I spontaneously wrote the following lines when our fateful year 2024 was still in its infancy, yet no langer innocent. Those days I for any reason hesitated releasing it to the public. Maybe I feared to have been misguided by Ian Bremmer’s dark vision of things to come. Three more months down the line I found out that “there is an infinite amount of hope in the universe ... but not for us.” (Franz Kafka).
The turn of the year is often an opportunity for me to think a little further back and forward - what has the past year given us, what do we expect from the new year - what changes have the past decades brought about, what promises and threats do the coming decades hold?
And then I read Ian Bremmer’s, President at Eurasia Group. Extremely dire outlook
It’s the annus horribilis,
The Voldemort of years,
The year that must not be spoken,
Welcome to 2024
He a few days later he elaborated a bit more on it (Why 2024 is the Voldemort of years), painting a picture of year ahead of us such bleak, as if the adverse currents, which had been nourished by forgetfulness, complacency or outright ignorance for several years, if not decades, were now to culminate.
Having been roaming the earth for nearly three quarters of a century, I remember that going back a 60 years Bob Dylan shared a different worldview with us …
Come senators, congressmen, please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway, don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt will be he who has stalled
The battle outside ragin'
Will soon shake your windows and rattle your walls
For the times, they are a-changin'
When released in 1964 on the album of the same name, "The Times They Are A-Changin'" captured the spirit of social and political upheaval that defined the 1960s. Becoming one of Bob Dylan's most famous songs, it was serving as an anthem for change and a rallying cry for the civil rights and anti-war movements of the era.
The early 1960s were a time of significant change in the United States and around the world. The civil rights movement, the rise of the counterculture, and increasing opposition to the Vietnam War were all brewing. Dylan felt the winds of change and was inspired to write about them.
With the blessing of hindsight, it safe to state, we indeed were and still are experiencing the change – albeit different for those original expectations.
The world is no longer “flat”
In April 5, 2005 Pulitzer Prize-winning writer and New York times columnist, Thomas L. Friedman had published his latest book book “The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century “. By analysing the impact of globalization, primarily in the early 21st century he suggested the world has a more level playing field for commerce in which most competitors, except for labour, have an equal opportunity.
In this meanwhile seemingly long-gone era Friedman, who was at times called “the voice of liberal America” suggested that countries, companies, and individuals need to remain competitive in a global market. Historical and geographic divisions were less important. The “end of history” with only liberal democracies seemed near. At that point in time the first fissures of that flat world should have been visible already. The geo-political plate tectonics driving the spheres of the major two contenders apart, had started well before that date.
With a suffocating sanctions regime, decoupling of economies and the weaponization of nearly all non-military power a geo-political rift valley grew since Americas traumatic Nine-eleven-event with the prospect of eventually widening into a new ocean, separating two very distinct and different worlds.
Switzerland is no longer ‘Switzerland’
Switzerland's traditional stance of neutrality has been a cornerstone of its identity. However, the Ukraine-Russia war has tested these waters, with Switzerland facing pressure to align more closely with Western sanctions and policies.
- Advocates for this shift argue that in the face of clear aggression, neutrality becomes an untenable position. They suggest that Switzerland must evolve with the times and take a stand against blatant violations of international law.
- Critics, however, maintain that abandoning neutrality undermines Switzerland's unique position and credibility in international diplomacy. They warn that this could drag the nation into conflicts that it has historically avoided.
In any case the result is an increased polarisation.
The Green Party is no longer green
The German Greens, once staunch advocates for pacifism and environmentalism, have faced criticism for their perceived shift in stance upon joining the government. The party's support for military aid in the Ukraine conflict marks a significant departure from its original mission.
- Their leaders argue that the Greens are adapting to the complexities of governing and the realities of a world where security threats cannot be ignored. They claim that the party is demonstrating a mature approach to balancing idealism with the practical need to protect democratic values.
- On the other hand, party members to a high degree feel betrayed, believing that the party has abandoned its core principles in favour of a participation on political power. They worry that this shift undermines the party's credibility and alienates its base.
While aptly visible here, the Green are not the only traditional part that lost its mission, its purpose its soul.
Technology is no longer neutral but weaponized
Technology, once perceived as a neutral tool for advancement and innovation, has increasingly become weaponized. In the realm of international relations, technological supremacy is not just about economic success but a critical component of national security and power projection.
- Some argue that the militarization of technology is a necessary response to emerging threats and a means to maintain a strategic edge. They suggest that technological superiority can act as a deterrent against aggression.
- Critics warn that this trend leads to an arms race with potentially devastating consequences. They argue that it diverts resources from peaceful uses of technology and could lead to a more dangerous world.
When fragmentation occurs to the core in an increasingly technology-driven world, separate, completely incompatible worlds emerge that become increasingly alien to one another, with the dangerous side effect of denying each other human dignity.
Free Markets are no longer free
The notion of free markets as open, unbiased platforms for trade is increasingly being questioned. As geopolitical tensions rise, markets are becoming arenas for power plays, shaped more by strategic interests than by supply and demand.
- Proponents of more regulated markets argue that in a world of power politics, leaving markets entirely free is naive. They believe that strategic intervention can protect national interests and prevent hostile powers from gaining undue influence.
- On the other hand, free-market purists contend that such interventions distort markets, hinder competition, and ultimately harm consumers and economies. They advocate for minimal government interference to preserve market efficiency and innovation.
The press is no longer the Fourth Estate
The press, once revered as the fourth pillar of democracy, is facing a crisis of confidence. Accusations of bias, sensationalism, and capitulation to corporate and political interests have tarnished its reputation.
- Some argue that the media is simply adapting to a changing world. They suggest that in an era of information overload, the press must find new ways to capture attention and remain financially viable.
- Critics, however, see a more sinister trend. They believe the media has strayed from its watchdog role, becoming a mouthpiece for the powerful and abandoning its duty to inform and empower the public.
Cold War 2.0 is brewing alongside several hot conflicts
The once unipolar world order, a term popularized by Charles Krauthammer to describe post-Cold War America's dominance, has evolved into a classical power competition. The incumbent world hegemon, the United States, now faces a formidable challenge from a rising China. This contest is not merely about military might or economic prowess but extends deeply into the realm of technology. Microchips, the bedrock of modern digital technology, have become a critical flashpoint in this new cold war.
- Some argue that this competition drives technological innovation, leading to faster advancements and better products. The race to dominate the microchip industry pushes companies and countries to invest heavily in research and development.
- However, others point out that this rivalry leads to increased tension and the potential for conflict. The reliance on a few suppliers for critical technology creates vulnerabilities and the risk of supply chain disruptions.
Conclusion: From Science Fiction to Reality
Arthur C. Clarke's assertion that "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic" aptly captures the awe and apprehension surrounding the rapid advancements in technology. As microchips continue to shape our world in ways that once seemed the realm of science fiction, the challenge lies in navigating these developments wisely.
Balancing innovation with ethical considerations, competition with cooperation, and national interests with global well-being is the tightrope walk of our times. The decisions made today will determine whether technology ultimately serves to uplift humanity or leads it into a new era of conflict and division.
Ian Bremmer, President at Eurasia Group
It’s the annus horribilis,
The Voldemort of years,
The year that must not be spoken,
Welcome to 2024
The “progress” 2024 has made after having lived through more than its 1st third is not serving to lift our mood. Referring to Bob Dylan again it rather supports his dire premonition as obscurely expressed in another of his epic songs "A Hard Rain's A-Gonna Fall".
I once disclosed, considering myself an optimist in a doomed world, I cling to a kind of desperate opiumism. It is not just to feel better during the years that are left to me, but in order to nourish the strength to take action, not just to have been a passenger on star ship earth but a valuable crew member, contributing to its direction and be the change myself.
