Challenges abound
The earth overshoot day is marking the day when humanity has consumed as much resources as may be used sustainably per year at maximum. That day tends to occur earlier each year, as the world population grows, and we tend to consumer more resource per capita each year.
Only last year did it appear later than the year before on 2020-08-22. It is not difficult to see that the measures taken to combat the CoVid-19 pandemic are responsible for this extraordinary effect. Nevertheless, this does not at all mean that we can give the all-clear. On the contrary, if you look at a graphical representation of the annual positioning of Earth Overshoot Day over the last 50 years, you could easily confuse it with a burn-down diagram as used in modern agile project management. ^
Only difference is, that we don’t reduce a product backlog here, but burn down the entire planet, right down to zero. To not let this happen, now, more than ever seems it necessary to take a worldwide coordinated action. In the end the mere survival of mankind along with any higher life on this planet is at stake.
If the whole world consumed at the level of the average U.S. citizen, that day would already be in February. But the rest of the world, and especially the developing part of it, is aiming exactly in that direction. And you can't even blame them for that. Why and with what right would one want to deprive them of what others have been able to enjoy for years. In China alone, 2 billion stamping feet set out before the third millennium to take the step into a better life with diligence, energy and determination. They have every right to do so. And yet - there will not be enough for all of us.
Time to act
This makes it all the more important now to take coordinated, appropriate measures worldwide to find a way out of this threatening situation. The resources that are still available must be better distributed, a sustainable form of economic activity must be found, and in the medium to long term the earth's population, which is still growing at a breath-taking pace, must be reduced to a sustainable level again
Of course, sustainability starts with the lifestyle of each individual, the family, the local community. We could eat less to no meat, take the bicycle instead of the SUV, reduce air travel to distant vacation destinations. That might already help - a little.
Overcoming the negative systemic impacts of human economic activity, however, is a bit more challenging. As long as humans have existed, we have caused harmful impacts on our environment. Everywhere we have gone, we have driven some species to extinction. The mammoth, the moa, the giant sloth, and many others have been welcomed as giant piles of meat and consumed to the point of total extinction. The "noble savage" obviously never existed.
The insidious savage, however, seems to live on. We live just in the so-called sixth extinction phase. Hunting, as the most archaic form of predation, is not yet banned in any country, nor is fishing. On the contrary, it is considered a basic civil right in some legislations. The extent of these activities is even increasing.
Agriculture, the next stage of civilization's achievements, brings little relief to nature. Even so-called organic farming still locks nature out of vast swaths of land, degrades land, and yet is unable to feed the world. Highly productive modern high-input industrial agriculture may meet growing food demand for a while longer, but at the price of even more rapid and extensive resource consumption. A form of food-producing circular economy is not yet in sight.
We are obviously trapped here, unable to move in any direction because any movement would be punished by market forces. In the past, the entire internal structure of an entire industry changed only when these same market forces built up pressure that favoured alternative solutions such as synthetic rubber, fuels from coal, sugar from beets instead of sugar cane.
Of course, market forces are environmentally agnostic. Resource scarcity, changing consumer demand or changing regulations are the drivers here. Only after the damage is done, so if we wait that long, will they respond to dwindling resources.
While consumers might change their demand, driven by new insights leading to new beliefs - it is a low probability scenario. The remaining means of regulatory control elsewhere requires powerful actors to influence these globally interconnected systems. The level of nation states is too low to have an impact. Above that, there are no institutions capable of taking action.
Those National states indeed represent the next level of Governance. Here through legislative and other governmental activities quite noticeable effects can be achieved. So, several countries have set targets until when to phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles, ranging from 2025 (Belgium) and 2050 (Costa Rica) widely differing in scope and determination. So, one is not idle at this level. However, one could object: too late, too little and not coordinated.
All these actions, as hart-warming they may seem, may be sincere and may have been hard fought for. Perhaps they have the character of cover-ups of inactivity. Perhaps more was simply not achievable on the current political stage. Interestingly, in the light of these demands, China's long pursued and often scolded one-child policy was perhaps, in retrospect, one of the wisest decisions of mankind. Without it, we might already be in the midst of a famine catastrophe of unimaginable proportions.
Yet, much more needs to be done, worldwide, coordinated on a global scale. To stop devastating he planet we need to act as a community of world citizens.
The world stage
In search of the next level of decisive, organized action, we finally enter world stage, currently dominated by to major topics: The CoVid-19 Pandemic and the growing China-US antagonism. Obviously, there is no world community, determined, decisive and effective enough to confront the challenges and enforce solutions.
The pandemic alone would require a global response. Yet it is rather used for sowing division. Jamie P. Horsley on Wednesday, August 19, 2020 soberly summarized US attempts to blame others of theirs own failures: “According to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, “today we’re all still wearing masks and watching the pandemic’s body count rise because the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] failed in its promises to the world.” This was just on example of the Trump administration blaming China, particularly the Chinese Communist Party, for the COVID-19 pandemic that surfaced in Wuhan, Hubei Province at the end of 2019. China, in turn, has accused the United States of mismanagement and failure to take the pandemic seriously.”
Originally it was the US president Donald Trump, who even urged the UN to hold China accountable for the coronavirus pandemic. There were even attempts emerging in the US for a legislation to hold China accountable for its alleged coronavirus deception. Just for a second try to imagine any actor on the political world stage launching legal action against countries where AIDS or Ebola once originated.
This blame game has been and remains a serious distraction from the essential and difficult work needed to control this terrible disease. But the tone set. It perfectly reflects the current general US stance on China.
Where is Europe?
The fragmented European political landscape, for a good part consisting of dwarf states can safely regarded just as US vassals. So, decisions taking in the US, to maintain the pretence of a genuinely autonomous decision, with some decent delay is nevertheless executed in Europe.
But is it really in Europe’s interest just following American footsteps, fighting American wars I the middle east – at least a little bit, to block Russian Gas and Chinese 5G products in favour of American brands?
We should be aware that all that China bashing, made in the USA, is rooted in a Renewed Great Power Competition, which is going on since a few years. Or in other words: “Everyone Wants to Crack Down on China—Except Silicon Valley”. Yet US policy, and the Biden administration will be not exception, besides in style, leaves the world increasingly polarized: “Nuance and distinctions will not help win the political battle,” says Eileen Donahoe, a former Obama official who directs Stanford University’s Global Digital Policy Incubator. “Donald Trump has succeeded in controlling the dominant political narrative with a simplistic political idea-‘China bad.’”
Another interesting coincidence, sadly demonstrates the tool character of western journalism. You can simply call it propaganda, not much different from state the controlled media they so eagerly criticise. I mean the sad twin events of the Chinese Lawyer-Turned-Citizen Journalist Zhang Zhan receiving 4 years prison for Wuhan Posts (reported by US media) and the Saudi terrorism court having sentenced women’s rights activist Loujain al-Hathloul to five years and eight months in prison, on charges including agitating for change, pursuing a foreign agenda and using the internet to harm public order (reluctantly covered by western media but reported by Al Jazeera). The likewise simplistic message to the unconscious western public: ‘Saudi Arabia good’).
Usually, we Europeans tend to blindly follow any US policy. In cases, when we don’t, like in the case of the North Stream Pipeline (whether its construction was a wise decision or not) we get an educational slap in the face by our elder brother. In this increasingly polarized world order, we are not even asked to pick sides. We are just expected to follow.
What is just starting in Europe, seem to be in full swing in other regions, which tend to follow every U.S. impulse thoughtlessly, mindlessly, and without thinking twice, are on step further already. Australia’s ties with China e.g. as Bloomberg reports, have been fraught since 2018 when Canberra barred Huawei Technologies Co. from building its 5G network on “national security grounds”. They went into the deep freeze earlier this year after Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government called for an international inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus. As Mohamed A. El-Erian on a Bloomberg comment points out : As such, the cost of Australia’s running the dual-option model will continue to rise - for countries that pursue it too, including Canada and Singapore.
The more the U.S. flexes its muscles and China reacts accordingly, the greater the risk that the dual-option countries will be forced to pick sides, especially on certain technologies. That would imply additional short-term adjustments and fragmentation pressures for a global economy that is dealing with the biggest growth hit it has suffered for several decades; increasing inequality of income, wealth and opportunity both within and across countries; growing economic and financial disparities; and a multilateral system that is challenged in responding to common shocks.
Even with the ouster of Donald Trump, who had been instrumental in driving this development, the situation is no more relaxed. So far, there are no signs that his successor Joe Biden will dismantle trade barriers again which have been erected by the predecessor administration.
It hasn’t always been that way. From the Shanghai Communique signed in 1972, in which the U.S. and China together sought to counter hegemony in the Asia-Pacific, to the present day, wherein the U.S. sees China as a strategic threat, and a “near peer competitor” in the Indo-Pacific, the relationship has come full circle.
For its allies and partners, who may one day need to choose between the U.S. and China, it will become less attractive siding with Washington. For Beijing, the very fact that U.S. allies and partners are increasingly finding it hard to side with Washington is already a win. The question is: how can Beijing and Washington compel each other to change their respective routes to global primacy?
As with the last Cold War, there could be a clear winner in the long run. As with all predictions, we can't yet be sure who to bet on. But we can certainly name one clear loser - it will be the planet, which means all of us.
The imperative
For Europe the new trend that, from China to the US, the ‘Self-Reliance’ Slogan is back, could be a chance for an independent role, a chance it should seize. From an independent position, a united Europe could play a major role in mediating between both adversaries, hereby avoiding potentially catastrophic miscalculations by either party. Rooted in the western tradition like the US, actually its origin, but located together with China on the same “world island” to use Halford John Mackinder's more than 100-year-old term, Europe could play the role of mediator between the two adversaries. In any case, the world would no longer be bipolar - if only Europe would wake up.
Compared to the upcoming challenges outlined at the beginning, the great power competition, as universal and timeless as its rules may seem, appears like a 19th century game. Our planet’s burn down chart will show no mercy. Leaving all other developments unchecked, the source scarcity alone will someday let the machine stop. Before then, in the range of a few decades, we will feel the crippling effects of man-made climate change. Not to mention immediate short-term threats such as societal inequality or the threat of nuclear weapons use.
What they all have in common is that they can only be overcome, once we citizens of the world start seeing ourselves as world citizens and start acting as a community with a common cause.
As time is running out, there is simply no room for a renewal of the Great Game, a new US vs. China cold war or any other great power competition.
In order to avoid falling into Thucydides’ Trap or re-enacting the Tragedy of the commons , we must abandon many outdated behaviours. For the moment, to be sure, everything looks like the tragedy of power politics unfolding with somnambulistic determination, as if following a textbook. What we would need instead, and more than ever, is a resurrection of reason from its postmodern grave. It will be up to existing institutions and those to be created or empowered to take the necessary action. But "We the People" of the world must drive them to do so.
However, if we choose to continue to follow the traditional well-trodden paths, the Earth will end up helping itself - with bleak consequences for us all.
