Kleine Überraschung für den Interim Manager

 

Die Wahrheit erfährst Du oft erst, wenn, wenn Du bereits mittendrin steckst.

Vor meiner Karriere als Interim-Manager habe ich aus praktischer Erfahrung als Unternehmensberater gelernt, dass es drei ehrliche Gründe geben kann, warum ein Unternehmen einen externen Berater hinzuzieht:

1. Um Spezial-Know How zu erwerben oder zumindest zu nutzen, das sie intern nicht haben oder nicht bereithalten wollen,
   
   
2. Um fehlende Kapazitäten zu kompensieren, insbesondere um Veränderungsaktivitäten zu ermöglichen, und
   
   
3. Um einen unvoreingenommenen externen Blick auf die interne Situation zu erhalten, möglicherweise kombiniert mit dem Mehrwert der Positionierung im Markt im Vergleich zu anderen.

Und dann gibt es eine Reihe von nicht so ehrlichen, nicht so anständigen Gründen, um externe Expertise zu nutzen: um heimliche verborgene Aktivitäten in internen Machtkämpfen zu befeuern, um die eigene Untätigkeit in Notfällen zu vertuschen, um einen Konkurrenten aus dem Rennen um die Spitze zu werfen ... Es gibt mehr solcher Fälle, als sich ein kranker Geist vorstellen kann.

Um ehrlich zu sein, hatte ich anfangs keine Ahnung davon, musste aber schnell dazulernen.

Als ich dann das Feld des Interim-Managements betrat, stieß ich auf einen ähnlichen Dualismus von Wahrnehmung und Realität, den ich gerne mit Euch teilen möchte.

1 Unangenehme Entdeckungen 

Das Management eines Programms zur Zentralisierung von 25 regionalen Instanzen eines veralteten Kernbankensystems und dessen Ersatz durch ein neues und modernes System war eine gewaltige, aber prestigeträchtige Aufgabe. Gut, dass das Unternehmen dafür einige zusätzliche, qualifizierte Ressourcen unter Vertrag genommen hatte. Es sollte mithin machbar sein, so dachte ich.

Unter der sichtbaren Oberfläche hatte der Eisberg jedoch eine enorme Basis aus unsichtbaren Herausforderungen, denen begegnet werden musste, um den Erfolg zu gewährleisten.

• Die 25 Instanzen waren in sehr unterschiedlichem Zustand, in verschiedenen Versionen, wurden auf unterschiedliche Weise gemäß sehr unterschiedlichen Prozessen genutzt. Da Kunden in den Regionen unterschiedliche Vorlieben in Bezug auf die genutzten Bankprodukte hatten, war an diesen Stellen oft auch unterschiedliche Funktionalität implementiert worden.
  
  
• Verfügbarkeit und Sicherheit, obwohl nicht gerade berauschend und oft bemängelt, waren aufgrund des verteilten Risikos erträglich – mit der Zentralisierung war aber eine erhebliche Verbesserung erforderlich. Business Continuity Management, Standardarbeitsanweisungen und Cybersicherheit bedurften alle einer deutlichen Professionalisierung.
  
  
• Schließlich erfuhr ich, dass ich nicht der erste war, der diesen Auftrag erhielt. Einige Vorgänger hatten es vor mir versucht – und waren gescheitert. Die Hoffnung auf einen gemeinsamen Erfolg in dem inzwischen erschöpften Team zu nähren, erwies sich als keine leichte Aufgabe. Kurz gesagt, es stellte sich heraus, dass ich eine gute Gelegenheit haben würde, etwas „Spaß“ zu haben.

2 Glänzende Zahlen – verborgene Schulden

Nach einigen Jahren hatte ich eine zweite Chance zu glänzen – oder in die Falle zu tappen ...

Ein Manager einer Fachabteilung mit rund 60 Mitarbeitern bei einem Softwareanbieter für den öffentlichen Personentransport hatte plötzlich das „Handtuch geworfen“ und gekündigt. Sehr bald sollte ein neues, vielversprechendes Produkt der nächsten Generation auf dem ungeduldig wartenden Markt eingeführt werden. Alle finanziellen Zahlen, die der Zentrale gemeldet wurden, sahen gut bis hervorragend aus, vielleicht ein wenig zu gut.

Nur noch ein paar letzte Tests mussten durchgeführt werden, bevor der neue Stolz des Unternehmens in die freie Wildbahn entlassen werden konnte.

Diesmal bestand ich allerdings auf einer 6-wöchigen Analyse vor Übernahme meiner Aufgabe. Außerdem äußerte ich den Wunsch, zwei weitere Kollegen hinzuziehen zu können, die zwar erfahrene „alte Hasen“, aber gleichzeitig mit den neuesten Methoden vertraut waren – eine seltene Kombination. Ein unbestimmtes Bauchgefühl am Anfang sagte mir nämlich, dass ich alleine nicht in der Lage sein würde, die Herausforderungen all der verborgenen Schichten zu bewältigen, sollte es da mehr geben als auf den ersten Blick erkennbar war.

Und wie sich herausstellte, lauerten da tatsächlich einige Monster im Untergrund.

• Die „paar letzten Tests“ waren in Bezug auf Teamgröße und Fähigkeiten dramatisch unterbesetzt. Diese kritische Projektphase war, weil die Zeit am Ende knapp wurde, in einen lächerlich engen Zeitplan gepresst worden,
  
  
• Niemand hatte eine Ahnung, wie viele Fehler zu erwarten waren oder wie man sie schätzen sollte, die Anwendung von Fehlermodellen war unbekannt.
  
  
• Da die Entwicklung traditionell weit hinter dem Zeitplan lag, wurden notwendige Refaktorisierungsschritte verschoben oder ganz übersprungen, was zu einer nun fehlerhaften Architektur führte. Infolgedessen hatte sich im Laufe der Jahre eine riesige Menge technischer Schulden angesammelt.
  
  
• Als ob das nicht genug wäre, hatten Anschuldigungen und gegenseitige Vorwürfe innerhalb des Teams zu gestörter Kommunikation und in einigen Bereichen zu einer toxischen Kultur der Zusammenarbeit geführt.
  
  
• Es ist fast überflüssig zu erwähnen, dass in der Entwicklung, Wartung und Projektmanagement veraltete Methoden verwendet wurden,
  
  
• Unsere Kunden hatten ihre sensiblen Antennen bereits auf uns ausgerichtet. Bei Vor-Ort-Besuchen ließen sie uns an ihrem deutlichen Unbehagen teilhaben.

Die Liste könnte weitergehen, das aber Top-Management gab sich ahnungslos: Fehler passieren nun 'mal, keine Software ist frei davon. Warum können die Kunden denn niemals zufrieden sein?

3 Der Betrieb frisst Deine ganze Zeit

Bei meinem dritten Interim-Einsatz wurde ich beauftragt, Marktforschung, Bewertung, Auswahl, Einkauf und Einführung bis zum Go-Live einer neuen wichtigen Infrastruktursoftware durchzuführen. Ich war jetzt erfahrener, gut ausgerüstet mit meinem Sieben-Schritte-Auswahlverfahren und in guter Stimmung.

Und doch, da mein Vorgänger in dieser Rolle das Unternehmen plötzlich in einer Art Panikmodus verlassen hatte, fand ich dort eine große Verwirrung unter den Himmeln vor. Natürlich musste als kleine Nebenaufgabe, kaum erwähnenswert, das operative Geschäft überwacht werden.

Es stellte sich heraus, dass das operative Tagesgeschäft, durch eine miserable Datenqualität, kombiniert mit nicht vorhandenen Prozessdefinitionen und unterirdischen Fähigkeiten des unterbesetzten Teams, bis zu 80% meiner verfügbaren Zeit beanspruchte. Die hastige Implementierung einiger provisorischer Teilautomatisierungen durch Skripte und Bürosoftware konsumierte weitere 15%, was nur 5% für die Aufgabe ließ, für die ich engagiert worden war.

Mittlerweile hatte ich jedoch gelernt, dass ein Interim-Manager intern ist, das bedeutet, er kann von innen heraus agieren und Entscheidungen über Budget, Ziele und Ressourcenzuweisung im Allgemeinen beeinflussen. Am Ende rettete es mich, diese Karte zu spielen. Es ermöglichte mir, einen Berater zu engagieren, der mich bei den eher generischen und daher auslagerbaren Aufgaben unterstützte.

4 Diese Erfahrungen machten mich nachdenklich. 

Was ist da passiert? Wurde ich absichtlich über die wahre Natur des Jobs im Unklaren gelassen? Wollten meine Kunden mich böswillig in eine Falle locken? Oder glaubten sie selbst wirklich und aufrichtig, was sie mir über die aktuelle Situation erzählten? Sahen sie nur die Spitze des Eisbergs und erkannten die darunter lauernden Bedrohungen nicht? Oder zogen sie es vor, nicht so genau hinzuschauen? Schließlich ist bisher immer alles gut gegangen, wie die Zahlen „bewiesen“.

Wenn es um Interim-Management geht, lautet das vorherrschende Narrativ „eine Vakanz überbrücken“. Es wird allgemein angenommen, dass ein Manager einer wichtigen Unternehmensfunktion aus irgendeinem Grund plötzlich ausfällt. Es kann einige Zeit dauern, bis ein neuer Manager, der richtige, ernannt wird und sich in die Rolle eingearbeitet hat. In der Zwischenzeit muss die Lücke gefüllt werden. Dieser kapazitätsbedingte Bedarf wird von denen als Hauptgrund angesehen, die weniger mit diesen Umständen zu tun haben – und in einigen Fällen entspricht dieses allgemeine Verständnis sogar der Realität.

Das Expertise-Argument gilt wie in der Beratung so auch hier, jedoch in Verbindung mit einer Umsetzung. Und schließlich kommt es manchmal sogar vor, dass de Wunsch, die Aktivitäten diesmal anders zu gestalten, z.B. durch die Einführung von Lean- oder Agile-Managementpraktiken, keine andere Wahl lässt, als die richtige Person für diese schwierige Aufgabe von außen zu engagieren, um eine turbulente Zeit zu bewältigen – bis sich der Staub gelegt haben würde.

Meistens jedoch wird schnell klar, dass es da noch mehr zu tun gibt.

Die ignorierten Schulden, die verborgenen Schichten, die ebenfalls bearbeitet werden müssen, existieren tatsächlich. Dass niemand davon wüsste, ist eher seltener der Fall. In den meisten Fällen haben die Kollegen eine recht gute Vorstellung von dem aufgestauten Handlungsbedarf sowie den Fähigkeiten und Möglichkeiten ihrer eigenen Organisation. Sie unterschätzen möglicherweise nur die Größe der Altlasten und ihre möglichen Auswirkungen.

Aber der Prophet gilt bekanntlich nichts in seiner eigenen Organisation. Jeder Überbringer schlechter Nachrichten wird beschuldigt, insgeheim eigennützige Motive zu verfolgen. Sie stehen für unangenehme Wahrheiten, die normalerweise zu deutlich mehr Aufwand, höheren Kosten und Terminverzügen führen würden. Das Management würde am liebsten gar keine Nachrichten hören, es sei denn, es sind gute Nachrichten. So schleicht sich eine Art „Hofberichterstattung“ ein: Die Zahlen, die nach oben gemeldet werden, sehen gut aus. Aber darunter schwelen die Probleme weiter – bis sie irgendwann nicht mehr verborgen werden können.

Die Schlussfolgerung lautet: Niemand will Dich in eine Falle locken oder lügt Dich absichtlich an. Vielmehr führen häufig Selbsttäuschung, bequeme Illusionen und gestörte Kommunikation oder erfolgreich geübte Ignoranz letztlich zu unangenehmen Entdeckungen.

Also sei besser auf eine Überraschung vorbereitet, wenn Du einmal etwas tiefer bohrst.

The Interim Managers’ surprise

Often you aren’t told the truth until you are in 

Prior to my career as an interim manager, while working as a management consultant, I learned by practical experience that there can be three honest reasons for a company to bring in an external consultant: 

• To acquire or at least utilise specialist knowledge that they do not have or do not want to maintain internally,
  
  
• to supplement insufficient capacity, in particular to enable change activities and
  
  
• to obtain an unbiased external view of the internal situation, possibly combined with the added value of positioning in the market compared to others

And then there are a number of not-so-honest, not-so-decent reasons to use external expertise to fuel clandestine underground activities in internal turf wars, to cover up one's own inaction in emergencies, to throw a competitor out of the race for the top ... There are more such cases that even a sick mind can imagine.

To be honest, I had no idea at first, but I had to learn quickly.

Then, when I entered the arena of interim management, I came across a similar dualism of perception and reality that I would like to share with you.

1 Unpleasant discoveries

Managing the programme to centralise 25 regional instances of an outdated core banking system and replace it with a new and modern system was a daunting but prestigious task. Good thing they hired some additional, qualified resources. It should be doable, I thought. 

Beneath the visible surface, however, the iceberg had an enormous base of invisible challenges that were waiting to be solved as a prerequisite for success.

• The 25 instances were in a widely different shape, of various versions, were used in a variety of different ways according to very distinct processes. As customers in den regions had diverse preference regarding the consumed banking products, different functionality was prevalent there too.
  
  
• Availability and security, while not great and often bemoaned, were tolerable due to distributed risk - but a significant boost was required with centralisation. Business continuity management, standard operating procedures, cyber security all required a substantial improvement.
  
  
• My assignment, I learnt, was not the first. A few predecessors had tried before me - and failed. Nurturing the hope of joint success in the now exhausted team turned out to be no easy task.

In short, it turned out that there would be a decent chance to have some fun.

2 Brilliant numbers – hidden debts

After a few years had passed, I had a second chance to shine - or fall into the trap ...

A manager of a professional services department with around 60 employees at a software provider for public transport suddenly threw in the towel and resigned. Very soon, a new, promising next-generation product was due to be launched on an impatiently waiting market. All the financial figures reported to the head office looked good to excellent, perhaps a little too good.

Only a few final tests needed to be carried out before the company's new pride and joy could be released into the wild.

This time I insisted on a 6 weeks analysis. Also, I demanded to add two more colleges, who were experienced seniors but have kept up with newest methodologies at the same time – a rare combination. A gut feeling at the beginning told me that, if there is more to it than meets the eye, I alone will not be able to cope with the challenges of all those hidden layers.

And, as it turned out, there indeed was more to it.

• Those “few final tests” were dramatically understaffed regarding team size and skills. This critical phase was squeezed into a ridiculously tight schedule,
  
  
• No one had any ideas about how many flaws were to expect nor how to estimate them, the application of error models was unknown,
  
  
• As development was usually behind schedule, necessary refactoring steps were postponed or skipped altogether, resulting in a now flawed architecture. As a result, a huge amount of technical debt had accumulated over the years.
  
  
• As if this were not enough, recriminations and mutual accusations within the team had led to distorted communication and, in some areas, a toxic culture of cooperation, 
  
  
• Almost superfluous to mention that outdated methods were used in development, maintenance and project management,
  
  
• Customers had also adjusted their sensitive antennae. They now felt increasingly uncomfortable, as on-site visits revealed.

The list could go on, but the top management had no idea: mistakes happen, no software is free of ‘bugs’. Why can customers never be satisfied?

3 Operations eats up your time

In my 3rd interim assignment, I was tasked with market research, evaluation, selection, purchasing and introduction until go-live of a major new infrastructure software. I was more experienced now, was well-equipped with my seven-steps procedure at hand and in a good mood.

And yet, as my predecessor in that role had left the company all in a sudden in a kind of panic mode, I found there a great confusion under the heavens. Of course, as a minor side-task, hardly worth mentioning, operational business had to be supervised meanwhile.

I turned out that a lousy data quality combined with non-existent process definitions and subterranean skills of the understaffed team the BAU (Business as usual) or business operations took up to 80% of my available time. Hasty implementation of some makeshift semi-automation through scripting and office software accounted for another 15%, leaving a mere 5% for the obligation I was contracted for.

Meanwhile however I had learned that an interim manager is internal, means he may act from inside, influencing decisions about budget, goals and resource allocation in general. In the end playing this card saved me by allowing me to contract a consultant to support me in the more generic and hence outsourceable tasks.

4 Those experiences left me wondering.

What had happened there? Was I deliberately lied to about the true nature of the job? Did my clients intend to lure you into a trap? Or did they themselves truly and sincerely believe what they were telling me about the current situation? Did they only see the tip of the iceberg and didn't even recognise the threats lurking beneath the surface? Or did they prefer not to look so closely? After all, everything has always gone well so far, as the figures ‘prove’.

When it comes to interim management, the prevailing narrative is ‘bridging a vacancy’. It is generally assumed that a manager of an important company function suddenly drops out for some reason. It may take some time for a new manager, the right one, to be appointed and for him/her to quickly familiarise with the new role. Meanwhile the gap needs to be filled. This capacity-related need is seen as the main reason by those who have less to do with these circumstances - and in some rare cases this general understanding even corresponds to reality.

The expertise argument like in the consulting business also applies here, but in conjunction with the expectation of execution. And finally, sometimes it even happens that the willingness to do the work differently this time, e.g. changing management practices to Lean or Agile, leaves no choice but to hire the right person for this difficult task to lead through a turbulent time - until the dust settles.  

More often than not, however, it quickly becomes apparent that there is more to it. 

The ignored debts, the hidden layers, which also need to be worked on, do indeed exist. Rarely is it the case that nobody has seen them. In most cases, colleagues have a good idea of the capabilities and possibilities of their own organisation. They may just underestimate the size and impact.

But the prophets are not well received in their own organisation. Every bearer of bad news is accused of being secretly self-serving. They deliver uncomfortable truths anyway, which would usually lead to significantly more effort, higher costs and later deadlines. Management would prefer not to hear any news at all, unless it is good news. So, a kind of ‘court reporting’ creeps in: The figures that are reported upwards look good. But underneath, the problems continue to smoulder - until at some point they can no longer be hidden.

The conclusion is: Nobody wants to lure you into a trap or is deliberately lying to you. Rather, self-deception, cosy illusions and distorted or even muted communication or traditional ignorance often lead to an unpleasant surprise. 

So you better be prepared for a surprise once you dig a little deeper.

7 questions about the job of an interim manager

 

A couple of years ago, my son came back from school with the homework assignment to describe his father's job in a short interview of about 7 questions. My challenge was to keep it short, emphasise the essentials and make it understandable for my son's classmates. My son got a good grade for it. And even today, after all these years, I think this concise but timeless document has retained its power. What do you think?

1 What is your profession?

My profession is that of an interim manager, that is a manager for a limited period of time, hence ‘interim’. An interim manager actually does what a ‘normal’, i.e. salaried, manager does. Frequently however he finds himself in a special situation. The interim manager usually is called in when a salaried manager suddenly is no longer available. Or it may be that there are tasks to be completed for which it is better to employ someone ‘from outside’.

2 Why did you choose this career

The tasks that an interim manager has to perform rarely resembles the usual operational routine. Due to the special situation in which he is deployed, his tasks are nearly always new and exciting. Creating something new in a constantly changing company has a special appeal for me. It never gets boring. And that's why I chose this job.  By the way, it's not badly paid either.

3 What training did you have to complete and how long did it take?

There is no proper training programme for interim managers. This job profile is relatively new. The requirements profile to be fulfilled is not (yet) formally defined. Nevertheless, an interim manager must have a range of skills. It is good if they were once managers in a senior position themselves. But the skills, knowledge and experience of a management consultant are also very helpful here. From the list above, it has certainly become clear that an interim manager should have gained several years of experience in a responsible position after completing his studies. This can easily add up to 5 to 10 years of professional experience before you take on such a role.

4 What activities do you carry out in your job?

On the one hand, I continue the operational business that I took over from my predecessor.  However, as this is generally not enough, I set up one or more change projects. These should revitalise the company or make it fit for certain important projects in the first place.  To do this, I need to have a good understanding of the business, i.e. the markets, customers, suppliers and service processes. As this is about change management, I also need to take the people involved ‘on the journey’.  After all, the plans will only succeed if everyone is on board.

5 What advantages and disadvantages do you experience in your job?

The advantages of this profession also entail its disadvantages. And what I see as an advantage, others may see as a disadvantage. I see the advantages: Always new tasks in new companies, but also in new locations and with new people. The tension that arises when it's not entirely clear at the beginning whether the big change will succeed. And in the end, the satisfaction of having succeeded, perhaps having saved an entire company.

That actually already lists the disadvantages: The uncertainty of the new situation, long and very stressful working days, travelling times, the pressure of expectations that weighs on me, sometimes even outright rejection. And there's not always anything that can be salvaged. Those are rather sad cases then.

6 Do you have to do regular training or is that not necessary in your job? 

Yes, of course I do. Maybe that's nothing special nowadays. Don't we have to keep on learning in every profession? However, an interim manager is often called in when a company has ’missed the train’ to an essential development. He himself must therefore always be up to date, both professionally and in terms of working and management methodology. There is no set training programme for this. A lot of personal initiative is hence required.

4.7 Do you know of any professions that are similar to yours? 

The job of a manager in a volatile environment, i.e. in markets that change quickly, probably faces similar challenges. Project managers of major projects or explicit change management projects, so-called change managers, can also grow into such a role.  And finally, management consultants who are not afraid to implement their own recommendations within the company may have a similar job profile.

7 Fragen zum Beruf eines Interim Managers

Vor einigen Jahren kam mein Sohn mit der Hausaufgabe aus der Schule zurück, den Beruf seines Vaters in Form eines kurzen Interviews von etwa 7 Fragen zu beschreiben. Meine Herausforderung bestand darin, mich kurz zu fassen, das Wesentliche hervorzuheben und für die Mitschüler meines Sohns verständlich zu formulieren. Mein Sohn bekam dafür eine gute Note. Und noch heute, so meine ich, nach all den Jahren hat dieses knappe aber zeitlose Dokument seine Aussagekraft behalten. Was meint Ihr?

1 Was ist Dein Beruf?

Mein Beruf ist der eines Interim Managers, also eines Mangers auf Zeit, daher „Interim“. Ein Interim Manager macht eigentlich das, was ein „normaler“, also angestellter, Manager auch macht. Eigentlich – denn häufig befindet es sich doch in einer Sondersituation. Die entsteht dadurch, dass ein angestellter Manager plötzlich nicht mehr zur Verfügung steht. Oder es kann sein, dass Aufgaben zu erledigen sind, für die man lieber jemand „von draußen“ nimmt.

2 Warum hast Du diesen Beruf gewählt

Die Aufgaben, die ein Interim Manager zu erledigen hat, entstammen selten der üblichen operativen Routine. Aufgrund der Sondersituation, in der er eingesetzt wird, sind auch seine Aufgaben immer wieder neu und spannend. In immer wieder neuen Unternehmen, Neues zu schaffen, das hat für mich seinen besonderen Reiz. Das wird nie langweilig. Und deshalb habe ich diesen Beruf gewählt.  Übrigens, schlecht bezahlt wird er auch nicht.

3 Welche Ausbildung musstest Du absolvieren, wie lange dauerte die Ausbildung?

Eine regelrechte Ausbildung zum Interim Manager gibt es nicht. Dieses Berufsbild ist vergleichsweise neu. Das zu erfüllende Anforderungsprofil ist (noch) nicht formal definiert. Dennoch muss ein Interim Manager eine Reihe von Fähigkeiten mitbringen.  Gut ist es, wenn er selber einmal ein Manager in einer leitenden Position war. Aber auch die Fähigkeiten, Kenntnisse und Erfahrungen eines Unternehmensberaters sind hier sehr hilfreich. Aus der Aufzählung ist sicher klar geworden, dass ein Interim Manager nach seinem Studium einige Jahre Erfahrung in verantwortlicher Position gesammelt haben sollte. Da kommen dann leicht 5 bis 10 Jahre Berufserfahrung zusammen, bevor man eine solche Aufgabe übernimmt.

4 Welche Tätigkeiten übst Du in Deinem Beruf aus?

Zum einen führe ich das operative Geschäft weiter, das ich von meinem Vorgänger übernommen habe.  Da es damit aber in aller Regel nicht getan ist, setze ich eines oder mehrere Veränderungsprojekte auf. Diese sollten dazu führen, das Unternehmen wieder zu revitalisieren oder überhaupt erst fit zu machen für bestimmte wichtige Vorhaben.  Dazu muss ich ein gutes Verständnis vom Geschäft haben, also von den Märkten, den Kunden, Lieferanten und den Leistungsprozessen. Da es um Change-Management geht, muss ich aber auch die beteiligten Menschen mit „auf die Reise“ nehmen.  Denn nur, wenn auch alle mitmachen, werden die Vorhaben gelingen.

5 Welche Vor- und Nachteile erlebst Du in Deinem Beruf?

Die Vorteile dieses Berufes bedingen auch gleichzeitig seine Nachteile. Und das, was ich als Vorteil sehe, mögen Andere vielleicht eher als Nachteil empfinden. Ich sehe als Vorteile: Immer wieder neue Aufgaben in neuen Unternehmen, aber auch an neuen Standorten und mit neuen Menschen. Die Spannung, die entsteht, wenn zu Beginn noch nicht ganz klar ist, ob die große Veränderung auch gelingen wird. Und hinterher die Befriedigung, es geschafft zu haben, vielleicht ein ganzes Unternehmen gerettet zu haben.

Damit sind eigentlich auch schon die Nachteile aufgezählt: Die Ungewissheit der neuen Situation, lange und sehr anstrengende Arbeitstage, Reisezeiten, der Erwartungsdruck, der auf mir lastet, manchmal auch offene Ablehnung. Und nicht immer ist noch etwas zu retten. Das ist dann eher traurig.

6 Musst Du Dich regelmäßig fortbilden oder ist das in Deinem Beruf nicht notwendig? 

Doch, das muss ich natürlich. Vielleicht ist das heute nichts Besonderes mehr. Müssen wir uns nicht in jedem Beruf fortwährend weiterbilden? Ein Interim Manager aber wird häufig gerufen, wenn ein Unternehmen eine Entwicklung „verschlafen“ hat. Er selber muss also sowohl fachlich, wie von den Arbeits- und Managementmethoden her immer auf der Höhe der Zeit sein. Dafür gibt es keinen festgelegten Ausbildungsgang. Da ist viel Eigeninitiative gefragt.

7 Kennst Du Berufe die Deinem ähnlich sind? 

Der Beruf eines Managers in einem volatilen Umfeld, also in Märkten, die sich schnell ändern, hat sich vermutlich ähnlichen Herausforderungen zu stellen. Projektleiter von Großprojekten oder expliziten Change-Management Projekten, sogenannte Change Manager, können auch in eine solche Rolle hineinwachsen.  Und schließlich können Unternehmensberater, die sich nicht scheuen, Ihre eigenen Empfehlungen im Unternehmen auch umzusetzen, ein durchaus ähnliches Berufsbild aufweisen.

The third evolution

Collective Artificial Intelligence (CAI)

Well, CAI is not (yet) an established Acronym, or at least not in the sense as an abbreviation of this contributions’ sub-title.

Underlying the claim that comes along with that title is a lengthy thought which crossed my mind while listening to a panel discussion on “Intelligence in the Age of LLMs: Synthesizing with AI Toward Meta-Knowing” on Wednesday, June 05 at this years’ European Identity Conference (EIC 2024). 

The illustrious panel was comprised of ...

• Dr. Scott David, LL.M., Executive Director - Information Risk and Synthetic Intelligence Research Initiative, University of Washington - APL,
  
  
• Daniel Friedman, Co-Founder and President Active Inference Institute,
  
  
• Trent McConaghy, Founder Ocean Protocol and 
  
  
• Dr. Mihaela Ulieru, Founder and President IMPACT Institute for the Digital Economy

Their talk promised to open a treasure chest of insights into the evolution of intelligence. After a while, my thoughts took on a life of their own and following a storyline that went like this:

1 Collective Human Intelligence - The second evolution

The success of the human race stems not only from the various contributions of intelligent individuals, but to a possibly greater extent to the intelligent interaction of these individuals with each other. Humans are highly social creatures, and much of our progress and survival has depended on our ability to co-operate, communicate, and share knowledge. Collective interaction has given rise to skills that far surpass those of a single individual. 

These artefacts, which complexity theory refers to as emergent effects, ultimately triggered a second, cultural evolution based on these emergent properties of human social interaction. As a result, humanity ultimately became human. This position is supported by a wealth of literature from fields such as evolutionary biology, anthropology, cognitive science and complexity theory.

Complexity theory in particular studies how interactions among components of a system lead to complex behaviours and properties that are not evident from the properties of the individual components. 

Emergent effects in this context are defined as phenomena that arise from these interactions. They include:

1. Nonlinearity - Small changes in initial conditions or interactions can lead to disproportionately large effects.
   
   
2. Self-Organization - Systems can spontaneously organize into patterns or structures without external direction.
   
   
3. Adaptation - Systems can adapt to changes in their environment through feedback mechanisms.
   
   
4. Decentralization - Emergent behaviours typically arise from local interactions among components rather than being directed by a central authority.

In the context of human societies, emergent effects manifest as cultural norms, institutions, languages, and technologies that evolve from the collective behaviours and interactions of individuals.

2 Collective Artificial Intelligence - The third evolution

Most artificial intelligence systems, on the other hand, are currently designed and implemented as individual, isolated models, unaware of the existence of others of their kind. They do not inherently communicate with each other nor do they exchange knowledge.

Rather, the trend is to develop larger, more comprehensive models based on huge amounts of data and aiming for superhuman performance in certain tasks in order to eventually achieve a "god-like" status. The concept of a god (not a pantheon) is ultimately that of a superior individual in no need of  "a little help from his friend". Since there are clearly no equal peers, it is unlikely that this evolutionary path favours more intense communication.

However, if we want to apply the concept of collective behaviour to instances of artificial intelligence, at whatever stage of development, do we expect to observe emergent effects there as well, possibly leading to capabilities and behaviours that surpass those of individual AI systems? 

As cultural evolution builds on biological evolution, could a new form of evolution emerge from the interaction of AI systems? This "third evolution" could then be characterised by the development of a collective artificial intelligence that makes use of emergent properties from the interaction of AI systems with AI systems. 

Will we eventually see the development of a superintelligent AI in the form of a network or collective of interconnected systems, rather than a single, isolated superintelligent AI?  This collective intelligence could potentially have capabilities that surpass any single AI system. 

How would this AI collective interact with the incumbent collective, us humans? The interaction between an AI collective and human society could lead to a symbiotic relationship involving co-operation, competition or even co-evolution, where both benefit from each other's strengths. However, it also raises ethical and practical concerns about control, transparency and the alignment of AI goals with human values.

3 Speculation

There is much room for speculation indeed. 

If the course of thought up to this point has already been guided by quite esoteric considerations, then the path that may lie ahead of us is even more shrouded in thick fog.

Would such a scenario even be possible after all? Well, emergent effects can occur even from the interaction of individuals on a rather low level. Instances of individual intelligence on the other hand have currently reached a by far higher degree of autonomy in their decisions. Even higher levels are expected to be achieved. While these levels don’t represent a necessary precondition for the occurrence of emergent effects, to kick off an evolution of its own kind however, they must at least be capable of processing feedback from those effects in order to incentivise successful group behaviour and discourage less promising set-ups.

Most probably this scenario can be expected to effectively work even below the level of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) of the participating individuals. The speed of this 3rd evolution will certainly accelerate tremendously once the AGI level is reached or even surpassed by the majority of the members of the collective. 

While there is obviously a certain probability that such a scenario might come to life one day, will it be desirable after all? Will humanity benefit from it or should we rather be scared by such possible outcome? In a survey earlier this year, just over half of the 2,778 researchers polled said that there's a five percent chance that humans will be driven to extinction, among other "extremely bad outcomes." At the same time, 68.3 percent of respondents said that "good outcomes from superhuman AI" are more likely than bad ones, showing there's little consensus on the topic among experts. 

Most probably collective AI was not in scope of those experts’ considerations. Nevertheless, to cope with the remaining risks experts and regulators frequently demand the human to stay somewhere in the loop having the last say. Given the history of mankind, however, it remains doubtful, to say the least, that we would be better off in such a case. Looking back, we cannot help but realize that the worst atrocities have been committed to us by our fellow human being. Over the course of human history, the weapons we have at hand to inflict harm to each other have evolved towards impressing levels – our moral standards and the ways we treat each other however have not.

3.1 How did human morality evolve?

While we may be the known evil for ourselves, the behaviour of autonomously acting AI instances, whether as a swarm or not, is completely unknown and still pure fiction. To approach a prediction, we could again take ourselves as a blueprint. For most of human history, the majority of us have been desperately preoccupied with the needs at the base of Maslow's pyramid. The struggle for survival dominated our days. To ensure survival, we had to band together in smaller or larger communities that competed fiercely for the scarce resources of food and shelter. But even within the communities, we competed with our fellow human beings for the same resources. We had to act as members of a community and at the same time as autonomous individuals. This dualism never left us. This is how we have been socialised over the millennia.

On closer inspection, we find ample evidence and scientific theories to suggest that human morality has indeed evolved as a survival mechanism driven by the need to navigate a hostile environment while balancing individual autonomy and collective co-operation. Here are some key points and theories that echo these ideas:

3.2 Key Theories and Evidence

Evolutionary Psychology and Morality:

• Theory: Evolutionary psychology posits that many human behaviours, including moral behaviours, have evolved to solve recurrent problems faced by our ancestors. These behaviours increase the chances of survival and reproduction.
  
  
• Evidence: Studies show that moral emotions like empathy, guilt, and shame are universal across cultures, suggesting a common evolutionary origin. Research by Frans de Waal on primates indicates that behaviours such as empathy, fairness, and reciprocity are not uniquely human but shared with other social animals.

Social Contract Theory:

• Theory: The social contract theory, proposed by philosophers like Thomas Hobbes, John Locke, and Jean-Jacques Rousseau, suggests that individuals agree to form societies and accept certain moral rules to ensure mutual protection and benefits.
  
  
• Evidence: Archaeological and anthropological studies show early human societies had norms and rules that promoted cooperation and social order, which were essential for survival in harsh environments.

Kin Selection and Inclusive Fitness:

• Theory: Proposed by William Hamilton, kin selection theory suggests that behaviours that help genetic relatives are favoured by natural selection because they increase the likelihood of shared genes being passed on.
  
  
• Evidence: Altruistic behaviours are often observed among close relatives, supporting the idea that helping family members enhances the survival of shared genes. Studies on hunter-gatherer societies show that people are more likely to share resources and cooperate with kin.

Reciprocal Altruism:

• Theory: Introduced by Robert Trivers, reciprocal altruism suggests that individuals help others with the expectation that the favour will be returned in the future, promoting long-term cooperation.
  
  
• Evidence: Experiments and observations show that humans are more likely to help those who have helped them in the past, indicating that reciprocity is a fundamental aspect of human social behaviour.

Group Selection:

• Theory: Group selection theory, proposed by David Sloan Wilson and E.O. Wilson, argues that natural selection operates not only at the individual level but also at the group level. Groups with cooperative and altruistic members are more likely to survive and reproduce.
  
  
• Evidence: Anthropological evidence shows that human groups with strong social cohesion and cooperative norms were more successful in surviving environmental challenges and conflicts with other groups.

Cultural Evolution and Social Learning:

• Theory: Cultural evolution theory suggests that moral values and norms are transmitted through social learning and cultural practices, evolving over time to enhance group cohesion and cooperation.
  
  
• Evidence: Research shows that cultural norms and moral values can change rapidly in response to environmental and social pressures, indicating that morality is influenced by both genetic and cultural factors. The work of Joseph Henrich and others on cultural evolution highlights how cultural practices can shape moral behaviours.

3.3 Socialization and Moral Development

Social Learning Theory:

• Theory: Proposed by Albert Bandura, social learning theory posits that individuals learn moral behaviours by observing and imitating others, especially role models and authority figures.
  
  
• Evidence: Studies show that children develop moral values through interactions with parents, peers, and society, learning what behaviours are acceptable and rewarded.

Moral Development Stages:

• Theory: Lawrence Kohlberg's stages of moral development describe how individuals progress through different levels of moral reasoning, from obedience to authority to principled reasoning based on universal ethical principles.
  
  
• Evidence: Longitudinal studies support the idea that moral reasoning develops through stages influenced by cognitive development and social experiences.

3.4 Takeaways

Human morality appears to be the result of a complex interplay between evolutionary pressures, socialization, and cultural influences. The need to survive in a hostile environment, both as individuals and as members of a collective, has shaped our moral values and behaviours. Theories such as evolutionary psychology, social contract theory, kin selection, reciprocal altruism, group selection, and cultural evolution provide robust frameworks for understanding the development and function of human morality. Socialization processes further refine these moral values, making them adaptable to the specific cultural and social contexts in which individuals live.

For those inclined to explore these ideas a little further, the work of evolutionary biologists such as Richard Dawkins, anthropologists such as Christopher Boehm and psychologists such as Jonathan Haidt offer extensive insights into the evolution of human morality.

These considerations imply that if AI instances are socialised in a similar way to humans, the result could resemble human behaviour. However, these various theories, each attempting to explain certain observations, are still a long way from making predictions. Before we release swarms of autonomously acting AI individuals (and if they are AGI instances, they could have consciousness and should be recognised as persons), we should definitely run some more rigorous simulations of possible scenarios and carefully examine the moral standards that emerge. Only then can we decide whether a collective artificial intelligence (CAI) could become our terminator or our saviour. 

This should be incentive enough to invest a little time and effort to find answers to these existential questions before the third evolution finally takes off.

4 Evidence in Literature

4.1 Collective Intelligence:

• Robin Dunbar: Dunbar's work on the social brain hypothesis suggests that the evolution of human intelligence is largely due to the demands of living in complex social groups. His research indicates that larger social groups require more sophisticated social cognition and communication skills.
  
  
• Pinker: In "The Better Angels of Our Nature," Pinker discusses how human cooperation and collective efforts have led to the reduction of violence and the advancement of societies.

4.2 Emergent Effects and Complexity Theory:

• Murray Gell-Mann: In "The Quark and the Jaguar," Gell-Mann discusses complexity and emergent phenomena in nature, including how simple rules can lead to complex behaviours.
  
  
• Melanie Mitchell: Her book "Complexity: A Guided Tour" explores how complex behaviours and properties emerge from simple interactions in systems ranging from biological organisms to human societies.

4.3 Cultural Evolution:

• Richard Dawkins: Dawkins introduced the concept of memes in "The Selfish Gene," which describes how cultural information spreads and evolves similarly to genes.
  
  
• Peter J. Richerson and Robert Boyd: Their book "Not By Genes Alone" discusses how culture has played a critical role in human evolution, supporting the idea that cultural evolution is a form of emergent property arising from human social interaction.

5 Prominent Research

5.1 Complex Systems and Emergence:

1. Elinor Ostrom: Ostrom's research on collective action and the management of common resources demonstrates how groups of individuals can self-organize to create systems that outperform individual efforts.
   
   
2. Francis Heylighen: Heylighen has written extensively on the principles of self-organization and the evolution of complex systems, including the role of collective intelligence in societal development.
   
   
3. Herbert A. Simon: Simon's work on bounded rationality and his studies on the architecture of complexity are foundational in understanding emergent phenomena in human behaviour and organizational systems.
   
   
4. John H. Holland's work on complex adaptive systems offers insights into how systems composed of multiple interacting agents can exhibit emergent behaviour.
   
   
5. Murray Gell-Mann and Melanie Mitchell have written extensively on complexity and emergent phenomena, which can provide a theoretical foundation for understanding emergent effects in AI collectives.

5.2 Collective Intelligence in AI:

1. Pierre Lévy introduced the concept of collective intelligence, which could be applied to AI. His book "Collective Intelligence: Mankind's Emerging World in Cyberspace" explores how collective intelligence emerges from networked interactions.
   
   
2. Howard Bloom's "Global Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century" discusses the idea of a global brain, which can be extended to consider AI systems as part of this global intelligence network.

5.3 Swarm Intelligence:

1. Eric Bonabeau and colleagues' work on swarm intelligence, such as in "Swarm Intelligence: From Natural to Artificial Systems," explores how decentralized, self-organizing systems can solve complex problems collectively.
   
   The principles of swarm intelligence could be applied to develop AI systems that work together to achieve goals beyond the capability of individual AIs.

5.4 Multi-Agent Systems:

1. Research on multi-agent systems (MAS) investigates how multiple AI agents can interact, cooperate, and compete. This field provides a practical framework for building and studying AI collectives.
   
   Michael Wooldridge's "An Introduction to MultiAgent Systems" is a comprehensive resource on this topic.

5.5 AI and Human Societies:

1. Nick Bostrom's "Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies" considers various scenarios for the development of superintelligent AI, including collective AI systems.
   
   
2. Yoshua Bengio and other AI researchers have discussed the potential for AI to enhance human collective intelligence rather than replace it.

The Times They Are a-Changin

Contrary to hopes and predictions, we are observing how history is rising again from its supposed grave and how utopias are turning into dystopias.

I spontaneously wrote the following lines when our fateful year 2024 was still in its infancy, yet no langer innocent. Those days I for any reason hesitated releasing it to the public. Maybe I feared to have been misguided by Ian Bremmer’s dark vision of things to come. Three more months down the line I found out that “there is an infinite amount of hope in the universe ... but not for us.” (Franz Kafka).

The turn of the year is often an opportunity for me to think a little further back and forward - what has the past year given us, what do we expect from the new year - what changes have the past decades brought about, what promises and threats do the coming decades hold?

And then I read Ian Bremmer’s, President at Eurasia Group. Extremely dire outlook

It’s the annus horribilis,

The Voldemort of years,

The year that must not be spoken,

Welcome to 2024

He a few days later he elaborated a bit more on it (Why 2024 is the Voldemort of years), painting  a picture of year ahead of us such bleak, as if the adverse currents, which had been nourished by forgetfulness, complacency or outright ignorance for several years, if not decades, were now to culminate.

Having been roaming the earth for nearly three quarters of a century, I remember that going back a 60 years Bob Dylan shared a different worldview with us …

Come senators, congressmen, please heed the call

Don't stand in the doorway, don't block up the hall

For he that gets hurt will be he who has stalled

The battle outside ragin'

Will soon shake your windows and rattle your walls

For the times, they are a-changin'

When released in 1964 on the album of the same name, "The Times They Are A-Changin'" captured the spirit of social and political upheaval that defined the 1960s. Becoming one of Bob Dylan's most famous songs, it was serving as an anthem for change and a rallying cry for the civil rights and anti-war movements of the era. 

The early 1960s were a time of significant change in the United States and around the world. The civil rights movement, the rise of the counterculture, and increasing opposition to the Vietnam War were all brewing. Dylan felt the winds of change and was inspired to write about them. 

With the blessing of hindsight, it safe to state, we indeed were and still are experiencing the change – albeit different for those original expectations.

The world is no longer “flat”

In April 5, 2005 Pulitzer Prize-winning writer and New York times columnist, Thomas L. Friedman had published his latest book book “The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century “. By analysing the impact of globalization, primarily in the early 21st century he suggested the world has a more level playing field for commerce in which most competitors, except for labour, have an equal opportunity. 

In this meanwhile seemingly long-gone era Friedman, who was at times called “the voice of liberal America” suggested that countries, companies, and individuals need to remain competitive in a global market. Historical and geographic divisions were less important. The “end of history” with only liberal democracies seemed near. At that point in time the first fissures of that flat world should have been visible already. The geo-political plate tectonics driving the spheres of the major two contenders apart, had started well before that date. 

With a suffocating sanctions regime, decoupling of economies and the weaponization of nearly all non-military power a geo-political rift valley grew since Americas traumatic Nine-eleven-event with the prospect of eventually widening into a new ocean, separating two very distinct and different worlds. 

Switzerland is no longer ‘Switzerland’

Switzerland's traditional stance of neutrality has been a cornerstone of its identity. However, the Ukraine-Russia war has tested these waters, with Switzerland facing pressure to align more closely with Western sanctions and policies.

• Advocates for this shift argue that in the face of clear aggression, neutrality becomes an untenable position. They suggest that Switzerland must evolve with the times and take a stand against blatant violations of international law.
  
  
• Critics, however, maintain that abandoning neutrality undermines Switzerland's unique position and credibility in international diplomacy. They warn that this could drag the nation into conflicts that it has historically avoided.

In any case the result is an increased polarisation.

The Green Party is no longer green

The German Greens, once staunch advocates for pacifism and environmentalism, have faced criticism for their perceived shift in stance upon joining the government. The party's support for military aid in the Ukraine conflict marks a significant departure from its original mission.

• Their leaders argue that the Greens are adapting to the complexities of governing and the realities of a world where security threats cannot be ignored. They claim that the party is demonstrating a mature approach to balancing idealism with the practical need to protect democratic values.
  
  
• On the other hand, party members to a high degree feel betrayed, believing that the party has abandoned its core principles in favour of a participation on political power. They worry that this shift undermines the party's credibility and alienates its base.

While aptly visible here, the Green are not the only traditional part that lost its mission, its purpose its soul.

Technology is no longer neutral but weaponized

Technology, once perceived as a neutral tool for advancement and innovation, has increasingly become weaponized. In the realm of international relations, technological supremacy is not just about economic success but a critical component of national security and power projection.

• Some argue that the militarization of technology is a necessary response to emerging threats and a means to maintain a strategic edge. They suggest that technological superiority can act as a deterrent against aggression.
  
  
• Critics warn that this trend leads to an arms race with potentially devastating consequences. They argue that it diverts resources from peaceful uses of technology and could lead to a more dangerous world.

When fragmentation occurs to the core in an increasingly technology-driven world, separate, completely incompatible worlds emerge that become increasingly alien to one another, with the dangerous side effect of denying each other human dignity.

Free Markets are no longer free

The notion of free markets as open, unbiased platforms for trade is increasingly being questioned. As geopolitical tensions rise, markets are becoming arenas for power plays, shaped more by strategic interests than by supply and demand.

• Proponents of more regulated markets argue that in a world of power politics, leaving markets entirely free is naive. They believe that strategic intervention can protect national interests and prevent hostile powers from gaining undue influence.
  
  
• On the other hand, free-market purists contend that such interventions distort markets, hinder competition, and ultimately harm consumers and economies. They advocate for minimal government interference to preserve market efficiency and innovation.

The press is no longer the Fourth Estate

The press, once revered as the fourth pillar of democracy, is facing a crisis of confidence. Accusations of bias, sensationalism, and capitulation to corporate and political interests have tarnished its reputation.

• Some argue that the media is simply adapting to a changing world. They suggest that in an era of information overload, the press must find new ways to capture attention and remain financially viable.
  
  
• Critics, however, see a more sinister trend. They believe the media has strayed from its watchdog role, becoming a mouthpiece for the powerful and abandoning its duty to inform and empower the public.

Cold War 2.0 is brewing alongside several hot conflicts 

The once unipolar world order, a term popularized by Charles Krauthammer to describe post-Cold War America's dominance, has evolved into a classical power competition. The incumbent world hegemon, the United States, now faces a formidable challenge from a rising China. This contest is not merely about military might or economic prowess but extends deeply into the realm of technology. Microchips, the bedrock of modern digital technology, have become a critical flashpoint in this new cold war.

• Some argue that this competition drives technological innovation, leading to faster advancements and better products. The race to dominate the microchip industry pushes companies and countries to invest heavily in research and development.
  
  
• However, others point out that this rivalry leads to increased tension and the potential for conflict. The reliance on a few suppliers for critical technology creates vulnerabilities and the risk of supply chain disruptions.

Conclusion: From Science Fiction to Reality

Arthur C. Clarke's assertion that "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic" aptly captures the awe and apprehension surrounding the rapid advancements in technology. As microchips continue to shape our world in ways that once seemed the realm of science fiction, the challenge lies in navigating these developments wisely. 

Balancing innovation with ethical considerations, competition with cooperation, and national interests with global well-being is the tightrope walk of our times. The decisions made today will determine whether technology ultimately serves to uplift humanity or leads it into a new era of conflict and division.

Ian Bremmer, President at Eurasia Group

It’s the annus horribilis,

The Voldemort of years,

The year that must not be spoken,

Welcome to 2024

The “progress” 2024 has made after having lived through more than its 1st third is not serving to lift our mood. Referring to Bob Dylan again it rather supports his dire premonition as obscurely expressed in another of his epic songs "A Hard Rain's A-Gonna Fall".

I once disclosed, considering myself an optimist in a doomed world, I cling to a kind of desperate opiumism. It is not just to feel better during the years that are left to me, but in order to nourish the strength to take action, not just to have been a passenger on star ship earth but a valuable crew member, contributing to its direction and be the change myself.

There will be political responses

Anticipating the Impacts of AI on Jobs, Culture, and Society

A drag holds a human child in Fantastic Planet (1973)

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has finally arrived. 

With the release of ChatGPT3 at the end of 2022, a form of so-called artificial intelligence has become part of the lives of millions of people around the world.

What was once an academic curiosity has now become a dominant mega-topic. The official birth of the AI field is considered to be the legendary Dartmouth Conference in 1956, where John McCarthy coined the term "Artificial Intelligence." Alongside Marvin Minsky, Claude Shannon, and Nathan Rochester, McCarthy organized the conference, thus establishing himself as one of the grandfathers of a development that today stirs the minds of many.

This success was by no means assured. From the Dartmouth Conference to ChatGPT, it was a story of ups and downs, where peaks of minor successes were immediately followed by troughs, the so-called AI winters. After exaggerated expectations that simply could not be met, markets reacted with disappointment, and financing for this esoteric branch of research was cut—leading to a refocus on tangible, achievable tasks.

Now, however, AI has entered the mainstream. It is ubiquitous, dominating investment decisions, celebrated by some as a harbinger of a future of abundance and feared by others as the last invention of humanity before its unstoppable demise.

Once again, we are dealing with exaggerated expectations. Yet, the world of AI experts agrees: there will not be a third AI winter. The genie is out of the bottle and cannot be stopped.

But can we be so sure of this? Could the enormous data hunger for training AI models and/or the horrendous energy demand associated with their use, along with major accidents, simply exaggerated expectations, or other, yet unforeseen events, not again act as a brake and lead to disillusionment?

I consider this possible. But here we are concerned with something else.

"We have reached the threshold of a development that will sustainably change the world in which we work and live."

This statement has been heard frequently in recent weeks and months in one form or another. If we follow this assumption for a moment, with all healthy scepticism towards forecasts, what subsequent effects can we then expect for jobs, culture, and society?

A look at history teaches us that human development proceeds in waves. By no means does it follow a straightforward trend towards more, however defined, "progress." Let us assume for simplicity's sake that the development of the past few years continues in the same direction and speed as before, or even faster. Then AI will indeed sustainably change our lives.

But how?

This is something we need to think about.

This raises a multitude of questions that are not easy, perhaps even impossible, to answer, but whose answers depend on our fate as humanity in its entirety.

Questions such as...

• Are we approaching a time of abundance, as enthusiastic futurists like Peter Diamandis have been predicting for decades? Or do we first lose our jobs, then our purpose in life?

• Will human and machine share work amicably, so that each party does what it is best suited for? Or will AI colleagues soon do everything better than us, and human intervention would only interfere?

• Will a new era of machines dawn, a level higher, more powerful, and more productive than today? Or will machines develop into our new colleagues? Will they, a creation in our image, have consciousness, their own opinions—a will of their own?

• Suppose the development occurs eruptively and quickly in a few epicenters of our planet. Will we find the right solutions for societies in individual countries of this earth and between states for adequate participation in the fruits of this development?
  
  
• Will we have enough time to react to these changes? Do we perhaps even have to anticipate them as alternative scenarios? Or will we, as so often in the past, only notice the societal consequences when they can no longer be denied, and a revolutionary wave demands economic, societal, and thus political changes with disruptive force?

Much about this AI-driven innovation may be new, specific, and quite different than before. Yet, if we want to look into the future, a glance in the rear-view mirror often helps, at past economic waves, often referred to as Kondratiev cycles after their namesake, the Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev.

What advice do we receive from a glance at history when we ask it three simple questions?

• What technological innovations in the history of humanity had societal and political effects?
  
  
• What were these effects?
  
  
• How long did it take until these effects became noticeable?

We should be aware that the impact of technical innovations is often overestimated in the short term but tends to be underestimated in the long term.

What does the retrospect teach us?

Throughout human history, there have been numerous technical innovations. The economic effects of the aforementioned 5 Kondratiev cycles are comparatively well studied. There is significantly less consensus about the societal and political consequences. There had also been innovations before the beginning of industrialization that had significant societal and political effects.

Again, three of them I will consider here as examples. They include...

• The printing press
  
  
• The steam engine
  
  
• The internet

The Printing Press and the Explosive Power of Knowledge for All

Johannes Gutenberg

Developed by Johannes Gutenberg in the 15th century, it created the conditions for previously insider knowledge to find widespread dissemination in large quantities.

The effects of the innovation "printing press" were noticeable within decades.

Favoured by a political environment in which the secular power of traditional authorities was weakened in the aftermath of previous, catastrophic plague epidemics, we saw as immediate or indirect consequences far-reaching intellectual and political movements, such as...

• Renaissance,
  
  
• Humanism,
  
  
• Reformation,
  
  
• Enlightenment

This "emergence of man from his self-imposed immaturity," as Immanuel Kant would later call it, had undeniably positive effects, but also side effects that would plunge Central Europe into a catastrophe, the consequences of which were felt for a long time.

The newfound freedom of thought eventually shook divinely perceived social orders. Counterforces were not long in coming. In the fateful 30 years between the Defenestration of Prague and the Peace of Westphalia, Central Europe was largely devastated. This Thirty Years' War reduced the population of Central Europe by about half.

The Steam Engine and the Long Shadow of the Industrial Revolution

James Watt

Linked with the name James Watt, the steam engine was developed in the 18th century. According to conventional doctrine, it thus initiated the industrial revolution, the 1st Kondratiev cycle.

It changed working conditions and economic structures sustainably, leading to a wave of urbanization. Per capita incomes in the USA, for example, doubled during the 19th century. Life expectancy in Great Britain rose from 40 to 48, the literacy rate from 75% to 97%.

These societal changes became apparent within a few generations.

But this time too, the again undeniably positive effects had their clear downsides. The resulting population growth increased the supply of cheap labor, which was consistently exploited. Social inequalities, exploitation, and the alienation of the working class were the result.

In 1867, Karl Marx published Vol. I of his main work "Das Kapital." He thereby created the theoretical foundations for socialism and communism. The causes, however, lay in the societal tensions enabled by an innovation and the political forces thereby unleashed. They caused revolutions, counter-movements, and ideological conflicts that are still palpable today.

The Internet − the Infrastructure for Communication and Interaction

Tim Berners-Lee

Since the 1960s, developed out of a military need and initially used civically in the academic sphere, the internet has triggered a 5th economic cycle according to Kondratiev.

It has profoundly changed the way we communicate, do business, and organize political movements.

The effects became apparent relatively quickly, in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

As of today, it offers almost every citizen access to the world's knowledge, to communication with individuals, interest groups, and companies. More than in the developed world, it has meanwhile enabled several billion people in the still developing world, such as in India or China, to participate in secured financial transactions and interaction with authorities and companies.

The downside, however, is that it is also used for propaganda, fake news, conspiracy theories, and hate tirades. Although these threats to communities, whose basis is reliable information, are as old as humanity, the now available amount of information is new. Our lack of familiarity with conscientious source verification proves to be problematic here. Increasingly, the abundance of information on offer overwhelms the individual citizen.

Thus, the ubiquity of the internet also tempts surveillance and manipulation by friend and foe. What once began as the great and for official bodies uncontrollable free space has meanwhile developed into the most monitored communication medium in the world. States and companies that operate a significant portion of the internet infrastructure have thereby gained enormous power over states, companies, and citizens who only use this infrastructure. As expected, counter-movements are forming here as well. Their influence, however, is not yet foreseeable. The race is still open. We find ourselves in the midst of a breath-taking development.

These innovations show how technology can change social and political structures, often faster than societies can prepare (for them).

What does this mean for the effects of AI?

Since we have been in the age of artificial intelligence for a few years now, I have, out of courtesy, first also asked AI about its own concerns. So what does ChatGPT 4.0 think about this? − Let's give the colleague (unprompted) the floor.

The question was:

If we transfer these experiences to artificial intelligence.

What can we then expect?

The somewhat sobering answer is given below along with my somewhat flippant comments:

When transferring these historical experiences to artificial intelligence (AI), we can expect significant societal and political changes.

⇨ Oh, really?

AI has the potential to reshape labour markets through automation, increase efficiency in many sectors, and fundamentally change the way we process data and make decisions.

⇨ We didn't need to ask ChatGPT for that

The effects could include both positive aspects such as improved quality of life and healthcare as well as challenges such as job losses and data protection issues.

⇨ I would never have thought of that

These changes could become visible relatively quickly, as the technology develops and spreads rapidly.

⇨ That's true. So, which AI are we talking about?

These answers could have been spontaneously provided by a mediocre career politician. Perhaps they could also have been delivered by t some phrase generator. I guess I'll have to, according to Kant again, dare to use my own mind.

ANI, AGI, ASI − AI is not all the same

ANI - AGI − ASI, these three acronyms are commonly used to describe the stages of an expected development of artificial intelligence. This is - counterforces unconsidered - the expected course.

The three stages listed are briefly characterized as follows.

ANI − Artificial Narrow Intelligence

• Models trained for specific tasks, which can already be far superior to current human capabilities in those tasks.

• This is the position where development has arrived here and now. Its influence is already palpable in approaches today but will intensify significantly.

• ANI will sustainably transform the economy and society. We will feel effects, perceived as positive as well as negative, that are comparable to those of the three selected innovations, or may even exceed them.

Even at this stage, a technology impact assessment is an almost impossible task. However, not addressing it would be a culpable omission.

AGI − Artificial General Intelligence

• This is the state popularly referred to as "Singularity." Then machines will reach human level. Since there is no consensus on exactly how to define that, I add "in all intellectual and emotional dimensions".

• Thus, they should have left the level of a (soulless) machine and mutated into a new life form, an act of creation in which we create a being in our image, if that will ever be possible. These beings will have consciousness, must receive rights & will (unfortunately) be similar to us.

• They will be as smart as an average human, but also as stupid. They can then be our partners, assistants, or colleagues on the job − but also autonomous warriors. And of course, they will also take their own further development into their own hands, be able to reproduce independently.

ASI − Artificial Super Intelligence

• An ASI, probably a "being," is by definition far above the level of human intelligence. Since we have no model for such beings, I'd rather skip a further description here.

• It is also completely unclear whether this state is fundamentally achievable. Whether it is even desirable is another philosophical question. Some recognized AI experts and successful book authors think that the open-ended ASI universe can be reached very quickly once we have reached the AGI level. But in the graph above, the innocent term "unknown breakthroughs" stands for this. So, fundamental technical and perhaps even epistemological advances are still to be achieved, whose nature we cannot even guess, before the AGI stage can be reached.

• For decades, prominent AI developers and researchers have been warning that their own work will create this homunculus, which after a Eureka moment "It‘s alive, it’s alive!" will take over world domination and destroy us all or at least treat us as negligently as we treat the wildlife around us today.

• Yes, if these super beings will be socialized in the same way we humans have become over the course of our evolution, then this is a valid option, albeit not a very pleasant one. This horror scenario is of course pure speculation. Perhaps a real superintelligence would also have completely different priorities. Maybe it would even be the salvation from ourselves.

ANI − Tense in the Here and Now

Jobs − Will we all become unemployed?

Let's first hear the voices of others. What do our recognized AI experts have to say on this topic?

Raj Mukherjee

"We've seen it all before. Every technological revolution has led to the loss of jobs. But new jobs will be created, and many new jobs will be created in the course of this AI revolution.."

Raj Mukherjee thus represents the prevailing opinion. According to this rosy future picture, humans and robots will divide the work according to their capabilities: we humans will keep interesting, fulfilling tasks for ourselves. Everything annoyingly boring, repetitive, mechanical remains with the bots.

However, this utopia is spontaneously opposed by three caveats. Because ...

• Even today, AI has a firm place in the creative business.
  
  
• Just for simple tasks, the human is simply still simply the cheaper option.
  
  
• For some "bullshit jobs" one may simply not want to admit that machines can do that too. Here, a human must still "stick his neck out".

Maybe this time, however, the course will take a different direction.

According to an analysis commissioned by the IMF, 40% of jobs worldwide will be "affected" by AI. In developed economies, it is even supposed to be around 60%. Classic industrial jobs will hardly change thereafter through the use of AI.

Academics and office workers in manufacturing, however, will be supported by AI. As a result, fewer of them will be needed. Other corporate tasks can be completely taken over by AI.

Well-founded and painstakingly acquired knowledge through years of study will no longer be a job guarantee. As long as the threshold to AGI is not crossed, human labour will certainly still be needed in many places in our economy and administration. There will be fewer of them than before. On the other hand, some new positions will be created.

But let's assume that AGI will actually be reached at some point, then it will still take a while. But at some point, we will all lose our jobs.

Inequality - It has the potential to tear societies apart

Let's first hear the voices of others. What do our recognized AI experts have to say on this topic?

Sam Altman

"I believe that AI will be the greatest force for economic development. We will see many more people become rich than ever before."

What will become of the rest, I involuntarily ask myself, the "left behinds," how will their live be?

Without far-reaching interventions in our way of life and economic model, the application of artificial intelligence will probably only further intensify the already prevailing trend towards economic inequality. This inequality usually grows in politically and economically calm times.

Without intervention it can take on extreme dimensions and can only be reduced by catastrophically incisive events such as epidemics, wars, or revolutions. In doing so, economic inequality grows within national societies as well as among nations, if they do not fight back with means that are considered unfair by convinced market economists.

Extreme economic inequality can lead to social unrest and economic inefficiency. It has the potential to tear societies apart. As with previous innovations, there will have to be political responses to such technology-induced upheavals.

Unlike in the past, however, we will not have much time to address the challenge. We have not even generally recognized it as a danger yet.

Changes in Culture & Society

"The future is here − it is just not equally distributed" is often quoted from science fiction author William Gibson. That means, if we want to know what it will look like (soon) in our area, we just have to look around. In a few, select avant-garde corners and crannies of our society, we will find material to view for a glimpse into our own future.

Yann LeCun, AI expert at Meta sees AI as the future of communication: "We will constantly talk to these AI assistants. Our entire digital communication will be mediated by AI systems." Will the already difficult communication between people then fall by the wayside? Well, it will inevitably happen less frequently in this scenario. Hopefully, we won't get out of practice.

Scott Adams, the well-known author of the popular Dilbert cartoons, even sees the gender ratio disturbed. From his (male) perspective, men will increasingly turn to low-maintenance digital girlfriends in the future: “The girlfriend Singularity is here. Human women had a good run.“

This may still seem quite far-fetched to us. Nevertheless, our interaction will change. Rather questionable offers in this context already exist. Apparently, we are in for a journey into the unknown.

Another question we will have to deal with is how we will deal with the loss of a profession that fulfils us, makes us proud, from which we derive our self-esteem. Is a life without a mission meaningless? Will decreasing self-esteem due to job loss become a mass phenomenon?

The much-discussed unconditional basic income may become necessary. As long as our social status is job-centered, and just as our self-esteem is defined by it, however, it will not solve the problem of job loss.

In our lives, other values will have to gain importance. Maybe we should look to role models in other, foreign cultures or on the fringes of our own societies, for whom work has never been the centre of life and who have nevertheless been able to conduct a good life.

We will have to redefine the meaning of life.

Outlook on AGI & ASI - What Developments Are Expected?

Here we enter unknown territory. This is the realm of pure speculation. Some well-known AI experts have already undertaken this for me. Let's let four of them have their say.

Elon Musk

"For the first time, we will have something that is smarter than the smartest human. It's hard to say exactly when that will be, but there will come a point when no work will be necessary anymore."

Yuval Noah Harari

"We may be talking about the end of human history - the end of the period dominated by humans.."

Paul Christiano

"I think there is a 10- to 20-percent chance that AI will take over, with many, most people dying."

Geoffrey Hinton

“Humanity is just a temporary phase of evolutionary intelligence.“

Will an Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) deal with humanity as we deal with the wildlife today?

Is it even responsible for the "Great Filter" resulting from the Fermi paradox, which has so far prevented aliens from contacting us (because they have all been turned off by their own AI beforehand).

So exciting philosophical questions arise. Personally, I tend to agree with Kai-Fu Lee, book author, former Google China boss & founder of the start-up 01.AI: "The Singularity is still not our problem".

But we have to deal with the immediate consequences of a broad application of artificial intelligence, with wealth concentrations, possibly mass unemployment, and the loss of a natural self-understanding that was based on one's own creation of values.

If we have indeed reached the threshold of a development that will sustainably change the world in which we work and live, it is now time to think about the consequences for jobs, culture, and society.

As in the wake of the great innovations of the past, there will have to be political responses to the new economic constellations.

Unlike in the past, however, we will not have much time for an appropriate response. And there will be political responses, whether we act now or not. It would therefore be good to think about the "how" now, to at least have the chance of influencing the course of history ahead of us.