given and the resulting dangers to persons or property of considerable value cannot be remedied by other means with reasonable effort. There is obviously considerable scope for subjective assessments here.</p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether this ordinance will be able to stop the creeping deforestation of the otherwise so green city.</p>
<p>After all Hamburg is known for its green spaces, including numerous parks, gardens, and the famous man-made Alster Lakes right in the middle of the city. The city has implemented a number of environmental initiatives and was even named the European Green Capital in 2011 by the European Commission. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijf9KQ_-mxomaWWSVT-cmw7E9tM0X-T5We8IheLbz1JhbpRPyB689KbHqO1hUVYkOKmd7Y_SwsnOvnC1_t40CYTPsxRMyVMk6K_s6BMPmpECK9-1pX2Bh2xh79nF6n0CrDE4GKmKbbPLw5EIUNGMEkO4WKC45JmkQUH8Dao-xn-DUohAgxuaSS/s672/2020-09-28%2015.42.52.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="672" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijf9KQ_-mxomaWWSVT-cmw7E9tM0X-T5We8IheLbz1JhbpRPyB689KbHqO1hUVYkOKmd7Y_SwsnOvnC1_t40CYTPsxRMyVMk6K_s6BMPmpECK9-1pX2Bh2xh79nF6n0CrDE4GKmKbbPLw5EIUNGMEkO4WKC45JmkQUH8Dao-xn-DUohAgxuaSS/w640-h480/2020-09-28%2015.42.52.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>Figure 2: After storm damage has been removed, the carnage begins in the first place.</p>
<h3 style="text-align: left;">Does being insured mean assurance as well?</h3>
<p>There are in addition two major adverse factors driving towards the opposite direction: the unholy influence of insurance companies and the influx of staunchly anti-nature rural folks. </p>
<p>Let’s take insurance companies <b>first</b>. In principle not godfather or any other higher divine power is liable for damages caused by trees standing on the landowners’ property, but he himself. As trees or parts of them may crash cars parked next to the landowner’s ground and given the common German predilection for expensive cars, refunding these damages might hurt the financial status of those who have to pay. </p>
<p>Luckily however, some insurance companies offer financial coverage for these unforeseeable misfortunes. There is a catch however. Insurance companies are most successful and profitable if they manage to sell their policies but find ways not to be liable covering the damage, once it occurs. </p>
<p>For example, the insurance may be obliged to pay only if the tree fell due to a storm and not if it did due to old age or illness. But how do you know? </p>
<p>First of all, what insurances might offer coverage? Well, there are …</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Home Building Insurances</b>, which might step n once a tree or a branch fall on your home or another structure (like a garage) and causes damage, your home building insurance might cover the damage.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Home Contents Insurances </b>on the other hand could compensate for damages, if personal items are damaged by falling trees or branches.<br /><br /></li>
<li>If a tree or a branch however causes damage on a neighbour’s property or injures someone, the <b>Property Owner's Liability Insurance </b>could cover the associated costs.<br /><br /></li>
<li>In some cases, there may be <b>special insurances </b>that specifically pertain to trees or large plants on your property. These could compensate for damages caused by falling trees or dropping branches.</li>
</ol>
<p>Below let’s have a look to the caveats, as the insurance policy can have many different conditions and exclusions, varying depending on the specific policy or the country you are living in. Some common conditions and exclusions might be ...</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Regular care and maintenance</b>: Often landowners or tree owners are expected to check and maintain their trees regularly. This could mean making sure that the trees are healthy and stable and that they show no obvious signs of disease or damage that could cause them to fall over. If the owner neglects these duties, the insurance company could refuse to cover any damage caused by a falling tree.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Act of nature</b>: Many policies cover damage caused by "acts of nature", such as storms or floods. However, if the tree or branch falls due to natural ageing or disease rather than a specific event, the insurance might not pay.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Negligence</b>: if the landowner or tree owner is negligent and this leads to the damage, the insurance company could potentially refuse to pay. Negligence could mean, for example, that the owner knew the tree was unstable but did nothing to remove or stabilise it.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Force majeure</b>: Some policies might have an exclusion for damage due to force majeure, such as war, terrorism or certain types of natural disasters.</li>
</ol>
<p>So, when the landowner agrees to obediently fulfil the obligations incurred to him by the insurance contract, he still to deliver proof that he has complied with the contractual obligations e.g. by ...</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Maintenance records</b>: He has to keep regular maintenance records for his trees. This may include records of regular inspections, work done (such as pruning, treating diseases, etc.), and discussions with professionals.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Photographs</b>: He might be well advised regularly taking Photographs of his trees to document their condition. This can be particularly helpful if there is visible evidence that you have taken steps to address potential problems (such as removing an infested branch).<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Professionals</b>: To consult professionals such as arborists or tree experts to assess the condition of his trees and recommend measures for their care or treatment counts as another precautionary activity. <br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Documentation</b>: Keeping records of experts’ consultations and any work carried out in order to properly document the care and maintenance of his trees handy is a common advice too. This could be invoices for tree care, reports from professionals, purchase receipts for equipment or materials, etc.</li>
</ol>
<p>The key is to carefully keep records and show that you have been proactive in caring for and monitoring your trees. Running a crocodile farm on your ground probably couldn’t be regarded as being of higher risk.</p>
<p>Depending on the type of inspection, the size and number of trees or the type of tree care, the costs for preventive monitoring and maintenance measures can vary greatly. In any case, they are not low.</p>
<p>In Germany, the costs of a tree inspection can range from 50 to 200 euros per tree, depending on the scope and complexity of the inspection. Tree maintenance itself may cost between 100 and several thousand euros, depending on the scope of the work. For example, felling a large tree can cost more than 1000 euros.</p>
<p>In view of the variety of threats, obligations and requirements, and the high annual costs, many a landowner in his distress may make the desperate decision to simply remove all trees, freely following the manner of the Dutch tree philistine in Portugal, that a tree may not grow much taller than a man.</p>
<p>The approach to remove all trees from your property could certainly eliminate some of the risks associated with falling trees or branches. However, it is important to also consider the potential disadvantages or problems that could be associated with this action:</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Environmental impact</b>: Very obviously trees play an important role in the ecosystem, even the urban one. They absorb carbon dioxide, produce oxygen, provide habitat for animals and contribute to soil stability. Their removal will negatively impact the environment.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Aesthetic values</b>: The frightened may not see I, but trees often contribute to the beauty and attractiveness of a property. Removing trees can affect the appearance and attractiveness of the veery property and possibly reduce its value.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Legal requirements</b>: In some areas like in Hamburg, laws or ordinances may restrict the cutting of trees. You may need a permit to remove trees, especially if they are of a certain size or are a protected species. Failure to comply with these regulations may result in harsh penalties.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Climatic impact</b>: Trees provide shade, which can help lower temperatures in and around your home during the warmer months. Without them, it will get hotter.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Cost</b>: Finally, removing trees can be expensive too, especially if they are large or difficult to access.</li>
</ol>
<p>Those who, like the fearless seafaring merchants of Hamburg 200 to 300 years ago, were not accustomed to living with risks all their lives, may be struck by pusillanimity and despondency here at the latest.</p>
<h3 style="text-align: left;">The influence of the staunchly anti-nature rural folks</h3>
<p>The<b>Second</b>influence can be attributed to a changing demographic: country folks moving to the metropoles in search of jobs and entertainment are now going to deforest the cities too after they vastly succeeded out there in the countryside.</p>
<p>Did you ever ask yourself the question why animals tend to move to the cities, when they should have much better conditions out there in the field and woods? Well, there must be reasons for that.</p>
<p>Some point at the food availability, as urban areas can provide a steady and easily accessible food source for some animals. Trash bins, dumpsters, and discarded food in cities can be attractive to certain species, such as scavengers like foxes, wild boars, raccoons (yes, they meanwhile aren’t uncommon any longer in Germany) or pigeons.</p>
<p>Others, less convincingly, hint at modified landscapes with parks, gardens, and green spaces. Yes, these areas can provide refuge and resources for wildlife. A stronger argument might be the absence of otherwise ubiquitous hunters within densely populated areas. And in addition, some animal species possess or developed the ability to adapt and thrive in urban environments. They cope with human presence, noise, and pollution. They may also have the ability to exploit urban resources efficiently. </p>
<p>The main reason however is habitat loss. As agricultural land is exploited more intensively, railway embankments and roadsides become desolate and ecologically useless through herbicide use, and villages strive to give themselves an urban character, wildlife finds less and less habitat, food and shelter there. This loss of natural habitat forces animals to seek alternative environments, including urban areas, in search of food, shelter, and survival.</p>
<p>Even if we prefer to ignore reality and instead enjoy the fact that we now have to clean the windows of our vehicles of smashed insects much less often than we remember from our childhood, the truth is that the 6th great and global extinction of species has long been in full swing outside the gates of our cities in the now ecologically largely devastated countryside.</p>
<h3 style="text-align: left;">Tree “maintenance”</h3>
<p>So-called tree maintenance is a sham measure that ostensibly serves to protect the trees, but in reality, is there to avoid having to take responsibility for damage in any case. </p>
<p>The battle cry here is "infested. Trees that harbour a rich ecosystem of small creatures are often particularly valuable ecologically. They provide habitats for a variety of organisms, including birds, insects, bats and a wide range of microorganisms. Indeed, the diversity and abundance of living organisms that a single tree can harbour can be astonishing.</p>
<p>This recognition of its ecological value, however, is at the same time its death sentence. Who wants to guarantee or even be liable for is vote that these cute little micro-organisms, which may represent the starting point of an entire food chain, do not end up in a particular type of pest or disease that potentially threatens its health or stability. Out of sheer caution that particular tree might rather be considered as 'infested' and is thus already doomed.</p>
<p>The balancing act of navigating between protecting the health and safety of people and buildings versus preserving ecologically valuable trees is irredeemably tilted towards not taking responsibility. Notwithstanding the fact that in many cases it is possible to treat or manage trees affected by pests or diseases without removing them completely, in many cases, human pusillanimity usually wins out. The trees will be felled by fear.</p>
<p>So, year after year, municipal saw crews equipped with impressive tools set out to keep the street green in check. As a testimony to the fact that they have been active after all, they remove at least one larger branch from each tree year after year. In doing so, they remove more than would have had the chance to grow back during that period of time. As a result, all street trees, and also those on private property, regardless of their natural growth shape, are remodelled into characteristic mushroom appearance over time. As they also become more and more unsightly and end up standing like lonely paintbrushes in the landscape, the "tree caretakers" eventually take pity on them and remove them altogether. </p>
<p>It would be more honest to call tree maintenance tree mutilation. In any case, it leads to the creeping death of our green companions. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitEjnqMMdmDwOS4MExQyJhL_Yuw2bIoy2zBPpdvz2v_Bp6S8BqsPCxRApmJeTIE-zcD4tf4zpnzhJxlM0xMfpCt4HPuCBlxkPYmqpI2Qv6mc0L3NDFNtJhphi_RNXOvIRSKK4WtR90tq0BUBY86yJnKSOkOt4gvyK-7DXLukueAYiQHqrUkKDF/s4032/2016-04-01%2012.05.49%20(2).jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitEjnqMMdmDwOS4MExQyJhL_Yuw2bIoy2zBPpdvz2v_Bp6S8BqsPCxRApmJeTIE-zcD4tf4zpnzhJxlM0xMfpCt4HPuCBlxkPYmqpI2Qv6mc0L3NDFNtJhphi_RNXOvIRSKK4WtR90tq0BUBY86yJnKSOkOt4gvyK-7DXLukueAYiQHqrUkKDF/w640-h480/2016-04-01%2012.05.49%20(2).jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p>Figure 3: Suddenly it was gone, the tree. An angry citizen asked "Warum" (Why)?</p>
<h3 style="text-align: left;">Big trees for the bravehearted - small things amuse small minds<a href="#_edn3" name="_ednref3" title=""><b><span style="font-size: xx-small;">[iii]</span></b></a></h3>
<p>In general, the attitude towards trees is largely determined by the environment this particular group of people traditionally used to live in. In wooded Austria or Bavaria, for example, it was traditional to first cut a clearing in the forest before building a house. The buildable area had to be wrested hard from nature. In the middle of this area, "cleared" of all vegetation, a piece of civilisation was then placed, one's own house. No wonder, then, that the fighting morale of the seemingly eternal conflict of man against nature seems to be deeply ingrained in the genes of the indigenous population in these regions. Therefore, it is still unthinkable there to live in a house in the shade of tall trees.</p>
<p>In other places, in Lower Saxony for example the big old farms in were usually surrounded by massive, old oak trees. Beyond that inner barn area however not may trees had survived. </p>
<p>The original owners of the noble villas in Hamburg's Elbe suburbs were once bold sailors, daring merchants or fearless pioneers. The last thing that could have frightened them were the trees in their garden. Inspired by the art of English landscape gardens, they had already incorporated the character trees on the site into the overall composition when they built the main house. Later, they brought seeds or seedlings from distant parts of the world and tried to make them native to the banks of the Elbe. </p>
<p>Lamentably, neither their grandchildren nor the raw country people who have moved in have this stature. They are afraid of anything that towers slightly above them. They are constantly on the lookout for opportunities to eliminate this perceived threat.</p>
<p>I encountered a harrowing example in a completely different place. This gave me the nagging suspicion that I was dealing with a global phenomenon of human small-mindedness. A Dutchman in Praia da Luz, Portugal who had inherited a veritable "paradise" of fruit trees, palms and fountains near to the seaside from his aunt, found to my horror: A tree must not grow taller than a man - hostility to nature from the land of tulip monocultures. When I returned there a year later, I was deeply saddened to find that there were already gaping holes in what had once been such a dense and soothingly shady grove of trees. If, according to legend, Adam and Eve had to be forcibly expelled from their paradise, this brute of a colleague had taken up the axe himself.</p>
<p>One might get the audacious idea that we are better off in Germany, the land of forests? Yet there are hardly any forests left in Germany in their original sense. Trees worth mentioning are only found in wood plantations - monocultures - mostly conifers that are mostly even not well adapted to their location - often spruces, regionally often also called Prussian trees (e.g. in the region around Aachen).</p>
<p>Obviously, a lot of intensive awareness-raising is still needed to turn tree-phobic narrow minds into civilised, sovereign citizens.</p>
<h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: small;">Replanting requirements as a poor substitute</span></h3>
<p>In cases when trees cannot be preserved against the pressing lobby of interested parties, claiming a superior public need or other compelling forces, at times a replanting order is issued.</p>
<p>For several reasons however this is a poor substitute for old growth trees.</p>
<p>First of all, for decades a replanted tree unfolds only a fraction of the benefits of an old tree, let’s say, a 300-years old oak tree. After all, it’s just a sapling at best and not a tree yet.</p>
<p>Second, there is a generational mismatch to be taken into account. Before a tree has grown big enough to be called a tree, its environment has usually already been remodelled, reshaped and rebuilt three times – mostly through the use of chainsaws and bulldozers. Hardly any tree ever outgrows its juvenile stage in this man-made hustle and bustle.</p>
<p>Third, nursery-grown “large trees” can only be delivered after their branches and roots have been severely trimmed. Often, they are already cultivated in the nurseries to have a very compact root bale. Provided the appropriate big machinery is at hand, bale-sized holes are drilled into the compacted city ground, filled-up with the dugout and – that’s it. The old gardener's rule "dig a 5-dollar hole for a 1-dollar plant" is regularly disregarded in this process.</p>
<p>Fourth, the stoked root bales with their spherical or cylindrical shape, as a look for example at the pedunculate oak (Quercus Robur<a href="#_edn4" name="_ednref4" title="">[iv]</a>) in the root atlas confirms, do not do justice to the naturally developing root shape. Plus, often, plants develop their deep-rooted sinkers only in their early youth and not later on.</p>
<p>And fifth, it can be said with some confidence that even professional nurseries have so far paid little attention to the symbiosis between tree roots, soil and the fungal networks, the mycelium, that mediates between them, which is largely hidden deep underground.</p>
<p>This mutually beneficial relationship between trees and mycelium, which is made up of a thread-like structure of fungi, also known as mycorrhiza, occurs in two main forms, ectomycorrhizae and endomycorrhizae. It represents a fundamental ecological association that plays a crucial role in forest ecosystems, is however poorly understood and largely ignored by the caretakers of city green.</p>
<p>All five impeding factors may result in poor growth results. There is hence a multitude of reasons why replanted trees will in many cases never equal the old stand of trees that had to be removed for some purported compelling reason.</p>
<p>So, in reality the replanting obligation turns out to be a faint disguise of a creeping deforestation.</p>
<h3 style="text-align: left;">The value of trees</h3>
<p>Can’t the obvious benefits of trees outweigh the risks involved? While according to a study<a href="#_edn5" name="_ednref5" title=""><u>[v]</u></a>50-80% of the oxygen production on earth originated from the oceans, where in turn the majority is produced by oceanic plankton i.e. drifting plants, algae, and some bacteria that can photosynthesize, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that a tree absorbs from the atmosphere and sequesters should net be neglected. </p>
<p>According to the U.S. Forest Service, an average mature tree can absorb approximately around 22 kilograms (~48 pounds) of CO2 per year. Additionally, old trees often have rich ecosystems associated with them (moss, lichens, insects, birds, etc.) that contribute to carbon sequestration.</p>
<p>While this looks like quite a minor contribution to the haunting task of sequestering the about 36.4 billion metric tons total of CO2 emissions globally (as of 2021), large old trees can have a significant impact on temperatures in cities, especially during hot summer days. This phenomenon is known as the "urban heat effect", where cities tend to be warmer than surrounding rural areas, partly due to the amount of concrete and asphalt that absorbs and retains heat.</p>
<p>Trees and vegetation can mitigate this effect in two ways:</p>
<ol>
<li><b>Shade</b>: Large trees can cast shade, preventing direct sunlight from reaching buildings and other surfaces, thereby reducing surface temperatures and preventing the environment from heating up.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Evaporative cooling</b>: Trees release water into the atmosphere through transpiration. When the water evaporates, it removes heat from the environment, which cools the air.</li>
</ol>
<p>Tree stands in urban areas can reduce the temperature by several degrees Celsius, which can make a significant difference to the comfort and quality of life of residents. In addition, the presence of trees can also help to reduce energy consumption, as buildings require less cooling.</p>
<p>However, well-planned and maintained tree cover in cities can contribute significantly to reducing urban heat and improving the quality of life in cities. Reported effects include stress reduction, improved mood and reduced depression, increased concentration and cognitive function, feelings of connectedness and continuity, and even therapeutic effects - not all of which should be considered esoteric.</p>
<p>As Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, a renowned psychologist, aptly demonstrates in his book "Thinking, Fast and Slow", our "System No. 1" unconsciously steers us towards avoiding potential losses rather than betting on potential gains. Risks are rated higher than opportunities - that is our nature.</p>
<h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: small;">The essence</span></h3>
<p>Trees in urban areas complement the work of man. Whether in residential streets, on public squares or on private properties, or even above car parking spaces as a mercy for the notoriously wimpy shade parkers; it is their presence that makes the city emotionally complete.</p>
<p>And yet, unlike in forests, where damage caused by trees is considered an "force majeure" and thus a risk to be borne personally, in our cities we always need someone responsible to pay for any damage. </p>
<p>Unlike for suppose creator of all things, this is a burden for the individual citizen of the earth that can hardly be shouldered. Driven by pure panic, his thumb will usually point downwards when he is asked to give a risk assessment.</p>
<p>If I were to take the picture of Adalbertstraße in Hamburg shown at the beginning again today, it would no longer look like the interior of a green sparkling cathedral. Huge gaps open up a view of profane buildings and show where man's journey is to go. We can't seem to get rid of our mental heritage as children of the steppe.</p>
<p>Trees are not felled by the axe, but by fear, inertia and pusillanimity.</p>
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<div id="edn1"> <a href="#_ednref1" name="_edn1" title=""><sup>[i] </sup></a> https://www.signaturen-magazin.de/john-keats--ode-an-eine-nachtigall.html</div>
<div id="edn2"> <a href="#_ednref2" name="_edn2" title=""><sup>[ii] </sup></a> https://www.hamburg.de/contentblob/147876/9de60cadabcab6df9b8fa40525e7edf6/data/baumschutzverordnung-2023.pdf</div>
<div id="edn3"> <a href="#_ednref3" name="_edn3" title=""><sup>[iii]</sup></a> https://www.myzitate.de/doris-lessing/</div>
<div id="edn4"> <a href="#_ednref4" name="_edn4" title=""><sup>[iv] </sup></a> https://images.wur.nl/digital/collection/coll13/id/1352/rec/1</div>
<div id="edn5"> <a href="#_ednref5" name="_edn5" title=""><sup>[v] </sup></a> https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000124</div>Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-29303075926430545212023-06-18T19:34:00.018+02:002023-08-23T19:13:53.010+02:00"Liberalism and Its Discontents" by Francis Fukuyama<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1e1915; font-size: 16px;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk-529zGk8rcPwsJIotH5pufXvzVorgYBebnoZeAKvUDRSEfZdz4rvoo5P92_mF5f-2JKnlgEXn_07e3emxCTLXQ19k4PNy1j2fVwupM4a7HyPgx_i4YS744OzA_qkKnudAPN0O8mT0kBNAEKCC202M2bxIOwwoczoM8NsxL4ZhLWvhhVqwvUO/s400/Liberalism%20and%20Its%20Discontents.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="261" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk-529zGk8rcPwsJIotH5pufXvzVorgYBebnoZeAKvUDRSEfZdz4rvoo5P92_mF5f-2JKnlgEXn_07e3emxCTLXQ19k4PNy1j2fVwupM4a7HyPgx_i4YS744OzA_qkKnudAPN0O8mT0kBNAEKCC202M2bxIOwwoczoM8NsxL4ZhLWvhhVqwvUO/w261-h400/Liberalism%20and%20Its%20Discontents.jpg" width="261" /></a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: verdana;">
<br />
<p>Having recently immersed myself in the pages of Francis Fukuyama's "Liberalism and Its Discontents" (completed on June 18, 2023, if we must be precise), I'm led to endorse this work, albeit not without reservations.</p>
<p>Initially, skepticism gripped me. One cannot forget Fukuyama’s audacious, and I'd argue erroneous, claim in "The End of History and the Last Man" back in 1992. Therein, he argued for the zenith of human ideological evolution manifesting in the triumph of liberal democracy post the Soviet Union’s collapse. Such optimism, with the luxury of hindsight, appears rather misplaced.</p>
<p>The book's title resonated, drawing me in. Liberalism, despite its foundational role in shaping Western democracies, finds itself amidst turbulent waters, especially among the very beneficiaries of its ideals. Such a paradox, fraught with peril, intrigued me.</p>
<p>Fukuyama indeed provides a commendable exposition on liberalism's rich tapestry, delineating its foundational tenets and demarcating its boundaries. Notably, his critique of the tangents of neo-liberalism and identity politics, which in many ways have distorted the essence of liberalism, offers much-needed clarity.</p>
<p>But, one can't help but notice Fukuyama's predominantly American lens, punctuated with occasional European detours. This American-centric worldview occasionally conflates empirical realities with personal convictions.</p>
<p>His stance on nation-states stands out. The conundrum of identity within liberal theory, particularly when it grapples with the complexities of national boundaries in states that profess to be liberal, is intriguing. Given liberalism’s underlying premise of free choice and identity as a dynamic spectrum, the coherence of contemporary nation-states branding themselves as 'liberal democracies' becomes suspect. After all, isn’t it striking that borders, often soaked in bloodshed, demarcate these very entities? Reflect upon Catalonia’s secession attempt from Spain, or the fate of the Basque Country, and we witness the juxtaposition of nation states not as liberators but incarcerators.</p>
<p>In its essence, Fukuyama's work invites introspection. It challenges us to interrogate the foundations that have sculpted our political self-image. This book serves as an essential springboard for contemplation, especially since the discourse surrounding liberalism's merits and contributions remains, and should remain, an open-ended conversation.</p>
</span>Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-61316726231168331652023-04-24T22:25:00.001+02:002023-04-25T07:59:28.450+02:00 ChatGPT, Bard & Ernie are just the beginning<p>AI will change everything in the future</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcMntzidXly0VKg-wh-9j5QiJevToaSuozHSrDp_dP8-C9bOoy076pmtzPij464bNu-W--tLvJeMNKsR9Nogy9-713h_hQyG0hcF7oXfX2cepnYr5hKhdLP1B2Iund8t52eeb7Q-1yUWbk5pUN39WgewH8dEDoNhtzcyH4PPLtcK29Zz-1lQ/s1080/2023-04-04_Horst%20Walther%20DC%20event1680798628492.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1080" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcMntzidXly0VKg-wh-9j5QiJevToaSuozHSrDp_dP8-C9bOoy076pmtzPij464bNu-W--tLvJeMNKsR9Nogy9-713h_hQyG0hcF7oXfX2cepnYr5hKhdLP1B2Iund8t52eeb7Q-1yUWbk5pUN39WgewH8dEDoNhtzcyH4PPLtcK29Zz-1lQ/w640-h472/2023-04-04_Horst%20Walther%20DC%20event1680798628492.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>On April 2023-04-04, I had a talk about ...<li>What it's all about,</li><li>where we are today,</li><li>where it can lead us, and</li><li>what special task we want to solve with it.</li><p>So that I don't forget anything, I made some notes.</p><p>The first thought was, of course, "Why should I still do this myself? We have the AI after all."</p><p>So, I fed the announcement of this post into ChatGPT.</p><p>As additional requests I asked for civilised language, politically correct expression and a length of about 2500 words.</p><p>The result was - hmmm, standard stuff, not wrong, but regurgitated common knowledge - a yawn then.</p><h1 align="center" style="border: none; padding: 0cm; text-align: center;">Generative AI today</h1><p>Yet OpenAI's software has after all ...</p><p></p><ul><li><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/26/tech/chatgpt-passes-exams/index.html">passed</a> the law exams at the University of Minnesota and</li><li><a href="https://universitybusiness.com/chatgpt-passes-mba-exam-given-by-a-wharton-professor/">passed</a> business exams at the renowned Wharton School of Business.</li></ul><p></p><p>However, ChatGPT <a href="https://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/apps/chatgpt-scheitert-an-bayerischem-abitur-a-a28cdaa6-cdb9-49a1-9d38-b85e6c24773d">failed</a> the Bavarian Abitur in a test conducted by Bayerischer Rundfunk. This obviously requires more than just knowledge and intelligence, higher assistance perhaps.</p><p>The class of applications to which ChatGPT belongs is called generative AI. And in generating, AI is truly inventive. Occasionally it is also haunted by hallucinations.</p><p>For <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6c2de6dd-b679-4074-bffa-438d41430c31">example</a>, David Smerdon, an economist at the University of Queensland, had ChatGPT chatbot: "<i>What is the most cited economic paper of all time?" ("What is the most cited economics paper of all time?</i>").</p><p>The answer came promptly and sounded plausible: "<i>A Theory of Economic History" by Douglass North and Robert Thomas, published in the Journal of Economic History in 1969 and cited more than 30,000 times since then.</i>”</p><p>The bot added that the article "<i>is considered a classic in the field of economic history</i>". A good answer, precise, short and crisp - only unfortunately wrong. Because this article never existed.</p><p>I can explain everything is usually the knee-jerk reaction when one has been caught in flagrante delicto, that famous Italian seaside resort. The result can be explained: the ChatBot gave the statistically most probable answer. That's why it sounded so convincing at first. <a href="https://www.amazon.de/Bullshit-Harry-G-Frankfurt/dp/0691122946">Bullshit</a> at its best - just like Harry G. Frankfurt.</p><p>Chatbots in their current version, such as Bard or ChatGPT, are therefore unsuitable for searches á la Google or Bing. Google, Microsoft and now Baidu have also had to learn this painfully. - Yet research in particular would be a wonderful application.</p><p>But we can deal with the fallibility of the actors around us - even if not always successfully. It doesn't matter whether they are people or machines. We are used to that. It's in our genes. Fake news is as old as the world.</p><p>And so, despite some spectacular failures, this powerful technique is already widely used - examples:</p><p>Argonne National Laboratory <a href="https://www.anl.gov/article/machine-learning-model-speeds-up-assessing-catalysts-for-decarbonization-technology-from-months-to">reported</a> (02/03/2023): "<i>Machine learning speeds catalyst evaluation from months to milliseconds using a model to identify low-cost catalysts that convert biomass into fuels and useful chemicals</i>."</p><p>The South China Post <a href="https://wonderfulengineering.com/this-ai-pilot-just-beat-a-human-in-a-landmark-real-life-dogfight-just-90-seconds/">reported</a> on an aerial battle between two unmanned combat aircraft - one remotely controlled by an experienced pilot, the other AI-controlled. The AI had won the fight after 90 seconds.</p><p>In chemistry, the ability to incorporate very large amounts of data into decisions is already proving particularly valuable.</p><p>AI is the new laboratory assistant for ...</p><ul><li>Optimisation of chemical reactions</li><li>Prediction of reaction conditions</li><li>Prediction of reaction results</li><li>retrosynthesis</li><li>Design of molecules</li><li>Prediction of molecular properties</li><li>Drug discovery</li><li>Protein folding</li></ul><p>Medicine has similar requirements for handling large amounts of information. Areas that benefit here are ...</p><ul><li>Developing diagnoses</li><li>Making diagnoses</li><li>Testing hypotheses</li><li>Improving prognostics</li><li>Patient monitoring</li><li>... and much more</li></ul><p>Our dysfunctional German school system could also be improved with this - otherwise it will be massively turned around against its will.</p><p>Bill Gates (2023-03-21), however, already <a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/The-Age-of-AI-Has-Begun">sees</a> paradisiacal conditions coming:</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p style="text-align: left;">"<i>AI will help people in incredible ways.</i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i>But I'm particularly excited about its potential to make the world a fairer place.</i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i>AI can help improve access to healthcare in underserved communities, boost education in the United States and around the world, and even prevent climate catastrophe.</i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><i>The priority of my work in artificial intelligence is to make sure it benefits everyone - not just the wealthy</i>."</p></blockquote><p>Bankers don't want to be left behind: Jamie Dimon, ex CEO of J.P Morgan Chase Manhattan recently <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/03/06/jamie-dimon-ukraine-war-china-relations-soft-landing-ai-artificial-intelligence-extraordinary/">opined</a> excitedly:</p><p>"<i>AI is a stunning technology. We are already using it in risk management, fraud detection, marketing and customer acquisition. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. To me, it's extraordinary</i>."</p><p>"<i><span>Excitement is warranted, but caution is advised</span>" </i>McKinsey then coolly comments on the ChatGPT hype.</p><h1 align="center" style="border: none; padding: 0cm; text-align: center;">Please remain sober ...</h1><p>When we think of intelligence as the ability to solve problems, to learn, to understand, to plan, to think logically, to reason abstractly and to adapt, we are still inclined to deny Deep Learning systems intelligence.</p><p>Let's take them for what they are - highly sophisticated statistical methods.</p><p>Stuart Russell, Professor of Computer Science at the University of California at Berkeley, rather calls today's AI "<i>mimicry</i>".</p><p>ChatGPT itself says solomonic: "<i>The question of whether ChatGPT is intelligent or not should therefore be answered, in the context of its functions and capabilities</i>."</p><p>The state of knowledge became clear in a <a href="https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/making-sense-episodes/312-the-trouble-with-ai">discussion</a> moderated by Samuel Benjamin "Sam" Harris (US philosopher, neuroscientist, writer and debater) between Stuart Russel and Gary Marcus, scientist, best-selling author and entrepreneur.</p><p>"<i>We don't know today how chatbots get their results</i>."</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p>"<i>Deep Learning systems see the world like someone looking at a Pointillism painting (a style of Post-Impressionism, 1889 and 1910) and seeing all the dots - but not the painting</i>."</p><p>"<i>As if someone has absorbed all the knowledge of the world, can reproduce it and yet has understood nothing. - Knows everything, understands nothing</i>."</p></blockquote><p>But also ...</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;">"<i>We can't even say yet whether, through simple further development, today's Narrow Intelligence may not eventually grow into a real Superintelligence</i>."</p></blockquote><h1 align="center" style="border: none; padding: 0cm; text-align: center;">The singularity</h1><p>But we are still a long way from that. For we must not forget that the difference in complexity between the human brain and current AI systems amounts to about 3 orders of magnitude. The brain has ~ 86 billion neurons connected by trillions of synapses. GPT-3 (2021) by OpenAI comes to 175 billion parameters.</p><p>However, the human brain and AI systems function in very different ways and have different strengths and weaknesses.</p><p>Nor can we yet claim to have understood how the human brain works.</p><p>Noam Chomsky <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/opinion/noam-chomsky-chatgpt-ai.html">sees</a> in the current spate of AI chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Microsoft's Bing AI: "<i>the first glimmers on the horizon of general artificial intelligence" - the point, that is, at which AI will be superior to humans in thought and action - but thinks we are absolutely nowhere near that stage yet</i>.”</p><p>"<i>That day may be coming, but its dawn has not yet broken, contrary to what you can read in exaggerated headlines and what can be expected from imprudent investments</i>," opined the Massachusetts Institute of Technology cognitive scientist.</p><h1 align="center" style="border: none; padding: 0cm; text-align: center;">Man as creator</h1><p>According to biblical tradition, the Creator made man in His image.</p><p>Since, according to this very tradition, in the style of the classical establishment, we are dealing with a white, old man, it worked sufficiently well in the creation of Adam.</p><p>With the creation of Eve, a workaround was already necessary.</p><p>The first bio-hack.</p><p>But if we consider our very obvious imperfection, which manifests itself almost daily, this again does not cast such a good light on our very Master Template.</p><p>If that has already gone wrong, how would it look if we earthlings were to create a creature in our own image?</p><p>Can that work at all?</p><p>Then perhaps it would be better not to make one in our image.</p><p>But what values should this AI, this strong AI, then alternatively hold sacred?</p><p>We remember that a strong AI should be at least equal to humans in its cognitive abilities.</p><p>That follows from the definition.</p><p>But if it is, it will probably be faster. We also assume that it does not tire, does not need sleep.</p><p>(Whether these assumptions are admissible is highly uncertain. If there is still time, I would like to argue about it (with myself)).</p><p>Assuming the admissibility of this assumption, no one would be better suited to develop the AI further than the AI itself.</p><p>Would that be a wise decision?</p><p>We must be aware that in this model we would be giving control out of our hands.</p><p>A new strand of evolution would be opened, the outcome by definition uncertain.</p><p>Humans would then be out of the loop - stopped cold.</p><h1 align="center" style="border: none; padding: 0cm; text-align: center;">AI and society</h1><p>All true, but still: AI is something like electricity, a basic technology, not an application. But the applications that can already be expected at this - today's - level could free us humans from menial tasks and usher in a new era of creativity. A new <a href="https://www.kondratieff.net/kondratieffcycles">Kondratjev cycle</a> would be triggered. (We are currently in the 5<sup>th</sup>cycle).</p><p>This would enable us to meet the <a href="https://www.amazon.de/Future-Management-Gary-Hamel/dp/1422102505">claim</a> of <a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Hamel">Gary Hamel</a>, a thought leader and expert on management.</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p>"<i>We have tried in the past to turn people into machine-like beings.</i></p><p><i>They should adapt to industrialisation and automated, monotonous processes.</i></p><p><i>This approach is counterproductive and limits human creativity, innovation and resilience</i>."</p></blockquote><p>Instead of forcing people into mechanistic roles á la "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolis_(1927_film)"> <i>Metropolis</i></a>" (Fritz Lang's monumental 1927 silent expressionist film), Hamel advocates a more human-centred approach to work and organisations - and has been doing so since the 1990s</p><p>But such a historical paradigm shift could also eliminate jobs altogether and raise huge social problems, experts warn.</p><p>They don't have to be insurmountable, because earlier technological advances - from electricity to the internet - have also triggered major social change, <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1051630-ai-to-bring-change-never-seen-in-human-history-observers">says</a> Siqi Chen, CEO of the San Francisco-based start-up Runway.</p><p>The change that will result will be "<i>orders of magnitude greater than any other technological change we've ever seen in history</i>".</p><p>If we think for a moment about the upheavals of industrialisation, such as the long-lasting schism between capitalism and communism, we may be in for something we are in no way prepared for.</p><h1 align="center" style="border: none; padding: 0cm; text-align: center;">Regulation</h1><p>To err is human after all - well, actually.</p><p>Its fallibility gives the bot, which after all had to undergo a long and strenuous deep learning training and still errs, already sympathetic, human traits.</p><p>He is somehow one of us.</p><p>That's apparently what now-suspended Google engineer Blake Lemoine thought when he <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgCUn4fQTsc">claimed</a> earlier this month that one of the company's experimental AIs called LaMDA had now developed feelings - prompting the software giant to put him on leave.</p><p>Lemoine is not alone. Ilya Sutskever, lead scientist of the OpenAI research group, also recently <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/openais-chief-scientist-claimed-ai-may-be-conscious-and-kicked-off-a-furious-debate-7338b95194e">tweeted</a> that "<i>it may be that today's large neural networks have evolved some consciousness</i>."</p><p>So that would be a being with the general intelligence of a grasshopper, albeit one that has acquired the knowledge of entire libraries.</p><p>General intelligence? No, we are still a long way from that. It is not even clear whether we will ever reach the level of AGI (artificial general intelligence). Then the "machine would be more intelligent than man", would take its own further development into its own hands and send us to the beer garden. The singularity would be there.</p><p>Even if it is still a long and possibly winding road, the fear of this loss of control, however it may turn out, has already arrived in the here and now. It already lives among us.</p><p>In the AI scene, the approach of goal-setting or value engineering is therefore being discussed.</p><p>Here, the system is given an unchangeable set of values and rules at birth, against which every action of the AI is tested.</p><p>The three, and in the expanded version four, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Laws_of_Robotics">robot laws</a> of Isaac Asimov (1942) are certainly among them.</p><p></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;">0. a robot must not harm humanity or, through passivity, allow humanity to come to harm. 1. a robot must not harm any (individual) human.<br />1. a robot must not injure a (single) human being or allow humanity to come to harm through inaction, unless it would thereby violate the zeroth law.<br />2. a robot must obey the orders of humans - unless such orders are in conflict with the zeroth or first law.<br />3. a robot must protect its own existence as long as its actions do not contradict the zeroth, first or second law.</blockquote><p></p><p>Ok, that sounds good.</p><p>We could do it that way - if we knew how to do it practically.</p><p>Also, all the developers of the AI would really have to adhere to it.</p><p>But this developer would be the AI itself, a specialised one perhaps.</p><p>Would it really follow the given rules permanently?</p><h1 align="center" style="border: none; padding: 0cm; text-align: center;">Power competition is the driver</h1><p>War is known to be the "father of all things".</p><p>It has shaped us, made us what we are.</p><p>It was the constant struggle for survival as an individual and as a community, against all other players in our natural environment, the environment itself and against our own species. It has become deeply embedded in our instincts and mostly only half-conscious values.</p><p>Regrettably, this war is by no means over.</p><p>On the contrary, at a time when things are getting tight for us on our planet, when we should actually be acting more as a community, as a global community mind you, our inherent instincts seem to be pointing us in a different, familiar direction: The struggle for dwindling resources, for living space, for places to survive in an increasingly devastated world.</p><p>All signs point to a storm, indicate that the conflicts are intensifying - and will, must be fought out to the very last consequence.</p><p>There is no need to explain further that the most effective weapon, namely AI, will be used for this purpose.</p><p>And the party that can use the most effective AI will probably come out on top, will be able to defeat the opponent.</p><p>When it comes to victory or defeat, of course all means are justified, let me emphasise "all".</p><p>Does anyone seriously believe that even one of the opponents is then still "sacred" to built-in ethical rules?</p><p>I think we can safely bury this illusion.</p><p>But what will we be faced with then? How will AI behave and develop?</p><p>What relationship will it have with humanity?</p><p>Will it be similar to us, only much stronger - our downfall would be sealed.</p><p>But if it surpasses us in intelligence, perhaps it will develop something like insight or even wisdom and protect us from ourselves.</p><p>Finally, here is the opinion of the (controversial) <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Harris">Sam Harris</a>:</p><p>"<i>A superintelligence vastly superior to the human one is inevitable.</i></p><p><i>For if intelligence is only a matter of information processing, and we continue to improve our machines, we will produce a form of superintelligence.</i></p><p><i>Then we will have to admit that we are in the process of creating a kind of God.</i></p><p><i>Now would be a good time to make sure it's a god we can live with</i>."</p><h1 align="center" style="border: none; padding: 0cm; text-align: center;">AI for better politics</h1><p>It doesn't have to be God. We should remain humble. But how about supporting the business of government, from the local authority to the supranational organisation, with a system that is committed exclusively to rational decisions?</p><p>There are plenty of reasons not to be satisfied with current politics. The weakest link in the chain is the human being himself.</p><ul><li>Politicians are "heroes of the moment" (<a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabor_Steingart">Gabor Steingart</a>).</li><li>They do not plan for the long term.</li><li>Their job is far too uncertain for that.</li><li>The professional politician has politics as his profession - that is his whole concern.</li><li>The politics he stands for are not unimportant, but secondary, occasionally interchangeable.</li><li>Party programmes are therefore often woolly collections of popular but incoherent statements.</li><li>No programmer would call them a "programme".</li></ul><p>They do not address the real challenges, or address them half-heartedly:</p><ul><li>Climate change,</li><li>resource depletion,</li><li>overpopulation,</li><li>species extinction,</li><li>inequality,</li><li>wars and finally the</li><li>limits to growth.</li></ul><p>The arduous and gruelling task of a politician's career tends to promote a negative selection of character.</p><p>On election day, we cast our vote - and away it goes.</p><p>The feeling of a bad buy quickly sets in.</p><p>Or in the words of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannah_Arendt">Hannah Arendt</a>:</p><p>"<i>No one has ever counted truthfulness among the political virtues.</i></p><p><i>Lying seems to be part of the craft not only of the demagogue but also of the politician and even the statesman.</i></p><p><i>A remarkable and disturbing fact</i>."</p><p>The permanent survival of humanity in an intact environment, is thus no longer achievable.</p><p>Yet, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/noam-chomsky-93-issues-warning-204950540.html">according</a> to Noam Chomsky, "<i>the challenge before us exceeds anything humanity has ever experienced. The fate of life on our planet is now at stake</i>".</p><p>How can we change this? <span style="font-family: Wingdings;">à</span> Less human - more programme</p><p>As a central element, we want to create a political oracle to which we will give the rules by which the political entity, a state for example, should be governed. We will then be able to ask this oracle our questions about current political events.</p><p>A <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythia">Pythia</a>, albeit an unambiguous one, which will provide the citizen with soberly logical information, evaluate political decisions, comment on political events with incorruptible acuity.</p><p>For, as <a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Kirchhof">Paul Kirchhof</a> says: "<i>There are hardly any tangible political principles of reliability left by which the powerful in this state act</i>."</p><p>So, with everything at stake, we should act strictly according to principles.</p><p>So, why not, a small group of intrepid people, including myself, have thought.</p><p>The vehicle will be a synthetic party.</p><p>It deliberately refrains from orienting itself on existing models and wants to break new ground.</p><p>She has given herself 3 assignments ...</p><ol><li>A permanent task,</li><li>A secondary condition and</li><li>A short-term goal</li></ol><p>The permanent task to which we have committed ourselves is to enable humanity to survive in an intact environment in the long term.</p><p>The secondary condition is to preserve our typical European liberal civil liberties, which, according to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Stuart_Mill">John Stuart Mill</a>, are particularly threatened in critical times.</p><p>Our short-term goal is to create a multinational state "Europe" with sufficient weight to be able to fulfil our permanent task with its secondary condition.</p><h1 align="center" style="border: none; padding: 0cm; text-align: center;">AI in politics so far</h1><p>There have already been a few attempts to use artificial intelligence in politics - mostly, however, for subordinate tasks ...</p><ul><li>Campaign planning and management,</li><li>Trend and pattern recognition</li><li>Manipulative voter influence</li><li>Traffic optimisation,</li><li>olitical analysis</li><li>Crime prediction</li><li>Resource optimisation</li><li>...</li></ul><p>In 2018, however, an AI-controlled robot named <a href="https://leadership4ir.com/2018/04/19/ai-candidate-runs-for-mayor-in-japan/">Michihito Matsuda</a> ran for mayor of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tama,_Tokyo">Tama City</a>, a suburb of Tokyo. The AI-controlled candidate should be able to make more rational, data-driven decisions without being influenced by emotions or personal prejudices:</p><p>Efficient management of city resources: the AI candidate promised to analyse and use city data to optimise resource allocation and improve public services.</p><p>Fairness and transparency: Since AI has no personal interests or biases, the campaign said, AI could make more objective and fair decisions, reducing possible corruption or nepotism in politics.</p><p>Responding quickly to citizens' needs: the AI candidate wanted to use data analytics to identify and meet the needs of the local community quickly and effectively.</p><p>The AI candidate came third out of three candidates with ~4 000 votes. After all, a start had been made. A journey had begun.</p><p>The somewhat lengthy introduction to the topic, with its emphasis on the opportunities and limitations, was probably able to make it clear that the technology for a political oracle is by no means as cheap and ubiquitously available as chatGPT.</p><p>Oh yes, what does our generative AI have to say about our project? Here's the answer:</p><p>"...<i>One of the biggest challenges in developing an "AI oracle" for policy-making is to ensure that the system is transparent, accountable and able to make informed and reliable recommendations.</i></p><p><i>This is likely to require significant advances in the explainability and interpretability of AI, as well as the development of new standards and regulations for the use of AI in policymaking. </i>...".</p><p>By extension, ChatGPT 3.5 concludes that it is likely to take some time and significant progress in this discipline will be required before the oracle makes our jobs easier, provides predictability and clarity.</p><p>Not easy, then.</p><p>But if we don't even try, we have already lost.</p><p>Or with <a name="_Hlk133214282"></a><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Schiller">Friedrich Schiller</a>: "<i>He who thinks too much will achieve little</i>".</p><p>Art is sometimes ahead of reality: to conclude, a still somewhat awkward vision: "<a href="https://www.tomokihara.com/en/ai-mayor.html">Meet the AI Mayor</a>- Interactive theatre to experience autonomous decision making." </p><div><br /></div>Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-11405712567542037962023-04-24T22:17:00.000+02:002023-04-24T22:17:41.078+02:00ChatGPT, Bard & Ernie sind nur der Anfang<div>
<p><strong><span face=",sans-serif" style="color: black; line-height: 107%;">KI wird künftig alles verändern</span></strong></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAJihNmCLklOZy8n8f6XgPff1KJB2s2Ju3BV5L--wO6riWjTc8t0BiUOYr_hW53CMnmEKPrnO9QrV7vgotB6lYflH9rVOqFmGyik_LdYQEgs395x6b0EF1TeL9CWjl92LLP7hhPDbKxEZDskAAqgNuMwB5stwprceweMaHP7qTUpiWc2__ZQ/s1080/2023-04-04_Horst%20Walther%20DC%20event1680798628492.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1080" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAJihNmCLklOZy8n8f6XgPff1KJB2s2Ju3BV5L--wO6riWjTc8t0BiUOYr_hW53CMnmEKPrnO9QrV7vgotB6lYflH9rVOqFmGyik_LdYQEgs395x6b0EF1TeL9CWjl92LLP7hhPDbKxEZDskAAqgNuMwB5stwprceweMaHP7qTUpiWc2__ZQ/w640-h472/2023-04-04_Horst%20Walther%20DC%20event1680798628492.jpg" width="640" /></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>Am 4. April 2023 habe ich vor dem Diplomatic Council darüber gesprochen …<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span>Was es damit auf sich hat,</span></li><li><span>wo wir heute stehen,</span></li><li><span>wohin das alles noch führen kann und</span></li><li><span>welche besondere Aufgabe wir damit lösen wollen.</span></li></ul><p></p>
<p><span>Um nichts zu vergessen, hatte ich mir einige Notizen gemacht.</span></p>
<p>Der 1. Gedanke dabei war natürlich „<i>Warum soll ich das eigentlich noch selber machen? Wir haben doch die KI</i>.“</p>
<p><span>So habe ich die Ankündigung dieses Beitrags in ChatGPT eingefüttert.</span></p>
<p><span>Als Zusatzwünsche habe ich um eine zivilisierte Sprache, eine politisch korrekte Ausdrucksweise und eine Länge von etwa 2500 Wörtern gebeten.</span></p>
<p><span>Das Ergebnis war - hmmm, Standardware, nicht falsch, aber allgemein Bekanntes wiedergekäut – zum Gähnen also.</span></p>
<h1 align="center" style="border-bottom: 1px sold navy;">Generative AI heute</h1>
<p>Dabei hat die Software von OpenAI immerhin …</p>
<ul>
<li>die <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/26/tech/chatgpt-passes-exams/index.html">Prüfungen</a> in <b>Jura </b>an der <b>University of Minnesota </b>und </li>
<li><b>Wirtschaftsprüfungen </b><span>an der renommierten <b>Wharton School of Business </b><a href="https://universitybusiness.com/chatgpt-passes-mba-exam-given-by-a-wharton-professor/">bestanden</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
<p><span>Am <b>bayerischen Abitur </b>allerdings <a href="https://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/apps/chatgpt-scheitert-an-bayerischem-abitur-a-a28cdaa6-cdb9-49a1-9d38-b85e6c24773d">scheiterte</a> ChatGPT in einem Test des Bayerischen Rundfunks. Dafür ist offenbar noch mehr erforderlich als nur Wissen und Intelligenz, höherer Beistand möglicherweise.</span></p>
<p><span>Die Klasse der Anwendungen zu der ChatGPT gehört, wird <b>generative AI </b>genannt. Und beim <b>Generieren </b>ist die KI wahrhaft erfinderisch. Gelegentlich wird sie auch von Halluzinationen heimgesucht. </span></p>
<p>So hatte David Smerdon, ein Wirtschaftswissenschaftler an der University of Queensland, den Chatbot ChatGPT <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6c2de6dd-b679-4074-bffa-438d41430c31">gefragt</a>: "<b><i>Was ist die meistzitierte ökonomische Arbeit aller Zeiten</i></b>?" <span>(“<i>What is the most cited economics paper of all time</i>?”)</span></p>
<p><span>Die Antwort kam prompt und klang plausibel: "<b><i>A Theory of Economic History</i></b>" von <b>Douglass North </b>und <b>Robert Thomas</b>, veröffentlicht im „<i>Journal of Economic History</i>“ im Jahr 1969 und seitdem mehr als 30.000-mal zitiert. </span></p>
<p><span>Der Bot fügte noch hinzu, dass der Artikel "<i>als ein Klassiker im Bereich der Wirtschaftsgeschichte gilt</i>". Eine gute Antwort, präzise, kurz und knackig - nur leider falsch. Denn diesen Artikel hat es nie gegeben.</span></p>
<p><i>"Ich kann alles erklären" </i><span>ist üblicherweise die reflexhafte Reaktion, wenn man in flagranti, jenem berühmten italienischen Badeort, ertappt wurde. Erklären lässt sich das Ergebnis schon: Der ChatBot hat die <b>statistisch wahrscheinlichste </b>Antwort gegeben. Daher klang sie zunächst auch so überzeugend. <a href="https://www.amazon.de/Bullshit-Harry-G-Frankfurt/dp/0691122946">Bullshit</a> vom Feinsten also – ganz im Sinne von Harry G. Frankfurt.</span></p>
<p><span>Für die <b>Suche </b>á la Google oder Bing sind ChatBots in der heutigen Version, wie Bard oder ChatGPT also ungeeignet. Das mussten sowohl Google wie auch Microsoft und inzwischen Baidu ebenfalls schmerzhaft erfahren. – Dabei wäre gerade die <b>Recherche </b>eine wunderbare Anwendung.</span></p>
<p><span>Mit der <b>Fehlbarkeit </b>der Akteure um uns herum aber können wir umgehen - wenn auch nicht immer erfolgreich. Dabei ist es egal ob es sich nun um <b>Menschen </b>oder <b>Maschinen </b>handelt. Das sind wir gewöhnt. Das steckt in unseren Genen. Fake News sind so alt wie die Welt.</span></p>
<p><span>Und so wird diese mächtige Technik denn auch bereits <b>breit eingesetzt </b>-<b></b>Beispiele:</span></p>
<p>Das Argonne National Laboratory <a href="https://www.anl.gov/article/machine-learning-model-speeds-up-assessing-catalysts-for-decarbonization-technology-from-months-to">meldete</a> <span>(02.03.2023): „</span><i><span>Maschinelles Lernen beschleunigt die Bewertung von <b>Katalysatoren </b>von Monaten auf Millisekunden durch ein Modell zur Identifizierung kostengünstiger Katalysatoren, die Biomasse in Kraftstoffe und nützliche Chemikalien umwandeln</span><span>.</span></i><span>“</span></p>
<p>Die South China Post <a href="https://wonderfulengineering.com/this-ai-pilot-just-beat-a-human-in-a-landmark-real-life-dogfight-just-90-seconds/">berichtete</a> von einem <b>Luftkampf </b>zweier unbemannter Kampfflugzeuge – das eine von einem erfahrenen Piloten ferngesteuert, das andere KI-gesteuert. Die KI hatte den Kampf nach 90 Sekunden für sich entschieden.</p>
<p><span>In der <b>Chemie </b>erweist sich die Fähigkeit, sehr große Datenmengen in Entscheidungen einzubeziehen bereits heute als besonders wertvoll. </span></p>
<p><span>KI ist der neue Laborassistent für die …</span></p>
<p></p>
<ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span>Optimierung chemischer Reaktionen</span></li><li><span>Vorhersage von Reaktionsbedingungen</span></li><li><span>Vorhersage von Reaktionsergebnissen</span></li><li><span>Retrosynthese</span></li><li><span>Entwurf von Molekülen</span></li><li><span>Vorhersage von Moleküleigenschaften</span></li><li><span>Entdeckung von Arzneimitteln</span></li><li><span>Proteinfaltung</span></li></ul><p></p>
<p>Die <b>Medizin </b>stellt ähnliche Anforderungen an die Bewältigung großer Informationsmengen. Gebiete die hier profitieren sind …</p>
<p></p>
<ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span>Entwickeln von Diagnosen</span></li><li><span>Stellen von Diagnosen</span></li><li><span>Testen von Hypothesen</span></li><li><span>Verbesserung der Prognostik</span></li><li><span>Patientenüberwachung </span></li><li><span>… und vieles mehr</span></li></ul><p></p>
<p>Unser dysfunktionales Deutsches <b>Schulsystem </b>könnte sich damit ebenfalls verbessern lassen – massiv umgekrempelt wird es sonst wider Willen.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Bill Gates (2023-03-21) <a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/The-Age-of-AI-Has-Begun">sieht</a> aber schon jetzt paradiesische Zustände heraufziehen: <br /></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p style="text-align: left;">“<i>Die KI wird den Menschen auf unglaubliche Weise helfen.</i></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span><i><span>Aber ich bin besonders begeistert von ihrem Potenzial, die Welt gerechter zu machen. </span></i></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span><i><span>KI kann dazu beitragen, den Zugang zu medizinischer Versorgung in unterversorgten Gemeinden zu verbessern, die Bildung in den Vereinigten Staaten und auf der ganzen Welt zu fördern und sogar eine Klimakatastrophe zu verhindern. </span></i></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span><span><i><span> Die Priorität meiner Arbeit im Bereich der künstlichen Intelligenz liegt darin, dafür zu sorgen, dass sie allen zugute kommt - und nicht nur den Wohlhabenden</span></i></span></span><span>.“</span></p></blockquote>
<p>Da wollen die Banker nicht zurückstehen: <b>Jamie Dimon</b>, Ex CEO von J.P Morgan Chase Manhattan <a href="https://fortune.com/2023/03/06/jamie-dimon-ukraine-war-china-relations-soft-landing-ai-artificial-intelligence-extraordinary/"> meinte</a> unlängst aufgeregt: </p>
<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span><span>"</span><span><i>KI ist eine atemberaubende Technologie. Wir nutzen sie bereits im Risiko-Management, der Betrugserkennung, im Marketing und zur Kundengewinnung. Und das ist nur die Spitze des Eisbergs. Für mich ist das außergewöhnlich</i>.</span></span><span>"</span></p></blockquote>
<p><span>„</span><i><span>Aufregung ist gerechtfertigt, aber Vorsicht ist geboten</span></i><i><span>“ </span></i><span>kommentiert McKinsey denn auch kühl den ChatGPT-Hype.</span></p>
<h1 align="center" style="border-bottom: 1px sold navy;">Bitte nüchtern bleiben …</h1>
<p>Wenn wir bei dem Begriff <b>Intelligenz </b>mit der Fähigkeit, Probleme zu lösen, zu lernen, zu verstehen, zu planen, logisch zu denken, abstrakt zu argumentieren und sich anzupassen, sind wir geneigt, den Deep Learning Systemen die <b>Intelligenz </b>noch abzusprechen. </p>
<p><span>Nehmen wir sie als das, was sie sind – hochgezüchtete <b>statistische </b>Methoden.</span></p>
<p><b><span>Stuart Russell</span></b><span>, Professor of Computer Science an der University of California at Berkeley, nennt die heutige KI eher “</span><i><span>Mimikri“</span></i><span>.</span></p>
<p><span>ChatGPT meint selber salomonisch: „<i>Die Frage, ob ChatGPT intelligent ist oder nicht, sollte daher, im <b>Kontext </b>seiner <b>Funktionen </b>und <b>Fähigkeiten </b>beantwortet werden</i>.“</span></p>
<p>Der Stand der Erkenntnis wurde in einer von Samuel Benjamin <b>„Sam“ Harris</b>(US-amerikanischer Philosoph, Neurowissenschaftler, Schriftsteller und Debattenredner)<b></b>moderierten <a href="https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/making-sense-episodes/312-the-trouble-with-ai">Diskussion</a> zwischen <b>Stuart Russel </b>und <b>Gary Marcus</b>, Wissenschaftler, Bestsellerautor und Unternehmer, deutlich.</p>
<p><span>„</span><i><span>Wir wissen heute nicht, wie ChatBots zu ihren Ergebnissen kommen</span></i><span>.“ </span></p>
<p><span>„</span><i><span>Die Deep Learning Systeme sehen die Welt, wie jemand der ein Bild des Pointillismus </span></i><span> (eine Stilrichtung des Post-Impressionismus, 1889 und 1910) </span><i><span>betrachtet und alle Punkte sieht – aber nicht das Bild</span></i><span>.“</span></p>
<p><span>„</span><i><span>Als wenn jemand das gesamte Wissen der Welt aufgenommen hat, wieder geben kann und doch nichts verstanden hat. – Weiß alles, versteht nichts</span></i><span>.“</span></p>
<palign center="" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 6.0pt; margin: 6pt 0cm; text-align: center;"><span>Aber auch …</span></palign>
<p><span>„</span><i><span>Wir können noch nicht einmal sagen, ob nicht durch schlichte Weiterentwicklung aus der heutigen Narrow Intelligence irgendwann eine wirkliche Superintelligenz erwachsen kann</span></i><span>.“</span></p>
<h1 align="center" style="border-bottom: 1px sold navy;">Die Singularität</h1>
<p><span>Aber so weit sind wir noch lange nicht. Denn wir dürfen nicht vergessen, dass sich der </span><span style="color: navy;">Komplexitätsunterschied zwischen dem menschlichen Gehirn und aktuellen KI-Systemen auf etwa 3 Zehnerpotenzen beläuft. Das Gehirn hat ~ 86 Milliarden Neuronen, die durch Billionen von Synapsen miteinander verbunden sind. GPT-3 (2021) von OpenAI kommt auf 175 Milliarden Parameter.</span></p>
<p><span>Das menschliche Gehirn und KI-Systeme auf funktionieren allerdings auf sehr unterschiedliche Weise und haben unterschiedliche Stärken und Schwächen.</span></p>
<p><span>Auch können wir noch nicht behaupten, die <b>Funktionsweise</b>des menschlichen Gehirns verstanden zu haben.</span></p>
<p><b>Noam Chomsky </b><span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/opinion/noam-chomsky-chatgpt-ai.html">sieht</a> in der aktuellen Flut von KI-Chatbots wie ChatGPT von OpenAI und Bing AI von Microsoft: "</span><span><span><i>die ersten Schimmer am Horizont der allgemeinen künstlichen Intelligenz</i></span>" - der Punkt also, an dem die KI dem Menschen im Denken und Handeln überlegen sein wird – meint aber, dass wir absolut noch nicht in der Nähe dieser Stufe sind.</span></p><p><span>"</span><span><span><i>Dieser Tag mag kommen, aber dessen Morgendämmerung ist noch nicht angebrochen, im Gegensatz zu dem, was man in übertriebenen Schlagzeilen lesen kann und was von unüberlegten Investitionen zu erwarten ist</i></span></span><i><span>", </span></i><span>meinte der Kognitionswissenschaftler vom Massachusetts Institute of Technology.</span></p>
<h1 align="center" style="border-bottom: 1px sold navy;">Der Mensch als Schöpfer</h1>
<p>Der biblischen Überlieferung nach hat der Schöpfer den Menschen <b>nach seinem Ebenbild</b>geschaffen.</p>
<p><span>Da es sich hier ebendieser Überlieferung nach, ganz im Stile des klassischen Establishments, um einen <b>weißen, alten Mann </b>handelt, hat es bei der Erschaffung von <b>Adam </b>hinreichend funktioniert.</span></p>
<p><span>Bei der Kreation von <b>Eva </b>war bereits ein Workaround erforderlich.</span></p>
<p><span>Der erste Bio-Hack.</span></p>
<p><span>Wenn wir aber unsere ganz offensichtliche <b>Unvollkommenheit </b>in Betracht ziehen, die sich fast täglich manifestiert, wirft das wiederum kein so gutes Licht auf eben <b>unser Master Template</b>.</span></p>
<p>Wenn das schon schief gegangen ist, wie würde es dann aussehen, wenn wir Erdenbürger eine Kreatur nach <b>unserem Ebenbild </b>schaffen würden?</p>
<p><span>Kann das überhaupt gut gehen?</span></p>
<p><span>Dann vielleicht besser doch nicht nach unserem Ebenbild.</span></p>
<p><span>Aber welche <b>Werte </b>sollen dieser KI, dieser starken KI denn dann alternativ heilig sein?</span></p>
<p><span>Wir erinnern uns, dass eine <b>starke KI </b>in ihren kognitiven Fähigkeiten dem Menschen mindestens ebenbürtig sein soll.</span></p>
<p><span>Das ergibt sich aus der Definition.</span></p>
<p>Wenn sie das aber ist, wird sie aber vermutlich <b>schneller</b>sein. Wir vermuten auch, dass sie nicht <b>ermüdet</b>, keinen Schlaf benötigt.</p>
<p><span>(Ob diese Vermutungen zulässig sind, ist höchst unsicher. Wenn noch Zeit bleibt will ich gerne darüber (mit mir selber) streiten).</span></p>
<p><span>Die Zulässigkeit dieser Annahme unterstellt, wäre dann niemand besser geeignet, die KI weiter zu entwickeln, als die <b>KI selber</b>.</span></p>
<p><span></span></p>
<p>Ob das eine kluge Entscheidung wäre?</p>
<p><span>Wir müssen uns darüber im Klaren sein, dass wir in diesem Modell die <b>Kontrolle </b>aus der Hand gäben.</span></p>
<p><span>Ein neuer Strang der <b>Evolution </b>wäre eröffnet, der Ausgang per definitionem ungewiss.</span></p>
<p><span>Der Mensch wäre dann <i>out of the loop </i>- kaltgestellt.</span></p>
<h1 align="center" style="border-bottom: 1px sold navy;">KI und Gesellschaft</h1>
<p>Stimmt wohl alles, und dennoch: KI ist so etwas <b>wie Elektrizität</b>, eine Grundlagen-Technik, keine Anwendung. Aber die Anwendungen, die schon auf dieser – heutigen - Ebene zu erwarten sind, könnten uns Menschen von niederen Aufgaben befreien und eine neue Ära der Kreativität einleiten. Ein neuer <a href="https://www.kondratieff.net/kondratieffcycles">Kondratjew Zyklus</a> würde ausgelöst. (aktuell befinden wir uns im 5. Zyklus)</p>
<p><span>Damit könnten wir der <a href="https://www.amazon.de/Future-Management-Gary-Hamel/dp/1422102505">Forderung</a> von </span><b><span><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Hamel">Gary Hamel</a></span></b><span>, einem Vordenker und Experten für Management, entgegenkommen. </span></p>
<blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p><span>„</span><span><span><i>Wir haben in der Vergangenheit versucht, Menschen in maschinenähnliche Wesen zu verwandeln.</i></span></span></p><p><span><span><i>Sie sollten sich an die Industrialisierung und automatisierte, monotone Prozesse anzupassen. </i></span></span></p><p><span><span><i>Dieser Ansatz ist kontraproduktiv und schränkt die menschliche Kreativität, Innovation und Widerstandsfähigkeit ein</i>.“</span></span></p></blockquote>
<p>Anstatt Menschen in mechanistische Rollen á la „<b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolis_(1927_film)">Metropolis</a></b>“ (monumentaler Stummfilm des Expressionismus von Fritz Lang aus dem Jahr 1927) zu zwingen, befürwortet Hamel einen stärker menschenzentrierten Ansatz für Arbeit und Organisationen - und das schon seit den 90er Jahren</p>
<p><span>Doch ein solcher historischer Paradigmenwechsel könnte Arbeitsplätze auch ganz entfallen lassen und gewaltige soziale Probleme aufwerfen, warnen Experten.</span></p>
<p>Unüberwindbar müssen sie nicht sein, denn auch frühere technologische Fortschritte - von der Elektrizität bis zum Internet - haben einen starken sozialen Wandel ausgelöst, <a href="https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1051630-ai-to-bring-change-never-seen-in-human-history-observers">sagt</a> Siqi Chen, Geschäftsführer des Start-ups Runway aus San Francisco.</p>
<p><span>Der Wandel, der sich daraus ergibt, wird "</span><span><span><i>um Größenordnungen größer sein als jeder andere technologische Wandel, den wir in der Geschichte je erlebt haben</i></span>".</span></p>
<p><span>Denken wir nur kurz einmal an die Verwerfungen im Zuge Industrialisierung, wie dem langanhaltenden Schisma zwischen Kapitalismus und Kommunismus, dann dürfte uns demnächst wohl einiges bevorstehen, auf das wir in keiner Weise vorbereitet sind.</span></p>
<h1 align="center" style="border-bottom: 1px sold navy;">Regulierung</h1>
<p>Irren ist doch menschlich - na ja eigentlich. </p>
<p><span>Seine Fehlbarkeit verleiht dem Bot, der sich schließlich einem langen und anstrengenden <b>Deep Learning </b>Training hatte unterziehen müssen und dennoch irrt, schon sympathisch, menschliche Züge. </span></p>
<p><span>Er ist irgendwie einer von uns.</span></p>
<p>So <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgCUn4fQTsc">dachte</a> offenbar auch der inzwischen suspendierte <b>Google</b>-Ingenieur <b>Blake Lemoine</b>, als er Anfang des Monats behauptete, dass eine der experimentellen KI des Unternehmens namens <b>LaMDA </b>inzwischen Gefühle entwickelt hätte - was den Software-Riesen dazu veranlasste, ihn zu beurlauben.</p>
<p><span>Lemoine ist nicht allein. Auch <b>Ilya Sutskever</b>, leitender Wissenschaftler der OpenAI-Forschungsgruppe, <a href="https://towardsdatascience.com/openais-chief-scientist-claimed-ai-may-be-conscious-and-kicked-off-a-furious-debate-7338b95194e">twitterte</a> kürzlich, dass "<i>es sein kann, dass die heutigen großen neuronalen Netzwerke ein wenig Bewusstsein entwickelt</i>" hätten.</span></p>
<p><span>Das wäre also ein Wesen mit der allgemeinen <b>Intelligenz einer Heuschrecke</b>, das sich allerdings das Wissen ganzer Bibliotheken angelesen hat.</span></p>
<p><span>Allgemeine Intelligenz? Nein, so weit sind wir noch lange nicht. Es ist noch nicht einmal klar, ob wir jemals soweit kommen werden, dass wir <b>AGI</b>-Niveau (artificial general intelligence) erreichen werden. Dann wäre die „Maschine intelligenter als der Mensch“, würde ihre eigene Weiterentwicklung in die Hand nehmen und uns in den Biergarten schicken. Die <b>Singularität </b>wäre da.</span></p>
<p><span>Mag es auch noch ein langer und möglicherweise gewundener Weg sein, die <b>Angst </b>vor diesen <b>Kontrollverlust</b>, wie auch immer er ausgehen mag, ist bereits im hier und jetzt angekommen. Sie wohnt bereits unter uns. </span></p>
<p>In der KI-Szene wird daher der Ansatz des <b>Goal-Setting </b>oder <b>Value Engineering </b>diskutiert.</p>
<p><span>Dabei wird dem System bei seiner Geburt ein unveränderbarer Satz an Werten und Regeln mitgegeben, gegen die jede Handlung der KI geprüft wird.</span></p>
<p><span>Die drei und in der erweiterten Fassung vier, <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Laws_of_Robotics">Robotergesetze</a> </b>des Isaac Asimov (1942) zählen sicherlich dazu.</span></p>
<ul>
<li>0. Ein Roboter darf die <b>Menschheit </b>nicht verletzen oder durch Passivität zulassen, dass die Menschheit zu Schaden kommt.<br /><br /></li>
<li>1. Ein Roboter darf <b>keinen</b> (einzelnen) <b>Menschen</b> verletzen oder durch Untätigkeit zu Schaden kommen lassen, außer er verstieße damit gegen das nullte Gesetz.<br /><br /></li>
<li>2. Ein Roboter muss den <b>Befehlen</b> der Menschen <b>gehorchen </b>– es sei denn, solche Befehle stehen im Widerspruch zum nullten oder ersten Gesetz.<br /><br /></li>
<li>3. Ein Roboter muss seine <b>eigene Existenz</b> schützen, solange sein Handeln nicht dem nullten, ersten oder zweiten Gesetz widerspricht.</li>
</ul>
<p>Ok, das klingt gut.</p>
<p><span>So könnten wir es machen - wenn wir denn wüssten, wie es praktisch zu bewerkstelligen wäre.</span></p>
<p><span>Auch müssten sich wirklich alle Entwickler der KI <b>daranhalten</b>.</span></p>
<p><span>Dieser Entwickler aber wäre die <b>KI selber</b>, eine spezialisierte vielleicht.</span></p>
<p><span>Würde sie den mitgegebenen <b>Regeln </b>wirklich dauerhaft folgen?</span></p>
<p><span></span></p>
<h1 align="center" style="border-bottom: 1px sold navy;">Krieg als Treiber</h1>
<p>Der <b>Krieg </b>ist bekanntlich der „Vater aller Dinge“.</p>
<p><span>Er hat uns geformt, uns zu dem gemacht, was wir sind.</span></p>
<p><span>Es war der stete Kampf ums Überleben als <b>Individuum </b>und als <b>Gemeinschaft</b>, gegen alle anderen Mitspieler in unserem natürlichen Umfeld, die Umwelt selber und gegen unsere eigene Spezies. Er hat sich tief in unseren <b>Instinkten </b>und meist nur halb bewussten <b>Werten </b>verankert.</span></p>
<p>Bedauerlicherweise ist dieser Krieg auch keineswegs zu Ende.</p>
<p><span>Ganz im Gegenteil scheint in einer Zeit, in der es <b>eng wird </b>für uns auf unserem Planeten, in der wir eigentlich vermehrt als Gemeinschaft handeln sollten, als <b>Weltgemeinschaft </b>wohlgemerkt, scheinen uns unsere mitgegebenen Instinkte eher in eine andere, vertraute Richtung zu weisen: Den Kampf um die schwindenden Ressourcen, um Lebensraum, um Orte zum Überleben in einer zunehmend verwüsteten Welt.</span></p>
<p><span>Alle Zeichen deuten auf Sturm, deuten darauf hin, dass sich die Konflikte verschärfen – und bis zur allerletzten Konsequenz ausgetragen werden, werden müssen.</span></p>
<p>Es muss wohl nicht weiter begründet werden, dass dazu dann die wohl <b>wirksamste Waffe</b>, die KI nämlich, eingesetzt werden wird.</p>
<p><span>Und die Partei, die die effektivste KI einsetzen kann, wird vermutlich die Nase vorn haben, den Gegner besiegen können.</span></p>
<p><span>Wenn es um Sieg oder Niederlage geht, sind selbstverständlich <b>alle Mittel recht</b>, ich betone „alle“.</span></p>
<p><span>Glaubt jemand ernsthaft, dass auch nur einem der Kontrahenten dann eingebaute ethische Regeln noch „heilig“ sind?</span></p>
<p><span>Diese Illusion, so denke ich können wir getrost begraben.</span></p>
<p>Was aber blüht uns dann? Wie wird sich die KI verhalten, weiterentwickeln?</p>
<p><span>Welches Verhältnis wird sie zur Menschheit haben?</span></p>
<p><span>Wird sie uns ähnlich sein nur viel stärker - unser <b>Untergang </b>wäre besiegelt.</span></p>
<p><span>Wenn sie uns aber an Intelligenz <b>weit übertreffen </b>sollte, vielleicht entwickelt sie dann so etwas wie Einsicht, oder gar Weisheit und schützt uns vor uns selbst.</span></p>
<p><span>Zum Abschluss hier die Meinung des (umstrittenen) Sam Harris:<br /></span></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p><span>„</span><i><span>Eine „Superintelligenz“, die der menschlichen haushoch überlegen ist, ist unausweichlich. </span></i></p><p><i><span>Denn wenn Intelligenz nur eine Frage der Informationsverarbeitung ist und wir unsere Maschinen weiter verbessern, werden wir eine Form von Superintelligenz hervorbringen. </span></i></p><p><i><span>Dann müssen wir zugeben, dass wir dabei sind, eine Art von Gott zu erschaffen. </span></i></p><p><i><span>Jetzt wäre ein guter Zeitpunkt, um sicherzustellen, dass es ein Gott ist, mit dem wir leben können</span></i><span>.“</span></p></blockquote>
<h1 align="center" style="border-bottom: 1px sold navy;">KI für eine bessere Politik</h1>
<p><span>Es muss ja nicht gleich <b>Gott </b>sein. Wir sollten bescheiden bleiben. Wie wäre es aber damit, das <b>Regierungsgeschäft </b>von der Gemeinde bis zur supranationalen Organisation mit einem System zu unterstützen, das sich ausschließlich <b>Vernunftentscheidungen </b>verpflichtet fühlt?</span></p>
<p><span>Gründe, mit der aktuellen Politik nicht zufrieden zu sein, gibt es ausreichend. Das schwächste Glied in der Kette ist dabei der Mensch selber.</span></p>
<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span>Politiker sind „<b>Helden des Augenblicks</b>“ (<a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabor_Steingart">Gabor Steingart</a>)</span></li><li><span>Sie planen nicht langfristig.</span></li><li><span>Dazu ist ihr Job viel zu <b>unsicher</b>.</span></li><li><span>Der Berufspolitiker hat die Politik als <b>Beruf </b>– Dem gilt seine ganze Sorge.</span></li><li><span>Die Politik, für die er steht, ist nicht unwichtig, aber <b>zweitrangig</b>, gelegentlich austauschbar.</span></li><li><span>Parteiprogramme sind daher oft <b>schwammige </b>Sammlungen populärer aber zusammenhangsloser Statements.</span></li><li><span>Kein Programmierer würde sie „<b>Programm</b>“ nennen.</span></li></ul><p></p>
<p><span>Die wahren <b>Herausforderungen </b>gehen sie nicht oder halbherzig an: </span></p>
<ul>
<li>Klimawandel, </li>
<li>Ressourcenverbrauch, </li>
<li>Überbevölkerung, </li>
<li>Artensterben, </li>
<li>Ungleichheit, </li>
<li>Kriege und schließlich die </li>
<li>Grenzen des Wachstums.</li>
</ul>
<p>Die „Ochsentour“ einer Politiker-Karriere befördert eher eine charakterliche <b>Negativauslese.</b></p>
<p>Am Wahltag geben wir unsere Stimme ab – und <b>weg ist sie</b>.</p>
<p>Schnell stellt sich das Gefühl eines <b>Fehlkaufs </b>ein.</p>
<p>Oder mit <b><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannah_Arendt">Hannah Arendt</a> </b>gesprochen:</p>
<p style="margin-left: 36pt;">„<i>Niemand hat je Wahrhaftigkeit zu den politischen Tugenden gerechnet.</i></p>
<p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><i>Lügen scheint zum Handwerk nicht nur des Demagogen, sondern auch des Politikers und sogar des Staatsmannes zu gehören.</i></p>
<p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><i>Ein bemerkenswerter und beunruhigender Tatbestand</i>.“</p>
<p><span>Das dauerhafte Überleben der Menschheit in einer intakten Umwelt, ist damit nicht mehr erreichbar. </span></p>
<p><span>Dabei, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/noam-chomsky-93-issues-warning-204950540.html">so</a> Noam Chomsky, „</span><span><span style="line-height: 107%;"><i>Übersteigt die Herausforderung, die vor uns liegt, alles, was die Menschheit je erlebt hat. Das Schicksal des Lebens auf unserem Planeten steht jetzt auf dem Spiel</i></span>“.</span></p>
<p>Wie können wir das ändern? <span style="font-family: Wingdings;">à</span> <b>Weniger Mensch – mehr Programm</b></p>
<p>Als zentrales Element wollen wir <span>ein politisches <b>Orakel </b>schaffen, dem wir die Regeln mitgeben, nach denen die politische Einheit, ein Staat etwa, regiert werden sollte. An dieses werden wir dann unsere Fragen aus dem politischen Tagesgeschehen stellen können. </span></p>
<p>Eine, allerdings unzweideutige, <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythia">Pythia</a></b>, die dem Bürger nüchtern logische Auskunft gibt, Politikerentscheidungen bewertet, das politische Geschehen mit unbestechlicher Schärfe kommentiert.</p>
<p>Denn, wie <a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Kirchhof"><span>Paul Kirchhof</span></a> <span>sagt: „</span><span><span style="line-height: 107%;">Es gibt kaum noch greifbare politische Prinzipien der Verlässlichkeit, nach denen die Mächtigen in diesem Staat handeln.</span>“</span></p>
<p><span>Bei allem, was auf dem Spiel steht, sollten wir also streng nach Prinzipien handeln.</span></p>
<p><span>Warum also nicht, hat sich eine <b>kleine Gruppe </b>unerschrockener, zu der auch ich gehöre, gedacht. </span></p>
<p><span>Das Vehikel wird eine <b>synthetische Partei </b>sein.</span></p>
<p><span>Sie <b>verzichtet </b>bewusst darauf, sich an existierenden <b>Vorbildern </b>zu orientieren, will Neuland betreten.</span></p>
<p><span>Sie hat sich <b>3 Aufträge </b>gegeben …</span></p>
<ul>
<li>Eine <a name="_Hlk103613670">dauerhafte <b>Aufgabe</b></a>,</li>
<li>Eine <b>Nebenbedingung </b>und </li>
<li>Ein kurzfristiges <b>Ziel</b></li>
</ul>
<p><a name="_Hlk103780186"><span>Die <b>dauerhafte </b>Aufgabe, der wir uns verschrieben haben, ist das Überleben der Menschheit in einer intakten Umwelt dauerhaft zu ermöglichen.</span></a></p>
<p><span>Die <b>Nebenbedingung </b>dabei <b></b>ist es, dabei unsere typisch Europäischen liberalen Bürgerfreiheiten zu erhalten, die ganz nach <b>John <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Stuart_Mill">Stuart Mill</a><a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span><span><b><span face=",sans-serif" style="font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%;"> [1]</span></b></span></span></a> </b>in kritischen Zeiten besonders bedroht sind.</span></p>
<p><span>Unser <b>Kurzfristziel </b>ist es, einen Multinationenstaat „Europa“ mit ausreichend Gewicht zu schaffen, um überhaupt die Fähigkeit zu erlangen, unsere dauerhafte Aufgabe mit ihrer Nebenbedingung erfüllen zu können.</span></p>
<div style="border-bottom: 1px sold navy;">
<h1 align="center" style="border: none; padding: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span>KI in der Politik bisher</span></h1>
<p><span>Versuche künstliche Intelligenz in der Politik einzusetzen hat es bereits einige gegeben – zumeist allerdings für untergeordnete Aufgaben …</span></p>
<ul>
<li>Kampagnenplanung und -management, </li>
<li>Trend- und Mustererkennung, </li>
<li>Manipulative Wählerbeeinflussung, </li>
<li>Verkehrsoptimierung, </li>
<li>Politische Analyse, </li>
<li>Verbrechensvorhersage, </li>
<li>Ressourcenoptimierung, </li>
<li>…</li>
</ul>
<p>Im Jahr <b>2018</b> kandidierte allerdings bereits ein KI-gesteuerter Roboter namens <b><a href="https://leadership4ir.com/2018/04/19/ai-candidate-runs-for-mayor-in-japan/">Michihito Matsuda</a> </b>für das Amt des Bürgermeisters in <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tama,_Tokyo">Tama City</a></b>, einem Vorort von <b>Tokio</b>.</p>
<p>Der KI-gesteuerte Kandidat sollte rationalere, datengestützte Entscheidungen treffen könnte, ohne von Emotionen oder persönlichen Vorurteilen beeinflusst zu werden:</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Effiziente Verwaltung</b> der städtischen Ressourcen: Der KI-Kandidat versprach, städtische Daten zu analysieren und zu nutzen, um die Zuweisung von Ressourcen zu optimieren und öffentliche Dienstleistungen zu verbessern.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Fairness</b> und <b>Transparenz</b>: Da KI keine persönlichen Interessen oder Voreingenommenheiten hat, so die Kampagne, könnte KI objektivere und gerechtere Entscheidungen treffen und so mögliche Korruption oder Vetternwirtschaft in der Politik verringern.<br /><br /></li>
<li><b>Schnelle Reaktion </b>auf die Bedürfnisse der Bürger: Der KI-Kandidat wollte die Datenanalyse nutzen, um die Bedürfnisse der lokalen Gemeinschaft schnell und effektiv zu ermitteln und zu erfüllen.</li>
</ul>
<p>Der KI-Kandidat belegte mit ~ 4 000 Stimmen den dritten Platz von drei Kandidaten. Immerhin, ein Anfang war gemacht worden. Eine Reise hat begonnen.</p>
<p>Die etwas längliche Einführung in das Thema mit ihrer Betonung der Chancen und Beschränkungen hat vermutlich deutlich machen können, dass die Technik für ein politisches Orakel noch keineswegs so wohlfeil und ubiquitär verfügbar ist, wie ChatGPT.</p>
<p>Ach ja, was sagt denn unsere generative KI zu unserem Vorhaben? Hier die Antwort:</p>
</div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><div style="border-bottom: 1px sold navy;"><p><span><i>Eine der größten Herausforderungen bei der Entwicklung eines "KI-Orakels" für die politische Entscheidungsfindung besteht darin, sicherzustellen, dass das System <b>transparent </b>und <b>rechenschaftspflichtig </b>ist und in der Lage ist, fundierte und <b>zuverlässige </b>Empfehlungen abzugeben.</i></span></p></div><div style="border-bottom: 1px sold navy;"><p><i><span>Dies wird wahrscheinlich erhebliche Fortschritte bei der <b>Erklärbarkeit </b>und <b>Interpretierbarkeit </b>von KI sowie die Entwicklung neuer <b>Standards </b>und <b>Vorschriften </b>für den Einsatz von KI in der politischen Entscheidungsfindung erfordern. </span></i><span>…“</span></p></div></blockquote><div style="border-bottom: 1px sold navy;">
<p><span>Im weiteren Verlauf schlussfolgert ChatGPT 3.5, dass es wohl <b>noch einige Zeit </b>dauern kann und noch erhebliche Fortschritte in dieser Disziplin erforderlich werden, bevor uns das Orakel die Arbeit erleichtert, Berechenbarkeit und Klarheit schafft.</span></p>
<p><span>Nicht ganz einfach also.</span></p>
<p><span>Aber, <b>wenn wir es gar nicht erst versuchen, haben wir schon jetzt verloren.</b></span></p>
<p><span>Oder mit <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Schiller">Friedrich Schiller</a>: </b></span><span><span>"Wer gar zu viel bedenkt, wird wenig leisten"</span></span></p>
<p><span>Die Kunst ist der Wirklichkeit so manches Mal voraus: Zum Abschluss eine noch etwas unbeholfene Vision: “</span><a href="https://www.tomokihara.com/en/ai-mayor.html"><span>Meet the AI Mayor</span></a><span>- Interactive theatre to experience autonomous decision making.“</span></p><div>
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<div id="ftn1"><p><a href="#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span><span>[1]</span></span></a> Ein britischer Philosoph, Politiker und Ökonom, einer der einflussreichsten liberalen Denker des 19. Jahrhunderts</p></div></div></div>Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-17474186588466059942023-03-20T20:27:00.001+01:002023-03-20T20:27:25.058+01:00Wie ist eigentlich Deutschlands Rolle in der Welt?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTiGFn-zyHb08p6UaEyTVktkRCBFqtPEF6nucBFfTqT8Ml46ZkEdwJ0PmXsoV-Lf7NjUf4-903XOO2ane0UdfzE2L9zihGHvr-IeiwrX8csu7394yteh5LEVZgH3R-620s5qAi2Jqvkbs7c_pz8YOyHsTpxHWJuJSwdjc4Q08v-muXt0OPJQ/s512/Helmut%20Schmidt%20Smoking%20-%20d252a6ce7f08a2f5.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="512" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTiGFn-zyHb08p6UaEyTVktkRCBFqtPEF6nucBFfTqT8Ml46ZkEdwJ0PmXsoV-Lf7NjUf4-903XOO2ane0UdfzE2L9zihGHvr-IeiwrX8csu7394yteh5LEVZgH3R-620s5qAi2Jqvkbs7c_pz8YOyHsTpxHWJuJSwdjc4Q08v-muXt0OPJQ/w200-h200/Helmut%20Schmidt%20Smoking%20-%20d252a6ce7f08a2f5.png" width="200" /></a></div>
<p>Deutschland macht in diesen Tagen den Eindruck eines Getriebenen. Die Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine bleiben Diskussionsthema Nummer eins – zumal Kiew einen Nachschlag fordert. Nach den Panzern die Kampfflugzeuge</p>
<p>Der deutsche Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz ist von den Verbündeten in der NATO, wie auch von der westlichen Presse, viel für seine zögerliche Haltung im Ukraine Konflikt kritisiert worden. Während die Deutsche Außenministerin Annalena Baerbock 2023-01-24 in einem Statement in Straßburg mal eben vom Krieg des Westens gegen Russland spricht, hat sich der Deutsche Bundeskanzler bisher mit starken Worten deutlich zurückgehalten. Er hat vermutlich Gründe dafür. Welche könnten das sein?</p>
<p>Viele Deutsche sind eher unglücklich mit dem Kriegsverlauf in der Ukraine und wünschen sich nichts sehnlicher als einen Friedensschluss. Ein von Sahra Wagenknecht und Alice Schwarzer entworfenes Manifest bringt diese Gefühle auf den Punkt. Liegt hier eine Erklärung für das Verhalten des Kanzlers? Vermutlich noch nicht.</p>
<h1>Der Blick von außen</h1>
<p>Am 23. Februar 2023 <a href="https://quincyinst.org/event/the-promise-and-peril-of-germanys-post-ukraine-foreign-policy-shift/">schrieb</a> das für seine kritische Einstellung gegenüber der geo-politischen Haltung der US-Regierung bekannte <i>Quincy Institute for Responsable Statecraft</i>:</p>
<p>“<i>Der Einmarsch Russlands in die Ukraine hat zu einem radikalen Wandel in der deutschen Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik geführt. Dazu gehören Maßnahmen, die noch vor einem Jahr undenkbar gewesen wären, wie die Lieferung von schweren Waffen an die Ukraine. </i></p>
<p><i>Dieser Wandel hat jedoch auch zu erheblichen Spaltungen in der deutschen Regierungskoalition und zu Unbehagen in Teilen der deutschen Gesellschaft geführt. Unter den Deutschen, insbesondere in der Industrie, herrscht auch Besorgnis über die Gefahren für die deutsche Wirtschaft, wenn Deutschland den USA darin folgen muss, die Wirtschaft Chinas, die ein wichtiger Markt für deutsche Exporte ist, zu isolieren und zu schwächen. </i></p>
<p><i>Diese Fragen sind nicht nur für Deutschland, sondern auch für die Europäische Union und die künftige Kohärenz des transatlantischen Bündnisses von entscheidender Bedeutung</i>.“</p>
<h1> Der Blick von Innen</h1>
<p>In seinem neuen Buch „Führung und Verantwortung“, das zur etwa gleichen Zeit im Siedler Verlag erschien, skizziert der Vorsitzende der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz, Christoph Heusgen, jene Führungsrolle Deutschlands in der Welt, die beispielsweise Sigmar Gabriel für unglaubwürdig hielte (siehe unten), die aber ex-Bundespräsident Joachim Gauck 2014 bereits in München einforderte.</p>
<p>Der Düsseldorfer Wirtschaftswissenschaftler und Diplomat, ehemaliger Stabschef des EU-Außenbeauftragten Javier Solana und 12-jahrelanger außenpolitischer Berater der Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel meint, dass die Zeit des „Leading from behind“ vorbei sei:</p>
<p>„<i>Die Bundesregierung muss sich bewusstwerden, dass Führung und Verantwortung nicht heißen kann, immer nur als Letzter das Richtige zu tun.</i> “</p>
<p>Ex-Vizekanzler und ehemalige Außenminister Sigmar Gabriel wagte unlängst in einem Gespräch mit Journalisten die Prognose: „<i>Ich bin relativ sicher, dass die Ukraine Kampfflugzeuge bekommen wird</i>.“</p>
<p>Dann fügte er den entscheidenden Satz hinzu:</p>
<p>„<i>Aber die politische Entscheidung, ob wir uns daran beteiligen, ist keine deutsche: Ich würde dazu raten, die Führung da zu lassen, wo sie ist, nämlich bei den USA.</i>“</p>
<p>In seiner Regierungserklärung lieferte Kanzler Scholz denn auch nur vage Durchhalteparolen wie „<i>Der Weg hin zu diesem Frieden erfordert tapferes Handeln</i>“, aber kaum brauchbare Informationen. Zur Blitzvisite im Weißen Haus waren im Regierungsflugzeug erstmals in seiner Amtszeit Journalisten unerwünscht. Die übliche Pressekonferenz im Weißen Haus entfiel. Für überzeugte Demokraten sollte das ein Warnsignal sein. </p>
<p>Nach einer neuen Führungsrolle in Europa oder gar in der Welt sieht das nicht aus, eher nach Vasallentreue gegenüber einem übermächtigen Hegemonen. Es braucht schon Scheuklappen, um diesen Zustand als die beste der Optionen zu betrachten.</p>
<h1>Der Blick über den Tellerrand</h1>
<p>Vielleicht gibt es aktuell aber auch keine guten Handlungsoptionen für einen Zwergstaat wie Deutschland – jedenfalls nicht kurzfristig. </p>
<p>Wenn wir einen Deutschen Politiker mit einer nüchternen Einschätzung der Situation und einem klaren Blick auf die Möglichkeiten suchen, müssen wir wohl einige Jahre zurück gehen.</p>
<p>Auf seinem letzten öffentlichen Auftritt auf einem SPD-Parteitag (2011-12-04) wirkte der damals 92-Jährige frischer als mancher Delegierte im Saal. Er wandte sich vehement gegen „<i>die schädliche deutschnationale Kraftmeierei“</i>. Wenn 2050 neun Milliarden Menschen auf der Erde wimmeln werden, wird der alte Kontinent nicht mehr wie 2011 30 Prozent der weltweiten Wirtschaftsleistung erbringen, sondern nur noch ein Zehntel dessen.
Spätestens dann werde ein Land alleine „nicht mehr in Prozent gemessen, sondern nur noch in Promillezahlen</p>
<p>Hellsichtig fürwahr. Als der frühere Bundestagspräsident Wolfgang Thierse ihn fragte, wann die Bundesrepublik denn endlich ein ganz normales Land in Europa sein werde, war Schmidts Antwort war ebenso kurz wie ernüchternd: „<i>In absehbarer Zeit nicht</i>.“ Nach zwei Kriegen in einem Jahrhundert hätten noch Generationen von Deutschen mit ihrer historischen Last und dem latenten Argwohn in den europäischen Nachbarländern zu leben, prophezeit er.</p>
<p>Diese Gedanken weitergeführt, liegt Deutschlands Rolle eher in einer engen Integration mit den europäischen Nachbarländern, die eine gesellschaftliche Prägung erfahren haben, die gleiche Werte in ihrer <i>Firmware</i> tragen. Ein Rütlischwur auf europäischer Ebene würde es uns zumindest ermöglichen, statt in Promille wieder mit einem Prozentanteil am Weltgeschehen bemessen zu werden.</p>
Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-15028216921060178012023-03-20T20:27:00.000+01:002023-03-20T20:27:15.255+01:00What is actually Germany's role in the world? <p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC-z0YFIfcP8bOWkdCpx_pDkX4uwGf8yYUsjslKnlLbr7n5zBCgDMP7bd6XokTJJuOfHwO4bD5lXMIY1UH7bKPGNAQJLEhNIYPpDZKKNFZruU5XJfhU1YU3iDKhzQsk41k0kl6mLpqvpSAfPBFf0-QMDHUdhnLWZIidLker1pel8NWe4FcnA/s512/Helmut%20Schmidt%20Smoking%20-%20d252a6ce7f08a2f5.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="512" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC-z0YFIfcP8bOWkdCpx_pDkX4uwGf8yYUsjslKnlLbr7n5zBCgDMP7bd6XokTJJuOfHwO4bD5lXMIY1UH7bKPGNAQJLEhNIYPpDZKKNFZruU5XJfhU1YU3iDKhzQsk41k0kl6mLpqvpSAfPBFf0-QMDHUdhnLWZIidLker1pel8NWe4FcnA/w200-h200/Helmut%20Schmidt%20Smoking%20-%20d252a6ce7f08a2f5.png" width="200" /></a></div>These days, Germany gives the impression of being driven, rather than being in the driver seat. Deliveries of heavy weapons to Ukraine remain the number one topic of discussion - especially since Kiev is demanding a second helping. First tanks, followed by fighter jets<p></p>
<p>German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been much criticised by NATO allies, as well as by the Western press, for his hesitant stance in the Ukraine conflict. While the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock in a statement in Strasbourg frankly speaks of a war of the West against Russia, the German Chancellor has so far refrained from using strong words. He probably has reasons for this. What could they be?</p>
<p>Many Germans are rather unhappy with the course of the war in Ukraine and would like nothing more than a peace agreement. A manifesto drafted by Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer sums up these feelings. Is there an explanation for the chancellor's behaviour here? Probably not yet. </p>
<h1>The view from outside </h1>
<p>On 23 February 2023, the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, known for its critical attitude towards the US government's geo-political stance, <a href="https://quincyinst.org/event/the-promise-and-peril-of-germanys-post-ukraine-foreign-policy-shift/" target="_blank">wrote</a>:</p>
<p>"<i>Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to a radical shift in German foreign and security policy. This includes measures that would have been unthinkable a year ago, such as the delivery of heavy weapons to Ukraine.</i>"</p>
<p><i>However, this change has also led to significant divisions in the German governing coalition and unease in parts of German society. There is also concern among Germans, especially in industry, about the dangers to the German economy if Germany has to follow the US in isolating and weakening the economy of China, which is an important market for German exports.</i></p>
<p><i>These issues are crucial not only for Germany but also for the European Union and the future coherence of the transatlantic alliance.</i>"</p>
<h1>The view from within</h1>
<p>In his new book "<i>Führung und Verantwortung</i>" (Leadership and Responsibility), published at about the same time by Siedler Verlag, the chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, outlines the leadership role of Germany in the world, which Sigmar Gabriel, for example, would find implausible (see below), but which ex-Federal President Joachim Gauck already called for in Munich in 2014. </p><p>The Düsseldorf economist and diplomat, former chief of staff to EU foreign affairs envoy Javier Solana and foreign policy advisor to German Chancellor Angela Merkel for 12 years, believes that the time of "<i>leading from behind</i>" is over: "<i>The German government must realise that leadership and responsibility cannot mean always being the last to do the right thing.</i>" </p><p>Ex-vice chancellor and former foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel recently ventured the prediction in a conversation with journalists: "I'm relatively sure that Ukraine will get fighter jets."
</p><p>Then he added the crucial sentence:</p>
<p>"But the political decision whether we participate in this is not a German one: my advice would be to leave the lead where it is, with the US."</p>
<p>In his government statement, Chancellor Scholz provided only vague slogans such as "<i>The path to peace requires courageous action</i>", but hardly any useful information. </p><p>For the flash visit to the White House, journalists were not allowed on the government plane for the first time in his term of office. The usual White House press conference was cancelled. For diehard democrats, this should be a warning signal. </p><p>It does not look like a new leadership role in Europe or even in the world, more like vassal loyalty to a mighty hegemon. It takes blinkers to see this state of affairs as the best of the options.</p>
<h1>Looking beyond the horizon</h1>
<p>Perhaps however there are currently no good options around for a dwarf state like Germany - at least not in the short term.</p>
<p>If we are looking for a German politician with a sober assessment of the situation and a clear view of the options, we probably have to go back a few years.</p>
<p>At his last public appearance at an SPD party conference (2011-12-04), the then 92-year-old seemed fresher than many a delegate in the hall. He vehemently opposed "<i>the harmful German-national strongmanism</i>". When nine billion people swarm the earth in 2050, the old continent will no longer produce 30 per cent of the world's economic output, as it did in 2011, but only a tenth of that. By then at the latest, a country alone will "no longer be measured in percentages, but only in parts per thousand".</p>
<p>A lucid vision indeed. When former Bundestag President Wolfgang Thierse asked him when the Federal Republic would finally become a normal country in Europe, Schmidt's answer was as short as it was sobering: "<i>Not in the foreseeable future.</i>” After two wars in a century, generations of Germans would still have to live with their historical burden and the latent suspicion of neighbouring European countries, he predicted.</p>
<p>Taking these thoughts further, Germany's role is more likely to lie in close integration with neighbouring European countries that have experienced a similar social moulding and which carry the same values in their firmware. A Rütli oath at the European level would at least enable us to be measured again with a percentage share in world affairs instead of per thousand.</p><p></p><p></p>Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-87157573962312579162022-04-03T17:17:00.008+02:002022-04-03T17:42:05.385+02:00Birdwatching in times of pandemic<span style="font-family: verdana;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhyQmPiIDDr_-wVJzf9HgUWq-3G8DjFsGVuk0UG4np0fCryzVslxWCtXqSU97uZUwFg9kM8U2y7BBhPN30wZLaBRQPy4SOzc95WjgAPhlwotv8FEWlx8IzXQ6cnL6HCKIfCBq9tEgFF8Av_dGq9ppNKmcmRYYbPvq1WMJ5UrIZY4s-8BOvg/s3000/Great%20Spotted%20Woodpecker%205-tr.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="3000" height="134" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQhyQmPiIDDr_-wVJzf9HgUWq-3G8DjFsGVuk0UG4np0fCryzVslxWCtXqSU97uZUwFg9kM8U2y7BBhPN30wZLaBRQPy4SOzc95WjgAPhlwotv8FEWlx8IzXQ6cnL6HCKIfCBq9tEgFF8Av_dGq9ppNKmcmRYYbPvq1WMJ5UrIZY4s-8BOvg/w400-h134/Great%20Spotted%20Woodpecker%205-tr.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p>The pandemic has brought all kinds of temporary and perhaps some permanent changes. For example, WFH (work from home) has become socially acceptable. Whereas previously the general suspicion was that the typical wage slave, as soon as he or she had supposedly successfully evaded disciplinary supervision in this way, would immediately slow down and shift from turbo gear to idle, the spasm of eternal mistrust among micro-managers has rather loosened.</p>
<p>Now, early on in my "career" I had preferred self-exploitation to exploitation, i.e. no longer having a boss. Since I no longer felt capable of serving in a hierarchy, I simply had to be the company myself. But regardless of whether I'm employed or freelance, my personal experience is that, with the elimination of forced set-up, travel and idle time, I exhaustingly devote significantly more time to the work I've been commissioned to do than ever before. At times it was even clearly too much.</p>
<p>Sometimes my gaze wanders through the window to the outside, whether annoyed by the last Zoom online meeting or on the wings of imagination, and falls on equally winged contemporaries who live out their social Darwinism outside the offices of this world.</p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAmcWVbPfHYOyOGTiEUk-6qhxgiRdxnEHCHqfDR2oc0exuvVXCR43Epxc7ce_Gg98NxHpEZ8V2aVPZWo51HnnzW1NVSpFT-h2fEOLwBilJQdCWajVip0rsdc4WvCm4j7zwEI0Qn_vNGW9aG0msqS1ScCloYkUcuPOWPU2T8KF8WNQOCE0NFg/s1452/Great%20Tit%202-tr.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1308" data-original-width="1452" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAmcWVbPfHYOyOGTiEUk-6qhxgiRdxnEHCHqfDR2oc0exuvVXCR43Epxc7ce_Gg98NxHpEZ8V2aVPZWo51HnnzW1NVSpFT-h2fEOLwBilJQdCWajVip0rsdc4WvCm4j7zwEI0Qn_vNGW9aG0msqS1ScCloYkUcuPOWPU2T8KF8WNQOCE0NFg/w182-h164/Great%20Tit%202-tr.png" width="182" /></a></div>And there it arrives, the <b>great tit </b>squad: black cap pulled deep into the face, determined look, disciplined, organised, real no-nonsense types, they seek out the usual food suspicion spots according to plan and systematically and, as it seems, at fixed times in predetermined order. There also seem to be some unusual ones, you never know. For example, they like to hang upside down under window ledges or garden wall projections, where spiders and woodlice find shelter from the vagaries of the weather - but not from the unwavering tit squad. The leader, a strong, decisive type, is in call contact with his troop at all times via snappy, short commands. Nothing is left to chance. You disoriented, confused team leads - here's your role model 😊<p></p>
<p>And when I deposit the local squirrel's daily pre-cracked walnut (it cannot crack ripe and hard-dried walnuts, but must hungrily bury them until they are soft-rotten) at the agreed hiding place, it is not long before the site's GTS (Great Tit Squad) appears for inspection. No sooner have I moved even a metre or two out of the way than the squad leader heroically checks for safety and accessibility, having previously berated me profusely. Meanwhile, the comrades secure the area from the background. Then it's their turn, one after the other. Keeping order is duty number one..</p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLPPegdiHqFmHK5lCm7GoOICUxciClopmw3RiOryoj2nMDxzFWOjzsyJt1RcU9k8JmyAzLmRCFeQiA0RHbQPe6VRdYo6eeTsS3t8gtTfKLq_fTbsHwPhKcz8HFbQwDo5JQVn9fxz5nWKYJB5V1rhoiz83Urm0XC4Z6oRzv6yTW777OMVKtug/s1220/Blue%20Tit%202-tr.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1180" data-original-width="1220" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLPPegdiHqFmHK5lCm7GoOICUxciClopmw3RiOryoj2nMDxzFWOjzsyJt1RcU9k8JmyAzLmRCFeQiA0RHbQPe6VRdYo6eeTsS3t8gtTfKLq_fTbsHwPhKcz8HFbQwDo5JQVn9fxz5nWKYJB5V1rhoiz83Urm0XC4Z6oRzv6yTW777OMVKtug/w171-h166/Blue%20Tit%202-tr.png" width="171" /></a></div>It was precisely this sacred duty that I had once sinned against, as for a few days I did not punctually provide the troops with their pre-cracked walnut provisions. When I was caught uncamouflaged by the Commandante near the agreed delivery point, he flew up death-defyingly close, positioned himself exactly above the empty walnut basket, looked ostentatiously into the unprovided basket exactly 3 times, followed by a loud protesting beep each time, and vanished. That was a close call. Red-faced, I immediately went to get more food.<p></p>
<p>The discovery of the energy-rich winter food source quickly caught on with the playful <b>blue tits</b>, who, smaller and less well organised, chattering loudly, first have to negotiate who is to enjoy first place. Even the local robin, which is usually only interested in my activities close to the ground, lets itself be animated to nibble on this according to robin tradition rather exotic food. Well, if you have a choice, you go to a fine Italian restaurant, have your palate tickled Thai-style or venture into experimental cuisine.</p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuwWZpz2wXVjdkw8yPzzHYsHhgYhMxK4Y39sE29foChQ4dLTVvoPiRhhMH36NuN73x-jL9J0xtFQfAxLk624F_-C64BppPIL5fxMsUzOa2ujCn0vGR9A6W5d5pmWPHvTfuFgvUXX4sw04FMqNmELopX2rhAbXqsP5SVC3cIzbxYDyobgYYVQ/s879/robin%20painting-tr.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="879" data-original-width="602" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuwWZpz2wXVjdkw8yPzzHYsHhgYhMxK4Y39sE29foChQ4dLTVvoPiRhhMH36NuN73x-jL9J0xtFQfAxLk624F_-C64BppPIL5fxMsUzOa2ujCn0vGR9A6W5d5pmWPHvTfuFgvUXX4sw04FMqNmELopX2rhAbXqsP5SVC3cIzbxYDyobgYYVQ/w118-h173/robin%20painting-tr.png" width="118" /></a></div>That site <b>robin </b>is a very special character anyway. When I look at bushes from the inside or clamber around in the trees, it only has a contemptuous peep for me. But woe betide me if I play the ground-hugging berserk. Any earthwork immediately sets it on its heels, raking a path is quite good, planting a little tree even better. But the hit of the winter is turning over the compost heap. It's a veritable feast that is apparently anticipated all year round. I wonder what primal instincts are being appealed to? Perhaps it equates me with a belated offspring of an aurochs or other primeval giant bovine beast, auspiciously buzzing from circulating insects. Hmmm, very flattering. While I'm vigorously swinging the shovel or fork, a cheeky little one enters the fray. "Girl, how am I supposed to work if you're always hopping around between my wellies?" I have to admit that the gender assumption was pure speculation - it just seemed that way to me. It just stands there in front of me and fixes me with a look that conveys something between self-confidence and renitence. At best, I get a sneer around its beak. But despite all the unavoidable, brief proximity, it avoids being photographed with a meaningful reference to the German Data Protection Act (GDPR), which is punishable by law, and escapes. It's no wonder that I haven't made it to the glory of a high-ranking manager of a DAX company when I'm already being shown up by such a little peacock.<p></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8GbrYzNLa7Y-RCXEhIpf7Dic2A2CLVPSYVZfI0pKz4EoFsR3v11ZBUyDzbB3FczFotj0yR2oZUeb2os6_2F0XnE1rNs_1Bxif-5WhkIWCbQe0EEvxkWCGJPVi7v5j5DnaFx-Yrw5pA_vjGu4QSueDnTxCUNtLvf7Yrv-X3XCqk-qBU_6yeA/s1276/Amsel-tr.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1167" data-original-width="1276" height="136" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8GbrYzNLa7Y-RCXEhIpf7Dic2A2CLVPSYVZfI0pKz4EoFsR3v11ZBUyDzbB3FczFotj0yR2oZUeb2os6_2F0XnE1rNs_1Bxif-5WhkIWCbQe0EEvxkWCGJPVi7v5j5DnaFx-Yrw5pA_vjGu4QSueDnTxCUNtLvf7Yrv-X3XCqk-qBU_6yeA/w149-h136/Amsel-tr.png" width="149" /></a></div>Actually, it's only when the weather is tropical that I slowly reach an optimal operating temperature. After a cold and dark winter, however, even a few restrained rays of sunshine tempt me to all kinds of daring outdoor missions in clearly hypothermic conditions. But there are other dangers besides hypothermia. With the first tender rays of spring, the <b>blackbirds </b>are completely off their rocker. Small, black-feathered and horribly agitated flying monsters, they acquiescently accept collateral damage when they chase each other through the botany in fierce territorial battles. If you're not careful and negligently stay within the clearance of the usual flight paths, you can expect to be wing-whipped by a crazed flying dragon. The nerve-wracking shock of a near miss of the blackbird bully is almost routine. Gladiator fights in the back garden, almost as exciting as the tussle for the CDU (The German "Christian Democratic Party", which had only recently fought its own internal turf wars.) party chair. Oh, life can so exciting!<p></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7M5HGS4bwp3ekdf9yMrRjv8_ODbDlfjlYU25yzwcf1LHq7RTO7ZwyykBzR-uC5kuOeLkUDTGjnFOOsHx26R8g_P5nMz1kbqaqU4HVXsatF56NAkeyVJ5VYEMySoMOKER7oAp1vNo0Pua_e0oqToTahluHpwZGoKWveNmdJcD-Lvo75iga2Q/s500/M%C3%B6nchsgrasm%C3%BCcke_17366589-origpic-b86e0d-tr.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="500" height="134" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7M5HGS4bwp3ekdf9yMrRjv8_ODbDlfjlYU25yzwcf1LHq7RTO7ZwyykBzR-uC5kuOeLkUDTGjnFOOsHx26R8g_P5nMz1kbqaqU4HVXsatF56NAkeyVJ5VYEMySoMOKER7oAp1vNo0Pua_e0oqToTahluHpwZGoKWveNmdJcD-Lvo75iga2Q/w162-h134/M%C3%B6nchsgrasm%C3%BCcke_17366589-origpic-b86e0d-tr.png" width="162" /></a></div>The battles have been fought, the territories distributed, after nest-building and egg-laying, the breeding duties are a little more tranquil, only to suddenly change into unseemly hecticness. At first, I could only make out the vapour trail of the rapid flight path of a projectile, once from right to left, then the other way round. Only those who stand too close to a race track have to turn his head similarly fast. Only the slow motion exposes the culprit: a <b>blackcap</b> in feeding stress. According to the BUND website, the blackcap does not love grass so much as dense "undergrowth". Well, we have plenty of that, and not at all out of negligence, but with deliberate intent: bed & breakfast for birds. And if the terrace flight path is blocked by completely useless and flightless two-legged creatures, the feeding flight path is laid at breakneck speed through this very undergrowth. These parental kamikaze actions make you dizzy just watching them. What parental stress, perhaps not the right sight for young suitors who are toying with the idea of marrying a woman and starting a family with two, always smiling, little children. After all, one might start to wonder.<p></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX8FHQd96xfXB6stZk22cetHwIcvi9VhzbBU3qLfbASuzuHMaTsqQjmwzII8xDnm23yuLKFT9E0ipj3uMmhNlw8ZnIJnLpL3eJyokgh0frfvAn4OYLCmz9cJhgiqleD08ZJkgxCFJL_4_CMfiDv5XacLdowBiZSiwD_pWryXMvqgS1lUzF4g/s668/Jay%202-tr.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="668" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX8FHQd96xfXB6stZk22cetHwIcvi9VhzbBU3qLfbASuzuHMaTsqQjmwzII8xDnm23yuLKFT9E0ipj3uMmhNlw8ZnIJnLpL3eJyokgh0frfvAn4OYLCmz9cJhgiqleD08ZJkgxCFJL_4_CMfiDv5XacLdowBiZSiwD_pWryXMvqgS1lUzF4g/w180-h148/Jay%202-tr.png" width="180" /></a></div>Not all feathered dinosaur offspring are so fiercely loyal. These are the winter visitors in busy transit: <b>Tail tits</b>, loudly exchanging their travel adventures with each other in a large, chatty group in the winter-bare blackthorn, <b>goldcrests</b>, with their colourful mohawk, occasionally stop here on their spring procession from spruce forest to spruce forest, A flock of <b>linnets</b>, which according to NABU "fly over us in waves in the manner of finches" (oh, I see), did not come here for the winter, but rather to escape from the countryside, where they can no longer live in our systematically cleared fields. Even a pair of <b>wrens </b>in search of a little kingdom prefers small market niches in the cities to the desolate farmland. Year-round marauders get along everywhere: <b>jays</b>, <b>magpies</b> and the occasional <b>crow </b>roam marauding through the front gardens … and now and then a white elephant ... (no, that doesn't belong here) ... The top of sovereignty, however, is the <b>spotted woodpecker,</b> a self-confident and intrepid representative of the working masses, industrious and hard-working, but with no sense of playful frippery.<p></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir5VQbikvQntWBM1SpTD4giKUA_ZNdVX--Uc18uDvRzoJO1ergq0emMr1DNQrLsjufusdWBVKk7X8Etle_Y8N4xEzRiRkRpcsKlknfkVqWpTj_WbuIYQhekCbq6h1HBPLL4u0RUp4Km3XPznAfh2Nza0KGoU2e7en5DdBG03_f7npM-a9OSA/s894/Pyrrhula_pyrrhula_male-tr.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="647" data-original-width="894" height="125" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir5VQbikvQntWBM1SpTD4giKUA_ZNdVX--Uc18uDvRzoJO1ergq0emMr1DNQrLsjufusdWBVKk7X8Etle_Y8N4xEzRiRkRpcsKlknfkVqWpTj_WbuIYQhekCbq6h1HBPLL4u0RUp4Km3XPznAfh2Nza0KGoU2e7en5DdBG03_f7npM-a9OSA/w173-h125/Pyrrhula_pyrrhula_male-tr.png" width="173" /></a></div>We also have a bird of paradise. He is not quite so loyal to his location. Or he simply has a larger home territory for his escapades. He doesn't let let his cards show on this topic. As a real poser, our neighbourhood <b>bullfinch </b>always knows how to pose surprisingly and media-effectively at eye level. His purple belly shines in the evening sun, making the bystanders' jaws drop - whoa, dude! Of course, you can't let a pretty boy like that out of your sight for a moment. And so his inconspicuous, wife is never far away. Blinded by the unearthly beauty of this garden jewel, only the trained eye discovers her at near-field distance in the branches. We are talking here about an elderly couple who have been putting on a professional show for years on their tour of the community.<p></p>
<p>Among the melancholier scenes in the great chorus of the feathered is the <b>pigeon </b>drama, which was even played in several repetitions. The city pigeon as such (as what else?) presumably descends mainly from feral domestic and carrier pigeons, which in turn were bred from the rock pigeon. Aha, I wonder if they were already so clumsy back then? Or are the mad blunderers of the air rather the result of a decadent civilizational decline? I have to admit it: Nesting sites are scarce. The housing shortage in cities and rural areas is endemic and affects everyone. But is that reason enough to entrust one's brood in unsecured nests that are non-professionally crafted? In a bamboo grove, for example, where the next storm will literally catapult out the clutch of eggs together with the fast breeder? There the once hopeful offspring lay in the sunlight after the storm: naked and lifeless. Lack of due diligence in building a house has ended many a young life all too soon 😞</p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJeD5W1b39m0dG-M4xAO6X3PTPmTX6InYiqTTYEYPpxnrAevE81HuFBeRWywUOOrhMNVx8SSbxp8b8fORQep0LeIgiTv2jX0LFNgvpQd2j61G78JeoJW7MSrPbXr0M8_LRucmDeoXxe8mZQ6DWlaZzYf-_nSmn5ZEJE0EAvJGSKsI_GVE_SQ/s374/RabenkraeheGr-tr.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="257" data-original-width="374" height="117" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJeD5W1b39m0dG-M4xAO6X3PTPmTX6InYiqTTYEYPpxnrAevE81HuFBeRWywUOOrhMNVx8SSbxp8b8fORQep0LeIgiTv2jX0LFNgvpQd2j61G78JeoJW7MSrPbXr0M8_LRucmDeoXxe8mZQ6DWlaZzYf-_nSmn5ZEJE0EAvJGSKsI_GVE_SQ/w169-h117/RabenkraeheGr-tr.png" width="169" /></a></div>An early encounter on a Sunday morning jog before dew and day has brought me closer to the wild boar of the skies - or not. <b>Rooks </b>casually greet me every Sunday, snidely with their Working Song: "We scavenge the bins till no one else wins. Our chieftain is called Black Mighty Cloak. ... (in between, I couldn't understand anything because of the steam turbine) ... we rest in the giant oak." was what I thought I could make out from their chanting as I approached - in rookish language, of course. But I’m well advised better not to stop. As in such case I am looked at disparagingly from top to bottom: "What do you want here, you laughing stock? Get the f*** out of here. Otherwise, I'll give you some friendly knock between your horns!"<p></p>
<p>Oh, oh, am I no longer up to the harsh reality out there after two years of "home office"? But giving up is not an option. I defiantly begin my personal resocialisation programme 😊</p>
<p>Hello world, here I come</p>
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<br />Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-77827781073571195362022-04-02T22:51:00.008+02:002022-04-03T17:47:06.210+02:00Bird Spotting in Pandemiezeiten<span style="font-family: verdana;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4YAJCbQMVAhXoQz4OOGLc3LU_TO-kRcQB5z_yTVMHjdhSicvWUs6Y5fKcamHQnNvzZSU-KKIyMQyqJ6nSY_E4aK08ttgUcSFD0TOkgv_Qa47KalyxPiJs-XNrV9gNqfylVwl-CikoTWOlMjWjkv9ObIoB6xpQK7t196-_KAzEWxEixIZ3hw/s3000/Great%20Spotted%20Woodpecker%205-tr.png" style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="3000" height="134" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4YAJCbQMVAhXoQz4OOGLc3LU_TO-kRcQB5z_yTVMHjdhSicvWUs6Y5fKcamHQnNvzZSU-KKIyMQyqJ6nSY_E4aK08ttgUcSFD0TOkgv_Qa47KalyxPiJs-XNrV9gNqfylVwl-CikoTWOlMjWjkv9ObIoB6xpQK7t196-_KAzEWxEixIZ3hw/w400-h134/Great%20Spotted%20Woodpecker%205-tr.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p>Die Pandemie hat so allerlei zeitweise und vielleicht auch einige bleibende Veränderungen mit sich gebracht. So ist beispielsweise WFH (work from home) gesellschaftsfähig geworden. Galt zuvor der Generalverdacht der typische Lohn-Sklave würde, sobald er sich auf diese Weise vermeintlich erfolgreich der disziplinarischen Aufsicht entzogen hätte, unmittelbar „den Griffel fallen lassen“ und vom Turbo-Gang in den Leerlauf schalten, so hat sich der Krampf des ewigen Misstrauens bei den Micro-Managern eher gelöst. </p>
<p>Nun hatte ich bereits frühzeitig in meiner „Laufbahn“ die Selbstausbeutung der Ausbeutung vorgezogen, also keinen Chef mehr zu haben. Da ich mich nicht mehr als hierarchiefähig empfand, musste ich eben selber das Unternehmen sein. Aber unabhängig davon, ob abhängig oder frei beschäftigt, meine persönliche Erfahrung ist, dass ich unter Wegfall erzwungener Rüst-, Wege- und Leerlaufzeiten deutlich mehr Zeit der beauftragten Arbeit widme, als je zuvor. Zeitweise war es sogar deutlich zu viel.</p>
<p>Da wandert der Blick schon mal durch das Fenster nach draußen, ob vom letzten Zoom-Meeting genervt oder auf den Flügeln der Phantasie, und fällt auf ebenso geflügelte Zeitgenossen, die ihren Sozialdarwinismus außerhalb der Büros dieser Welt ausleben.</p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu-5iZE-kY0jvXzfrKd9n8YiJPLMueGRAkqKE0oRywMkjZkxiFTRFhnT5UXajp-vtm_Hr-7YfW5GrkFrGfdAdH6yqk4ChChbT1J8B10-mfLe1dE27myCWw1zbHjePOwVUbvM1FIHvPB7ePYDJGxrT3AwjpH5DCbCT-LNXBmxPEsNktwXTMHw/s1452/Great%20Tit%202-tr.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1308" data-original-width="1452" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu-5iZE-kY0jvXzfrKd9n8YiJPLMueGRAkqKE0oRywMkjZkxiFTRFhnT5UXajp-vtm_Hr-7YfW5GrkFrGfdAdH6yqk4ChChbT1J8B10-mfLe1dE27myCWw1zbHjePOwVUbvM1FIHvPB7ePYDJGxrT3AwjpH5DCbCT-LNXBmxPEsNktwXTMHw/w169-h152/Great%20Tit%202-tr.png" width="169" /></a></div>Und da rückt es an, das <b>Kohlmeisen</b> Squad: Schwarzes Käppi tief ins Gesicht gezogen, entschlossener Blick, diszipliniert, organisiert, echte No-Nonsense-Typen, suchen sie planmäßig und systematisch und, wie es scheint, zu festen Zeiten in vorgegebener Ordnung die üblichen Nahrungsverdachtsstellen auf. Es scheinen mir auch unübliche dabei zu sein, man weiß ja nie. So hängen sie gern einmal kopfüber unter Fenstersimsen oder Gartenmauervorsprüngen, wo Spinnen und Asseln Schutz vor den Unbillen der Witterung finden – aber nicht vor dem unbeirrbaren Meisenkommando. Der Anführer, ein kräftiger, entscheidungsfreudiger Typ steht über zackige, kurze Kommandos jederzeit im Rufkontakt mit seinem Trupp. Da wird nichts dem Zufall überlassen. Ihr orientierungsschwachen, verpeilten Team-Leads – hier ist euer Vorbild 😊<p></p>
<p>Und wenn ich dem Haus-Eichhörnchen die tägliche vorgeknackte Walnuss (reife und hartgetrocknete kann es nicht knacken, muss sie hungrig vergraben, bis sie weich geschmort sind.) an vereinbartem Ort im Versteck hinterlege, dann dauert es nicht lange, bis der KMT (Kohlmeisentrupp) des Standorts zur Inspektion antritt. Kaum habe ich mich auch nur ein bis zwei Meter entfernt, prüft der Truppführer Zugänglichkeit und Zuträglichkeit im heldenhaften Selbstversuch, nachdem er mich zuvor deutlich mit kräftigen Flüchen bedacht hat. Die Kameraden sichern derweil aus dem Hintergrund. Sie kommen anschließend an die Reihe, einer nach dem anderen. Ordnung muss sein.</p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAY_SHDKEnM3hBeQM6llF0m47nE-xmNVCMLY9Zcw8SgDxYuLxH18KM3NV2PCv0n3Lat7Cl7zD7FPh78tEmea9vewnohCtMY5JSvXyXWLuWJ95CY7K9oE6Q9dDT0D1lrPXM6dcjtvNBASJc-s_jiMuMqRMT70FP4X-GTjduSiYCyuzjhifgOQ/s1220/Blue%20Tit%202-tr.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1180" data-original-width="1220" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAY_SHDKEnM3hBeQM6llF0m47nE-xmNVCMLY9Zcw8SgDxYuLxH18KM3NV2PCv0n3Lat7Cl7zD7FPh78tEmea9vewnohCtMY5JSvXyXWLuWJ95CY7K9oE6Q9dDT0D1lrPXM6dcjtvNBASJc-s_jiMuMqRMT70FP4X-GTjduSiYCyuzjhifgOQ/w165-h160/Blue%20Tit%202-tr.png" width="165" /></a></div>An genau dieser heiligen Ordnung hatte ich mich einst versündigt und für einige Tage nicht für den pünktlichen beknackten Walnuss-Proviant für die Truppe gesorgt. Als ich dann auch noch unvorsichtigerweise vom <i>Commandante</i> ungetarnt in der Nähe des vereinbarten Übergabepunkts erwischt wurde, flog er todesmutig nah heran, positionierte sich exakt oberhalb des leeren Nuss-Körbchen, blickte genau 3-mal demonstrativ in den unversorgten Proviantkorb, gefolgt jeweils von einem lauten Protest-Pieps und entfleuchte. Das ist noch einmal glimpflich abgegangen. Hochroten Kopfes hatte ich umgehend für Nachschub gesorgt.<p></p>Die Entdeckung der energiereichen Winternahrungsquelle macht schnell Schule bei den verspielten <b>Blaumeisen</b>, die kleiner und weniger gut organisiert, laut schwätzend, erst einmal aushandeln müssen, wird denn nun den Vortritt genießen soll. Sogar das Standort-<b>Rotkehlchen</b>, das sich sonst nur für meine bodennahen Aktivitäten interessiert, lässt sich animieren, von dieser nach Rotkehlen-Tradition eher exotischen Kost zu naschen. Na ja, wenn man die Auswahl hat, geht man eben einmal zum Edel-Italiener, lässt sich nach Thai-Art den Gaumen kitzeln oder wagt einen Ausfall in die Experimental-Cuisine.<p></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiszjiJ6EF-58GWG-Iav9tlejoZ8yn17rzki24w3eoT1IVWVrYEwBS1PTcV7WnIZna0vLc4tAFAFRfnAaEsPbyvYaWSeTwIPhPsZxGD71RD5ZkZ-MEHw0KV7zhtHvq4nG5D81twKzwdVCDGcRL4cw7_iTXVoYJ-EcZTIU5rEy7z7QCQKRw-lA/s879/robin%20painting-tr.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="879" data-original-width="602" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiszjiJ6EF-58GWG-Iav9tlejoZ8yn17rzki24w3eoT1IVWVrYEwBS1PTcV7WnIZna0vLc4tAFAFRfnAaEsPbyvYaWSeTwIPhPsZxGD71RD5ZkZ-MEHw0KV7zhtHvq4nG5D81twKzwdVCDGcRL4cw7_iTXVoYJ-EcZTIU5rEy7z7QCQKRw-lA/w125-h182/robin%20painting-tr.png" width="125" /></a></div>Das Standort-<b>Rotkehlchen</b> ist ohnehin ein ganz spezieller Charakter. Wenn ich Büsche von innenbetrachte oder in dem Bäumen herumkraxle, hat es nur einen verächtlichen Pieps für mich übrig. Aber wehe, wenn ich den bodennahen Berserker gebe. Jegliche Erdarbeiten bringt es sofort auf den Plan, einen Weg harken ist schon ganz gut, ein Bäumchen pflanzen noch besser. Der Hit aber ist das winterliche Umsetzen des Komposthaufens. Das ist ein wahres Fest, das offenbar schon das ganze Jahr über erwartet wird. Welche Urinstinkte da wohl angesprochen werden? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Vielleicht setzt es mich ja mit einem verspäteten Nachkommen eines Auerochsen oder anderer urzeitlicher Riesen-Rindsviecher gleich, verheißungsvoll insektenumschwirrt. Hmmm, sehr schmeichelhaft. Während ich heftig die Schaufel oder Forke schwinge, begibt sich da so ein kecker Winzling mitten ins Getümmel. „<i>Mädel, wie soll ich denn da arbeiten, wenn du immer zwischen meinen Gummistiefeln herumhüpfst</i>?“ Ich muss gestehen, dass die Geschlechtsvermutung reine Spekulation war – es schien mir halt so. Da baut es sich nur vor mir auf und fixiert mich mit einem Blick der irgendetwas zwischen Selbstbewusstsein und Renitenz transportiert. Bestenfalls ernte ich einen spöttischen Zug um den Schnabel. Dem Fotografieren aber entzieht es sich bei aller unvermeidbaren, kurzfristigen Nähe mit einem bedeutungsvollen Hinweis auf die strafbewehrte DSGVO und entfleucht. Kein Wunder, dass ich es nicht bis zur Herrlichkeit eines führungsstarken Managers eines DAX-Unternehmens gebracht habe, wenn ich mich bereits von so einem kleinen Piepmatz vorführen lasse.<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtR42s-COQt9JMPqxQkH3UzqSD4pcXeu2Uw-u79L0e9-40JgLurXpC0z3OMrJ7RB4Bi5X-UkHsTImZiV5C9-EQG9K4zImfilbiQStjuef2ARoYaD6ASLd_tOxo3VLtkXuTfdc-hBgd8uv4niYGSjneMxc8fQQ6EdHOsNDCoFGFzVKvjEY8oQ/s1276/Amsel-tr.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1167" data-original-width="1276" height="137" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtR42s-COQt9JMPqxQkH3UzqSD4pcXeu2Uw-u79L0e9-40JgLurXpC0z3OMrJ7RB4Bi5X-UkHsTImZiV5C9-EQG9K4zImfilbiQStjuef2ARoYaD6ASLd_tOxo3VLtkXuTfdc-hBgd8uv4niYGSjneMxc8fQQ6EdHOsNDCoFGFzVKvjEY8oQ/w150-h137/Amsel-tr.png" width="150" /></a></div>Eigentlich komme ich erst bei tropischem Wetter so langsam auf eine optimale Betriebstemperatur. Nach einem kalten und dunklen Winter aber, verleiten mich bereits wenige verhaltene Sonnenstrahlen zu allerlei waghalsigen Außeneinsätzen bei deutlich unterkühlten Bedingungen. Neben der Hypothermie drohen aber noch ganz andere Gefahren. Mit den ersten zarten Frühlingsboten sind die Amselhähnchen völlig durch den Wind. Kleine, schwarzgefiederte und entsetzlich aufgeregte Flugungeheuer, die Kollateralschäden billigend in Kauf nehmen, wenn sie einander bei erbitterten Revierkämpfen durch die Botanik scheuchen. Wer da nicht aufpasst und sich fahrlässig im Lichtraumprofil der gängigen Einflugschneisen aufhält, muss schon einmal mit einer Flügel-Watschen eines durchgeknallten Flugdrachen rechnen. Der nervenaufreibende Schock eines Near Miss des <b>Schwarzdrossel</b>-Raufbolds ist schon fast Routine. Gladiatorenkämpfe im Hintergarten, fast so spannend wie das Gerangel um den CDU-Parteivorsitz. Ach, ist das aufregend!<p></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQSXnm7s4vSiPboVvL4P39wBWXb0vCxjmL1YKKfqBA_AUF8w4iNCm3JyTmR0nijGbf1GsP4AROyZDZwWEwF3S7fDeqTL7CABSxRMhG1XxrtXIXjQjV2JJ3HXd-bufnYvf2uXDQSZ6-xkwN6zl6OivIhl1qwHIhl5it-uIGOQjMqQeTX4v_7w/s500/M%C3%B6nchsgrasm%C3%BCcke_17366589-origpic-b86e0d-tr.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="500" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQSXnm7s4vSiPboVvL4P39wBWXb0vCxjmL1YKKfqBA_AUF8w4iNCm3JyTmR0nijGbf1GsP4AROyZDZwWEwF3S7fDeqTL7CABSxRMhG1XxrtXIXjQjV2JJ3HXd-bufnYvf2uXDQSZ6-xkwN6zl6OivIhl1qwHIhl5it-uIGOQjMqQeTX4v_7w/w200-h166/M%C3%B6nchsgrasm%C3%BCcke_17366589-origpic-b86e0d-tr.png" width="200" /></a></div>Die Schlachten sind geschlagen, die Reviere verteilt, nach Nestbau und Eiablage geht es mit den Brutpflichten ein wenig beschaulicher zu, nur um unvermittelt ungebührliche Hektik umzuschlagen. Erst konnte ich immer nur den Kondensstreifen der rasanten Flugbahn eines Projektils ausmachen, einmal von rechts nach links, dann wieder umgekehrt. Nur wer zu nah an einer Rallye-Strecke steht, muss ähnlich schnell der Wendehals machen. Erst die Zeitlupe stellt den Täter bloß: eine <b>Mönchsgrasmücke</b> im Fütterstress. Laut Webseite des BUND liebt die Mönchsgrasmücke nicht so sehr das Gras, sondern dichtes „Gestrüpp“. Gut, davon haben wir reichlich, und zwar keineswegs aus Fahrlässigkeit, sondern durchaus mit mutwilligem Vorsatz: <i>bed & breakfast</i> für Piepmätze. Und wenn die Terrassen-Flugschneise durch völlig nutzloses und zudem flugunfähiges Zweibeinervolk blockiert ist, wird die Fütterflugbahn halsbrecherisch durch ebendieses Gestrüpp gelegt. Bei diesen elterlichen Kamikazeaktionen wird einem bereits vom Zusehen schwindelig. Was für ein Elternstress, vielleicht nicht der rechte Anblick für junge Freier, die mit dem Gedanken spielen sich einem Weib antrauen zu lassen und eine Familie mit zwei, immer nur lächelnden, kleinen Kindlein zu gründen. Man könnte schließlich ins Grübeln geraten.</span><div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUx7zCo9WSJntoKzjb_UiQnaQKbF0J0njOEA8k55X4HV6FaTMQPHDovkk6-HmFkzg-YqzVLe67oH8QYdhmvIQixaXEV0SI-oJkog5Ek-86j874RWdlreXsR2cMOT3R2lhTjEr4iE3F1QZ715ZCHiQjHSE2OnZrOlFnxrVxQTP_4hiBIUgPoA/s668/Jay%202-tr.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="668" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUx7zCo9WSJntoKzjb_UiQnaQKbF0J0njOEA8k55X4HV6FaTMQPHDovkk6-HmFkzg-YqzVLe67oH8QYdhmvIQixaXEV0SI-oJkog5Ek-86j874RWdlreXsR2cMOT3R2lhTjEr4iE3F1QZ715ZCHiQjHSE2OnZrOlFnxrVxQTP_4hiBIUgPoA/w186-h152/Jay%202-tr.png" width="186" /></a></div>Nicht alle gefiederten Dinosauriernachkommen sind so standrottreu. Das sind die Wintergäste auf der geschäftigen Durchreise: <b>Schwanzmeisen</b>, die lautstark in einer großen, geschwätzigen Gruppe im winterkahlen Schlehdorn ihre Reiseabenteuer untereinander austauschen, <b>Goldhähnchen</b>, mit ihrem bunten Irokesenschopf machen hier gelegentlich Rast auf Ihrer Springprozession von Fichtenwald zu Fichtenwald, ebendort hatte sich einmal auch eine Rotte <b>Bluthänflinge</b> eingefunden, die laut NABU „<i>ganz nach Finkenart wellenförmig über uns dahinfliegen</i>“ (ach so), keine Wintergäste, eher Landflüchtlinge, die in unseren systematisch ausgeräumten Fluren nicht mehr leben können. Auch ein <b>Zaunkönig</b>pärchen auf der Suche nach einem kleinen Königreich zieht kleine Marktnischen in den Städten den verödeten landwirtschaftlichen Nutzflächen vor. Ganzjahres Marodeure kommen überall zurecht: <b>Eichelhäher</b>, <b>Elstern</b> und hie und da auch Krähenvolk ziehen plündernd durch die Vorgärten und dann und wann ein weißer Elefant … (nein, das gehört nicht hierher) … Die Krone der Souveränität aber ist der (kleine) <b>Buntspecht</b>, selbstbewusster und unerschrockener Vertreter der werktätigen Massen, fleißig und arbeitsam, aber ohne Sinn für verspielen Firlefanz.<p></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0EG8l8W2ayRHdU0LWk7dnidJHDWZaqQNibRQdzWrbUG2N0viHPQrj2PMHA6bYtgxB_5AUMdZZmizinnMGq0lK-_VqKdTGAZGA0pfw-6CtQPRpmF8PV2a6YUN0f0uzTuR5gQBV-iH1fgq7m4s7kgMa1-7wOGRCPUZNWcm5Hcn-r3PTZm-iMw/s894/Pyrrhula_pyrrhula_male-tr.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="647" data-original-width="894" height="129" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0EG8l8W2ayRHdU0LWk7dnidJHDWZaqQNibRQdzWrbUG2N0viHPQrj2PMHA6bYtgxB_5AUMdZZmizinnMGq0lK-_VqKdTGAZGA0pfw-6CtQPRpmF8PV2a6YUN0f0uzTuR5gQBV-iH1fgq7m4s7kgMa1-7wOGRCPUZNWcm5Hcn-r3PTZm-iMw/w178-h129/Pyrrhula_pyrrhula_male-tr.png" width="178" /></a></div>Einen Paradiesvogel haben wir auch. Er ist nicht ganz so standorttreu. Oder er hat einfach ein größeres Stammrevier für seine Eskapaden. Man lässt sich da nicht in die Karten schauen. Als echter Poser versteht es unser Nachbarschafts-<b>Dompfaff</b>, sich überraschend und medienwirksam immer in Sichthöhe in Szene zu setzen. Da strahlt der purpurne Bauch in der Abendsonne, dass den Bystanders der Unterkiefer absackt – baah ey! So einen Schönling darf man natürlich keinen Augenblick aus den Augen lassen. So ist denn auch immer sein unscheinbares, angetrautes Eheweib nie weit. Von der überirdischen Schönheit dieses Gartenjuwels geblendet, entdeckt es nur das trainierte Auge in Near-Field-Entfernung im Geäst. Wir haben es hier nämlich mit einem älteren Ehepaar zu tun, das auf seiner Tournee durch die Gemeinde seit Jahren professionell seine Show abzieht.<p></p>
<p>Zu den eher schwermütigen Szenen im großen Chor der Gefiederten zählt das <b>Tauben</b>drama, dass sogar in mehreren Wiederholungen gespielt wurde. Die Stadttaube als solche (als was auch sonst?) stammt vermutlich hauptsächlich von verwilderten Haus- und Brieftauben ab, die ihrerseits aus der Felsentaube gezüchtet wurden. Aha, ob sie sich damals auch schon so ungeschickt angestellt hatten? Oder sind die Tollpatsche der Lüfte eher Ergebnis eines dekadenten zivilisatorischen Niedergangs? Ich muss es ja zugeben: Nistplätze sind knapp. Die Wohnraumnot in Stadt und Land ist endemisch und trifft alle. Aber ist das Grund genug seine Brut in ungesicherte, nicht handwerksgerechte Nester zu verfügen? Etwa im Bambushain, wo der nächste Sturm das Gelege samt Schneller Brüter regelrecht herauskatapultiert? Da lag der einst so hoffnungsvolle Nachwuchs nun im Sonnenlicht nach dem Gewittersturm: nackt und leblos. Mangelnde Sorgfaltspflicht beim Hausbau hat schon so manches junge Leben allzu frühzeitig beendet 😞</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUJMyE8H-SVNPj_aceSNfDGiEsPb7NHNQHzcTOUsEvgTOEqakeajbpAg2RzswamVVolWWyhhJiXhx6HqoP7AKzkpnpMTsWuFeIX9kgq7w0A7c4FBlIhAWA8NjO6bcktSgylCQ7Q4h6vzXRMs2KqGnwSXrbO9yLVvA9AQt_RoefUZPCqzTSDw/s374/RabenkraeheGr-tr.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="257" data-original-width="374" height="119" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUJMyE8H-SVNPj_aceSNfDGiEsPb7NHNQHzcTOUsEvgTOEqakeajbpAg2RzswamVVolWWyhhJiXhx6HqoP7AKzkpnpMTsWuFeIX9kgq7w0A7c4FBlIhAWA8NjO6bcktSgylCQ7Q4h6vzXRMs2KqGnwSXrbO9yLVvA9AQt_RoefUZPCqzTSDw/w172-h119/RabenkraeheGr-tr.png" width="172" /></a></div>Ein Early Encounter beim sonntagmorgendlichen Joggen vor Tau und Tag hat mich dem Schwarzwild der Lüfte nähergebracht – oder auch nicht. <b>Saatkrähen</b> begrüßen mich allsonntäglich lässig, abfällig mit ihrem Working Song: „<i>Wir plündern den Müll bis keiner mehr wüll. Unser Häuptling heißt schwarze Joppe. …</i> (zwischendurch konnte ich wegen Dampfertutens nichts verstehen) <i>… gibt es mächtig Kloppe</i>.“ vermeinte ich beim Näherkommen aus ihrem Sprechgesang herauszuhören – auf Kräholisch natürlich. Nur stehenbleiben darf ich nicht. Dann werde ich abschätzig von oben bis unten gemustert: „<i>Was willst Du denn hier, Du Lachnummer? Verp*** Dich mal ganz schnell. Sonst gibt‘s was zwischen die Hörner!</i>“<p></p>
<p>Oh, oh, bin ich nach zwei Jahren „Home-Office“ der rauen Wirklichkeit da draußen etwa nicht mehr gewachsen? Aufgeben aber ist keine Option. Trotzig beginne ich mein persönliches Resozialisierungsprogramm 😊</p>
<p>Hello world, here I come.</p> </span>
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-24346694931816332942021-09-18T13:28:00.000+02:002021-09-18T13:28:08.935+02:00Quo vadis Europe? - Rethinking the old continent<h1><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ1VqrGUZairgOtjCRpf2QWXkoC4tmYhzPJYoeyUp3nQI5UlCGhgTzVg5Qsi2D0CciHlDlaLlKAxsBxnGdiPkcDrI7XxCicsbKgR1HLOiFvILEdo2Do2TZ3bbrueQRNewDLON5og/s1084/Europe+Quo+vadis.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Quo vadis Europe - retinking the old continent" border="0" data-original-height="718" data-original-width="1084" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ1VqrGUZairgOtjCRpf2QWXkoC4tmYhzPJYoeyUp3nQI5UlCGhgTzVg5Qsi2D0CciHlDlaLlKAxsBxnGdiPkcDrI7XxCicsbKgR1HLOiFvILEdo2Do2TZ3bbrueQRNewDLON5og/w640-h424/Europe+Quo+vadis.png" title="Quo vadis Europe - retinking the old continent" width="640" /></a></div></h1><h1><span style="font-family: verdana; font-weight: normal;">1. What Europe means (to us) </span></h1>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">„<a href="https://www.suhrkamp.de/buch/hans-magnus-enzensberger-ach-europa-t-9783518381908">Ach Europa</a>!“ (<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/300482.Europe_Europe">Europe, Europe</a>: Forays into a Continent) is the title of a book by Hans Magnus Enzensberger, which he wrote about half a century after the end of the last huge catastrophe of European civilisation. His diagnosis of the "paradox Europe" reads: "<i>It is the irregularity, the confusion that makes Europe strong. The unity of the continent, as it is understood in the logic of the corporations, the political parties, the bureaucracies, namely as a project of homogenisation, proves to be a chimera. Europe is unthinkable as a ‘bloc’."</i></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This was his indulgent insight into the inner life of Europeans. In a fictional interview with the equally fictional US ambassador in Bonn, whom he calls just Murphy, he has the first-person narrator, in the role of an American ex-GI and journalist, projected 19 years into the future, paint a less friendly picture from the outside perspective: "<i>The European Community? Forget it, Murphy! You act as if we were dealing with a world empire. You know as well as I do that the European Community is a henhouse, a tangle of ever-shrinking states - if what the Europeans have set up for themselves can be called states at all.</i>" </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Oh, you pitiful Europe! one might exclaim, if only a little of it were true. But what is Europe really? And, what should it be like? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Europe (Greek Εὐρώπη), is geographically only a subcontinent, of the continent of Eurasia. This peninsula, which occupies about one-fifth of the Eurasian landmass, is generally agreed to stretch from Norway's Kinnarodden in the north to Spain's Punta de Tarifa in the south, from Portugal's Cabo da Roca in the west to the Urals in the east. Europe is not clearly demarcated from its neighbour Asia and was thus open to all kinds of migrations. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">According to a well-known quote of <a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard-Henri_L%C3%A9vy">Bernard-Henri Lévy</a>, Europe is "<i>not a place, but an idea</i>". in this essay we will also be guided by this idea - by the historical, cultural, political and idealistic aspects. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But I do not intend to recount history here, nor to give an overview of the cultural currents or the political movements during the troubled centuries that Europe's peoples have lived through ever since. It is important for us to highlight what makes Europe unique, a feature that distinguishes us fundamentally from the rest of the world, that we can be proud of, that we should be prepared to defend if necessary. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We will be talking about the European values that are so often referred to, used and abused. But what are these ideas and values? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Europe is often equated with the "Christian Occident" - in clear distinction to the (Muslim) Orient. So, is Christianity this particular, distinguishing characteristic? My answer is a clear "no". It is true that Christianity only became a world religion in the wake of the rise of European states as world powers. However, as is well known, it has its roots and its early spread in a completely different cultural environment in the Middle East. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">From a minority originally persecuted for its faith, Christianity, after displacing the then dominant Indo-European <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mithraism">Mithras</a> cult and eradicating it completely, itself developed into an intolerant power factor. The sad highlights of this are the burning of witches (heretics) and the extermination of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catharism">Cathars</a> in southern France by Pope Innocent III. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">After the catastrophe of the Black Plague in the 14th century had reduced the population of the time by about a third and, as a result, temporarily weakened the central authorities, city states flourished between northern Italy and Flanders, trade and the arts prospered, and a free space for all kinds of new ideas was created. This eventually led to a period that was generally perceived as a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance">Renaissance</a> (rebirth). </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">At that time, the educational movement of humanism first emerged in elite academic circles, which propagated a revival of ancient scholarship according to the principle <i>ad fontes </i>("to the sources"). This was the tender beginning of a development that would eventually lead to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlightenment">Enlightenment</a> movement, with which we also commonly equate the emergence of modern Europe. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But before that - yes, that much history must be told - Central Europe had to survive another catastrophe, which this time cost the lives of about half its population. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The humanists out of their study of ancient authors and their generally freer thinking developed a critical attitude towards the present and especially towards the power of the church. These philosophical currents, with thinkers such as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erasmus">Erasmus</a> of Rotterdam and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulrich_von_Hutten">Ulrich von Hutten</a>, ultimately led to Martin Luther and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reformation">Reformation</a>. Their resounding success was made possible by the simultaneous emergence of printing as a medium for the dissemination of information. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The counter-reactions were not long in coming. They finally culminated in the Thirty Years' War. In those fateful 30 years between the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defenestrations_of_Prague">Defenestration of Prague</a> and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_of_Westphalia">Peace of Westphalia</a>, Central Europe was largely devastated. The Peace of Westphalia only was made possible by the total exhaustion of resources of both parties and general war weariness. The “Westphalian order,” established by this compromise between all parties involved, though by no means consistently peaceful, lasted about 200 years until the Napoleonic Wars. Its basic principles still have an impact today in the Charter of the United Nations. </span></p>
<p><a name="_Hlk73874776"><span style="font-family: verdana;">With the advent of Enlightenment thoughts, which put rationality in the place of the prescribed doctrine of faith, the "Christian Occident" was finally also no longer the leitmotif of philosophical considerations. </span></a></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Immanuel <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immanuel_Kant">Kant</a> once characterized this philosophical trend as the "
<i>Enlightenment is man's emergence from his self-imposed nonage</i>." - well, obviously not yet for all mankind. For us however, it is the root of modern Europe. What else distinguishes Europe - positively - from the rest of humanity? While elsewhere philosophy and religion cannot be kept apart or people hope for a "<i>benevolent king</i>" (can there be a greater contradiction?), here, more than 300 years ago, courageous people already demanded the separation of church and state, civil liberties and freedom of thought in the first place. Even though they were permanently threatened by a kind of lethal “fatwa“, instead of believing in authorities, they preferred to "have the courage to use their own understanding" according to a quote by Kant. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Politically, the reception of these principles was articulated in the broad current of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberalism">liberalism</a>. </span></p>
<p><a name="_Hlk73876604"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Initially, it was about the struggle for civil liberties and against the traditional authorities that derived their legitimacy from some God-given, mythical primordial state. </span></a></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Inseparably linked to the ideas of the Enlightenment, these original liberals took it for granted that the moral foundations of human coexistence should also be rationally derived from the requirements of a functioning polity. This placed them in stark contrast to the conservative traditionalists. For those, this morality could only have been religiously motivated and directly transferred from their respective gods to us earthworms. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The genie was out of the bottle. The new ideas spread through Europe like wildfire. "Liberty, Equality, Fraternity" was one of the most famous slogans of the French Revolution of 1789. <a href="https://www.elysee.fr/la-presidence/liberte-egalite-fraternite">Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité</a>" is still the motto of the Fifth French Republic today. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Which catapults us right to the present. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights are the values on which the European Union is founded. They are enshrined in the Treaty on European Union and have been strengthened by the Charter of Fundamental Rights. Countries wishing to join the EU must respect human rights. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Article #1 of the German Basic Law starts with the beautiful sentence: "<i>Human dignity is inviolable. It is the duty of all state authorities to respect and protect it”</i>. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">These ideas have long since gained a foothold beyond Europe. The <a href="https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/declaration-transcript">Declaration of Independence</a> of the United States of America, for example, states that <i>"All men are created equal", </i>although millions of slaves were deliberately left out. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Today, then, these European values on which our everyday civil liberties are based have become so self-evident to us that it is boring to hear about them. Actually, it would be a good sign if politics became boring - if this Europe of civil liberties were not threatened. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Threats, from within and without, have always existed. The more serious ones are to be found within ourselves: political apathy, historical ignorance, tolerance of the intolerant, lack of appreciation of the "self-evident" civil liberties that make Europe our Europe. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Preserving and further developing this unique core of European philosophy should be worth our resolute commitment. </span></p>
<h1><span style="font-family: verdana; font-weight: normal;">2. Why we need Europe </span></h1>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It obviously took the last great catastrophe of European civilisation, mentioned at the beginning of this article, to provide the impetus for the founding of a community that we know today as the "European Union". The Second World War, which on careful analysis can also be understood as simply a continuation of the First World War, not only left the defeated Germans feeling insecure. A willingness to rethink spread throughout Europe, the perceived threat from the communist bloc of the Warsaw Pact and also the hidden desire to effectively shackle a possibly resurgent Germany through tight organisational integration had briefly opened the window for the founding of the Coal and Steel Community, the European Economic Community and finally the European Union. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, since the last joint feat, the introduction of the euro in January 1999 for electronic bookings and three years later - on January 1, 2002 as cash, the momentum has noticeably slackened. The introduction of the euro in particular has revealed structural weaknesses that could still lead to an ultimate test of the whole community. With Brexit, the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) and the European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC or Euratom) on January 31, 2020, the UK became the first country to formally leave the EU after 47 years. In general, a sense of gloom is spreading. Long articulated by retro politicians on the right of the political spectrum, more and more disappointed citizens of today's EU countries see this same European "Union" as a failed political experiment. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Yet there would be sufficient tasks for a strong Europe, whose path should not be an egomaniacal one, but a self-confident one, as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egon_Bahr">Egon Bahr</a>, the architect of the German policy of détente, once formulated - albeit with Germany in mind. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">At the moment, we Europeans are mainly preoccupied with the effects of the CoVid 19 pandemic. However, during this forced navel-gazing, we are dimly aware that something is changing out there. We already suspect that when the fog lifts and we open our eyes again, we will find ourselves in a significantly changed world. </span></p>
<p><a name="_Hlk75106478"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Although the balance may have shifted, most of the challenges we will then face are not new at all. We have known them for a long time and have so far successfully ignored them or tackled them half-heartedly. Now these "old companions" are thrusting themselves into a view with force. The Earth is heading straight for a catastrophe that could lead to the extinction of humanity, or at least the collapse of what we call civilisation, but perhaps also the extinction of much of the Earth's entire biome - truly a crisis situation.</span></a></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">There shall be talk of mass extinction, climate change, resource consumption, environmental devastation, overpopulation, the growing economic inequality, growing military tensions in the course of the reordering of the world, with a high probability of a new "cold war" or even real hot war. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Since there is meanwhile sufficient evidence that the party will eventually come to an end, I am arbitrarily limiting myself here to just these seven indicators of impending disaster. A more intensive examination of each of these major challenges is of course necessary and shall follow. But here is only the space for a brief characterisation of just the seven of them. </span></p>
<h2><span style="font-family: verdana;">The 6th mass extinction </span></h2>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Palaeontologists have found evidence that there have been (at least) five mass extinctions in the course of Earth's history, each of which wiped out large parts of all life on this planet. At the end of each geological age, a large part of all species was lost. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Here are the numbers: </span></p>
<p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">In the Ordovician, 444 million years ago, 86%, </span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">In the Devonian, 375 million years ago, 75%, </span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">In the Permian, 251 million years ago, 96%, </span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">In the Triassic, 200 million years ago, 80%, and </span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">In the Cretaceous period, 66 million years ago, 76% - the dinosaurs included. </span></li></ol><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The sixth major species extinction, but this time caused by humans, is already in full swing. According to the UN's <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/global-environment-outlook-6">Global Environment Outlook 6</a>, the population of vertebrates has declined by about 60% since 1970. Currently, between 25 and 42 % of invertebrates, such as insects, are threatened with extinction. The disappearance of insects poses a particular threat to food production. However, this is not the only threat directly affecting the human food supply: one third of the planet's land area now falls into the category of "degraded soils" in the last 50 years, 40% of the world's wetlands have disappeared. Warming and overfishing threaten the livelihoods of over three billion people who depend on fish as their main source of food. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Presumably, then, even the rather unpleasant prospect of a planet whose biomass consists mainly of humans living on a gigantic rubbish dump on a largely devastated planet is not pessimistic enough. Rather, we ourselves could be severely affected if we continue ignoring the fact that we humans, too, can only survive as part of a functioning ecosystem. </span></p>
<h2><span style="font-family: verdana;">Climate change </span></h2>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Much has already been written on this main threat to humanity. It remains at the top of our list of major concerns. It will therefore only be briefly dealt with here. Instead, we would like to refer to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">IPCC</a>), a United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Even paleo-politicians like Donald Trump had finally been unable to deny - albeit without consequences - that climate change is happening right before our eyes. This does not mean, however, that this fairly recent realisation has spurred any meaningful action against its inexorable advance. On the contrary, its authorities championed outdated traditional energy-generating technologies while denouncing renewable energy production as ineffective and even dangerous. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It is true that the current administration of Joe Biden is showing a change in its public statements. But it remains to be seen whether this is perhaps just another example of the double standards that have been typical of US policy so far. In any case, it remains to be feared that the growing rivalry between the world powers USA and China will prevent serious corrections to our influence on the global climate. </span></p>
<h2><span style="font-family: verdana;">Resource consumption </span></h2>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The consumption of resources is increasing in parallel to population growth and exponentially with the much-<a name="_Hlk75109131">vaunted </a>prosperity. It is not only the often-mentioned "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_element">rare earths</a>" that could become scarce. Agricultural land cannot be increased at will either. A "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution">green revolution</a>" can probably only be repeated once or twice. Soils are degrading, exhausted. Water for agriculture and human consumption is becoming a scarce commodity. This is true even for something as common as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-sand-shortage-could-cause-damaging-effects-2018-12?r=DE&IR=T">sand</a> for making concrete. People don't like to admit it. But many of these resources are finite. They cannot be reproduced. Technical progress can still push the limits a little, as can be seen in the example of the "<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-peak-oil-era-is-suddenly-upon-us/">peak oil</a>" theory. But that does not change the fundamental problem of the finite nature of resources. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Yet it seems that we have never been further away from global management of scarce resources as a prerequisite for our common survival. Rather, resource scarcity seems to be becoming a major source of geopolitical risk and resulting conflict. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">A good <a href="https://www.overshootday.org/newsroom/past-earth-overshoot-days/">illustration</a> is provided by the so-called "<a href="https://www.footprintnetwork.org/our-work/earth-overshoot-day/">Earth Overshoot Day</a>." It marks the day when humanity has consumed as many resources as can be used sustainably per year. This day tends to come earlier each year as the world population grows and we tend to consume more resources per capita each year. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Only in 2020 did it appear later than in the previous year, namely on 2020-08-22. It is easy to see that the restrictions in the course of the measures to combat the COVID 19 pandemic are responsible for this extraordinary effect. This means that we can by no means give the all-clear signal. On the contrary, if you look at a graphic representation of the annual positioning of <i>Earth Overshoot Day </i>over the last 50 years, you could easily confuse it with a <i>burn-down diagram </i>as used in modern agile project management. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a name="_Hlk75109281">The crucial difference is that we are not processing a </a><a href="https://www.agilealliance.org/glossary/backlog/#q=~(infinite~false~filters~(postType~(~'page~'post~'aa_book~'aa_event_session~'aa_experience_report~'aa_glossary~'aa_research_paper~'aa_video)~tags~(~'backlog))~searchTerm~'~sort~false~sortDirection~'asc~page~1)"><i>product backlog</i></a> <i></i>here, but burning the entire planet down to zero. In order not to allow this to happen, it seems necessary now more than ever to take a globally coordinated action. After all, the very survival of humanity, along with all higher life on this planet, is at stake. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Indeed, if the entire world population consumed at the level of the average US citizen, Sustainable Resource Consumption Day would already be in February. But the rest of the world, and especially the developing part, is aiming in just that direction. And you can't even blame them for that! Why and with what right should one want to deprive them of what others have been able to enjoy for years? In China alone, two billion stamping feet had already set out before the turn of the third millennium to take the step towards a better life with diligence, energy and determination. They have every right to do so. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">And yet, there will not be enough for all of us. </span></p>
<h2><span style="font-family: verdana;">Growth economics </span></h2>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It is a non-contested dogma among members of the ruling classes in all countries that the economy must grow - the more the better. How long can this go on? Indefinitely? Perhaps we should remind the leading schools of economists that we ultimately live on a finite planet. If we combine this realisation with the prospect of population growth eventually coming to a <a href="https://www.livescience.com/65732-world-population-will-stop-growing.html">halt</a>, only an increase in productivity should remain to drive economic growth. Having grown up in an era when infinitely progressive "progress" was our basic assumption for all further considerations, few academics so far consider a zero-growth economy desirable or even possible. However, the prospect of a steady-state economy seems only a logical consequence if we only were serious about the goal of sustainable human life on Earth. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I think it is time to demand new sustainable economic models from science. </span></p>
<h2><span style="font-family: verdana;">Overpopulation </span></h2>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/">world population</a> had just passed the 7.9 billion mark in April 2021. Until the time of Napoleon, there were less than one billion people on earth at any one time. Since the Second World War, the world's population has grown by one billion people every 12-15 years. Our population today is more than double what it was in 1970, and the world's population is currently growing by more than 80 million per year.<a name="_Hlk73907169">With a birth rate more than double the death rate, it will most likely continue to increase for the rest of this century unless we do something. The growth rate is expected to level off within a few generations, leading to a saturation of the total global population at around 10 billion people by 2050. </a></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Considering the current state of technology, our demands for a decent standard of living and even just our physical needs, it seems doubtful that humanity can maintain a long-term sustainable existence at this figure. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">There are probably already too many of us on this planet. </span></p>
<h2><span style="font-family: verdana;">Economic inequality </span></h2>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Globally, the economic inequality of humanity is growing. If it is not limited - at least to some degree - it will eventually destroy any social order. Historical observation teaches us that only catastrophic events such as wars, epidemics or revolutions have had the capacity to reduce inequality again. In "quiet" times like the current century of US world hegemony, the wealth of economically acting individuals drifts apart again. In fact, the common-folk wisdom that "the rich keep getting richer" finds its confirmation in the latest wealth statistics of the American "Studies,“atrend that has proved vital even in the midst of the Corona crisis. According to these statistics, the world's 2,365 billionaires increased their fortunes by 54 per cent, or about four trillion dollars, between 18 March 2020 and 18 March 2021. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">According to the <i>World Economic Forum</i>'s "<a href="https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2021">Global Risks Report 2021</a>", the growing digital divide and the varying degrees of technology use are increasingly a cause for concern. According to this report, the current COVID-19 pandemic has indeed accelerated the fourth industrial revolution and driven the digitalisation of human interaction, e-commerce, online education and teleworking. These changes promise enormous benefits. The possibility of teleworking and the rapid development of vaccines are often cited as examples. But they also carry the risk of exacerbating inequalities and creating them in the first place. Digital inequality" is seen as a critical short-term threat. This is because a growing digital divide can exacerbate already existing social fissures. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In the US, several "tribes" already live side-by-side without much contact. Occasionally, they fight each other. This trend is more likely to increase. It leads to isolationist tendencies. The globalisation of the 1990s is collapsing before our eyes. It was never to be confused with fair world trade. Rather, it was used as an instrument of domination to enforce hegemonic aspirations. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nevertheless, the global exchange of goods, services and ideas has led to interdependence and thus created bonds. Currently, what should be a world community, is disintegrating into increasingly authoritarian power blocs and spheres of interest at a time when collective action might still avert regional and global catastrophes. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">That hope is now gone. </span></p>
<h2><span style="font-family: verdana;">Potential for conflict </span></h2>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">As was to be expected, evidence is mounting that resource scarcity, like overpopulation, leads to competition and the potential for conflict. According to the World Economic Forum's <a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2019.pdf">Global Risks Report 2019</a>, geopolitical risks are on the rise. In its foreword, it asks explicitly and rhetorically: "<i>Is the world sleepwalking into a crisis? Global risks are intensifying, but the collective will to address them seems to be lacking. Instead, the fronts are hardening. The world's transition into a new phase of highly state-centric politics, noted in last year's Global Risks Report, continued in 2018. The idea of ‘taking back control’ - whether domestically from political rivals or externally from multilateral or supranational organisations - resonates in many countries and on many issues. The energy now spent on consolidating or regaining national control risks weakening collective responses to new global challenges. We are drifting deeper and deeper into global problems that will be difficult to wriggle out of</i>." </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The military tensions that have grown since then in the course of the shifting world powers are now accompanied by a high probability of a new "cold war." Even if we seem to have settled in with the "nuclear threat," since Hiroshima and Nagasaki it has remained unabashedly real. It can lead, not unexpectedly but abruptly, to a catastrophe that need by no means remain localised. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But even below the threshold of military conflict, the economic damage of, for example, a decoupling of the USA from China will be considerable for the EU and here, especially for Germany. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The NATO-Russia crisis of 2014 had already inflicted heavy losses on the European economy. Should European states join the sanctions against strategically important Chinese companies, Europe would be hit much harder. Should we really allow ourselves, as European states, to execute US hegemonic policies? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Where does that leave Europe's interests? Well, we can safely consider the fragmented European political landscape, which consists to a large extent of dwarf states, as vassals of the US. Decisions made in the US are usually implemented in Europe with a <a name="_Hlk75111123">bashful </a>delay in order to maintain the appearance of autonomous decision-making. </span></p>
<p><a name="_Hlk73912728"><span style="font-family: verdana;">But is it really in Europe's interest to simply follow in American footsteps, to fight American wars in the Middle East - at least a little bit, to block Russian gas and Chinese 5G products in favour of American brands? </span></a></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We should be aware that the China-bashing, "made in USA," is rooted in a renewed great-power competition that has been developing for several years. This US policy is increasingly dividing the world into two opposing camps. What is just beginning in Europe seems to be already in full swing in other regions that tend to follow every US impulse. Australia's relations with China, for example, have been strained since 2018, as Bloomberg reports, when Canberra barred Huawei Technologies Co from building a 5G network on "national security grounds". They are truly frosty in early 2021, at the time this post is being written, after Prime Minister Scott Morrison's government called for an international enquiry into the origins of the coronavirus. As Mohamed A. El-Erian <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-29/there-s-more-than-wine-in-australia-china-trade-tension">points out</a> in a Bloomberg commentary: The cost of Australia's 2-option model will continue to rise. He also takes this as a warning to countries that are also trying it, including Canada and Singapore. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We Europeans usually tend to blindly follow every US policy. In cases where we do not, as in the case of the <a href="https://www.nord-stream.com/the-project/pipeline/">Nord Stream pipeline</a> (whether its construction was a wise decision or not), we get a pedagogical slap in the face from our "older brother" to bring us back to our senses. In this increasingly polarised world order, we are not even asked to choose sides. We are only expected to follow. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The more the US flexes its muscles and China responds accordingly, the greater the risk that dual-option countries will be forced to choose sides, especially on certain technologies. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">As with the last Cold War, there could be a clear winner in the long run. However, as with all predictions, we cannot be sure which side to back today. We can however, already safely name a clear loser - it will be the planet we live on, which means all of us. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">There is a reason why we have so far met these challenges only timidly, indecisively or even without a plan. We lack the mental, philosophical equipment for this. From the "<i>be fruitful and multiply</i>" of the <a href="https://biblehub.com/genesis/1-28.htm">Bible</a> to the "<i>the sky is the limit</i>" <i>of </i><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/aug/18/neoliberalism-the-idea-that-changed-the-world">neo-liberal</a> theorists, we have always been driven by the belief in unlimited growth. However, this expectation of "everything is getting better and better", condensed in the word "progress," is now clearly reaching its limits. Not that we could not have known. It is just that we find it infinitely difficult to accept that we are facing a turning point in a time that demands aradical rethink from us. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Unfortunately, our respective political leaderships are collectively heading in the wrong direction. It is time to mobilise countervailing forces. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We need a Europe that is taken seriously as a player on the world stage, that, primarily, works effectively to preserve living conditions and, secondly, represents its interests in a sustained manner in the concert of world powers and, in doing so, preserves the typically European liberal civil liberties - a major challenge that today's EU is, in no way, up to. </span></p>
<h1><span style="font-family: verdana; font-weight: normal;">3. Why do we need to rethink Europe </span></h1>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The European Union as it is implemented here and now is a misconstruction. It is not capable of effective action. One gets the impression that, according to the will of the actors, it is not supposed to be. </span></p>
<h2><span style="font-family: verdana;">Europe needs democratic legitimacy </span></h2>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Many complain about the lack of democratic legitimacy of the Brussels administration, which is scolded as a Eurocracy. Ten years ago, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%C3%BCrgen_Habermas">Jürgen Habermas</a>, Professor Emeritus of Philosophy at the Wolfgang Goethe University in Frankfurt am Main, gave his thoughts and wrote them down in "<i>Zur Verfassung Europas - ein Essay</i>" (On the Constitution of Europe - an Essay). According to this brief publication, the European Union is "<i>facing a choice between transnational democracy and post-democratic executive federalism</i>". </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Like Habermas, I derive from the "<i>uncontrolled political complexity growth of the world community, which systematically limits the scope of action of nation states more and more" the </i>demand to "<i>expand political capacities for action beyond national borders.</i>" </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The result would be a European state - outwardly unified and inwardly federally structured. By the way, this would not be a new idea at all, just as in this entire article, only well-known statements are combined in order to draw what we consider to be the right conclusions. Stephen Green pointed out in his booklet "<i>The </i><a href="https://www.hauspublishing.com/product/the-european-identity/"><i>European Identity</i></a><i>- Historical and Cultural Realities We Cannot Deny, </i>"that in 1946, still in the midst of the ruins of WWII, even Winston Churchill had proposed the foundation of the United States of Europe. But, he too had predecessors, such as Aurel Popovici, who had previously postulated the "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Greater_Austria">United States of Greater Austria</a>" in 1906. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Currently, according to Article 13 of the Treaty on European Union, the institutional framework comprises 7 institutions: </span></p>
<p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">the European Parliament;</span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">the European Council;</span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">the Council of the European Union (simply called ‘the Council’);</span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">the European Commission;</span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">the Court of Justice of the European Union;</span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">the European Central Bank;</span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana;">the Court of Auditors. </span></li></ol><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">First and foremost is the European Parliament. That is a good thing, of course. It suggests the sovereignty of the European peoples over their decisions. However, the de facto power lies with the Council of Ministers, i.e., the representatives of the member states. These decision-makers with exclusively national mandates, ultimately make the decisions. Each of them wants to get the most out of the big pot for "his country". Analogous to the well-known ‘<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons"><i>Tragedy of the Commons</i></a>,’ the common good, i.e., Europe, suffers as a result. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The European Parliament also reflects this strictly member-state-based order. It starts with the lack of genuine European parties. Members of the so-called European parties cannot be European citizens, but just national parties of the European member states. </span></p>
<p><a name="_Hlk73917080"><span style="font-family: verdana;">There seems to be an unspoken consensus that Europe should ultimately be a kind of civilised new edition of the Westphalian order of Europe, as it existed for nearly 200 years between the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 and the Napoleonic Wars. Here, for the first time, nation-states were mentioned as actors and their affairs were primarily regulated among themselves - even by war if necessary. In contrast, there were no regulations for foreign affairs. Here, the nation-states were the sole players. However, the ability to act externally is exactly what Europe needs now more than ever. </span></a></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Opponents of deeper European integration repeatedly point out with relish that the European peoples are too different to be happy in one state. They should be reminded, that it is a matter of the survival of a European identity and sheer existence in the intensifying competition between the world powers, USA and China, and not about the "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life,_Liberty_and_the_pursuit_of_Happiness">pursuit of happiness</a>" per se!</span></p>
<p><a name="_Hlk73917368"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The<i> </i>investor and neo-liberal hawk Peter Thiel recently summed up the dilemma of the European states in a recognisably gleeful way: "<i>At some point, Germany will have to make a choice in its export strategy. China or America? 'Chimerika‛ will not work for much longer. This raises a very, very unpleasant question for Germany. </i>“ </span></a></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In the middle of Europe, we even have an example of a state in which quite different European ethnic groups have come together, albeit in a much smaller format. Here, since 1291, the year of the founding of the Swiss Confederation, exactly what we expect from and for Europe has been practiced. In some respects, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland">Switzerland</a> could well serve as a blueprint for Europe. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">So, the state in which we should manifest our will to shape policy does not necessarily have to be a nation-state. In any case, there is a growing sense among economists, political scientists and even national governments that the nation-state is not necessarily the best yardstick on which to conduct our affairs. We should better remember that the nation state is a recent phenomenon. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Before the late 18th century, there were no real nation-states, says <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Breuilly">John Breuilly</a> of the London School of Economics. When you travelled across Europe, no one asked for your passport at the borders. There were neither passports nor borders as we know them. People had ethnic and cultural identities, but these did not really define the political entity in which they lived. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">So, since the nation-state is a comparatively young concept, perhaps its time is over anyway? Perhaps - that is not to say that it took its rise purely by chance. The nation-state can rather be understood as the inevitable consequence of some fundamental developments, first and foremost the improved means of communication through print, audio and video transmission, such as newspapers, telegraph, radio, television, etc and more. Another driving force was the need to cope with the increasing complexity caused by rapid industrialisation in the 19th century. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">On the one hand, many local tasks can be better dealt with at - yes - local level, suggesting a more medieval model of interacting sovereign city-states. On the other hand, the growing problems we face can only be dealt with at a much higher level. The whole world would be called upon. The European level has to be seen as the minimal to be able to participate in shaping a multipolar political world. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">As with its creation, it will probably again be a combination of new technology and external influencing factors that will also cause the abolition of the nation-state, which obviously was only temporarily helpful. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Digital transformation is more than a buzzword and has the potential to change not only the economy, but entire societies and ultimately the way we will govern ourselves. (Read more here: "<a href="https://www.diplomatic-council.org/node/284">Let algorithms rule - not politicians</a>!"). </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Whatever way political opinion is formed, whatever procedures we want to use to govern, Europe as a state needs direct democratic legitimacy. Europe's citizens must be able to elect their government directly and control its work through the means of parliamentary democracy. </span></p>
<h2><span style="font-family: verdana;">Europe needs more weight </span></h2>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I have already mentioned it several times: if we do not want to be the plaything of foreign powers, not the victim of global developments, not ground down between rival power blocs, then we have to reinvent ourselves. If we want to be taken seriously as a respected player on the world stage, if we want to take ourselves seriously, then we have to create Europe. Yes, we have to create it first. Because the Europe we need for this goal does not yet exist, it has not even been consistently conceived. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In order to be able to enter the international ring with the necessary <i>weight class</i>, this Europe must have certain characteristics: It must be large, unified and independent. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Size is </b>first measured, of course, by the number of individuals represented by the European state. More important for the international role, however, is the combined economic power. Thirdly, in the event of conflict, military assertiveness is, unfortunately, still a decisive argument. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">All three size-metrics depend directly on the number of participating states of origin. It must be clear that by no means all European states will be prepared to enter into this utopia. On the contrary, a retro-trend can currently be observed: back to the familiar confines of the domestic circle, to the old tradition, to the more ironclad certainties. This promises security and safety - but unfortunately it is a hollow promise. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Nor can it be ruled out that this "United States of Europe", the "European Confederation" or whatever the name for this target construct will be, would be attractive to states that do not qualify for participation in the sense of the discussion of values at the beginning of this consideration. For example, to take up an old debate, Turkey's participation in its current state is absolutely unthinkable. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Unity </b>is required regarding the foreign affairs. Only a unified position of an organisation that appears monolithic to the outside world and could not be divided into individual interest groups has a chance to act successfully. For this to happen, the state departments relevant for external political relationships, such as at least Foreign Affairs, Defence, Finance and, optionally, Economy & Energy, as well as some potential ministry for common infrastructures, must be represented at the European level and equipped with the necessary decision-making powers. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Internally, however, a different picture should emerge. Here, the colourful diversity of European cultural traditions should be able to unfold freely. Here, the maxim for the balance between centralised and decentralised should apply: as much centralism as necessary, and as much regionalism as tolerable. Competition between the regions would then be perfectly permissible, and perhaps even desirable in the sense of increasing overall performance. It is even possible that in this multinational state a certain "civilised" nationalism of the peoples could have its place, for instance, in the way the German “tribe” of the Bavarians today distinguishes itself from that of the Hanseatics and vice versa. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><b>Independent</b>: The demand for an independent European policy is a natural consequence of what has been said so far. If European politics were not independent, Europe would neither be taken seriously internationally nor be able to act in the interests of Europe. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Independence does not mean not being allowed to enter into alliances. However, these must be in Europe's interest and not serve the hegemony of other great powers. Under no circumstances should we, without considerable reflection "fight a little bit" in the wars with which the USA has overrun vast areas of the world in the course of its existence. Our freedom is by no means safe or even to be taken for granted. However, it has never had to be defended in the Hindu Kush, and as 20 years of senseless bloodshed have shown, it never could. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, we Europeans do suffer from the direct and indirect consequences of these actions. Not only that our traditional good trading partners are failing due to unilateral boycotts, but also the trade routes are disrupted by conflicts. The refugee catastrophe triggered by this fatal interventionism still has the potential to radicalise entire societies and blow up the current European community. Our hypocritical and inconsistent actions play into the hands of unscrupulous autocrats and stand in stark contrast to the values and human rights that we so readily demand from other states when the opportunity arises (but prefer not to when it does not). </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The triad of size, unity and independence alone would provide a certain weight. The more pronounced these three elements are embodied, the greater Europe's international room for manoeuvre! </span></p>
<h2><span style="font-family: verdana;">Europe has to maintain its own position </span></h2>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">What political position should Europe adopt? I have already touched on the indispensability of independence of European politics. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The returning emphasis on "Self-Reliance", be it in China or the US, could be an opportunity for Europe to play an independent role, an opportunity it should seize. From an independent position, a united Europe could even play a role in mediating between the two adversaries. This would avoid a potentially disastrous miscalculations by either or both parties. Rooted in the Western tradition like the US, actually even its origin, but co-located with China on the same "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afro-Eurasia">world island</a>," to use Victorian geographer Halford John <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halford_Mackinder">Mackinder's</a> more than 100-year-old term, Europe could play the role of mediator between the two competitors. In any case, the world would no longer be bipolar - if only Europe would wake up! </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Another element of Europe's political positioning results from the European values listed at the beginning. Of course, Europe may and should take a clear position here. Everyone is entitled to know the specifically European view on world affairs. The question of style, however, does arise. By no means must our political leaders shake the bloody hand of every dictator and look the other way at every atrocity. We should, however, refrain from missionary zeal, which in the end only exhausts itself in formulaic moral sermons to continue "<i>business as usual." </i>Experience has shown that the instrumentalization of human rights in global politics has only done them great harm. </span></p>
<h2><span style="font-family: verdana;">Europe need to assign itself a clear mission</span></h2>
<p><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">"Europe thus finds itself suspended between a past it seeks to overcome and a future it has not yet defined." </span></i></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Using these strong words Henry Kissinger concludes Chapter 2 "<i>The European Balance of Power System and its End</i>" of his 2014 book “<i>World Order</i>”. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">These are true words, clearly and unambiguously formulated, sufficiently provocative to serve as a call to action. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But so far, these words have fallen on deaf ears and are likely to continue to do so. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">With all its deliberate restraint, non-interference and renunciation of the role of deputy sheriff at the side of the world policeman, does Europe perhaps have a mission after all, a task that Europe should try to fulfil in this world? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I think the answer is yes. As mentioned before, we as humanity are facing some challenges that are bigger than Germany, even bigger than Europe. We can only hope that they are not too big for humanity yet. <a name="_Hlk74124880"></a></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">"Long-term preservation of our livelihoods on this planet", that must be the top priority we should follow. In any case, there can be no alternatives, unless we were inclined to consider collective suicide as an alternative in the medium term. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Following this imperative means acting more as a community, more pronounced than we have done so far, much more than the average U.S. citizen is accustomed to, but hopefully in a different social style than e.g. China is wont to do. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This results in an important, typically European secondary objective: the preservation and defence of civil liberties. It is to be feared that in coping with the tasks that lie ahead of us as humanity, it will not be possible to maintain them to the extent to which we are accustomed and take them for granted. For this reason, it will be all the more important to bring them to the fore. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">"<i>Nothing in the world is as powerful as an idea whose time has come</i>", the French writer <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Hugo">Victor Hugo</a> is fondly quoted. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Has the time for the multinational state "Europe" already come? I think so - and not just since today. That is why we need to rethink Europe. </span></p>
<h1><span style="font-family: verdana; font-weight: normal;">4. How can we create Europe?</span></h1>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In their confusion, Europe's elected leaders do not know exactly where they stand, and even less where they should go. Or might be in the end exactly that they don't want that at all? Do they really want to live for the moment only and ignore the future - as long as it appears on the horizon as a distant rumble of thunder? In any case, they allow themselves to be driven rather than leading themselves, and they let a 16-year-old girl in the UN General Assembly read them the riot act in concise but clear words. </span></p>
<p><a name="_Hlk74125213"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Europe has yet to define its future, we can certainly agree on that with Henry Kissinger, the old master of realpolitik. So, I have outlined the goal of a European multinational state, sketched out its position on the world stage and drafted a mission. </span></a></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In terms of content, therefore, I propose significant changes. What I have not said so far is how we intend to achieve it. The suspicion is justified that we will not succeed by applying the existing procedures, and even more so with the current political actors. </span></p>
<h2><span style="font-family: verdana;">Less human - more programme </span></h2>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><i>"He doesn't bite. He just wants to play</i>", dog handlers like to say about their charges. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The basic attitude of today's professional politicians can be characterised with a slightly modified statement: </span></p>
<p><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">"They shirk from doing politics. They just want to advance their careers. </span></i></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Political content is bent according to expediency. Professional success is the only criterion. So don't worry, everything is half as bad. Those who don't bite can't be dangerous. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">One caveat is in order, however: What has been said applies only to organizations in which a career is also worthwhile - and where the political program is in any case determined more by opinion polls than by inner conviction. How else could it be explained that in Germany, in the spring of 2021, shortly before an election, all parties suddenly "turn green"?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">While only a short time ago they were raging against the "green nutters", suddenly, driven by election forecasts, they have adopted the same programme points without hesitation in an abrupt about-turn. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">On the right and left fringes of the political spectrum, the situation is usually different. Here, there are still people who, at least initially, follow their political convictions, however inappropriate they may be. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Is this how we get the political elite we think we need? Probably not!</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Let us postpone for a moment the question of whether we do need a "political elite" at all. But why do we not get them in this way? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Well, the instinctive, quick-reacting jungle fighter is not the far-sighted leader on his lonely commander's mound. Being able to assess every suspicious rustle with lightning speed, to recognise a shadow as a threat in the twilight of the undergrowth where one begins one's career, but at the same time to forge the right alliances - usually for a limited period of time - are skills essential for survival on the way up. Otherwise, the ambitious newcomer will not survive the first days in the backrooms of committee meetings. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But do they also qualify to run a large authority, a state? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Of course, there is a selection of the most able going on here. These are no fools who prevail in this game - well, usually not. But it is a very special selection that you will get as a result. Now, the traditional political career in this, our country, like any other career, goes through various stages, the "long march through the institutions" from a common foot soldier to a powerful party secretary. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It should be clear that the requirements for candidates differ at the individual career levels. The selection would therefore have to start anew at each stage, with the result that perhaps once no suitable candidate would be available. Snakes and other reptiles, like insects, shed their skin when they grow. So do careerists in corporate hierarchies. And so do party career climbers too. They simply reincarnate into a new role, sometimes a new identity, change their habits, sometimes their pretended beliefs and convictions, their environment and swap their social contacts. They "acquire" the required optimal "skillset" for their new role. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It's all a question of engineering, of management. Hmmm, is it that simple? Oh, I had forgotten to mention one tiny detail. At some level, you also have to think about the effect on the public. For all your qualifications, you have to “come across as an authentic person”. To do that, you have to be able to show some cleverly designed “rough edges”, maybe even a certain folksiness. After all, it is the people who will later be the electorate to elevate you to the top.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">And that's what it's all about, the way up, which many equate with the way to power: power over others. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This well-rehearsed mechanism has been working this way for a long time now. It has already produced entire generations of politicians, including those whose lack of foresight we so deplore, whose party bickering gets on our nerves, whom we do not trust to lead us safely through the perils that lie in the uncertain path to the future. So, if we want a new, a very different political elite, it will probably have to be produced through other mechanisms, perhaps forgoing a classic career. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But is this political elite really necessary? Is the professional politician still appropriate in the digital age? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">My answer here is a clear no. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Politics is too important to be left to politicians who - see above - don't want to "bite" at all. We obviously need a completely different system to reach political decisions, to regulate, to govern. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We do not have this system today. I think there is a consensus on that. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I don't know of any settled and accepted theories of what it should look like. So, we have to think for ourselves, tackle it - preferably deductively, from the top down. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">My thesis is: Less human - more programme, in the spirit of the well-known graffito "<i>No power to anyone</i>." </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Party programs or platforms have been around for a long time. Every party has one. Few voters have ever read one or even based their voting decisions on it. Most of the time, they are deliberately vague and general so as not to unnecessarily limit the political scope of the actors involved. Accordingly, they rarely offer concrete help in making decisions in specific individual cases. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The word "program" has at least two meanings in our common understanding: One is the vague party program already mentioned. In the context of computers of all kinds, however, it is equated with a deterministic calculation rule. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">What would it actually be like if we were to merge the two variants? I have already thought about this <a href="https://www.diplomatic-council.org/node/284">elsewhere</a>. We should not repeat these thoughts here. Let me just say this: Ultimately and in the long run, I think algorithms are the better politicians. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Will politicians then become jobless? No, they will become programmers - party programmers. Maybe then we won't need professional politicians anymore, or at least not that many. Politicians who work part-time or after work can also participate in drafting, voting and extensive testing of rules and principles. This scenario could contribute to less self-promotion or reckless ambition!</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The way to more direct democracy, which works rather poorly via citizens' petitions and similar actions - except perhaps in Switzerland - is thus paved via regulated participation in the rules and regulations with the help of modern electronic communication. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">A permanent party conference in the style of a Facebook chat? Yes, why not?</span></p>
<h2><span style="font-family: verdana;">The long march through the institutions </span></h2>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We might already have suspected it. The end of the "politician" as a profession will not happen overnight. Even if rule-based and AI-supported better government decisions can be expected, we must first create this policy oracle, this great information machine. Such a big goal can probably only be achieved in small steps. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">At the beginning, there must still be a firm will to reshape Europe. This will should manifest itself visibly, ideally through a grassroots movement. Politics must not be limited to a "fire and forget" on election day. It must rather once again become a task for everyone. Our elected representatives should limit themselves to representing us. They should not govern us as they please, but be our representatives who are accountable to us, their principals. Some of them may need to be told this. We are not their "subjects," but their customers. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, it is also clear that the day-to-day political business cannot be done collectively from the comfort of our sofa at home. Rather, this rallying movement must agree on the essential principles that address the pressing issues facing us as a whole, as mentioned at the beginning. To be successful, the commitments and demands should retain a certain generality. Differing views on details and implementation options can all too easily lead to major controversies, with the risk of infighting or even fragmentation. This would serve no one. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">As the example of the "greening" of the German party landscape impressively shows, a large and determined group, without formal mechanisms to articulate its political will but with firm conviction, can certainly influence politicians or even entire parties in its favour who have hitherto been indifferent or hostile to these issues.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This does not primarily refer to the German <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/03/polls-put-german-green-party-in-lead-five-months-before-election">Greens</a> as a party. Their predicted success in the upcoming federal elections this year is indeed causing a stir in the German party landscape (with the exception of the right-wing <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany">AFD</a>). </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">I am thinking of another grassroots movement that is loosely organised, as can be seen from the outside, but united by a strong common drive and so skilfully orchestrated that it is the envy of political professionals. The ‘<a href="https://fridaysforfuture.org/"><i>Fridays for Future</i></a><i>’ </i>movement has managed to make an impact where a host of other organisations have failed. It has made almost the entire political scene do a 180° turn with lightning speed, high flexibility and without long retreats. Since then, they pretend to have "always" given priority to environmental concerns. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Giving voice to the zeitgeist and their sheer numbers have been sufficient to cause a political tremor. The sincerity of this sudden change of mind need hardly be doubted, but it can be confidently denied. Thus, the sustainability and consistency of the measures that must inevitably result from this commitment are also rather questionable. Obviously, more than just "soft power" is needed, but rather "organised resistance". Perhaps it is even unavoidable here in Germany, as in every other European state, to take the arduous path of founding a quite conventional national political party. At least this would give the mission as formulated here a legally constituted home. However, this would be the beginning of a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Long-March">long march</a> through the institutions. </span></p>
<h1><span style="font-family: verdana; font-weight: normal;">5. Europe - and what comes after</span></h1>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Today, we are still struggling with the realisation that, in the face of the gigantic challenges facing humanity as a whole, we Europeans should put our commonalities above what separates us. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Achieving this and thus creating a Europe capable of action will take all our strength for some years to come. But we already suspect that this cannot be the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man"><i>end </i>of <i>history</i></a>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We must create Europe not least so that we can have a say in our own destiny in the world, so that we can assert our interests, so that we are not pulverised in the great struggle between the world powers. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In the long run, however, this will not be enough. In order to overcome the challenges, we face as the whole of humanity, it is necessary to act as a community. A Westphalian world order, of mutual balance, will not do justice to this necessity. It will not be enough to feel European and fight for Europe. We will have to see ourselves as a world community, united in a confederation of world citizens who behave like <a href="https://www.facebook.com/World-Citizens-League-288288398768839/">world citizens</a>.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">For compared to the challenges outlined at the beginning, the emerging new great power competition, however universal and timeless its rules may seem, looks like a game from the 19th century. The time we have left to act is already running out. There is simply no more room for a renewal of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Game"><i>Great Game</i></a>, a new Cold War, say between the US and China, or any other great power competition. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The scarcity of our planet's resources will give us no respite. If all other developments remain unchecked, the scarcity of resources alone will eventually bring the machine to a halt. By then, in a few decades, we will feel the devastating effects of man-made climate change. Not to mention the immediate short-term threats such as social inequality or the danger of the use of weapons of mass destruction. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">What they all have in common is that they can only be overcome if we global citizens begin to see ourselves as such, as global citizens, and act as a community with a common mission. More than ever, we need a resurrection of reason from its <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/postmodernism-philosophy">postmodern</a> grave. But if we choose to continue to follow the traditional, well-trodden paths, the earth will end up helping itself - with grim consequences for us all.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">So, let's start at our own doorstep. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Finally, I would like to let Henry Kissinger have his <a href="https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/henry-kissinger-ueber-die-usa-china-und-die-zukunft-der-welt-ld.1625753">say</a> here once again: "<i>When we talk about the EU now, the question is whether we are talking about a political entity with an active strategy and clearly defined goals. </i></span></p>
<p><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">Or is it becoming an institution focused on the welfare of its people and on promoting certain areas of science, but with no ambition for involvement in global issues? </span></i></p>
<p><i><span style="font-family: verdana;">Europe has achieved tremendous things economically and politically, but in terms of its historical and strategic role, it seems to me that Europe is still at the very beginning of its development. That, in my view, will be the central challenge for the years to come." </span></i></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">That is the challenge we should take up. Let's start by creating this Europe. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Horst Walther, Hamburg, 2021-09-18</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">A German version of this contribution can be found also <a href="https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Andreas-Dripke/dp/394781836X" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></p>
Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-18144569225719650012021-02-14T19:57:00.000+01:002021-02-14T19:57:29.866+01:00China the US and the fate of the world<h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Challenges abound</span></h2><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The earth overshoot day is marking the day when humanity has consumed as much resources as may be used sustainably per year at maximum. That day tends to occur earlier each year, as the world population grows, and we tend to consumer more resource per capita each year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Only last year did it appear later than the year before on 2020-08-22. It is not difficult to see that the measures taken to combat the CoVid-19 pandemic are responsible for this extraordinary effect. Nevertheless, this does not at all mean that we can give the all-clear. On the contrary, if you look at a graphical representation of the annual positioning of Earth Overshoot Day over the last 50 years, you could easily confuse it with a burn-down diagram as used in modern agile project management. ^</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.overshootday.org/content/uploads/2020/07/2020_Past_EOD_full_year_small.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="587" data-original-width="800" height="294" src="https://www.overshootday.org/content/uploads/2020/07/2020_Past_EOD_full_year_small.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Only difference is, that we don’t reduce a product backlog here, but burn down the entire planet, right down to zero. To not let this happen, now, more than ever seems it necessary to take a worldwide coordinated action. In the end the mere survival of mankind along with any higher life on this planet is at stake.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">If the whole world consumed at the level of the average U.S. citizen, that day would already be in February. But the rest of the world, and especially the developing part of it, is aiming exactly in that direction. And you can't even blame them for that. Why and with what right would one want to deprive them of what others have been able to enjoy for years. In China alone, 2 billion stamping feet set out before the third millennium to take the step into a better life with diligence, energy and determination. They have every right to do so. And yet - there will not be enough for all of us.</span></p><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Time to act</span></h2><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This makes it all the more important now to take coordinated, appropriate measures worldwide to find a way out of this threatening situation. The resources that are still available must be better distributed, a sustainable form of economic activity must be found, and in the medium to long term the earth's population, which is still growing at a breath-taking pace, must be reduced to a sustainable level again</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Of course, sustainability starts with the lifestyle of each individual, the family, the local community. We could eat less to no meat, take the bicycle instead of the SUV, reduce air travel to distant vacation destinations. That might already help - a little.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Overcoming the negative systemic impacts of human economic activity, however, is a bit more challenging. As long as humans have existed, we have caused harmful impacts on our environment. Everywhere we have gone, we have driven some species to extinction. The mammoth, the moa, the giant sloth, and many others have been welcomed as giant piles of meat and consumed to the point of total extinction. The "noble savage" obviously never existed. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The insidious savage, however, seems to live on. We live just in the so-called sixth extinction phase. Hunting, as the most archaic form of predation, is not yet banned in any country, nor is fishing. On the contrary, it is considered a basic civil right in some legislations. The extent of these activities is even increasing. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Agriculture, the next stage of civilization's achievements, brings little relief to nature. Even so-called organic farming still locks nature out of vast swaths of land, degrades land, and yet is unable to feed the world. Highly productive modern high-input industrial agriculture may meet growing food demand for a while longer, but at the price of even more rapid and extensive resource consumption. A form of food-producing circular economy is not yet in sight. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We are obviously trapped here, unable to move in any direction because any movement would be punished by market forces. In the past, the entire internal structure of an entire industry changed only when these same market forces built up pressure that favoured alternative solutions such as synthetic rubber, fuels from coal, sugar from beets instead of sugar cane. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Of course, market forces are environmentally agnostic. Resource scarcity, changing consumer demand or changing regulations are the drivers here. Only after the damage is done, so if we wait that long, will they respond to dwindling resources. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">While consumers might change their demand, driven by new insights leading to new beliefs - it is a low probability scenario. The remaining means of regulatory control elsewhere requires powerful actors to influence these globally interconnected systems. The level of nation states is too low to have an impact. Above that, there are no institutions capable of taking action.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Those National states indeed represent the next level of Governance. Here through legislative and other governmental activities quite noticeable effects can be achieved. So, several countries have set targets until when to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles" target="_blank">phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles</a>, ranging from 2025 (Belgium) and 2050 (Costa Rica) widely differing in scope and determination. So, one is not idle at this level. However, one could object: too late, too little and not coordinated. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">All these actions, as hart-warming they may seem, may be sincere and may have been hard fought for. Perhaps they have the character of cover-ups of inactivity. Perhaps more was simply not achievable on the current political stage. Interestingly, in the light of these demands, China's long pursued and often scolded one-child policy was perhaps, in retrospect, one of the wisest decisions of mankind. Without it, we might already be in the midst of a famine catastrophe of unimaginable proportions.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Yet, much more needs to be done, worldwide, coordinated on a global scale. To stop devastating he planet we need to act as a community of world citizens. </span></p><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The world stage</span></h2><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In search of the next level of decisive, organized action, we finally enter world stage, currently dominated by to major topics: The CoVid-19 Pandemic and the growing China-US antagonism. Obviously, there is no world community, determined, decisive and effective enough to confront the challenges and enforce solutions. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The pandemic alone would require a global response. Yet it is rather used for sowing division. Jamie P. Horsley on Wednesday, August 19, 2020 soberly <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/19/lets-end-the-covid-19-blame-game-reconsidering-chinas-role-in-the-pandemic/">summarized </a>US attempts to blame others of theirs own failures: “According to U.S. Secretary of State <a href="https://www.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future/">Mike Pompeo</a>, “today we’re all still wearing masks and watching the pandemic’s body count rise because the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] failed in its promises to the world.” This was just on example of the Trump administration <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/karenrobinsonjacobs/2020/08/11/azar-echoing-trump-doubles-down-on-blaming-china-for-coronavirus-spread/#7d9aa11a4e8e">blaming </a>China, particularly the Chinese Communist Party, for the COVID-19 pandemic that surfaced in Wuhan, Hubei Province at the end of 2019. China, in turn, has <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-03-16/in-depth-how-the-us-missed-its-window-for-taming-the-covid-19-virus-101528836.html">accused </a>the United States of mismanagement and failure to take the pandemic seriously.”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Originally it was the US president Donald Trump, who even <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/22/trump-urges-un-to-hold-china-accountable-for-coronavirus-pandemic.html">urged the UN</a> to hold China accountable for the coronavirus pandemic. There were even attempts emerging in the US for a <a href="https://mast.house.gov/china-debt">legislation </a>to hold China accountable for its alleged coronavirus deception. Just for a second try to imagine any actor on the political world stage launching legal action against countries where AIDS or Ebola once originated. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">This blame game has been and remains a serious distraction from the essential and difficult work needed to control this terrible disease. But the tone set. It perfectly reflects the current general US stance on China.</span></p><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">Where is Europe?</span></h2><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The fragmented European political landscape, for a good part consisting of dwarf states can safely regarded just as US vassals. So, decisions taking in the US, to maintain the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/pushback-xi-china-europe-germany-beyond-u-s-11609176287">pretence of a genuinely autonomous decision</a>, with some decent delay is nevertheless executed in Europe. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But is it really in Europe’s interest just following American footsteps, fighting American wars I the middle east – at least a little bit, to block Russian Gas and Chinese 5G products in favour of American brands? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">We should be aware that all that China bashing, made in the USA, is rooted in a <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R43838.pdf">Renewed Great Power Competition</a>, which is going on since a few years. Or in other words: “<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/crack-down-china-except-silicon-valley/">Everyone Wants to Crack Down on China—Except Silicon Valley</a>”. Yet US policy, and the Biden administration will be not exception, besides in style, leaves the world increasingly polarized: “Nuance and distinctions will not help win the political battle,” says Eileen Donahoe, a former Obama official who directs Stanford University’s Global Digital Policy Incubator. “Donald Trump has succeeded in controlling the dominant political narrative with a simplistic political idea-‘<b>China bad</b>.’”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Another interesting coincidence, sadly demonstrates the tool character of western journalism. You can simply call it propaganda, not much different from state the controlled media they so eagerly criticise. I mean the sad twin events of the Chinese Lawyer-Turned-Citizen Journalist Zhang Zhan receiving 4 years prison for Wuhan Posts (r<a href="https://www.globalsecurity.org/security/library/news/2020/12/sec-201228-rfa01.htm?_m=3n%2e002a%2e2960%2evq0ao00kip%2e2qj6">eported by US media</a>) and the Saudi terrorism court having sentenced women’s rights activist Loujain al-Hathloul to five years and eight months in prison, on charges including agitating for change, pursuing a foreign agenda and using the internet to harm public order (reluctantly covered by western media but <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/28/saudi-court-hands-jail-sentence-to-womens-rights-activist">reported by Al Jazeera</a>). The likewise simplistic message to the unconscious western public: ‘<b>Saudi Arabia good</b>’).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Usually, we Europeans tend to blindly follow any US policy. In cases, when we don’t, like in the case of the <a href="https://www.nord-stream.com/">North Stream Pipeline</a> (whether its construction was a wise decision or not) we get an educational slap in the face by our elder brother. In this increasingly polarized world order, we are not even asked to pick sides. We are just expected to follow.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">What is just starting in Europe, seem to be in full swing in other regions, which tend to follow every U.S. impulse thoughtlessly, mindlessly, and without thinking twice, are on step further already. Australia’s ties with China e.g. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/storythreads/2020-11-09/standing-up-to-china-comes-at-a-high-price-for-australia">as Bloomberg report</a>s, have been fraught since 2018 when Canberra barred Huawei Technologies Co. from building its 5G network on “national security grounds”. They went into the deep freeze earlier this year after Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government called for an international inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus. As <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-29/there-s-more-than-wine-in-australia-china-trade-tension">Mohamed A. El-Erian on a Bloomberg comment</a> points out : As such, the cost of Australia’s running the dual-option model will continue to rise - for countries that pursue it too, including Canada and Singapore.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">The more the U.S. flexes its muscles and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXov7MkgPB4">China reacts accordingly</a>, the greater the risk that the dual-option countries will be forced to pick sides, especially on certain technologies. That would imply additional short-term adjustments and fragmentation pressures for a global economy that is dealing with the biggest growth hit it has suffered for several decades; increasing inequality of income, wealth and opportunity both within and across countries; growing economic and financial disparities; and a multilateral system that is challenged in responding to common shocks.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Even with the ouster of Donald Trump, who had been instrumental in driving this development, the situation is no more relaxed. So far, there are no signs that his successor Joe Biden will dismantle trade barriers again which have been erected by the predecessor administration.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">It hasn’t always been that way. From the Shanghai Communique signed in 1972, in which the U.S. and China together <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2017/07/countering-hegemony-the-us-china-balance/">sought to counter hegemony</a> in the Asia-Pacific, to the present day, wherein the U.S. sees China as a <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf">strategic threat</a>, and a “<a href="https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Publications/UNCLASS_2018_National_Military_Strategy_Description.pdf">near peer competitor</a>” in the Indo-Pacific, the relationship has come full circle.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">For its allies and partners, who may one day need to choose between the U.S. and China, it will <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/dont-make-us-choose-southeast-asia-in-the-throes-of-us-china-rivalry/">become less attractive</a> siding with Washington. For Beijing, the very fact that U.S. allies and partners are increasingly finding it hard to side with Washington is already a win. The question is: how can Beijing and Washington compel each other to change their respective routes to global primacy? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">As with the last Cold War, there could be a clear winner in the <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/who-is-winning-the-us-china-power-battle/">long run</a>. As with all predictions, we can't yet be sure who to bet on. But we can certainly name one clear loser - it will be the planet, which means all of us.</span></p><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">The imperative</span></h2><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">For Europe the new trend that, from China to the US, the<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/from-china-to-the-us-the-self-reliance-slogan-is-back/"> ‘Self-Reliance’ Slogan</a> is back, could be a chance for an independent role, a chance it should seize. From an independent position, a united Europe could play a major role in mediating between both adversaries, hereby avoiding potentially catastrophic miscalculations by either party. Rooted in the western tradition like the US, actually its origin, but located together with China on the same “<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2019/01/china-and-the-world-island/">world island</a>” to use Halford John Mackinder's more than 100-year-old term, Europe could play the role of mediator between the two adversaries. In any case, the world would no longer be bipolar - if only Europe would wake up.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Compared to the upcoming challenges outlined at the beginning, the great power competition, as universal and timeless as its rules may seem, appears like a 19th century game. Our planet’s burn down chart will show no mercy. Leaving all other developments unchecked, the source scarcity alone will someday let the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Machine_Stops">machine stop</a>. Before then, in the range of a few decades, we will feel the crippling effects of man-made climate change. Not to mention immediate short-term threats such as societal inequality or the threat of nuclear weapons use. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">What they all have in common is that they can only be overcome, once we citizens of the world start seeing ourselves as <a href="https://worldcitizensleague.blogspot.com/">world citizens</a> and start acting as a community with a common cause. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">As time is running out, there is simply no room for a renewal of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Game">the Great Game</a>, a new US vs. China cold war or any other great power competition. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">In order to avoid falling into <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap">Thucydides’ Trap</a> or re-enacting the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons">Tragedy of the commons</a> , we must abandon many outdated behaviours. For the moment, to be sure, everything looks like the tragedy of power politics unfolding with somnambulistic determination, as if following a textbook. What we would need instead, and more than ever, is a resurrection of reason from its postmodern grave. It will be up to existing institutions and those to be created or empowered to take the necessary action. But "We the People" of the world must drive them to do so.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">However, if we choose to continue to follow the traditional well-trodden paths, the Earth will end up helping itself - with bleak consequences for us all.</span></p><p><br /></p>Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-34402888023492255222020-01-14T00:24:00.003+01:002020-01-14T08:40:26.830+01:00The great AI controversy<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Oscar Wilde, 1854-1900</span></span></td></tr>
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Will one day a superintelligence assign us the status we have reserved for wildlife theses days?<br />
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There is no consensus at all. There are statements, beliefs, positions, no proof. So, whom to believe?<br />
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<i>And all men kill the thing they love,<br />By all let this be heard,<br />Some do it with a bitter look,<br />Some with a flattering word,<br />The coward does it with a kiss,<br />The brave man with a sword!</i><br />
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Oscar Wilde, <br />
Ballad of Reading Gaol,1898<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
1 Intro</h2>
I am a fan of Oscar’s lucid dandy quotes. In most cases I quietly enjoy, but have to say tse tse tse …<br />
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This quote (which doesn't originate from himself) however left me wondering, if there might not be more to it than we might think at first glance. Maybe there is truth in this statement, which applies to the whole humanity.<br />
Let’s take the current discussion about AI.<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
2 Open questions</h2>
A few months ago, Hang Nguyen, Chair Women of the <a href="https://www.diplomatic-council.org/">Diplomatic Council</a>, raised the issue of <a href="https://www.diplomatic-council.org/node/99">addressing</a> the challenges, which are to be expected in the wake of the upcoming AI wave, to a global level in the United Nations. In order not to code ourselves into oblivion, she reminded the world community of its common responsibility to leave no one behind.<br />
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There obviously seems to be the widespread expectation that “the most radical technological revolution within human history” lies ahead of us. It even no longer seems to be far away. This expectation however is where the consensus ends already. The expectations as to how this fundamental transformation will affect the life of the individual citizen are extremely diverse.<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
3 Voices talking to me</h2>
For some years now, I have been following the increasingly intense debate with likewise increasing curiosity, but also with growing scepticism. For about three years now, I have been trying to write about it. However, I was hesitating - always expecting the next literary contribution of a well-known and respected scientist, philosopher or politician contributing substantially new insights, which could help defining a conclusive vision. <br />
<br />
That however was not the case. Obviously, we can take the greatest care and invest a huge effort trying to estimate consequences and influence of this new technology. It does not seem to be enough for reliable predictions or even a general consensus. One must have the impression that we have reached the limits of our cognitive capacity at this point already. Beyond that lies the realm of philosophy, of faith, of fear and hope.<br />
<br />
The discussion about promises and perils of “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Our_Final_Invention">humanity’s last invention</a>” mostly focus on two salient stages during its projected development …<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><b><i>The economic singularity</i></b> – When human involvement in classical “work” becomes redundant</li>
<br />
<li><b><i>The control singularity</i></b> – When artificial intelligences surpasses average human intelligence – and takes over control</li>
</ul>
<br />
Whereas the first expectation will lead us to a discussion of politics and society models and deserves a longer publication on its own, the latter is of an existential nature and will dominate the remaining chapters.<br />
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So, let us listen to some of the voices, some of which you may already have heard. <br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
3.1 The Warners</h2>
As with every major change, of course there are the warners. Prof Stephen Hawking, one of Britain's pre-eminent scientists, who sadly passed away on March 14, 2018, has said that efforts to create thinking machines pose a threat to our very existence. Some <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540">four years ago he already stated</a> "<i>It would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate</i>." and "<i>Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn't compete, and would be superseded</i>." <br />
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Another prominent representative of this class is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk">Elon Musk</a>. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO predicts that an untamed AI will eventually assign humanity a similar status as we did to wildlife today: "<i>It's just like, if we're building a road and an anthill just happens to be in the way, we don't hate ants, we're just building a road, and so, goodbye anthill." </i>He <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/06/elon-musk-warns-ai-could-create-immortal-dictator-in-documentary.html">elaborates further</a> <i></i>that artificial intelligence <i>"doesn't have to be evil to destroy humanity. If AI has a goal and humanity just happens to be in the way, it will destroy humanity as a matter of course without even thinking about it. No hard feelings</i>." <br />
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The British artificial intelligence researcher, neuroscientist, and much more, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demis_Hassabis">Demis Hassabis</a>, is according to his own perception working on the most important project in the world, developing artificial super-intelligence. During a <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03/elon-musk-billion-dollar-crusade-to-stop-ai-space-x">joint interview</a> with, Musk the latter objected that this was one reason we need to colonize Mars “<i>so that we’ll have a bolt-hole if AI goes rogue and turns on humanity</i>.” Amused, Hassabis countered that AI would simply follow humans to Mars. I might like to add: “<i>At that point in time AI will most probably already be there</i>.”<br />
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There are more of this kind of doomsday prophets around - and they are not even to be considered the dumbest minds on our planet. The challenge they are addressing is commonly known as the ‘control problem’. Nobody still claims that we have solved the puzzle. Some however are much more confident that all will be fine in the end.<br />
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Below the control problem threshold sceptics are abundant, warning that AI may strip us of job opportunities and disrupt the planet’s societies in a very negative way, at least unless bold collective action is taken. As a random example let me cite Robert Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University, on Feb 21, 2019 in “The AI Road to Serfdom?” in <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/automation-may-not-boost-worker-income-by-robert-skidelsky-2019-02">Project Syndicate</a>:<br />
“<i>Estimates of job losses in the near future due to automation range from 9% to 47%, and jobs themselves are becoming ever more precarious. Should we trust the conventional economic narrative according to which machines inevitably raise workers' living standards</i>?”<br />
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These concerns are so widespread and common that hardly any further voice needs citation. As I stated above the response to this threat can only be of a political nature. By adjusting property-rights and income distribution to this new state, cataclysmic developments could be hold at bay. As the advent of this scenario is to be expected rather near term, it certainly deserves a separate and immediate discussion. Here I will stay focused on the control problem.<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
3.2 The euphoric prophets</h3>
Then there are the prophets. Probably the most prominent and well known among them is the American <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inventor" title="Inventor">inventor</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futurist" title="Futurist">futurist</a>. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil">Ray (Raymond) Kurzweil</a>, born 1948 in Queens, New York City, U.S.. Kurzweil claims that of the 147 total predictions he made, 86% were "entirely correct” or "essentially correct”.<br />
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In his book <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near">The Singularity Is Near</a> he predicts that a machine will pass the <a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing-Test">Turing test</a> by 2029, and that around 2045, "<i>the pace of change will be so astonishingly quick that we won't be able to keep up, unless we enhance our own intelligence by merging with the intelligent machines we are creating</i>".<br />
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Kurzweil stresses, "<i>AI is not an intelligent invasion from Mars. These are brain extenders, which we have created to expand our own mental reach. They are part of our civilization. They are part of who we are.”</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Between the lines, you may well recognize that Ray does not deny that AI will eventually take over and push us humans out of the loop of its own further evolution. However, he assumes that all this will happen for our own good.<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
3.3 The experts</h3>
Before we listen to the experts of this field and try to confront the pros & cons, let’s listen to the timeless advice of the grandmaster of scientific utopias, Arthur C. Clarke: <br />
<br />
<i> When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.</i><br />
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So, what do the real experts say? Most of them elude answering the question of our time.<br />
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
The artificial consciousness enigma </h4>
At the very heart of all those discussions lies the question: can machines become conscious? Could they even develop - or be programmed to contain - a soul? Of course the answers (as discussed in <a href="https://futurism.com/artificial-consciousness">Artificial Consciousness: How To Give A Robot A Soul</a>) to these questions depend entirely on how you define these things. So far, we haven’t found satisfactory definitions in the 70 years since artificial intelligence first emerged as an academic pursuit.<br />
<br />
Although we today can be sure that there hasn’t been any machine built so far, which we safely can attribute a soul or a mind, we are still lacking commonly agreed scientific definitions of these very concepts. So even if a robot with a soul would suddenly walk around the corner, we couldn’t diagnose it with sufficient confidence.<br />
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For many researchers machine consciousness is simply beyond comprehension …<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><a href="http://dap.flu.cas.cz/en/people/vladimir-havlik">Vladimir Havlík</a>, a philosopher at the Czech Academy of Sciences is quoted with the ever-repeated statement that “<i>Even more sophisticated algorithms that may skirt the line and present as conscious entities are recreations of conscious beings, not a new species of thinking, self-aware creatures</i>.”</li>
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<li>So it doesn’t come as a surprise that researchers tend to confine themselves just to the next phase: “<i>My approach to AI is essentially pragmatic</i>” <a href="https://federation.edu.au/schools/school-of-science-engineering-and-information-technology/staff-profiles/information-technology/peter-vamplew">Peter Vamplew</a>, an AI researcher at Federation University, told Futurism. “<i>To me it doesn’t matter whether an AI system has real intelligence, or real emotions and empathy. All that matters, is that it behaves in a manner that makes it beneficial to human society</i>.”</li>
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<li>“<i>I am very critical of the idea of artificial consciousness</i>,” <a href="https://www.bernardokastrup.com/">Bernardo Kastrup</a>, a philosopher and AI researcher, is quoted. “<i>I think it’s nonsense. Artificial intelligence, on the other hand, is the future</i>.”</li>
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<li>Or <a href="https://cs.byu.edu/parttime_faculty/info/50504">Nancy Fulda</a>, a computer scientist at Brigham Young University, told <a href="https://futurism.com/">Futurism</a> “<i>As to whether a computer could ever harbour a divinely created soul: I wouldn’t dare to speculate.</i>” </li>
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<li>Typical for this categorical kind of statements bare of any compelling justification is <a href="https://hackernoon.com/why-ai-will-bring-an-explosion-of-new-jobs-11dc203890b">this one</a> by Daniel Jeffries: “<i>But machines will not take over the world. No matter how smart machines get, humans are still better at certain kinds of thinking.</i>” </li>
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<li>Another illustrating example is taken from a (German language) <a href="https://www.xing.com/news/insiders/articles/reichen-regeln-fur-eine-ethische-ki-wirklich-aus-2228473">article on ethic rules for AI</a> by <a href="https://www.xing.com/profile/Anabel_TernesvonHattburg/N116.eac70e?sc_o=news-2966_in_pr">Anabel Ternes von Hattburg</a>: "<i>Of course machines can learn and develop their own algorithms based on results. But they still make use of programs consisting of certain basic commands – nothing more. Emotional intelligence, creativity and social empathy cannot be created in this way. They will remain the domain of man</i>."</li>
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<li>Let’s close with the <a href="https://rp-online.de/kultur/julian-nida-ruemelin-die-digitalisierung-macht-uns-nicht-zu-gott_aid-37101813">most striking denial</a> by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Nida-R%C3%BCmelin">Julian Nida-Rümelin</a> (in German Language). “<i>The goal is rather the realization that even with all digital achievements we will not become God. All these systems do not recognize anything, they do not predict anything, they are not intelligent, and they have no intentions - neither good nor bad. All highly developed technologies always remain only aids. This is an important message: we are not creating new personal identities!</i>”</li>
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</ul>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
Containment Attempts</h4>
As a recurring pattern, others don’t refuse the possibility of a “Super Intelligence” arising someday. Instead they come up with policies and rules, to be embedded at lowest level in those artificially intelligent systems to prevent them to break loose, run astray or even possibly become evil.<br />
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There is some compelling logic in the statement the British mathematician <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I._J._Good">I.J. Good</a>, who coined the term “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity">intelligence explosion</a>”, is cited with: “<i>An ultra-intelligent machine could design even better machines. There would the unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion’ and the intelligence of man could be left far behind. This ultra-intelligent machine will be the last invention man need ever to make.”</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
And as if he takes Goods ideas one step further, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Barrat">James Barrat</a> in his book “<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17286699-our-final-invention">the final Invention</a>” states: “<i>… provided the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.”</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
In “<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/minority-report-mind-reading-dystopia-becoming-real-by-alexander-friedman-2019-12">Dystopia Is Arriving in Stages</a>” Alexander Friedman wrote “<i>It is commonly believed that the future of humanity will one day be threatened by the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), perhaps embodied in malevolent robots. Yet as we enter the third decade of the millennium, it is not the singularity we should fear, but rather a much older enemy: ourselves</i>.” <br />
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And indeed, there might be some truth in this quote, either as directly as it was meant, which would e.g. explain the <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2015/02/where-are-aliens.html">Fermi Paradox</a>, or via the intermediate step of creating a super-AI which would continue the business for us.<br />
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So, is it human arrogance to believe that during the autonomous evolution of a machines most basic values may stay be safely protected, given a clear set of underlying independent axioms stays fixed somehow? These axioms will e.g. relate changes in state of general well-being to the benefice or detriment of individual autonomy. One principle would require equality between individuals.<br />
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Another will set the principle of good to the growth of autonomy. In addition, a third one sets the principle of bad to a decline in autonomy, and so forth.<br />
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This, they hope, may give rise to categories of benevolence and evil that construct protocols for imperatives and prohibitions of behaviour. These universal principles may be derived bottom-up from an accumulation of normative evolutionary ethics or top-down from platonic ideals, which shaped the formation of cultural norms. In result, they form a natural law that produces logical conclusions about behaviours. <br />
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So, fear of an unethical or even rogue AI has led to several activities. One can be seen in the formation of the “<a href="https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/high-level-expert-group-artificial-intelligence">High-Level Expert Group on Artificial Intelligence</a>” (AI HLEG). Here, following an open selection process, the European Commission has appointed 52 experts to a High-Level Expert Group on Artificial Intelligence, comprising representatives from academia, civil society, as well as industry with the general objective to support the implementation of the European Strategy on Artificial Intelligence, including ethical issues related to AI. In June 2018, the AI HLEG delivered the “<a href="https://ec.europa.eu/futurium/en/ai-alliance-consultation/guidelines#Top">Ethics Guidelines on Artificial Intelligence</a>”. The Guidelines put forward a human-centric approach on AI and list 7 key requirements that AI systems should meet in order to be trustworthy. A revised document is expected in early 2020 after undergoing a piloting process.<br />
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Question remains, who guaranties that these universal fundamental axioms themselves will not become subject to evolutionary adaptation in situations when the survival of the fittest becomes imperative, e.g. in the battlefield.<br />
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Even the most salient thinker in this field, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom">Nick Bostrom</a>, in his ground-breaking work “<a href="https://books.google.de/books?id=7_H8AwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=Superintelligence&hl=de&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiFrsakjP_mAhVCJVAKHXWADU4Q6AEIKTAA#v=onepage&q=Superintelligence&f=false">Superintelligence</a>”, seems to rather sceptical about, if we could ever achieve to master the control problem. In his closing chapter he states:<br />
<br />
“<i>Pious words are not sufficient and will not by themselves make a dangerous technology safe: but where the mouth goeth the mind might gradually follow.</i><br />
<i>Before the prospect of an intelligence explosion, we humans are like small children playing with a bomb. Such is the mismatch between the power of our plaything and the immaturity of our conduct. </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Superintelligence is a challenge for which we are not ready now and will not be ready for a long time. </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>We have little idea when the detonation will occur, though if we hold the device to our ear, we can hear a faint ticking sound.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>For a child with an undetonated bomb in its hands, a sensible thing to do would be to put it down gently, quickly back out of the room, and contact the nearest adult. </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Yet what we have here is not one child but many, each with access to an independent trigger mechanism. The chances that we will all find the sense to put down the dangerous stuff seem almost negligible. </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Some little idiot is bound to press the ignite button just to see what happens.”</i><br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
4 Conclusion: no consensus at all</h2>
The conclusion is: There is no consensus at all. There are statements, beliefs, positions, no proof. So, whom to believe?<br />
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One is tempted to think of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T._S._Eliot">T. S. Eliot's</a> poem <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Waste_Land">The Waste Land</a>, reflecting the sobered-out worldview of those who had the luck of surviving the great carnage of WW I:<br />
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“<i>Son of man, you cannot say, or guess, for you know only a heap of broken images,</i> …”, <br />
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Or should we even come up with an opinion ourselves? How daring would that be? Hmmm, but let’s give it a try. <br />
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Algorithms are programmed by humans after all, so how can they ever surpass human intelligence or even come near to it? This is an often-heard argument. But is it a proof? Is it conclusive at all? <br />
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Well, we don’t even know. However, let’s assume for a moment that it will be possible. In this case we need to endow the machines with some built-in morality in order to avoid unethical behaviour, right? So, not surprisingly, the discussion on AI and morals gets some traction. Commonly asked questions comprise:<br />
<br />
<ol style="text-align: left;">
<li><i>Can machines advise us on moral decisions, when they are properly taught by humans</i>? - Yes, why not?</li>
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<li><i>Will they be able to discover moral principles implicitly like a deep learning chess computer</i>? - Well, yes, once the systems are capable to handle that kind of complexity and the sheer amount of data.</li>
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<li><i>Will they autonomously develop morals on their own and for their own home use</i>? - That’s the single important question, constantly denied by the majority of the researchers. To do so machines need consciousness (cogito ergo sum), which seems to them to be some divine gift, incomprehensible and unfathomable. Yet it might turn out that once machines can handle the complexity of human brains and beyond and are expected to decide and act autonomously (e.g. in space exploration or, sadly more likely, in the battle field down here on earth) consciousness and moral guidance will inevitably occur and will become a simple necessity for the "survival" of those intelligent robots.</li>
</ol>
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I maintained the personal luxury of expressing exactly the opposite opinion of Anabel Ternes von Hattburg: As with man-made machines our human brain on its most basic layer most probably also only is “<i>consisting of certain basic commands”. </i>Where then comes the consciousness from in our brains? Is it a divine endowment that has been graciously entrusted to us from above, and with which we have been inspired, given a soul?<br />
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Ok, if we try to invoke religious beliefs, we should rather stop any discussion here. Religion knows no discussion, no doubt, no open questions, just convictions and truths. <br />
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It might however well turn out that the creation of a soul, that magic act of creation turns out to be just an emergent effect of huge neuron collectives, a well-known phenomenon in complexity theory. In this model it would represent the upper layer of a multi-layered system driven by the necessity to come up with ultra-fast intuitive decisions in moments, when the mere survival is threatened. So will that magic “consciousness” in the end turn out as a necessary by-product emerging from sufficient complexity? Some esoteric <a href="https://www.artificial-intelligence.blog/news/when-god-jokes">thought experiments</a> may lead us to this conclusion.<br />
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Of course, neither of us can prove his / her thesis. In my case, I suspect, only the scenario becoming reality would create the necessary - and possibly bitter - evidence.<br />
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Given this context, I still wonder if machines can't get beyond that stage of "hard coded" ethical values and for the sake of short-term survival in a certain situation would be very well tempted to break that implemented moral code. <br />
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In this sense their evolution would resemble the path our human evolution took. My gut feeling tells me that it might have turned out to be an evolutionary advantage not to follow the moral imperatives under all circumstances. This evolutionary advantage might be claimed by machines in a highly competitive environment as well, especially under arms race conditions, which becomes more and more likely.<br />
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A Superintelligence emerging from such highly competitive environment would resemble our own species more that we may like.<br />
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Hopefully this stage is still far ahead.<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
5 What did we learn?</h2>
You might be bored of reading just another article praising the benefits of future AI applications, making the world a better place or warning of its dire consequences, turning the world, as we know it into hell for us humans – or maybe a mixture of both.<br />
<br />
There are tons of good arguments, exposing patterns of meta-developments being observed throughout history. Earlier predictions in most cases didn’t lead far. Counterforces were unleashed leading to a way guiding us out of the calamities and reaching even higher ground – however notably not without causing noticeable pain. <br />
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Predictions based on these facts, however may suffer from the same weakness as the linear predictions, which we rightly criticize – just on a higher level: There is no guarantee for a perpetuation of these past mechanisms in the future. We are far from understanding the complexity of the world we are living in. We are just acting, examining the outcome, draw conclusions, detect rules, laws and patterns and base our predictions on them. <br />
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Yes, I agree, whenever a perceived “game over” event occurs, a new game pops up as the as the embedding game of life’s nature is to invent new competing games following new rules. But there is no guarantee of “progress” at all. Future will happen. We need not to doubt that. Not necessarily however it will be a pleasant one. Possible scenarios span from a <a href="http://burgess-shale.rom.on.ca/en/science/origin/04-cambrian-explosion.php">Cambrian explosion</a> to a <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/prehistoric-world/permian-extinction/">Permian extinction</a> and still being part of the overall game. Progress is just the probably false promise of the narrowed world view of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanism">Humanism</a>.<br />
<br />
The still unanswered questions, which should be answered to create a basis for a consensus, are:<br />
<br />
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><b><i>Definitions</i></b> - What is emotional intelligence, creativity and social empathy?</li>
<br />
<li><b><i>Origin</i></b> - Do we agree that they originate from our brain?</li>
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<li><b><i>Primitives</i></b> - Can we agree that at the lowest organizational level our brain has only "programs consisting of certain commands" available?</li>
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<li><b><i>Complexity</i></b> - It is undisputed that our brain with its ~ 100 billion neurons is much more complex in structure and organization than any computer ever built before.</li>
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<li><b><i>Speed</i></b> - However, the brain with its clock rate of ~ 200 Hertz is also many times slower than even the simplest computer used today. </li>
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<li><b><i>Emergence</i></b> - Then can it not be that emotions in the end are only in the sense of complexity theory "emergent effects", which arise from this very complexity? </li>
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<li><b><i>Autonomy</i></b> - And isn’t it conceivable that such emotions are vital elements of autonomous but slow systems in order to make quick emotional decisions instead of having to wait a long time for analysis results to finally occur?</li>
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<li><b><i>Emotions</i></b> - If we pursue this line of thought further, is it not only conceivable, but possibly also necessary, to equip autonomous intelligent systems with emotions?</li>
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<li><b><i>Self-organization</i></b> - But perhaps they even form by themselves as a by-product and inevitable consequence of the self-organization of a highly complex intelligent system. </li>
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</ul>
Here we touch the age-old <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homunculus">homunculus</a> question, namely that with AI we could create a being that at some point will unfold a life of its own and detach itself from its creators. Just as the monster according to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frankenstein">novel by Mary Shelley</a> created by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Frankenstein">Victor Frankenstein</a> opens its eyes, looks around and begins its own tragic life. Or like <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanis%C5%82aw_Lem">Stanislaw Lem</a> has described this very entertainingly in his ironic short story about the "<a href="https://epdf.pub/die-waschmaschinentragdie.html">washing machine war</a>". Nowadays this topic is subject of discussion in a series of books on "<a href="https://www.google.com/search?tbm=bks&q=Superintelligence">Superintelligence</a>".<br />
<br />
The point is that most of these otherwise beautifully written articles have in common that you may occasionally find some threadbare spots in the fabric, where logic stops and dogma sets in. <br />
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No, I don’t agree with <a href="https://futurism.com/authors/danrobitzski">Dan Rubitzki</a>, who <a href="https://futurism.com/artificial-consciousness">wrote in June 2018</a> “<i>We can’t program a conscious robot with a soul if we can’t agree on what that means</i>.”<br />
<br />
Consciousness could well turn out to be just an <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/properties-emergent/">emergent property</a> of the several layers of an artificial intelligence, hence ‘novel’ and ‘irreducible’ with respect to them, an artefact of the <a href="http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Self-organization">self-organisation</a> emerging from the underlying complexity. However debatable this Gedankenexperiment may be, in this case consciousness might just emerge, it might happen to us as the sudden awakening of the machine – and we shouldn’t even call it “artificial”.<br />
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Yes, I agree with all AI experts: We are still light years away from such <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity">singularity</a>. Also, technological development may well hit unexpected roadblocks, which will take time and effort to remove or even result in another <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter">AI winter</a>. But no, I don’t think it’s impossible, nor even implausible.<br />
<br />
More voices on that can be heard in <a href="https://www.pewinternet.org/2018/12/10/artificial-intelligence-and-the-future-of-humans/">Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Humans</a>. Most experts here predict that the rise of artificial intelligence will make most people better off over the next decade. But still many have concerns about how advances in AI will affect what it means to be human, to be productive and to exercise free will.<br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
6 A final word</h2>
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand_Russell">Bertrand Russell</a> is quoted to have said “<i>The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt</i>.” If we apply this standard, Nick Bostrom qualifies for the few lucid minds, when he states in closing his book: “<i>We find ourselves in a thicket of strategic complexity, surrounded by a dense mist of uncertainty. Though many considerations have been discerned, their details and interrelationships remain unclear and iffy—and there might be other factors we have not even thought of yet. What are we to do in this predicament?”</i><br />
<i><br /></i><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=30383251" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a>One idea, which crossed my mind recently, has not yet been discussed widely. It might well be one of those ‘other factors we have not even thought of yet’ determining our future direction. Couldn’t it well be that a Super-AI, once created and enjoying an independent life, be the saviour, rather than the terminator of humanity? Saving Humanity from itself in the end? <br />
<br />
Some specially gifted humans usually only at the end of their lives, while summing up their life long experiences are endowed, with some insight, which we call wisdom. So why should it be beyond imagination that an artificial super-intelligence, after it has left all competition behind and won all battles, after it is the only one left and unchallenged, reaches a certain wisdom of old age and, very much like the overlords in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_C._Clarke">Arthur C. Clarke</a>s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Childhood%27s_End">Childhood's End</a>, orders the world in such a way that it will be able to live permanently in peace and prosperity - humanity and AI?<br />
<br />
Will this then result in AW (<a href="https://www.computer.org/csdl/magazine/co/2019/10/08848132/1dAq1H3HKU0">Artificial Wisdom</a>)?<br />
<br />
An elaboration on this exotic thought however deserves a publication on its own. So, you may stay tuned.</div>
</div>
Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-60360947901919798282019-07-24T20:00:00.000+02:002019-08-06T17:07:54.335+02:00Unrest in the Pearl River Delta<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Hong Kong has always been a focal point of international world affairs, where the forces of the world powers met as if bundled through a burning glass - and occasionally created truly hot situations.
It is therefore not only of local interest, that the current chaotic situation in Hong Kong is becoming increasingly worse since two months.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The violence that has been reported to us in the media in recent weeks has given rise to great concern around the world. It is not only the governments of Hong Kong and China that are concerned. International organizations are also paying great attention to the tense situation in Hong Kong.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As Hong Kong is a well-known and important international financial and trade center, the current chaotic situation is expected to have a number of negative effects on the lives of local residents and their economies.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Apparently, no one expected such a development.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Protests however, are nothing new in Hong Kong. There's a rich history of dissent in Hong Kong, stretching back further even than past 1997, when Britain returned Hong Kong after more than a century of colonial rule to the PRC.</span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">E.g. in 1966, demonstrations broke out after the Star Ferry Company decided to increase its fares. The protests escalated into riots. The British declared full curfew and sent hundreds of troops to the streets.<br /></span> </li>
<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In 2003 there were large protests, taking up to 500,000 people to the streets. In effect a controversial security bill was eventually scrapped.<br /></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As a 3rd and final example in 2014 demonstrations, known as the umbrella movement, took place over several weeks and saw Hong Kongers demand the right to elect their own leader.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In addition, there were annual marches for universal suffrage - as well as memorials to the Tiananmen Square crackdown.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So, the fact that protests have now returned is not necessarily surprising.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But why have they grown so powerful this time? Why did the initially peaceful protests turn so violent finally? Why do they draw this immense worldwide attention?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Well, “<i>On the surface, these protests are about plans that would allow extradition from Hong Kong to mainland China. But this is not all happening in a vacuum. There's a lot of important context - some of it stretching back decades.</i>” writes the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-48607723" target="_blank">BBC</a>, without elaborating on the whole context too much.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Of course one can view the protests, which turned to riots, as the genuine, though derailed expression of a concerned youth, fearing that the civil liberties, they enjoy and which are unbeknownst to the rest of Mainland China, may come to an untimely end – even before the 50 years of “one country, two systems” situation will terminate anyway in 2047.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">On the other hand, geopolitical considerations may lead to the impression that there could be benefiters form the mere unrest, completely different from the directly involved parties. Not should we forget, that we witness of the beginning of a fierce and intensifying <a href="https://www.diplomatic-council.org/news-and-events/news/us-vs-china-dc-exec-club-june-28" target="_blank">struggle for regional hegemony</a> between China and the US. It would by far not be the first time that apparently spontaneous popular uprisings have been instigated, carefully nurtured and supported by covert actions of shady actors from the secret service world.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Likewise, the equally spontaneously and uncoordinatedly looking counteractions can be seen in the same dim light too, with differing probable forces in the background however.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Whatever explanation we might lean to, in this tense and highly competitive geopolitical situation both scenarios enjoy some credibility. Most probable a blend of both has to be taken into serious consideration. And it is this unpleasant reason, which makes the current situation so dangerous far beyond the local context.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">We therefore would like to express its concerns on recent affairs in Hong Kong, combined with the hope that the heated sentiments can be soothed as soon as possible.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">We maintain the hope and some confidence that the Hong Kong government will find a right path and take action in order to bring back peace to this busy metropole in the pearl river delta, as well as address the root causes of the current upheaval.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In our opinion the government should expand the scope of public consultation at different levels with no undue delay. This dialogue ought to take public opinion into consideration in the policy formulation process, so that social conflicts are addressed early.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Meanwhile, we would like to express our hope that the world powers concerned will grant the disputing parties sufficient maneuvering room and preparation time to reach a mutually agreeable solution for their likewise mutual benefit, meaning that they will refrain from open or covert intervention into these local events.
</span></div>
Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-71037363828930260012019-06-20T22:36:00.000+02:002019-06-21T01:01:09.687+02:00G2 – US vs. China<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<h1 style="font-weight: normal;">1 Intro</h1>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">This years topics of the DC Executive Club look attractive again. They are very much in line with the mission of the DC. They promise practical hands-on advice (How to ...) on how a local company can operate internationally.</div>
<ul style="font-weight: normal;">
<li>Franck Mathot on “Market Intelligence: Exploring and understanding markets”,</li>
<li>Thomas Gronenthal on “Finding international customers via social media”,</li>
<li>Melanie Prinz on “International Logistics”</li>
<li>RA Andreas Neumann & Daniel McKee on “Business in the USA, that's how it works” and</li>
<li>Irene Ho on “Business opportunities in Asia”</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">That's good.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">However, we may be currently living in a phase of major upheaval these days. Some observers might look at it as minor hick-ups, just a big show or the “<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-china-break-europe-by-joschka-fischer-2019-06"><i>End of the world as we know it</i></a>”, like former German Minister for foreign affairs recently called it.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">In case we tend to lean towards the more extreme scenario, it could well mean that what was understood to be good practice yesterday may no longer be applicable tomorrow.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">The issue I am talking about surely is obvious to all of us: the trade conflict between the USA and China, which has the potential of expanding into a veritable second "cold war". At least the signs are increasing.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">But let me first set the scene in order to make clear, which force field we are acting in. Once this is done, we have to ask what consequences this development may have for internationally operating companies.</div>
<h1 style="font-weight: normal;">2. Drama - The US vs. China trade war</h1>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Before our very eyes a veritable drama is unfolding. It didn’t begin completely unexpectedly. And it started as a minor tit-for-tat exchange of blows:</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">As the graph of the<a href="https://economics.rabobank.com/globalassets/2018/11-november/sp-tradewar/rabobank2018-trade-war-infographic-en.pdf">Rabobank</a> shows …</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: normal; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=30383251" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=30383251" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=30383251" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=30383251" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=30383251" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=30383251" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=30383251" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=30383251" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rGtunHCyeQc/XQvdJCu1HRI/AAAAAAAAsKI/Sd8EycBwUawjDtosQPnU37KSAXyut13OQCLcBGAs/s1600/image002.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="677" data-original-width="1204" height="354" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rGtunHCyeQc/XQvdJCu1HRI/AAAAAAAAsKI/Sd8EycBwUawjDtosQPnU37KSAXyut13OQCLcBGAs/s640/image002.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<ul style="font-weight: normal;">
<li>In March 2018 the US levied tariffs on steel (25%) and aluminium (19%)</li>
<li>In April 2018 China responded with tariffs on aluminium, meat, fruit, and wine.</li>
<li>In July 2018 the US implements tariffs on Chinese good worth 50 bn USD in 2 tranches: 34 bn & 16 bn mainly on electrotechnical goods.</li>
<li>Nearly simultaneously China retaliates with the same amount on soybean, SUV’s an airplane parts.</li>
<li>In September 2018 the US imposes tariffs of 10% on another 200 bn. worth of goods (electrotechnical products, rice, textiles, …)</li>
<li>China immediately retaliates with 5% or 10% on goods worth 60 bn. </li>
<li>In July the US raises tariffs von 10% to 25% for goods worth 200 bn. USD.</li>
<li>China at the same time answers with 25% on goods worth 60 bn. USD</li>
<li>In January 2019 the US another levied a lump of goods worth 200 bn. USD is with 25%</li>
<li>This was responded by China with 25% on goods worth 60 bn.</li>
<li>Recently these were followed by 25% on another 200 bn worth Chinese goods.</li>
<li>The threat is to quickly follow with 300 bn. worth goods under the same conditions, if Xi Jinping <a href="https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1138795/trump-news-us-china-trade-war-tariffs-g-20-summit-xi-jinping">fails to attend</a> G-20</li>
<li>Currently 35-40% of all imports from China are levied with hefty tariffs.</li>
<li>The threat is out to apply this procedure to the other 60% as well and then even gradually raise the tariffs.</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">So, the economic struggle between the two heavyweights is in full swing.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">How will it go on?</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">How will it end?</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Will it ever come to an end?</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Surprisingly China sanctions, unlike measures against Mexico or Canada, enjoy bi-partisan support in the US. So, there must be more to it than just the crazy idea of an exceptional political madman. Opinion Columnist, Thomas L. Friedman of the New York Times, widely considered as the voice of “liberal America”,<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/21/opinion/china-trump-trade.html">quoted</a> an unknown business man (or perhaps himself): “<i>Donald Trump is not the American president America deserves, but he sure is the American president China deserves</i>.” And “<i>It took a human wrecking ball to get China’s attention</i>.”</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Interestingly financial markets so far seem not to be frightened the least. And as <a href="https://www.gisreportsonline.com/professor-enrico-colombatto,2,expert.html">Enrico Colombatto</a> <a href="https://www.gisreportsonline.com/the-economics-of-a-trade-crisis,economy,2894.html">summarizes</a>: “<i>The markets may be right in assuming that the U.S.-China trade crisis is only temporary. They may also be right in assuming that the crisis’ impact on global commerce will remain limited. If these assumptions are wrong, however, the resultant uncertainty could hurt global business</i>”</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">These commentators all are considered as experts in this field, I suppose rightfully so. But - hmmm - are they really on the right track with their proposed measures, as they were with their, a bit one-sided, diagnostics?</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Meanwhile optimism is fading that this conflict between the two major world powers will come to a resolution any time soon.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Observers close to either of the warring parties increasingly come to the conclusion that the U.S.-China Trade War <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2019/06/12/the-us-china-trade-war-could-drag-on-for-a-long-time/#6e4c0d901dd6">Could Drag On</a> For A Long Time still.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">So, it is worth digging a bit deeper.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Before going on, one caveat: I am dealing here with a very controversial topics which will very likely draw heated emotion laden comments from either side of the frontier. Also finding reliable statistical data about the Chinese economy is notoriously difficult or, to be more precise, next to impossible. I therefore mainly restrict myself to asking questions and trying to extract answers from experts’ analyses of the scene. Their analyses of course and even the experts’ selection are not to be expected unbiased as well. So, I can only try my very best.</div>
<h1 style="font-weight: normal;">3 Megatrends - The end of globalisation?</h1>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Will this spell the end of globalisation?</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">In June 2019 McKinsey & Company published the article “<a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/globalizations-next-chapter">Globalization’s next chapter</a>” stating that Globalization in the sense of off-shoring manufacturing indeed is in retreat since the mid 2000s. And it did not recover after the financial crisis.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Internationally spanning value chains haven’t disappeared however, but have rather morphed into a different phenomenon.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Increasingly services are traded rather than goods. And trade relations spanning the globe are increasingly replaced by intraregional trade.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Underlying it all is the impact of automation on low-skill jobs—which will ultimately increase the need for innovation in operations, manufacturing, and supply chains.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Compelling, yet not proven is the assumption that the availability of cheap labour for about 30 to 40 years, aka China effect, caused general automation efforts to pause. Under the new auspices with global value chains increasingly being disrupted, ageing populations in some parts of the world, and rising wages in China, full-scale automation of manufacturing processes may have a furious come-back.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">So true globalisation anyway is a thing of the past.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Hefty tariffs arbitrarily levied “over-night” will strongly enforce this anyway ongoing process. Even if taken back after some agreement has been reached, they will not strengthen confidence in the reliability and stability of the prevailing economic conditions. Rather regional self-reliance, completely domestic value chains and strategic autarky are on the rise.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<h1 style="font-weight: normal;">4 Misconceptions – In the China trap?</h1>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Recent history of the West’s relationship with China is a story of repeated misunderstandings, misconceptions and outright beginner errors. With hindsight it is hard to understand, how governments, investors and the whole corporate world could have sleepwalked into an adventure, which in most cases turned out to become a disaster.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">A quote attributed to Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov, better known by his alias Lenin, comes to mind, when re-assessing this corporate frenzy: “<i>When it comes time to hang the capitalists, they will vie with each other for the rope contract</i>.” China however wasn’t that blunt, but up to today acted smartly in most cases.</div>
<h2 style="font-weight: normal;">4.1 The China dream – the illusion of 400 million customers</h2>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Since more than 80 years businesses around the globe with growing appetite eyed Chinas untapped market. In the 1937,<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Crow">Carl Crow</a>, a Missouri-born businessman, wrote his most popular work “<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3846294-400-million-customers">400 Million Customers</a>”, triggering an unprecedented race for the best starting positions in the conquest of this apparently so attractive, huge market.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">As <a href="https://joestudwell.com/about/">Joe Studwell</a> impressively describes in his brilliantly crafted book "<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/643571.The_China_Dream">The China Dream</a>", this competition often overruled all the rules of commercial reason that had been painfully acquired over decades before. Neither the then low purchasing power of the Chinese population, even outright lack of demand, nor the restrictive regulations, which only allowed joint ventures, put the global crowd of investors off in the long term. China didn't even have to lure Western investors into the trap. They were already blinded by their dreamed-up returns and were seemingly willing to fall into the trap on their own.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Joe Studwell argues that since the days of Marco Polo, Western nations have seen the vast population of the Middle Kingdom as a fantastic opportunity for expanding trade, investing time and resources again and again in the hope to develop it, only to see, century after century, its economy crash and their dreams turn to dust. It only has to be added that Studwell expects another huge genuinely Chinese crash to occur rather soon.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">In 2005 <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_L._McGregor">James McGregor</a> too in “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/One-Billion-Customers-Lessons-Business/dp/074325841X/ref=sr_1_1">One Billion Customers</a>” explains, that business in China was never quite what it seemed. Even hard-nosed US businessmen were not always up to the harsh conditions of Chinas dog-eat-dog business climate. Many foreign business executives were left with their pockets turned inside out in the end.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">China is not alone playing this game either. The success stories of other Asian tiger states, as well as Japan, have also begun with well-shielded domestic markets, protected by high tariff barriers and state control and promotion of exports, as Joe Studwell lucidly describes his recommendable work "<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/16144575-how-asia-works">How Asia works</a>".</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">So, we don't have to be as surprised as we pretend to be. We should have known long ago by what rules China intended or even had to play.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<h2 style="font-weight: normal;">4.2 Why China failed to fail; a lesson for the West</h2>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/china-rules.html">NY Times wrote</a> on 2018-11-18: “<i>China now leads the world in the number of homeowners, internet users, college graduates and, by some counts, billionaires. Extreme poverty has fallen to less than 1 percent. An isolated, impoverished backwater has evolved into the most significant rival to the United States.</i></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><i>During this time, eight U.S. presidents assumed, or hoped, that China would eventually bend to what were considered the established rules of modernization: Prosperity would fuel popular demands for political freedom and bring China into the fold of democratic nations. Or the Chinese economy would falter under the weight of authoritarian rule and bureaucratic rot.</i></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><i>But neither happened. Instead, China’s communist leaders have defied expectations again and again. They embraced capitalism even as they continued to call themselves Marxists. They used repression to maintain power but without stifling entrepreneurship or innovation. Surrounded by foes and rivals, they avoided war, with one brief exception, even as they fanned nationalist sentiment at home. And they presided over 40 years of uninterrupted growth, often with unorthodox policies the textbooks said would fail</i>.”</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Obviously there economic and societal truths beyond established business school orthodoxies.</div>
<h2 style="font-weight: normal;">4.3 Market vs. Strategy – who will prevail?</h2>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Recently James <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Hlk11709295">McGregor</a> <a href="http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/china-expert-james-mcgregor-on-trumps-haphazard-trade-war.html?">stated in an interview</a>:</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><i>Xi, a number of months ago, gave a speech in which he said that China has a 15-year long march to take on the United States and overcome. That’s how they’re thinking: “How do we really work together to move ahead because of this?” Meanwhile, leaders in the United States are yelling at each other on cable news every day.</i></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><i>China is always looking for strategy and logic, and Trump never gets near either of those things</i>.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">As in global trade market forces favour the incumbents, those being strong enough to survive the lessons to be learnt and the cut-throat international competition, which is rarely purely played by the <a href="https://www.wto.org/">WTO</a> textbook rules, some national champion nursery has to be set up first. Here those future contenders need to be nursed and raised carefully before releasing them into the wild of a global competition.</div>
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<div style="font-weight: normal;">To succeed it needs long-term planning, strategies on state-level, economic regions, separated enough to serve as economic (like the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenzhen_Special_Economic_Zone">Shenzhen Special Economic Zone</a>) or political (like Hongkong) testbeds, and permanent adaptation. Obviously, it is less about the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump:_The_Art_of_the_Deal">Art of the Deal</a>, economic short-termisn and eying the next favourable election outcome.</div>
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<div style="font-weight: normal;">To <a href="http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/china-expert-james-mcgregor-on-trumps-haphazard-trade-war.html?">refer</a> to McGregor again, to outcompete China again the US would need to treat this situation like a Sputnik moment, otherwise China will.</div>
<h2 style="font-weight: normal;">4.4 The ‘awakening’ – BRI & Made in China 2015</h2>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">McGregor recently said that China had America in a really good position - and they overreached.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the launch of both the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, infrastructure development and investment initiatives that would stretch from East Asia to Europe. The project, eventually termed the Belt and Road Initiative (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative">BRI</a>) but sometimes known as the New Silk Road, is one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects ever conceived. It refers to the original Silk Road, which connected Europe to Asia centuries ago, enriching traders from the Atlantic to the Pacific.</div>
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<div style="font-weight: normal;">China’s Belt and Road Initiative could have welcomed as the most ambitious infrastructure investment effort in history, perhaps next to the great wall of China. But it also raised fears it could have the potential to rearrange the global balance of power.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Since the investments in China's neighbouring countries are to be financed largely through generous lending, the participating countries have to answer the question of profitability. Some of them fear falling into a debt trap. Ironically China here once again is proving to be an erudite student of the USA – however, and this still makes a difference, without taking recourse to violence as a means of last resort when “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/New-Confessions-Economic-Hit-Man/dp/1626566747">convincing</a>” the participants.</div>
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<div style="font-weight: normal;">The defining moment however, when the tide turned, might have been the proclamation of Chinas <a href="http://english.gov.cn/policies/latest_releases/2015/05/19/content_281475110703534.htm" target="_blank" title="government’s ten year plan">government’s ten year plan</a>. It was released in 2015 titled “Made in China 2025” setting the goal to update China’s manufacturing base by rapidly developing ten high-tech industries. Chief among these are electric cars and other new energy vehicles, next-generation information technology (IT) and telecommunications, and advanced robotics and artificial intelligence.</div>
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<div style="font-weight: normal;">Other major sectors include agricultural technology; aerospace engineering; new synthetic materials; advanced electrical equipment; emerging bio-medicine; high-end rail infrastructure; and high-tech maritime engineering.</div>
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<div style="font-weight: normal;">Obviously, these plans were eye-opening as the US suspects that the policy relies on discriminatory treatment of foreign investment, forced technology transfers, intellectual property theft, and cyber espionage.</div>
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<div style="font-weight: normal;">The U.S. should adopt a “<i>wake up, grow up, compete with China</i>” approach, he continues. And goes on: “<i>It’s going to be a pretty hard proposition to make China change its system. To be really frank, the Chinese system is working for China better than the American system is working for America. And that’s a real threat, we’ve got to make our system work better</i>.“</div>
<h1 style="font-weight: normal;">5 Hegemony - The underlying fabric</h1>
<h2 style="font-weight: normal;">5.1 Is Chinas rise inevitable?</h2>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">With the exception of the last 200 years Chinas economy was the <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/2000-years-economic-history-one-chart/">largest in the world</a>. The major shift originated with the industrialisation of western countries, boosting their capabilities by multitudes. As consequence of this relative weakening of the Middle Kingdom, China quickly became an easy prey of the Western colonial powers and Japan.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">During the last 40 years however, the country was recovering to a formidable size and strength at a breath-taking speed. Meanwhile the International Monetary Fund last year proclaimed China could become the world’s <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/07/25/na072618-chinas-economic-outlook-in-six-charts">largest economy by 2030</a>.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Likewise, in 2018 Economists at HSBC Holdings Plc. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-25/hsbc-sees-china-economy-set-to-pass-u-s-as-number-one-by-2030">projected</a> China is on course to be the world’s biggest economy by 2030. The nation’s gross domestic product will stand at $26 trillion in 2030, while U.S. GDP will rise to $25.2 trillion, according to the HSBC projection.</div>
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<div style="font-weight: normal;">According the world Bank the yearly <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.pcap.cd">per capita income</a> in China (2017) was still 8,827.0 USD and at the same time 59,927.9 USD in the US, which is 6 to 7-fold. Hence China reaches just 15% of the US level. However, at the same time <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sp.pop.totl">Chinas population</a> ranged slightly below 1.4 bn and the of US hovering around 325 million. So, China has about 4.3 times the population of the US, which is to be considered a wealth as well as a burden at the same time.</div>
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<div style="font-weight: normal;">Simple projection leads hence to the insight that those predictions are quite straightforward. With this expectation in sight however counter forces seem to be awakening. E.g. in an interview with Fox News, released on 19 May 2019, US president Donald Trump said he believes China’s intention is to “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-20/trump-vows-china-s-economy-won-t-surpass-u-s-on-his-watch">replace the US as the superpower</a>” but this will not happen under his watch.</div>
<h2 style="font-weight: normal;">5.2 Power politics scenarios</h2>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">John Mearsheimer in his classic treatise “<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/115612.John_J_Mearsheimer">The tragedy of great power politics</a>” on the behaviour of great powers takes a penetrating look at the question likely to dominate the international relations in the 21<sup>st</sup> century: “Can China rise peacefully?”</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Following the concept of power politics Mearsheimer recognises no world hegemon and just one regional hegemon: The USA. According to the logic of the concept and supported by a rich collection of historical examples, he predicts that the US, determined to remain the world’s sole regional hegemon, will go to great lengths to contain China, including taking recourse to violence. China on the other side will attempt to dominate Asia as the best survival strategy in this concept is to become a regional hegemon like the United States in the Western Hemisphere and to make sure that no other hegemon emerges elsewhere.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">This is exactly what we are most likely going to experience throughout the next two decades. Nevertheless, the theory’s weakness lies in the assumption that all actors will be driven by relentless yet stone-cold sober rationality. We have learnt from contemporary <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow">decision theory</a>, that this cannot be expected in many cases.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">We might also be tempted to seek comfort in the fact that, contrary to all logical inevitabilities, the first "Cold War" never turned into a hot war. Mearsheimer closes his considerations, admitting that he didn’t paint a pretty picture of what is likely to happen, but rather a downright depressing one. In closing he expresses his hope that Chinas rise may contradict his grim picture and proves his predictions wrong.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">And indeed, it would not be the first time that the middle kingdom surprises western scholars and politicians.</div>
<h2 style="font-weight: normal;">5.3 Hegemony – learning from the US</h2>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">We need to acknowledge that during the decades of American hegemony, the United States have developed a finely balanced set of tools to ensure its rule effectively, but mostly well camouflaged. Among all these activities short of war were covert intervention, client elites, psychological torture, worldwide surveillance, cyberwar, space competition, trade pacts, and military alliances.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">It is safe to expect that China will become, or is already, an avid student of the hegemonial measures of the USA. In terms of generous loans to Third World countries for development projects and especially in the context of the BRI, China has proven to play no less skilful on the instruments of power.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Also we could expect China to develop and apply its own version of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Monroe-Doctrine">Monroe Doctrine</a>.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Besides all speculation one lesson can be taken for sure, regardless how the current trade war may turn out, there is a much stronger and much more compelling undercurrent to the contenders’ visible actions – the tragedy of power politics.</div>
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<h1 style="font-weight: normal;">6 Consequences - The dichotomy of the world</h1>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Being a global think tank, the DC feels compelled to come up with an assessment of the situation in advance and point out the possible consequences for globally operating companies as well as for entire states, at least for the majority of them.</div>
<h2 style="font-weight: normal;">6.1 Manufacturers fleeing China</h2>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">The trade war is already pushing <a href="https://qz.com/1641598/trumps-trade-war-with-china-is-reshaping-global-trade/">businesses out of China</a> - and it could be permanent. However, this trend begun before these dramatic events. The China impact on the world economy lasted about 30 to 40 years. During that period, driven by cheap labour costs and a huge potential of hard-working labourers to tap on, China became the manufacturing powerhouse.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">As wages in China now rise and discussion on <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2019/05/11/china-should-get-rid-of-9-9-6/">abandoning the '9-9<b>-</b>6</a>' working habits signal different expectations, the window for this business model is about to close anyway. While China falls victim to its own success and it at a breath-taking speed crosses the line separating an industrialising country from a industrialised one, economic growth loses steam. Growth rates, which had been in the two-digit range for decades return to moderate and more sustainable ranges. Looking for cheap labour Chinese businesses themselves look for alternatives. So, widely unnoticed until recently now Africa becomes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQV_DKQkT8o">China’s new China</a>. Sino-US-trade war is just accelerating this development.</div>
<h2 style="font-weight: normal;">6.2 No losing face</h2>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">China will certainly be ready to engage in compromises as long it represents the least ugly choice to make. However, there will be a red line the country will never cross: agreeing to a humiliating trade pact. Losing face will definitely never be an option. Too deeply engraved into the collective consciousness is the haunting memory of Chinas great humiliation by the great colonial western powers, the plundering of its resources, the opium war. A president driven by predator instincts, like the current Donald Trump is not very likely to respect the Chinese people’s national pride but rather will try to kick them publicly.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Strategic thinking with history in mind clashes here head-to-head with deal making and quarterly reporting cycles.</div>
<h2 style="font-weight: normal;">6.3 Choosing sides</h2>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Most probably it is the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/11/trump-trying-to-murder-huawei-instead-of-ban-us-china-group-head.html">Huawei story</a>, which tells us, what is about to come. Huawei is certainly one of Chinas flagships when it comes to advanced technology. In order to contain the companies’ advance and / or to regain technological leadership in each important segment, the US threatens each one doing business with Huawei with severe consequences, as well as it discourages them in taking part in Chinas “Road and Belt” Initiative. By implementing toughest sanctions on China’s Huawei and declaring a national emergency on information security, the Trump administration made it clear that they are seeking to thwart ‘Made in 2025’, a blueprint for China’s developmental plans to become a manufacturing powerhouse with an emphasis on high-tech sectors.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">The consequences, this development may have for internationally operating companies are pretty obvious. Just as the US, with its unilateral boycott of Iran, is forcing the world to do without a previously important trading partner, so the trade conflict in this much bigger case may lead to a division of the world into two spheres.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Indeed, we are likely to experience a division of the world into spheres of interest - just as we did during the Cold War. But this time it is by no means certain who will be the winner. The losers, on the other hand, can already been determined. It will be the smaller countries that have not been geared to one of the major economic blocs.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">This time, however, we dwarf states (the EU is not to be taken serious here) will have to choose one side - the USA or China. For countries like Pakistan with its CPEC as the flagship project of Chinas $1-trillion global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or Singapore, whose Lee Kuan Yew’s advice likewise sought by Chinas Den Xiao Ping as by Henry Kissinger from the US this, will be almost impossible.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Germany like many other countries, including several European states, will then have to do without important markets - if the scenario does really materialise. This will mean serious losses of prosperity for entire regions.</div>
<h2 style="font-weight: normal;">6.4 China striking back</h2>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Considering that China ran a trade surplus of $420 billion with the United States last year, it is obvious that it can’t come close to matching the United States in terms of tit-for-tat tariffs.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">But it does have other arrows in its quiver. Expert commentary and internet speculation have focused on <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/06/13/china-is-bluffing-in-the-trade-war/">three</a>:</div>
<ol style="font-weight: normal;">
<li>an embargo on imports of soybeans from the United States,</li>
<li>an embargo on exports of rare earth metals to the United States, and</li>
<li>the diversification of China’s currency reserves away from the dollar.</li>
</ol>
<h1 style="font-weight: normal;">7 Conclusion</h1>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Although there is still a faint possibility that Trump and Xi will meet for talks during the G20 summit on June 28-29 in Osaka, we should be prepared to face the facts.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">The damage is done. It can’t be undone anymore.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">We most probably will experience the beginning of a total segregation of trade, technological development and all other economic activities including such unsuspicious activities like tourism.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">According to an analysis by <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/united-states-china-cold-war-deglobalization-by-nouriel-roubini-2019-05">Nouriel Roubini</a> a full-scale cold war thus could trigger a new stage of de-globalization, or at least a division of the global economy into two incompatible economic blocs.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">The global consequences of a Sino-American cold war would be even more severe than those of the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union. Whereas the Soviet Union was a declining power with a failing economic model, China will soon become the world’s largest economy, and will continue to grow from there.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Moreover, the US and the Soviet Union traded very little with each other, whereas China is fully integrated in the global trading and investment system, and deeply intertwined with the US, in particular.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">What started as a trade war now threatens to escalate into a permanent state of mutual animosity. This is reflected in the US Security Strategy, which deems China a strategic “competitor” that should be contained on all fronts.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">In this balkanized world, China and the US will both expect all other countries to pick a side. Their governments however are likely to try to thread the needle of maintaining good economic ties with both. After all, many US allies now do more business (in terms of trade and investment) with China than they do with America. Some of them may well be squeezed to an untimely death.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">Authors, like Harvard University’s <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/graham-allison">Graham Allison</a> even recognise the trade war as an inevitable pretext of a situation where the two contenders are <a href="https://www.hmhbooks.com/shop/books/Destined-for-War/9781328915382">destined for war</a>. Others like <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/87928.Alfred_W_McCoy">Alfred W. McCoy</a> in “In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of US Global Power”at least allow for 5 different scenarios by which the American century may prematurely end around 2026 to give way for some kind of Chinese century.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">In fact I would like to agree with our former Minister of foreign affairs, Mr. Joschka Fischer, who stated in his Jun 3, 2019 post: From now on, the US will put might over market, as the message from the US is clear: technology and software exports are no longer just a matter of business; they are about power.</div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></div>
<div style="font-weight: normal;">It will spell <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-china-break-europe-by-joschka-fischer-2019-06">“The End of the World As We Know It</a>”.</div>
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Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-62941271706188138682019-06-11T17:16:00.000+02:002019-06-11T17:46:38.881+02:00Die Generation "No Future"<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Alte Klagen</span></h2>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">"<i>Die Kinder von heute lieben Luxus; sie haben schlechte Manieren, sie missachten die Autorität; sie haben keinen Respekt mehr gegenüber den Alten und hängen lieber herum statt tätig zu sein. Die Kinder von heute sind Tyrannen, nicht mehr die Diener ihrer Haushalte. …”</i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Diese Worte werden Sokrates (469-399 v. Chr.) <a href="https://www.bartleby.com/73/195.html">zugeschrieben</a>. Seither, und vermutlich sogar beginnend schon seit vor dieser Zeit, nehmen die Klagen über den gefühlten moralischen Verfall der jeweiligen zeitgenössischen Jugend kein Ende.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Simple Logik legt allerdings nahe, dass der moralische Wert - wie auch immer er im Kontext der jeweiligen Periode definiert worden sein mag - nicht über 100 Generationen hinweg ständig abgenommen haben kann. Inzwischen wären wir alle zu asozialen Kretins geworden. Vielmehr scheinen die Alten, die sich da beschweren, mit ihrer subjektiven Wahrnehmung völlig falsch zu liegen. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Zumindest scheinen sie vergessen zu haben, dass sie selbst einmal jung waren und voller Ideale, Wünsche - und Unsinn.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Woher nehmen sie sich überhaupt das Recht, sich auf diese Weise zu beschweren? Kann man die jetzige ältere Generation, oder die Generationen davor, wirklich als leuchtendes Vorbild nehmen, dem junge Männer und Frauen folgen sollten?</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Eine nähere Betrachtung liefert vielmehr ein verheerendes Bild. Selbst wenn wir die starken Männer, die auf der ganzen Welt auf dem Vormarsch sind, beiseitelassen. Auch wenn wir nicht berücksichtigen, dass Retro-Politik oder gar Paläopolitik selbst in einigen großen westlichen Ländern das politische Bild beherrscht. Nehmen wir zum Beispiel ein europäisches Land wie Deutschland, das international in jeder Hinsicht als moderat angesehen wird, oder Frankreich, das vorgeblich versucht, einen Neustart zu wagen. Nehmen wir Schweden, Kanada - nicht die USA. Arbeiten ihre Regierungen wirklich im Sinne des langfristigen Erhalts menschlichen Lebens auf diesem Planeten?</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Lassen Sie es mich offen sagen: Ich bezweifle das. Hauptantrieb der Verantwortlichen ist vielmehr ihre Wiederwahl (in Demokratien) oder der Machterhalt unter allen Umständen an (unter autoritären Regimes). Ich werde diesen Abschnitt kurzhalten, da ich bereits zuvor an <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/04/too-late-we-are-too-many-already-daily.html">anderer Stelle</a> über diese grundlegenden Fehler im politischen System nachgedacht habe. Vielleicht ist es ihnen auch gar nicht möglich, anders zu handeln. In der Konsequenz sind ihre Handlungen jedoch weit davon entfernt, verantwortungsbewusst zu sein.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Sie handeln, als hätten sie keine Kinder, keine Enkelkinder, keine Zukunft. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Zumindest scheinen sie ihnen egal zu sein. Sie opfern die Zukunft der Menschheit rücksichtslos für ihre kurzfristigen Gewinne in der Gegenwart. Für sie kann es immer noch gut funktionieren. Es sind die kommenden Generationen, die dafür einen schrecklichen Preis zahlen müssen. </span></span><br />
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</h1>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Nachweise gefällig?</span></h2>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Da es ausreichend Beweise dafür gibt, dass die Party einmal zu Ende gehen wird, beschränke ich die Anzahl der Indikatoren für drohende Katastrophen willkürlich auf nur sieben...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">1. Überbevölkerung</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Die aktuelle Weltbevölkerung im April 2019 überschritt knapp die 7,7-Milliarden-Marke. Bis zur Zeit Napoleons gab es auf der Erde weniger als 1 Milliarde Menschen gleichzeitig. Seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg haben wir alle 12-15 Jahre eine Milliarde Menschen zur Weltbevölkerung hinzugefügt. Unsere Bevölkerung ist heute mehr als doppelt so groß wie 1970. Die Weltbevölkerung wächst derzeit um mehr als 80 Millionen pro Jahr. Die Geburtenrate, die mehr als <a href="http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/">doppelt so hoch</a> ist wie die Sterblichkeitsrate, wenn wir nichts unternehmen, wird sie höchstwahrscheinlich für den Rest dieses Jahrhunderts weiter steigen. Es wird erwartet, dass sich die Wachstumsrate innerhalb weniger Generationen abflachen wird, was zu einer Sättigung der gesamten Weltbevölkerung bei etwa 10 Milliarden bis 2050 führt. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Angesichts unseres aktuellen technologischen Standes, unserer Ambitionen und sogar nur unserer physischen Bedürfnisse erscheint es zweifelhaft, dass die Menschheit an dieser Stelle eine langfristig nachhaltige Existenz aufrechterhalten kann. Vielleicht sind wir <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/04/too-late-we-are-too-many-already-daily.html">schon zu viele</a>.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">2. Das sechste Artensterben</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Paläontologen haben entdeckt, dass es im Laufe der Erdgeschichte (mindestens) <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/palaeontology/big-five-extinctions">fünf Massensterben</a> gegeben hat, die große Teile des gesamten Lebens auf diesem Planeten vernichtet hatten. So gingen am Ende der geologischen Perioden …</span><br />
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<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Ordovizium, vor 444 Millionen Jahren, 86%,</span></li>
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<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Devon, vor 375 Millionen Jahren, 75%,</span></li>
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<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Perm, vor 251 Millionen Jahren, 96%,</span></li>
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<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Trias, vor 200 Millionen Jahren, 80%, und</span></li>
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<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Kreide, vor 66 Millionen Jahren, 76% </span></li>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">… aller Arten verloren. Das sechste Aussterben, diesmal jedoch von Menschenhand, ist nun in vollem Gange. Laut dem <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/global-environment-outlook-6">Global Environment Outlook 6</a> der Vereinten Nationen ist seit 1970 die Wirbeltierpopulation um rund 60 % zurückgegangen. Derzeit sind zwischen 25% und 42 % der wirbellosen Tiere, wie z.B. Insekten, vom Aussterben bedroht. Das Verschwinden von Insekten stellt eine besondere Bedrohung für die Nahrungsmittelerzeugung dar. Aber dies ist nicht die einzige Bedrohung, die sich direkt auf die menschliche Nahrungsversorgung auswirkt: Ein Drittel der Landfläche des Planeten gehört heute zur Kategorie "degradierte Böden"; in den letzten 50 Jahren sind 40 % der Feuchtgebiete der Welt verschwunden. Erwärmung und Überfischung gefährden die Lebensgrundlage von über drei Milliarden Menschen, die auf Fisch als wichtigste Nahrungsquelle angewiesen sind. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So ist wahrscheinlich auch die eher unangenehme Perspektive eines Planeten, dessen Biomasse hauptsächlich aus Menschen besteht, die auf einem riesigen Müllhaufen auf einem weitgehend verwüsteten Planeten leben, nicht pessimistisch genug. Vielmehr können wir selbst schwer betroffen sein, wenn wir ignorieren, dass auch wir Menschen nur als Teil eines funktionierenden Ökosystems überleben können.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">3. Verbrauch endlicher Ressourcen</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Der Ressourcenverbrauch steigt parallel zum Bevölkerungswachstum und exponentiell mit dem viel gepriesenen Wohlstand. Nicht nur die oft erwähnten "seltenen Erden" könnten knapp werden. Auch die landwirtschaftliche Fläche kann nicht beliebig vergrößert werden. Eine "grüne Revolution" kann wahrscheinlich nur ein- oder zweimal wiederholt werden. Die Böden bauen sich ab, sind erschöpft. Selbst Wasser für die Landwirtschaft und für den unmittelbaren menschlichen Konsum wird zu einem knappen Gut. Man wird es nicht gerne hören. Aber viele dieser Ressourcen sind begrenzt. Sie können nicht reproduziert werden. Der technische Fortschritt kann die Grenzen noch ein wenig weiter verschieben, wie das Beispiel der "Peak Oil" Theorie zeigt. Dies ändert jedoch nichts an dem grundlegenden Problem der endlichen Ressourcen.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Dennoch sieht es so aus, als wären wir nie weiter von einem globalen Management der knappen Ressourcen als Voraussetzung für unser Überleben entfernt gewesen. Vielmehr scheint die Ressourcenknappheit zu einer Hauptquelle für geopolitische Risiken und daraus resultierende Konflikte zu werden.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">4. Wirtschaftliche Ungleichheit</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Weltweit wächst die wirtschaftliche Ungleichheit der Menschheit. Wenn sie nicht zumindest bis zu einem gewissen Grad begrenzt ist, wird sie schließlich alle soziale Ordnung zerstören. Historische Überlegungen lehren uns, dass nur katastrophale Ereignisse wie Kriege, Epidemien oder Revolutionen die Macht hatten, Ungleichheiten wieder auszugleichen. In "ruhigen" Perioden wie dem aktuellen Jahrhundert der US-amerikanischen Welthegemonie driftet der Reichtum der wirtschaftlich handelnden Individuen wieder auseinander.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In den USA leben bereits mehrere "Stämme" ohne jeden Kontakt Seite an Seite neben einander. Gelegentlich bekämpfen sie sich auch gegenseitig. Dieser Trend wird sich noch verstärken. Er führt zu Isolationstendenzen. Die Globalisierung der 90er Jahre bricht vor unseren Augen zusammen. Sie war nie mit einem fairen Welthandel zu verwechseln. Vielmehr wurde sie als Herrschaftsinstrument zur Umsetzung hegemonialer Bestrebungen eingesetzt. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Dennoch hat sie zu Interdependenz und Austausch geführt. So zerfällt die erhoffte globale Gemeinschaft in immer autoritärere Machtblöcke und Interessenbereiche zu einer Zeit, in der Gemeinschaftsaktionen regionale und globale Katastrophen vielleicht noch abwenden könnten. Diese Hoffnung ist nun verschwunden.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">5. Klimakrise</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Zu diesem Hauptthema ist bereits viel geschrieben worden. Sie kann hier daher knapp abgehandelt werden. Die Klimakrise steht weiterhin ganz oben auf der Liste unserer wichtigsten Anliegen. Selbst Paläopolitiker wie Donald Trump leugnen nicht mehr, dass der Klimawandel gerade jetzt vor unseren Augen stattfindet. Das bedeutet aber nicht, dass diese für sie eher neue Erkenntnis in sinnvolle Maßnahmen gegen den unaufhaltsamen Wandel mündet. Im Gegenteil, seine Regierung <a href="http://time.com/5475293/trump-fossil-fuels-cop-24-katowice/">plädiert</a> für veraltete traditionelle Energiequellen und verurteilt gleichzeitig die Erzeugung erneuerbarer Energien als ineffektiv und sogar <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/04/politics/chuck-grassley-trump-wind-energy-cancer-idiotic/index.html">gefährlich</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">6. Wachstumsökonomie</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Es ist ein unbestrittenes Dogma unter den Mitgliedern der herrschenden Klassen in allen Ländern, die ich kenne, dass die Wirtschaft wachsen muss - je mehr, desto besser. Wie lange kann das noch so weitergehen, unendlich lange? Vielleicht sollten wir die führenden Schulen von Ökonomen daran erinnern, dass wir am Ende auf einem endlichen Planeten leben. Wenn man diesem Gedanken in Kombination mit der Aussicht auf ein schließlich abflachendes Bevölkerungswachstum folgt, dürfte Produktivitätssteigerung der noch verbleibende Treiber für ein Wirtschaftswachstum sein. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Geprägt von einer Zeit, in der unendlich weiter gehender "Fortschritt" die Grundannahme für alle unsere weiteren Überlegungen war, halten bisher nur wenige Akademiker eine Nullwachstumswirtschaft für wünschenswert oder sogar auch nur für möglich. Die Perspektive einer stationären Wirtschaft scheint jedoch nur eine logische Konsequenz zu sein, wenn wir das Ziel der Erhaltung des menschlichen Lebens auf der Erde ernsthaft verfolgen. Ich denke, es ist an der Zeit, neue <a href="https://steadystate.org/">nachhaltige Wirtschaftsmodelle</a> von der Wissenschaft zu fordern.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">7. Konfliktpotenzial</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Wie es zu erwarten war, mehren sich die Hinweise, dass Ressourcenknappheit, ebenso wie die <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2014/09/">Überbevölkerung</a> den Wettbewerb um ebendiese Ressourcen antreibt. Damit schafft sie Konfliktpotenzial. Laut "</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i> <a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2019.pdf">The Global Risks Report 2019</a>, 14th Edition</i>" des Weltwirtschaftsforums nehmen die geopolitischen Risiken zu. In seinem Vorwort fragt der Autor rhetorisch: </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">"</span><i><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Steuert die Welt schlafwandelnd auf eine Krise zu? Die globalen Risiken nehmen zu. Der gemeinsame Wille, sie anzugehen, scheint aber zu fehlen. Stattdessen verhärten sich die Fronten. Der im letztjährigen Global Risks Report festgehaltene weltweite Trend zu einer neuen Phase stark nationalstaatenzentrierter Politik hat sich 2018 fortgesetzt. Die Idee der "Rückgewinnung der Kontrolle" - sei es im Inland von politischen Rivalen oder extern von multilateralen oder supranationalen Organisationen - findet in vielen Ländern und bei vielen Themen Anklang. Die Energie, die nun für die Konsolidierung oder Wiederherstellung der nationalen Kontrolle aufgewendet wurde, schwächt die kollektiven Reaktionen auf neue globale Herausforderungen. Wir driften immer tiefer in globale Probleme hinein, von denen wir uns immer schwerer befreien können."</span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></i>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Offensichtlich marschieren unsere politischen Führer gemeinsam in die falsche Richtung. Das tun sie nur bedingt willentlich und aus eigenem Antrieb, wie wir einräumen müssen. Dennoch ist es an der Zeit, geeignete Gegenkräfte zu mobilisieren.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Wo bleibt der Widerstand?</span></h2>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Aber wo sind die jungen Leute, die später die Rechnung bezahlen müssen?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Lassen sie es einfach geschehen? Glauben sie überhaupt noch den kaum verborgenen Plänen der unehrlichen Eliten? Sind sie bereit, sich instrumentalisieren zu lassen? Haben sie noch Hoffnung, obwohl sie es besser wissen sollten? Oder haben sie innerlich bereits aufgegeben und spielen einfach apathisch ihre Rolle im Endzeitspiel? Haben sie sich trotzig, verzweifelt in den Kokon eines kleinen, privaten Lebens zurückgezogen? </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Eines kann man mit Sicherheit sagen: Rebellisch sind sie sicherlich nicht.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Natürlich gibt es einige ikonische Ausnahmen, die seit einiger Zeit bekannt sind und von den Medien und möglichen Interessengruppen protegiert werden. In einigen Fällen wurden ihnen Preise verliehen, sie mit öffentlichen Ehrungen ruhiggestellt, als gut dosierte Opposition in ein ebenso gut funktionierendes System eingefügt. Die Aufgabe, die ihnen dann übertragen wird, besteht darin, den Verantwortlichen Glaubwürdigkeit zu verleihen und all denen, die weiter Zweifel haben, zu versichern: Schaut, Leute, wir nehmen euch ernst, wir hören zu, ihr habt euren wichtigen Platz in der Gesellschaft - und dann machen wir weiter wie bisher. Wie auch immer, die Show muss weitergehen.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Lassen Sie uns nach dem Zufallsprinzip ein paar Beispiele auswählen und vorstellen, repräsentativ für all die anderen, die es nicht ins öffentliche Bewusstsein geschafft haben. Aber auch sie wurden und werden schnell wieder Opfer einer öffentlichen Amnesie.</span><br />
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</span>
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<ul><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">
<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malala_Yousafzai">Malala Yousafzai</a>, eine prominente pakistanischer Aktivistin vom Paschtu-Stamm, die sich für das Recht auf Bildung für Mädchen einsetzte. Im Jahr 2014 wurde sie mit dem <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Nobel_Peace_Prize">Friedensnobelpreis</a> ausgezeichnet. Sie ist damit eine der jüngsten Nobelpreisträgerinnen aller Zeiten. Zwei Jahre zuvor musste sie für ihren Aktivismus fast mit dem Leben bezahlen, als sie bei einem Attentatsversuch von einem Schützen der sogenannten Taliban beinahe erschossen wurde.<br /><br /></span></li>
<li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emma_Gonz%C3%A1lez">Emma González</a>, eine amerikanische Aktivistin und Befürworterin der Waffenkontrolle. Als High School Senior überlebte sie im Februar 2018 die Schießerei an der Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. Als Reaktion darauf gründete sie die Waffenkontroll-Aktivitätsgruppe <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Never_Again_MSD">Never Again MSD</a>. Ihre berührende <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u46HzTGVQhg">Rede</a> ist es immer noch, oder gerade jetzt, wert, gehört zu werden.<br /><br /></li>
<li><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greta_Thunberg">Greta Thunberg</a>, eine 15-jährige schwedische Schülerin, ist seit einiger Zeit in den Schlagzeilen, weil sie den Schulbesuch verweigerte, um Politiker dazu zu bringen, auf die drohende Klimakrise zu reagieren. Ihr Handeln erregte tatsächlich weltweite Aufmerksamkeit. So inspirierte sie weltweit Schüler, an Schülerstreiks teilzunehmen.</li>
</span></ul>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Alle drei ausgewählten Aktivisten sind Mädchen. Ich bin mir nicht sicher, ob das nur ein Zufall ist. Jede von ihnen ergriff Maßnahmen aus einem anderen Grund, um verschiedene Missstände, Katastrophen und Bedrohungen zu bekämpfen. Alle gemeinsam haben sie eine begrenzte Wirkung auf den Lauf der Welt, während die globalen Gesellschaften mit hoher und sogar zunehmender Geschwindigkeit in die Sackgasse rasen. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Noch eine Bemerkung zur letzten Person in der Liste, die dabei ist, eine internationale Bewegung zu begründen: Man mag vielleicht nicht darauf vertrauen, dass die Schüler, die den Schulunterricht schwänzen, einen nachhaltigen Einfluss auf den Lauf der Welt haben. Auch ist es leicht, sie zu kritisieren. Sie halten jedoch ein wertvolles Element in ihren Händen: die moralische Legitimität. Wer, wenn nicht sie, die sie später die Last des "unerbittlichen Unvorhergesehenen" tragen müssen, hat das Recht, sich gegen die vorherrschende politische Ignoranz zu stemmen?</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Der dümmste aller Einwände, ein Schuss, der auch sofort nach hinten losging, wurde vom Vorsitzenden der Deutschen Liberalen Partei (FDP), Christian Linder, vorgebracht. Er erklärte ernsthaft, dass die protestierenden Studenten so komplizierte Dinge wie Aktionen gegen den Klimawandel den Profis überlassen sollten. Damit meinte er höchstwahrscheinlich in erster Linie sich selbst. Machen wir es uns noch einmal klar, was einen Profi vom Rest der Welt unterscheidet: Er macht seine Arbeit nicht aus eigener Überzeugung, wie es ein Amateur täte, sondern als Beruf, also für Geld. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Es sind genau diese Fachleute, die die Welt an den Rand des Abgrunds geführt haben. In ihrer Hybris haben sie auch noch die Chuzpe und Arroganz, uns zu sagen, dass wir bitte weiterhin den Bock zum Gärtner machen sollen – wieder einmal. Für wie dumm halten sie uns? Nun, offenbar für sehr dumm.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Überlegung</span></h2>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Ok Leute, nachdem Ihr das alles gelesen habt, was genau sollte jetzt getan werden, kann getan werden? Da Aufgeben definitiv keine Option ist, muss nämlich etwas getan werden. Es müssen sehr schnell einige drastische Maßnahmen ergriffen werden. Die Zeit läuft uns davon - wenn es nicht bereits zu spät ist. Müssen wir eine neue politische Partei gründen, eine, die besser ist als die bestehenden? Sollten wir unsere Bedenken energisch in die etablierten politischen Kanäle einbringen? Sollten wir weiter protestieren, bis die von uns Verantwortlichen endlich zur Besinnung kommen?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Nun, vielleicht muss all das getan werden. Natürlich sind Korrekturmaßnahmen notwendig, auch überfällig. Aber zuerst muss die Welt durch eine klare und kraftvolle Botschaft bewegt werden. Auf die müssen wir uns zunächst einigen. Dann müssen wir die Botschaft global verbreiten.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">"</span></span><i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;">Think global, act locally</i><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">" scheint mir mehr als ein nur ein Schlagwort für das Bullshit-Bingo Spiel zu sein. Eher sollten wir es als Gebot betrachten.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Es kann kein Zweifel daran bestehen, dass die derzeitigen großen Herausforderungen ihrer Natur nach aus global sind. Sie betreffen uns weltweit.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> Sie werden nicht durch eine einzige heroische Handlung eines einzelnen verantwortungsbewusst handelnden Staates oder einer einzelnen Region gelöst werden können, sondern nur durch eine gemeinsame globale Anstrengung.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Andererseits unterscheiden sich die Rahmenbedingungen für politische Aktivitäten je nach den lokalen Gegebenheiten. In Demokratien könnte tatsächlich eine neue politische Partei das Mittel der Wahl sein. In Ländern unter autoritärer Führung müsste eine Art ziviler Ungehorsam der Mehrheit den Boden für einige aufgeklärte Aktivitäten bereiten. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Mein Ratschlag ist, zweigleisig zu fahren: </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b> 1. Sammeln & Bekennen, </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b> 2. Agitieren & Handeln</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Warum das Ganze? Warum sollten wir unsere Kräfte bewusst schwächen, indem wir sie auf mehrere Einheiten aufteilen?</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Lasst mich kurz erklären, was ich meine …</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Das politische Tagesgeschäft kann manchmal stressig und turbulent werden. Die Akteure, besonders wenn sie sich noch in der Anfangsphase befinden, erleben allzu leicht den Druck der etablierten Kräfte. Gelegentlich mögen sie versucht sein, nachzugeben, „faule Kompromisse“ einzugehen, nur um ein kleines Stück ihrer ursprünglichen, noblen Absicht zu retten, kurz gesagt: von den Prinzipien abzuweichen, die sie sich einst selbst auferlegt haben, und sie damit zu verraten. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Auch, wie bereits erwähnt, sind politische Aktionen, zumindest heute, ihrer Natur nach lokal, während die Prinzipien global gelten müssen, um ein nachhaltiges Leben auf der Erde zu ermöglichen. Und schließlich müssen nicht nur unsere Grundhaltungen angepasst, die politischen Programme neu gestaltet, unsere Ziele neu ausgerichtet werden. Die Funktionsweise der Politik selbst muss sich grundlegend ändern, um mit unseren menschlichen Schwächen besser umgehen zu können. Denn die haben es bis heute geschafft, selbst den edelsten Absichten den Schwung zu nehmen. Aber mehr dazu weiter unten in diesem Text.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Daher halten wir es für klug, die Vision von deren Verwirklichung, die Prinzipien von der Politik im Tagesgeschäft und die Regelfindung von der Regelausführung zu trennen, genau wie die Legislative und die Exekutive in einem ordnungsgemäß regierten Staat gut getrennt sein sollte. Grundsätze und Regeln sollten besser von einer separaten Organisation ausgearbeitet und aufrechterhalten werden, die nicht von den Härten und irrlichternden Versuchungen des politischen Alltags ausgesetzt ist.</span></span><br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Sammeln & Bekennen</span></h2>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Um auch nur die geringste Wirkung zu entfalten, müssen wir zuerst sehr viele werden. Das heißt, wir müssen alle diejenigen um uns versammeln, die sich zur Gruppe einer Art Weltbürger zugehörig fühlen. Nennen wir diese Gruppe vorerst provisorisch die <a href="https://www.worldcitizensleague.org/">Weltbürgerliga</a>. Der ganze Zweck dieser Organisation besteht darin, diese Grundsätze und Regeln zu definieren, zu verfeinern und zu veröffentlichen. Das ist alles – sonst nichts, aber auch nichts anderes.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Zweitens sollten wir uns auf einige Grundprinzipien einigen. Einige davon sollten unveränderlich sein, andere auf einer niedrigeren Ebene, so grundlegend, dass sie nur durch das Votum einer Zweidrittelmehrheit geändert werden können. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Darunter werden die Grundsätze angeordnet, deren Gestaltung für Diskussionen offen bleibt und deren Änderung durch ein einfaches Mehrheitsvotum möglich ist.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Drittens sollten wir uns öffentlich zu diesen selbst auferlegten Prinzipien bekennen und geloben, danach zu handeln. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Sollten wir diese drei erklärten Ziele erreichen, werden wir eine Stimme schaffen, die gehört werden muss und nicht mehr ignoriert werden kann.</span><br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Agitieren & Handeln</span></h2>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Politische Aktivisten, Interessengruppen, Parteien können sich dann auf diese Weltbürgerprinzipien beziehen, sie in ihre Programme und Agenden aufnehmen und lokal umsetzen, wie es zentral aus der globalen Perspektive nicht möglich wäre.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Dieses Kapitel werde ich bewusst kurz halten. Denn nach meiner obigen Aussage können wir hier nicht viel darüber sagen, wie wir diese Prinzipien in wirksames Handeln umsetzen können. Allerdings werden die Prinzipien auch die zu ergreifenden Maßnahmen beeinflussen. Denn sie beziehen sich nicht nur auf die politische Botschaft. Sie geben auch Hinweise auf die Durchführung politischer Operationen.</span></span><br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Grundsätze</span></h2>
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Verbindliche Grundsätze</span></h3>
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#1. Nachhaltiges Leben</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Prinzip</b>: Alle unsere bewussten menschlichen Aktivitäten müssen sich in ein nachhaltiges Modell des Zusammenlebens untereinander und mit allen anderen Lebewesen dieses Planeten einfügen, das am besten geeignet ist, ein langfristiges Überleben der Menschheit zu gewährleisten. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Begründung</b>: Die Sicherung des Fortbestands der Menschheit ist das alles dominierende Ziel. Daneben kann es keine anderen gleichrangigen Ziele geben, sondern nur Voraussetzungen und abgeleitete Ziele. Eine selbstverständliche Voraussetzung ist die Erhaltung oder Wiederherstellung einer gesunden und nachhaltig bewohnbaren Umwelt. Wir müssen also jeder <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2017/07/inherently-unsustainable.html">nicht nachhaltigen Wirtschaftstätigkeit</a> ein Ende setzen. Alle anderen Ziele haben einen niedrigeren Rang und müssen dem grundlegenden Überziel #1 untergeordnet werden.</span></span><br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#2: Wahrung der bürgerlichen Freiheiten</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Prinzip</b>: Wir folgen dem Prinzip #1 mit größter Sorgfalt und wahren dabei so viele der bürgerlichen Freiheiten des Einzelnen wie möglich, ohne dem Prinzip #1 zu schaden. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Begründung</b>: Um die Plünderung dieses Planeten zu stoppen und den Schaden, der bisher bereits entstanden ist, zu beheben, bedarf es sicherlich einer großen gemeinsamen Anstrengung. Es ist schwer vorstellbar, dass sich alle Menschen auf diesem Planeten freiwillig dieser gigantischen Initiative anschließen wollen. Dennoch müssen wir global als Gemeinschaft handeln. Das bedeutet, sich viel besser zu organisieren und stärker zu disziplinieren, als es jemals außerhalb streng autoritärer Regimes der Fall war. Da Prinzip #1 im Widerspruch zu Prinzip #2 stehen kann, wird unsere Vision eines freien und selbstbestimmten Lebens damit auf den Prüfstand gestellt werden. Die <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_liberties">bürgerlichen Freiheiten</a>, die wir in Europa und einigen anderen Teilen der Welt besitzen, könnten also durchaus bedroht sein. Wir müssen sicherlich vorsichtig vorgehen, um nicht zu viel von dem zu verlieren, was wir in den letzten 300 Jahren seit Beginn der <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Enlightenment">Aufklärung</a> in dieser Hinsicht erreicht haben. Aus diesem Grund ist die "Wahrung der bürgerlichen Freiheiten" das einzige sekundäre Ziel, das ebenfalls unter allen Bedingungen unverändert bleiben sollte.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Grundlegende Prinzipien</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#3: Der Nationalstaat hat sich überlebt.</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Prinzip</b>: Einige wenige supranationale Organe müssen die derzeitigen multiplen Nationalstaaten ersetzen. Letztendlich bleibt ein einziger multinationaler Staat bestehen.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Begründung</b>: Nationalstaaten, wie wir sie kennen, werden nicht in der Lage sein, sich den aktuellen und zukünftigen Herausforderungen erfolgreich zu stellen. Vielmehr müssen wir angesichts der gemeinsamen Herausforderungen auch gemeinsam als eine Gemeinschaft der <a href="https://www.worldcitizensleague.org/">Weltbürger</a> denken, fühlen und handeln. Um eine Form der globalen Governance zu erreichen, müssen mittelfristig einige wenige <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/05/europe-which-europe.html">supranationale Organe</a> die Vielfalt der derzeit, um die knappen Ressourcen dieses Planeten konkurrierenden Nationalstaaten ersetzen.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Wir sehen keine Alternative zu einer konsolidierten Weltordnungspolitik, die am Ende es zu einer Staatlichkeit für eine Art föderierter Vereinter Nationen (UN) führt.</span></span><br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#4: Reduzierung der Weltbevölkerung</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Prinzip</b>: Wir müssen die Weltbevölkerung aktiv managen.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Begründung</b>: Die Weltbevölkerung ist bei weitem der wichtigste Schlüsselfaktor für ein global nachhaltiges menschliches Leben. Mehrere <a href="https://wwf.panda.org/knowledge_hub/teacher_resources/webfieldtrips/ecological_balance/eco_footprint/">Fußabdruckberechnungen</a>, die am besten am jährlichen „ <a href="https://www.overshootday.org/">Earth Overshoot Day</a> “ ausgedrückt werden, sowie schlichte Logik, legen nahe, dass es eine Obergrenze für die <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2015/02/what-fools-these-mortals-be.html">Anzahl der Menschen</a> geben gibt, die dieser Planet nachhaltig ernähren kann. Wenn wir den durchschnittlichen Ressourcenverbrauch der wirtschaftlich fortgeschrittenen Länder als globalen Standard zu nehmen, so sagt uns die einfache Logik, dass es <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/04/too-late-we-are-too-many-already-daily.html">bereits zu spät</a> ist. Wir sind jetzt zu viele Menschen für unseren Planeten. Kurzfristiges Ziel muss es also sein, die Weltbevölkerung deutlich unter der magischen Zahl von 10 Milliarden zu stabilisieren. Langfristig werden wir gezwungen sein, die Weltbevölkerung wieder zu reduzieren. Die maximale nachhaltige Anzahl ist noch unbekannt. Es wird jedoch erwartet, dass sie deutlich niedriger liegen wird als die derzeit nicht nachhaltige Weltbevölkerung. Am Ende dürfte sie nicht viel höher sein als 1 bis 2 Milliarden Menschen.</span></span><br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#5: Keine Berufspolitiker mehr</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Prinzip</b>: Lassen Sie Maschinen unsere täglichen Angelegenheiten regeln - nach menschengemachten Prinzipien und Regeln.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Begründung</b>: Politik ist eine zu wichtige Aufgabe, um sie den Politikern zu überlassen. Es besteht zwar Einigkeit darüber, dass der begehrte <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/jul/03/myth-strong-leader-political-leadership-modern-age-archie-brown-review">mythische starke Führer</a>, der uns aus dem Morast herausziehen und in das gelobte Land führen will, mehr Schaden als Nutzen stiften wird. Aber auch in demokratisch regierten Staaten kümmern sich die gewählten Mandatsträger nach kurzer Zeit mit überwältigender Mehrheit nur um <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-political-career.html">ihre eigene Karriere</a> als Politiker. Sie werden dominiert durch die Jagd nach Wählern und parlamentarischen Mehrheiten. Am Ende sind für ihre Parteien und sich selbst eher unbrauchbar geworden. Die Versuchung des Populismus ist ihr ständiger Begleiter. Sie werden Opfer von Lobbyisten oder verlieren schlicht den Kontakt zu den alltäglichen Problemen ihrer ursprünglichen Wählerbasis. In der Unternehmensführung gibt es eine frühe Bewegung, die überlegt, Unternehmen "ohne Manager zu führen" (z.B. Ricardo Semler, dessen <a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/ricardo_semler_how_to_run_a_company_with_almost_no_rules?language=en">TED Talk</a> viral wurde). </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Noch immer von der Mehrheit der orthodoxen Gelehrten als esoterisch angesehen, fordern sie, den Begriff "Manager" neu zu definieren und fragen, ob sich die Idee des "Managements", wie sie aus dem Industriezeitalter übernommen haben, überlebt hat. Da das "<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/031815/what-role-agency-theory-corporate-governance.asp">Agentendilemma</a>" sowohl für Regierungen als auch für Unternehmen gilt, muss den "Fachleuten" die operative Handlungsmacht entzogen und auf Systeme übertragen werden. Lasst die Menschen zur <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/08/a-case-for-meta-politics.html">Metapolitik</a> beitragen. Aber lasst die <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/05/let-algorithms-rule-not-politicians.html">Systeme regieren</a> - nicht Politiker.</span></span><br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#6: Begrenzung der Ungleichheit</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Prinzip</b>: Die wirtschaftliche Ungleichheit muss auf eine Obergrenze beschränkt werden.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Begründung</b>: "Alle Menschen sind gleich geschaffen", heißt es in der <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Declaration_of_Independence">Unabhängigkeitserklärung der USA</a>. Die Idee wurde aus der <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Enlightenment">Philosophie der europäischen Aufklärung</a> übernommen. Sie fand ihren Weg ebenfalls in mehrere andere Verfassungen. "Alle Menschen" ist in diesem Zusammenhang in sicher mit der Menschheit gleichzusetzen. Natürlich war es nie die Absicht, alle Menschen „gleich zu machen". Vielmehr geht es darum, ihnen gleiche Chancen zu geben. Aber auch die Chancengleichheit war seit jeher eher ein Programm oder sogar ein Traum als jemals Realität. Für Ökonomen ist Ungleichheit ein wesentlicher Treiber des Wirtschaftswachstums - je höher die Ungleichheit, desto höher die Wachstumsrate. Tatsächlich scheint die Fähigkeit, sich von anderen zu unterscheiden, eine treibende Kraft zu sein. Uns Menschen dazu zu bringen, große Anstrengungen zu unternehmen, um anders und ungleich zu sein. Diesen positiven Effekten sind jedoch Grenzen gesetzt. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Ungleichheit, gemessen z.B. nach dem <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atkinson_index">Atkinson-Index</a> von <a href="https://www.tony-atkinson.com/">Sir Anthony B. Atkinson</a>, steigt in einem Maße an, in dem sich der Reichtum der Welt in der Hand einiger weniger konzentriert (und wir sind nicht mehr sehr weit davon entfernt). Sie hat das Potenzial, Gesellschaften zu zerreißen. Denn in diesen Gesellschaften können einige wenige „<a href="http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/sovereign-individual.html">Souverän-gleiche Individuen</a> “ das Schicksal der Massen lenken, in dem sie Wirtschaftsmacht nahtlos in politischen Einfluss verwandeln. In der Wirtschaft sind Märkte sehr effiziente Instrumente - solange jedenfalls wie sie funktionieren. Sie müssen überwacht und reguliert werden, um nicht in die aus dem Ruder zu laufen. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Außerdem gibt es mehrere Bereiche wie die berüchtigten "<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/natural_monopoly.asp">natürlichen Monopole</a> " oder begrenzte natürliche Ressourcen, in denen freie Märkte überhaupt nicht funktionieren. In der Geschichte gibt es viele Beispiele für harte staatlich Korrekturmaßnahmen wie Kartellgesetze, erzwungene Unternehmensteilungen und andere Maßnahmen, um mit diesem Problem umzugehen. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In ähnlicher Weise müssen wir Maßnahmen zur Begrenzung der Ungleichheit finden, um nicht blutige Revolutionen zu riskieren. Vielleicht können uns <a href="https://www.tony-atkinson.com/the-15-proposals-from-tony-atkinsons-inequality-what-can-be-done/">Tony Atkinsons 15 Vorschläge</a> eine Orientierungshilfe geben.</span></span><br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#7: Stationäres Wirtschaften</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Prinzip</b>: Aufbau und Betrieb einer Wirtschaft, die auch bei Nullwachstum in einem gesunden Zustand sein kann.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Begründung</b>: Wirtschaftswachstum kann nicht mehr das zugrunde liegende Paradigma aller Wirtschaftstheorien sein. Unsere gegenwärtige Wirtschaft ist jedoch auf Wachstum ausgerichtet. Wenn der Konsum in einer Wachstumswirtschaft nachlässt, kommt es zu einer Rezession. Es heißt, dass ein zu geringes Wachstum wirtschaftliche Turbulenzen und Arbeitslosigkeit verursacht. Das kann doch niemand wollen. Das Bevölkerungswachstum ist einer der wichtigsten Treiber für das Wirtschaftswachstum. Aber das Wachstum der Weltbevölkerung muss sehr bald gestoppt und in den kommenden Jahrzehnten bis zu einem gewissen Grad umgekehrt werden. Auch die Ausbeutung der natürlichen Ressourcen wird bald auf die eine oder andere Weise begrenzt sein. Der technologische Fortschritt kann durch Produktivitätssteigerung und die Schaffung neuer Märkte für immaterielle Güter noch Wachstum bringen. Die traditionelle Lehrmeinung muss sich jedoch umstellen und Wege finden, damit umzugehen. Diese Art von Wirtschaft ähnelt sehr wahrscheinlich weniger der aktuell proklamierten Wachstumsökonomie wird, sondern einer Art stationärer Wirtschaft.</span></span><br />
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Ein letztes Wort</span></h2>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Da dieses Papier sicherlich nicht der richtige Ort ist, um die Grundprinzipien, zu denen sich alle Weltbürger verpflichten sollten, vollständig auszuarbeiten, werde ich ihre Zahl auf 7 beschränken. Das sind fundamentale Prinzipien. Sie müssen weiter ausgebaut und über mehrere Ebenen weiter detailliert werden, um schließlich zu ausführbaren Regeln zu gelangen. Eine Ausgewogenheit dieser oft widersprüchlichen Grundprinzipien herzustellen, wird noch eine monströse Aufgabe sein. Es wird jahrelange Arbeit erfordern, die von einer größeren Gruppe engagierter Menschen zu leisten ist. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Um als Gemeinschaft unsere Zukunft zu gestalten, müssen wir diese Gemeinschaft sein. Niemand sonst wird das tun. Und wir müssen es jetzt tun. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Die herrschende Generation ohne Zukunft wird das nicht gerne hören. Aber es ist keine Zeit zu verlieren, wenn wir nicht enden wollen, wie der renommierte australische Wissenschaftler Professor Frank Fenner sagt: " <a href="https://phys.org/news/2010-06-humans-extinct-years-eminent-scientist.html">Die Menschen werden in 100 Jahren ausgestorben sein</a> ".</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Also, steh auf, schließ‘ Dich der Gruppe an und verpflichte Dich.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Horst Walther (<a href="mailto:horst.walther@worldcitizensleague.org">horst.walther@worldcitizensleague.org</a>) </span><br />
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Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-32630878445498085772019-05-27T16:51:00.000+02:002019-05-27T16:51:02.498+02:00The 'No Future' Generation<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">The right to complain</span></h2>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">“<i>The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. …”</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">These words are <a href="https://www.bartleby.com/73/195.html">attributed</a> to Socrates (469–399 B.C.). Since then and probable even before those times, the complaints about the perceived moral decay of the respective contemporary youth have not ceased.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Simple logic suggests, that moral worth – however it may be defined in the particular period’s context – cannot have been steadily deteriorating over 100 generations. We would have all become anti-social criminals by now. Rather there seems to be something completely wrong with the subjective perception of those elders, who emit the complaints. At minimum they seem to have forgotten that they themselves once were young and full of ideals, desires – and nonsense.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Moreover, do they have any right to complain this way? Can the elder generation or generations really be taken as the shining role model, young men and women ought to follow?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">A closer examination rather delivers a devastating picture. Even if we leave the strongmen, which are on the rise around the world aside, if we don’t consider the retro-politics or even paleo-politics reigning is even in major western countries. Let’s take for example a European country like Germany, which is internationally regarded as moderate in all respect, or France which allegedly attempted to re-start. Take Sweden, Canada – not the US. Do their governments really address the long-term sustainability of human life?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Let me be blunt: I doubt that. Those in charge rather desire to be re-elected (in democracies) or stay in power under any circumstance (under authoritarian regimes). I’ll keep this section short as I contemplated about these fundamental flaws <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/">before</a>. Maybe they can’t do otherwise. In consequence however their actions are far from being responsible.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">They act as if they had no children, no grandchildren, no future. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">At least they do not care. They sacrifice the future of mankind recklessly for their short-term gains in the present. For them it may still work out fine. It is the coming generations who will have to pay a terrible price for this. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Need some evidence?</span></h1>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As evidence is abundant that the party eventually will come to an end, I arbitrarily limit the indicators of looming disasters to just seven …</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">1. Overpopulation</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The current world population as of April 2019 just passed the 7.7 billion mark. Until the time of Napoleon, there were less than 1 billion people on Earth at any one time. Since the Second World War, we have been adding a billion people to the global population every 12-15 years. Our population is more than double today what it was in 1970. Global population is currently rising by more than 80 million a year. With a birth rate <a href="http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/">more than doubling</a> the mortality rate it is most likely to continue rising for the rest of this century unless we take action. The growth rate is expected to flatten out within a few generations, resulting in a saturation of the total global population at about ~ 10 billion by ~ 2050. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Given our actual technological status, our aspirations and even just our physical needs it appears doubtful that mankind can maintain a long-term sustainable existence at this number. Maybe <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/04/too-late-we-are-too-many-already-daily.html">we are too many already</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">2. The sixth extinction</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Palaeontologists discovered that throughout earth’s history there have been (at least) <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/palaeontology/big-five-extinctions">five mass extinctions</a>, which wiped out major fractions of all life on this planet. At the end of the geological periods Ordovician, 444 million years ago, 86%, Devonian, 375 million years ago, 75%, Permian, 251 million years ago, 96%, Triassic, 200 million years ago, 80%, and Cretaceous, 66 million years ago, 76% of all species were lost. The sixth extinction, this time however man-made, is now in full swing. According to the UN’s <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/global-environment-outlook-6">Global Environment Outlook 6</a> since 1970, the vertebrate population has declined by around 60 %. At present, between 25 and 42 % of invertebrates, such as insects, are threatened with extinction. The disappearance of insects poses a particular threat to the growth of new food. But this is not the only threat directly affecting human food supply: One third of the planet's land area now belongs to the "degraded soils" category; in the past 50 years, 40 % of the world's wetlands have disappeared. Warming and overfishing endanger the livelihoods of over three billion people who depend on fish as their most important food source. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So, probably even the rather unpleasant outlook of a planet, whose biomass primarily consists of humans, residing on a huge pile of garbage on a largely devastated planet, is even not pessimistic enough. Rather we ourselves may be affected severely by ignoring the fact that we humans too can only survive as part of a functioning ecosystem.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">3. Depleting the planet of resources</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The consumption of resources increases in parallel to population growth and exponentially with the much-praised prosperity. It is not only the often mentioned "<a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2075-163X/7/11/203/pdf">rare earths</a>" that could become scarce. Agricultural land cannot be increased at will either. A "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution">green revolution</a>" can probably only be repeated once or twice. The <a href="http://www.fao.org/documents/card/en/c/c6814873-efc3-41db-b7d3-2081a10ede50/">soils degrade</a>, are exhausted. Even water for agriculture and human consumption is becoming a scarce commodity. They don't like to say it. But many of these resources are finite. They cannot be reproduced. Technical progress can still push the boundaries a little further, as can be seen from the example of the "<a href="http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2014/ph240/liegl1/">peak oil</a>" theory. This however does not change the fundamental problem of finite resources. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Nevertheless, it looks like we have never been farther away from a global management of scarce resources as a precondition for our survival. Rather resource scarcity seems to become a major source of geopolitical risks and resulting conflicts.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">4. Economic inequality</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Globally the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_inequality">economic inequality</a> of humanity is growing. If not limited at least to a certain degree, it will eventually destroy all social order. Historical considerations teach us that only cataclysmic events like wars, epidemics or revolutions had the power to level inequality again. During ‘calm’ periods like the current century of US American world hegemony the wealth of the economically acting individuals drifts apart again.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Several "<a href="http://www.businessinsider.de/the-11-nations-of-the-united-states-2015-7">tribes</a>" already live side by side in the USA <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/apr/03/21st-century-segregation-divided-race">without any contact</a>. Occasionally, they fight each other. This trend will only intensify. It leads towards isolation tendencies. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization">globalisation</a> of the 1990s is collapsing before our very eyes. It was never to be confused with fair world trade. Rather, it was used as an instrument of domination to implement hegemonic aspirations. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Nevertheless, it has led to interdependence and promoted exchange. Thus, the hoped-for global community is falling apart into increasingly authoritarian power blocs and spheres of interest at a time when community action could perhaps still avert regional and global disasters. This hope now has gone.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">5. Climate crisis</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Much has been written already on this main topic. It remains high on the list of our major concerns. This it can be handled here just briefly. Even palaeo-politicians like Donald Trump no longer deny that climate change is happening right now before our eyes. That doesn’t mean however that this rather new insight instigates any useful actions to counter the unstoppable change. Quite to the opposite his administration <a href="http://time.com/5475293/trump-fossil-fuels-cop-24-katowice/">advocates</a> for outdated traditional energy sources at the same time denouncing renewable energy production as ineffective and even <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/04/politics/chuck-grassley-trump-wind-energy-cancer-idiotic/index.html">dangerous</a>. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">6. Growth economy</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">It is an unquestioned dogma among the members of the ruling classes in all countries I know of that the economy must grow – the more, the better. How long can this go on, infinitely? Maybe we should remind the leading schools of economists that we in the end live on a finite planet. Taking this proposition combined with the outlook of a finally stalling population growth should only leave productivity increase as a remaining driver for economic growth. Raised in an era where infinitely on-going ‘progress’ was our underlying assumption for all further considerations only a few academics so far regard a zero-growth economy as desirable or even possible. However, the outlook of a stationary economy appears to be only a logical consequence, if we seriously pursue the goal of a sustaining human life on earth. I think it is time to demand new <a href="https://steadystate.org/">sustainable economic models</a> from the scholarly world.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">7. Potential for conflict</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As it could have been expected evidence is mounting that resource scarcity drives competition and potential for conflict, <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2014/09/">as does overpopulation</a>. According to the “<a href="http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2019.pdf">The Global Risks Report 2019</a>, 14<sup>th</sup> Edition” of the World Economic Forum the geopolitical risks are on the rise. In its foreword it explicitly asks rhetorically: </span><br />
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<i><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">“Is the world sleepwalking into a crisis? Global risks are intensifying but the collective will to tackle them appears to be lacking. Instead, divisions are hardening. The world’s move into a new phase of strongly state-centred politics, noted in last year’s Global Risks Report, continued throughout 2018. The idea of “taking back control”— whether domestically from political rivals or externally from multilateral or supranational organizations— resonates across many countries and many issues. The energy now expended on consolidating or recovering national control risks weakening collective responses to emerging global challenges. We are drifting deeper into global problems from which we will struggle to extricate ourselves.” </span></i><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Obviously, our leaders are collectively heading into the wrong direction. They don’t do that just by their own discretion, as we have to concede. Nevertheless, it’s time to mobilize appropriate counterforces. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Where is the resistance?</span></h1>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But where are the young people, who later have to pay the bill?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Do they just let it all happen to them? Or do they even believe the barely hidden agendas of the devious elites? Are they willing to be instrumentalized? Do they still have hope, while should know it better? Or have they already given up inside and just apathetically play their role in the end-time game? Have they defiantly but despondently withdrawn into the cocoon of a small, private life? </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">One thing can be said for sure: certainly, they are not rebellious.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Of course, there are some iconic exceptions, well-known for a while, pushed by media and possible interested groups. In some cases, they have been awarded prizes, sedated by public honours, inserted as a well-dosed opposition into a likewise well-functioning system. The role assigned to them then is to add credibility to those in charge, to assure all those who maintain their doubts: Look, people, we take you seriously, we listen, you have your important place in society - and then we continue as we did before. Anyway, the show must go on.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Let’s randomly pick and mention a few examples, representing all the others, who didn’t make it into the public consciousness. But even they quickly did or will fall victim to public amnesia.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malala_Yousafzai">Malala Yousafzai</a> a prominent Pakistani activist of the Pashto tribe, who engaged for the right to education for girls. In 2014 she was awarded with the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Nobel_Peace_Prize">Nobel Peace Prize</a>, making her one of the youngest Nobel prize laureates ever. Two years earlier she nearly had to pay with her life for her activism, when she was shot by a gunman of the so-called <i>Taliban</i> in an assassination attempt.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emma_Gonz%C3%A1lez">Emma González</a>, an American activist and advocate for gun control. As a high school senior she survived the February 2018 Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, Florida. In response she co-founded the gun-control advocacy group <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Never_Again_MSD">Never Again MSD</a>. Her touching <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u46HzTGVQhg">speech</a> is still or even more worth listening to.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greta_Thunberg">Greta Thunberg</a>, a 15 years old Swedish school girl, was recently in the headlines, when she refused to go to school to get politicians to act on the looming climate crisis. Her actions indeed gained worldwide attention. She inspired school students across the globe to participate in student strikes.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">All three selected activists are girls. I am not sure, if this is just a coincidence. Each of them took action for a different reason, targeted different nuisances, calamities, threats. All in common have the limited effect on the course of the world, while global societies are racing with high and even accelerating speed towards the dead end of the road. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">One more remark on the last person in the list, who is about to lead an international movement: One may not want to trust the students, who are truanting school lessons, to have a lasting influence on the course of the world. It is well easy to blame them for their actions, to criticise them. They however hold one precious ingredient in their hands: moral legitimacy. Who if not them, who will later have to shoulder the burden of the ‘relentless unforeseen’, has more right to stand up against the prevailing political ignorance?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The stupidest of all objections, which immediately backfired, was brought forward by the leader of the German Liberal Party, Christian Linder. He in all seriousness stated that the protesting students should leave such complicated things as actions against climate change to the professionals. By that he most probably first and foremost meant himself. Let's once again make ourselves clear what distinguishes a professional from the rest of the world: He does his job not out of his own inclination, as an amateur would, but as a profession, i.e. for money. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">It is precisely these professionals who have led the world to the edge of the abyss. In their hubris they also have the chutzpah and arrogance to tell us that we should please let the fox guard the chicken - again. How stupid do they think we are? Well, obviously very stupid.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Contemplation </span></h1>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So folks, having read all this, what exactly now should be done, can be done? As giving up definitely is not an option, something needs to be done, some swift and bold actions to be taken. Time is running out, if it isn’t too late already. Should a new political party be founded, one that is better than the existing ones? Should we vigorously funnel our concerns into the established political channels? Should we keep on protesting until those we put in charge finally wake up to reality?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Well, maybe all of that. Of course, corrective actions are necessary, even overdue. But first the world needs to be shaken by clear and powerful message. To do so, we have to agree on the core message. Next we need to spread it globally. “Think global, act locally” to me appears to be more than convenient buzzword for playing bullshit bingo. We should rather take it as an imperative.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">There can be no doubt that the current major challenges are global by their very nature. They will affect us globally. They will not be successfully addressed by a single heroic act of a single responsibly acting state or region, but ask for a joint global effort.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">On the other hand, the environment for political activities is set up differently according to local conditions. In democracies indeed a new political party could be the vehicle of choice. In countries under authoritarian rule a kind of civil disobedience of the majority would need to prepare the ground for some more enlightened activities. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">My advice is twofold: </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">1<sup>st</sup> convene & commit, </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">2<sup>nd</sup> agitate & act</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Why should we deliberately weaken our forces by splitting them into several units?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Let me briefly explain, what I mean …</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Political day-to-day business can sometimes become stressful and turbulent. The actors, especially when they are still in their initial phase, all too easily experience the pressure of established forces. Occasionally they may tempted to give in, to agree to dirty deals, just to save a tiny bit of their original noble intention, in short: to deviate from the principles they once set for themselves, hereby betraying them. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Also, as mentioned before, political actions, at least nowadays are local by their nature whereas the principles need to be global in order to allow a sustaining life on earth. And finally not only our goals need to be adjusted, the political programs reshaped, our targets recalibrated. The operational mode of performing politics itself needs to undergo a fundamental change in order to better cope with our human weaknesses, which onto today managed to compromise even the noblest intentions. But more on this further down in this text.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So we deem it wise to separate imagination from implementation, principles from politics, and rules from ruling, just like legislation an execution should be well separated in a properly governed state. Principles and rules should better be elaborated and maintained by a separate organization unaffected by the hardships and deceptive temptations of everyday political life. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Convene & Commit</span></h2>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">To unfold even the slightest impact, we <b><i>first</i></b> need to become many, I mean assemble all those concerned individuals, who consider themselves as world citizens to some kind of group. Let’s call it the <a href="https://www.worldcitizensleague.org/">world citizen league</a> for now. The sole purpose of this separate organisation will be defining and refining these principles and rules and publishing them. That’s all – nothing more, nothing else.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><i>Second</i></b> we ought to agree to a few basic principles. Some of which should be unalterable, others, on a lower level, so fundamental that can be changed only through the vote of a overwhelming majority and below those, principles which remain open for frequent discussion and occasional alteration via simple majority.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><i>Thirdly</i></b> we should publicly commit to these self-imposed principles and vow to act according to them. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Once we happen to achieve these three stated goals, we will create a voice which cannot be ignored any longer but needs to be listened to.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Agitate & Act</span></h2>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Political activists, pressure groups, parties may then refer to these world citizen principles, incorporate them into their programs and agendas and locally implement them locally in ways which could never be foreseen centrally from a global perspective.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">This chapter is deliberately left short as, following the above statement, there is not much we can say here about how to implement these principles in effective action. However the principles themselves will shape the actions to be taken as they not just focus on the political message but gives hints how to run political operations as well.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Principles</span></h2>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Mandatory principles</span></h2>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#1. Sustainable life</span></h3>
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2083165113284207665" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Principle: </b>All our deliberate human activities must integrate into a sustainable model of coexistence with each others and with all other living beings of this planet, which is best suited to ensure a long-term survival of humanity. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Rationale</b>: Ensuring the on-going existence of mankind is the dominating goal. Next to it there can be no other goals of equal rank, but prerequisites and derived goals. An obvious prerequisite is the preservation or restoration of a healthy and sustainably habitable environment. So we have to put an end to all <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2017/07/inherently-unsustainable.html">unsustainable economic activity</a>. All other goals are of a lower rank and need to be subordinated to the fundamental ueber-goal #1.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#2: Preserving civil liberties</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Principle: </b>We follow principle #1 with the utmost diligence while granting as much of the individual’s civil liberties as possible without being detrimental to principle #1. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Rationale</b>: To stop looting this planet and to eventually repair the damage, that has already been done so far, certainly requires a huge joint effort. It is hard to imagine that all individuals on this planet will voluntarily join any initiative, which intends to take up with this gigantic project. Rather we will have to act globally as a community. This means getting organized and disciplined to a much higher degree than it has ever been done outside of strictly authoritarian regimes. As following principle #1 may be conflicting with following principle #2, our vision of a free and self-determined life will be put to the test. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_liberties">civil liberties</a>, which we hold deer in Europe and some other parts of the world may well become threatened. We surely must be cautious not to lose too much of what we have achieved in this respect during the last 300 years since the dawn of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Enlightenment">enlightenment</a>. For this reason, ‘Preserving civil liberties’ is the only secondary goal to stay unaltered under all conditions.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Essential principles</span></h2>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#3: The nation state had its time </span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Principle:</b> A few supranational bodies need to replace the current multiple nation states. Ultimately one single multi-nation state will remain.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Rationale</b>: Nation states, as we know them, will not be capable to successfully face the current and future challenges. We think, feel and act as world citizens. Facing common challenges, we need to act as one community – the <a href="https://www.worldcitizensleague.org/">world citizens</a>. In terms of governance in mid-term time frames a few <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/05/europe-which-europe.html">supranational bodies</a> need to replace the multiple nation states, which are currently competing for the scarce resources of this planet. Eventually there will be no alternative to some consolidated world governance, resulting in statehood for a federated United Nations. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#4: Reduce world population </span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Principle: </b>We need to actively manage the world population</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Rationale</b>: The world population number is by far the most impactful key factor for any globally sustainable human life. Several <a href="https://wwf.panda.org/knowledge_hub/teacher_resources/webfieldtrips/ecological_balance/eco_footprint/">foot print</a> calculations, best expressed in the yearly world <a href="https://www.overshootday.org/">overshoot day</a>, as well as simple logic teach us that there will be an upper <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2015/02/what-fools-these-mortals-be.html">limit to the number of humans</a> this planet is able to sustainable nourish. Assuming to take the average standard of living and of resource consumption of economically advanced countries as the global standard, simple logic, once applied, tells us that it is too late already, as <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/04/too-late-we-are-too-many-already-daily.html">we are too many</a> by now. Short term goal must be to stabilize world population well below the magic number of 10 billion. On the long run we will be compelled to reduce the total world population again. The maximum sustainable number is still unknown. It is expected however to be considerably lower than the current unsustainable world population. In the end it might be not much higher than 1 to 2 billion heads.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#5: No more professional politicians</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Principle:</b> Let machines rule our daily affairs – according to human made principles & rules.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Rationale</b>: Politics is too precious an art to leave it to politicians. While there is much consensus to be found that the much-desired <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/jul/03/myth-strong-leader-political-leadership-modern-age-archie-brown-review">mythical strong leader</a> to ‘pull us out of the morass’ and ‘lead us to the promised land’ will do more bad than good. In states under democratic rule too the elected and mandated politicians after a short while overwhelmingly just <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-political-career.html">care for their own career</a> as political professionals. At best they will be just dominated and, in the end, corrupted by the hunt for voters for their parties and themselves. The temptation of populism is their permanent companion. They fall prey to lobbyists or simply lose touch with the mundane problems of their original voter’s base. In corporate management there is a early movement considering to "get rid of the managers" (e.g.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Hlk6498048"> Ricardo Semler, whose </a><a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/ricardo_semler_how_to_run_a_company_with_almost_no_rules?language=en">TED Talk</a> went viral). Still considered as esoteric by the majority of orthodox scholars they demand to redefine the term “manager”, and question whether the idea of “management” as it was inherited from the industrial era, has outlived its usefulness. As the ‘<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/031815/what-role-agency-theory-corporate-governance.asp">agent dilemma</a>’ applies to governments as well as to business corporations, the operational acting power needs to be taken away from the ‘professionals’ and rather transferred to systems. Let humans contribute to <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/08/a-case-for-meta-politics.html">Meta politics</a>. But <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/05/let-algorithms-rule-not-politicians.html">let systems rule – not politicians</a>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#6: Limitation of inequality</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Principle:</b> Economic inequality needs to be limited to an upper bound.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Rationale</b>: “All men are created equal” states the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Declaration_of_Independence">US Declaration of Independence</a>. The idea was adopted from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Enlightenment">European Enlightenment philosophy</a> and likewise found its way into several other constitutions. It is safe to equal "all men" with humanity in this context. Of course, it was never the intention to ‘make’ all humans being equal. Rather the goal was to grant them equal chances. Even equal chances were more of a program, or even a dream than ever reality. For economists inequality is a prime driver of economic growth – the higher the inequality, the higher the growth rate. Indeed, the ability to differentiate from others seems to be a driving force. Leading us humans to undertake great efforts to be different, unequal. However, there are limits to these beneficial effects. One inequality, e.g. measured by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atkinson_index">Atkinson index</a> introduced by <a href="https://www.tony-atkinson.com/">Sir Anthony B. Atkinson</a> rises to a degree where the worlds wealth concentrates in the hand of a few (and we not very far away from this situation), where a few <a href="http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/sovereign-individual.html">sovereign individuals</a> can steer the fate on the masses, where economic power seamlessly blends with political influence, inequality has the potential to tear societies apart. In economy markets are very efficient instruments - as long as they don’t degrade. They need to supervised and regulated in order not to run astray. Besides that, there are several areas like the infamous ‘<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/natural_monopoly.asp">natural monopolies</a>’ or limited natural resources, where free markets don’t work at all. In history there are many examples of harsh corrective action taken by states like anti-trust regulations, forced split up of corporations and other measures how to deal with this problem. Likewise, we have to find measures to limit inequality in order not to risk the bloodshed of a revolution. Maybe <a href="https://www.tony-atkinson.com/the-15-proposals-from-tony-atkinsons-inequality-what-can-be-done/">Tony Atkinsons 15 proposals</a> may give us some guidance.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">#7: Steady state economy </span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Principle:</b> establish and run an economy which can be in a healthy state even with zero growth.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b>Rationale</b>: economical growth cannot be any longer the underlying paradigm of all economic theories. Our current economy however is structured for growth. When consumption slows in a growth economy, recession ensues. Saying goes that failure to grow causes economic turmoil and unemployment. Surely no one wants that. Population growth is one of the major drivers of economic growth. But world population growth needs to be stopped very soon and rather reversed to a certain degree over the coming decades. Also exploitation of natural resources will soon be limited in either or the other way. Technological progress may still provide growth via increase of productivity and the creation of new markets for immaterial goods. Traditional ‘scientific’ orthodoxy however still has to find ways to deal with the fact that this kind of economy will not very likely resemble the proclaimed growth economy, but rather some kind of stationary economy.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">A final word</span></h2>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">As this paper certainly is not the right place to elaborate the complete driving principles, all world citizens should commit to, I will limit its number just to 7. Those are fundamental principles. They need to be augmented further and detailed several levels deeper to eventually result in executable rules. Balancing these often-conflicting basic principles certainly will be a monstrous task. It will require years of work dedicated by a larger group of devoted people. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">To act as a community for our future, we must be that community. No one else will. And we have to do it now. The ruling no-future generation will not like it. But there is no time to lose if we don’t want to end as the renowned Australian scientist Professor Frank Fenner predicts “<a href="https://phys.org/news/2010-06-humans-extinct-years-eminent-scientist.html">Humans will be extinct in 100 years</a>”.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So, stand up and convene & commit.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Horst Walther (<a href="mailto:horst.walther@worldcitizensleague.org">horst.walther@worldcitizensleague.org</a>) <br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Also published <a href="https://www.diplomatic-council.org/node/484" target="_blank">here </a>and <a href="https://worldcitizensleague.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-no-future-generation.html" target="_blank">here</a></span></div>
Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30383251.post-48266866620616573522018-11-11T22:48:00.000+01:002018-11-11T22:48:04.357+01:00The political career<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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"<i>He doesn't bite. He just wants to play</i>," dog owners tend to state about their tail-wagging, four-legged best friends.<br />
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Using a similar statement, I like to start my characterisation of contemporary politicians:<br />
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"<i>They have no plans to make politics; </i><i>They only want to advance their careers.</i>”<br />
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So, don't worry, things are not as bad as they seem. Despite all thunderous speeches, no harm is to be expected. The political message is anyway crafted just to please the majority of potential voters. Successfully advancing on the career path is the sole criterion. <br />
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But a caveat should be expressed here: what is said applies only to organisations in which it is worthwhile, in which there is an attractive career to follow - and the political programme is anyway determined more by opinion polls than by one's own convictions. On the extreme right and left of the political spectrum, things usually look different. Actors here still pursue their conviction, follow their mission - at least at the beginning.<br />
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Will this process bless us with the political elite, which we believe we need? Probably not.<br />
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Let us postpone for a moment the question of whether we really need a "political elite". But rather contemplate why don't we get it in this way either?<br />
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Well, the instinctive, quickly responding jungle fighter is not the same as the far-sighted leader at his lonely hill top. To be able to instantaneously assess every suspicious rustling in the twilight of the undergrowth, in which every newbie begins his or her career, to recognize if a faint shadow hints at a threat, to form tactical alliances for an appropriate time span, in short: survival skills, are essential for the ascent. Otherwise the ambitious newcomer will not survive the first few days in the back rooms of endlessly stretching committee meetings. But do these skills also qualify to lead a government agency, a state?<br />
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Of course, a survival of the fittest, a selection most capable is conducted here. Those who win, are not simply dummies - well, in general not. But it is a special selection. Like any other ascent within a hierarchy the traditional political career in this country as in others on its "long march" from the fresh novice to the powerful party leader has to climb through different stages. It goes without saying that the skills required of the candidates vary from level to level. The selection process needs to begin anew at each level, perhaps occasionally resulting in no suitable candidate being available.<br />
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Snakes and other reptiles, as well as insects, skin themselves when they want to grow. This is what careerists do in corporate hierarchies. That's what is done in the course of a party career too. They simply morph into a new role, sometimes into a new identity, change their habits, occasionally their environment, dump their old contacts and replace them by new ones. They "acquire" the required optimal skill set for this role. It's all just a question of engineering, of management. <br />
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Hmmm, does it work like that? Is it that simple? There is one more thing. At some stage you also have to think about how you will be viewed by the public. In spite of all your qualifications, you have to have to appear authentic. For that you have to be able to show some cleverly designed peculiarities, forgivable weaknesses and personal traits, maybe even a certain folkloric heritage. Because later the people will finally also be the electorate.<br />
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But the hard work of the loyal party members at the base must also be rewarded too. Otherwise in the end there might not be any sedan bearers for the powerful. Every pyramid needs its base. So, there are also alternative ways to the top - maybe even without going through 7 moults.<br />
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But that's what it's all about, the way up, which many equate with the way to power, power over others.<br />
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This machinery has been working like this for a long time. It has already produced entire generations of politicians, including those whose lack of foresight we deplore so much, whose party bickering gets on our nerves, whom we do not trust to guide us safely through the perils that lie ahead of us on the uncertain path to the future.<br />
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So if we want a new, a completely different political elite, it seems that it must be created by other mechanisms, perhaps without a classical career.<br />
But is this political elite really necessary? In the digital age, is the professional politician, who is capable of everything, but of nothing else 😊, actually still up to date?<br />
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My answer here is a clear no.<br />
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Politics is too important to be left to politicians, who - see above - do not want to "bite" at all. We obviously need a completely different system to come to political decisions, to regulate, to govern.<br />
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We do not have this system today. Most probably we do have consensus on that. I do not know any consolidated and accepted theories on how it should look like. In the absence of any reliable third party to take the burden for us, inconveniently we have to think ourselves, to stepwise approach the solution ourselves - preferably deductively, top-down.<br />
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My thesis is: Less humans - more program, according to the well-known graffito "No power for nobody".</span><div>
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Party programs have been around for a long time. Every party has one. Few voters have ever read one or even built their election decisions on it. In most cases, they are rather vague and kept in a general diction so as not to unnecessarily restrict the political scope of the actors involved. Accordingly, they seldom provide decisive assistance in concrete decision-making cases.<br />
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The word "programme" generally has at least two meanings: One is the party program in question. In the context of computers of all kinds it is equated with a deterministic calculation prescription. What would it be like if we merge both variants? I have already thought about this <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/05/let-algorithms-rule-not-politicians.html" target="_blank">elsewhere</a>. I don't want to repeat them here. Just this much can be said: In the end and in the long run I expect algorithms to be the better politicians.<br />
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Will politicians then become jobless? No, they become programmers - party programmers. Perhaps then we will no longer need professional politicians, or at least not that many. Part-time or after-work politicians can also participate in the drafting, voting and extensive testing of the rules. The path to more direct democracy, which delvers rather dysfunctional results when done via popular petitions and similar actions – maybe except in Switzerland (more on this <a href="https://horst-walther.blogspot.com/2018/05/" target="_blank">here </a>@ "</span><span style="font-family: calibri, verdana, sans-serif;">5. Time for more direct democracy?"</span><span style="font-family: calibri, verdana, sans-serif;">) - is thus paved by a regulated participation in the body of rules with the help of contemporary electronic communication.</span></div>
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A permanent party conference like a Facebook chat? Yes, why not? Code is law – the <a href="https://www.activism.net/cypherpunk/manifesto.html" target="_blank">Cypher Punk movement</a> has known that for long already.</span></div>
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Horst Waltherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03381708015477095465noreply@blogger.com0