Nouriel Robini aka. “Mr. Doom” did it again – and again. Asked for his takeaways from this year’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos he claimed that the world is facing mounting threats and already existing problems, but still heading to the wrong direction.
“We must bear in mind that our world is dominated far more by human stupidity than by AI. The proliferation of megathreats – each an element in the broader “polycrisis” – confirms that our politics are too dysfunctional, and our policies too misguided, to address even the most serious and obvious risks to our future. These include climate change, which will have huge economic costs; failed states, which will make waves of climate refugees even larger; and recurrent, virulent pandemics that could be even more economically damaging than COVID-19.
Making matters worse, dangerous geopolitical rivalries are evolving into new cold wars – such as between the United States and China – and into potentially explosive hot wars, like those in Ukraine and the Middle East. Around the world, rising income and wealth inequality, partly driven by hyper-globalization and labour-saving technologies, have triggered a backlash against liberal democracy, creating opportunities for populist, autocratic, and violent political movements.
Unsustainable levels of private and public debt threaten to precipitate debt and financial crises, and we may yet see a return of inflation and stagflationary negative aggregate supply shocks. The broader trend globally is toward protectionism, de-globalization, de-coupling, and de-dollarization.”
The dominant topic at the WEF, as expected, was artificial intelligence and its potential for both positive and negative impacts. But rather than perceiving AI as a useful tool to help solving the long list above, it was itself added to the list, whereas the list itself seemed to be accepted as a unalterable fate.
Can’t we make good use of Artificial Intelligence to counter Human Stupidity?
In the following her lists a few of the scientific and technological domain where AI could unfold its potentially beneficial influence. All agreeable, however farfetched a few of them may be. He e.g. expresses hope that such utopian sources of energy supply like nuclear fusion reactors could become more science than fiction.
In this context we should remind ourselves that any such reactor be it conventional or futuristic will just produce heat at first. That heat might subsequently be transformed to other forms and shapes of energy, electric, chemical and the like. If it is just that, we should not forget that we are already residing on one big reactor. There is no need to create a new one. It is just a few kilometres away of each consumer. Only those few kilometres are measured vertically: It our good old earth, which’s thin crust we are dwelling on.
We have to admit that taking our backward drilling technologies tapping from that vast potential is still rather costly – but by far cheaper than any nuclear technology. In addition, it would be in steady supply, relatively safe and rather local.
Maybe this is a topic where AI could enlighten us further, providing a counterweight to our human stupidity.
Closing a Blog Post dating back January 2020 I once stated:
“One idea, which crossed my mind recently, has not yet been discussed widely. It might well be one of those ‘other factors we have not even thought of yet’ determining our future direction. Couldn’t it well be that a Super-AI, once created and enjoying an independent life, be the saviour, rather than the terminator of humanity? Saving Humanity from itself in the end?
Some specially gifted humans usually only at the end of their lives, while summing up their life long experiences are endowed, with some insight, which we call wisdom. So why should it be beyond imagination that an artificial super-intelligence, after it has left all competition behind and won all battles, after it is the only one left and unchallenged, reaches a certain wisdom of old age and, very much like the overlords in Arthur C. Clarkes Childhood's End, orders the world in such a way that it will be able to live permanently in peace and prosperity - humanity and AI?
Will this then result in AW (Artificial Wisdom)?”
Nouriel in a similar manner concludes – with some caveat however:
"These and many other technologies could change the world for the better, but only if we can manage their negative side effects, and only if they are used to resolve all the megathreats we face. One hopes that artificial intelligence someday will overcome human stupidity. But it will never get the chance if we destroy ourselves first."
A further elaboration on this exotic thought is due, however deserves a publication on its own. So, I may take it a a self-imposed obligation.
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