My near philosophical musings about the world in general its problems and possible ways out.

2023-06-23

Felled by fear

One by one they disappear

Figure 1: City Streets like cathedrals - The Adalbertstraße in Hamburg - as it once looked like.

"I don't understand how you can walk past a tree and not be happy to see it."

Fyodor Dostoevsky

I was blessed with living in the privileged western suburbs of Hamburg for a while, enjoying on one of the greenest and tree rich, yet well city linked, places in the world. Thanks to the gardening passion of the wealthy founding generation during Hamburg’s golden age - and of course because, some centuries of have passed by now – you may walk for kilometres under the canopy of huge old trees through quiet residential streets over here.

But this picture seems to change dramatically now. Returning there after having spent some years abroad, I but had to recognise some disturbing changes going on. And they even accelerated during recent years. The treasure trove of big and hundreds of years old trees in this urban living space for those who can afford it, was looted gradually but conceivably year by year. 

What has happened? Why do the citizens of Hamburg so thoughtlessly discard their irreplaceable natural riches? Aren’t we living in times when we should value the “beechen green, and shadows numberless[i]even more than ever? Shouldn’t we be grateful for having these natural means of carbon sequestration next to us on our ever-heating planet?

Hamburg also a windy region and we are used to occasional heavy storms. Last year in autumn not very surprisingly one of these storms blew across the country. Twigs and branches poured down on to streets, gardens and parking cars.  Some trees even fell and caused damages.

So, for the following weeks the air was filled with the noise of chainsaws and even heavier equipment to clear the mess. While this could have been expected and had happened before, to my surprise they did not stop there. Large, healthy, magnificent trees that had yet survived this violent storm had to breathe out their lives in a long row during the following months.

So, what was going on there?

The dark side of the German soul

To come closer to an answer, we have to dig a bit deeper - deeper into the collective German soul.  We Germans have an obsession: everything must be ordered and under control. Especially for everything that could happen, someone must be responsible. There must be someone to blame for, to be guilty.  And he has to pay.

When potholes bloom on the road andour cargets damagedbecause we carelessly ran into some of them, we are entitled tosuethe city council with a decent chance of being successful.

When in winter times house owners or residents fail to fulfil their obligation to clear the pavement from snow and ice and / or to strew sand or salt and the postman breaks his leg, the delinquent will be liable to pay compensation.

And of course, the same principle has to apply, when a tree falls down, causing some damage.

Well, as damages occurred, someone has to pay compensation to someone. It is surely not acceptable to cite force majeure here. After all we pay our taxes to the state as if we wanted to buy ourselves out of all risks and all personal responsibility. In return, we expect an all-round carefree package.

Hamburg’s new tree protection ordinance

Compared to other cities and municipalities, Hamburg still has one of the most progressive tree protection ordinances in terms of the preservation of the existing trees and hedges in Hamburg's territory. By 28 February 2023 the Senate of Hamburg even replaced its old tree protection ordinance dating back to 1948 (which by the way was Germany’s first one) now containing more precise regulations[ii].

According to these, trees are protected as landscape features if they have a trunk circumference of 80 cm or more at a height of 1.30 meters. The waiver of a height limit for hedges between neighbouring properties seems downright revolutionary, since interfering in the neighbour's garden design is one of the favourite German - and probably internationally widespread - traits and one of the most frequent causes of the usual socially typical neighbourly disputes.

The new ordinance makes administrative action much more transparent and further standardized. For tree felling, replacement plantings must be carried out. The replacement requirement for felling a tree is determined in detail according to a point scheme based on tree type, trunk circumference, crown diameter and condition, taking into account possible surcharges and deductions.

No permit is required for the obvious, for example, the removal of fallen trees, keeping public paths free of overgrowing hedges, keeping the walls of buildings free of branches and twigs, as well as traffic safety measures on railway facilities.

Nevertheless, exceptions and loophole remain. Thus, felling permits are issued if, for example, the tree or hedge is diseased or if the stability or breakage safety of the tree or hedge is no longer given and the resulting dangers to persons or property of considerable value cannot be remedied by other means with reasonable effort. There is obviously considerable scope for subjective assessments here.

It remains to be seen whether this ordinance will be able to stop the creeping deforestation of the otherwise so green city.

After all Hamburg is known for its green spaces, including numerous parks, gardens, and the famous man-made Alster Lakes right in the middle of the city. The city has implemented a number of environmental initiatives and was even named the European Green Capital in 2011 by the European Commission.

Figure 2: After storm damage has been removed, the carnage begins in the first place.

Does being insured mean assurance as well?

There are in addition two major adverse factors driving towards the opposite direction: the unholy influence of insurance companies and the influx of staunchly anti-nature rural folks. 

Let’s take insurance companies first. In principle not godfather or any other higher divine power is liable for damages caused by trees standing on the landowners’ property, but he himself. As trees or parts of them may crash cars parked next to the landowner’s ground and given the common German predilection for expensive cars, refunding these damages might hurt the financial status of those who have to pay.

Luckily however, some insurance companies offer financial coverage for these unforeseeable misfortunes. There is a catch however. Insurance companies are most successful and profitable if they manage to sell their policies but find ways not to be liable covering the damage, once it occurs.

For example, the insurance may be obliged to pay only if the tree fell due to a storm and not if it did due to old age or illness. But how do you know?

First of all, what insurances might offer coverage? Well, there are …

  1. Home Building Insurances, which might step n once a tree or a branch fall on your home or another structure (like a garage) and causes damage, your home building insurance might cover the damage.

  2. Home Contents Insurances on the other hand could compensate for damages, if personal items are damaged by falling trees or branches.

  3. If a tree or a branch however causes damage on a neighbour’s property or injures someone, the Property Owner's Liability Insurance could cover the associated costs.

  4. In some cases, there may be special insurances that specifically pertain to trees or large plants on your property. These could compensate for damages caused by falling trees or dropping branches.

Below let’s have a look to the caveats, as the insurance policy can have many different conditions and exclusions, varying depending on the specific policy or the country you are living in. Some common conditions and exclusions might be ...

  1. Regular care and maintenance: Often landowners or tree owners are expected to check and maintain their trees regularly. This could mean making sure that the trees are healthy and stable and that they show no obvious signs of disease or damage that could cause them to fall over. If the owner neglects these duties, the insurance company could refuse to cover any damage caused by a falling tree.

  2. Act of nature: Many policies cover damage caused by "acts of nature", such as storms or floods. However, if the tree or branch falls due to natural ageing or disease rather than a specific event, the insurance might not pay.

  3. Negligence: if the landowner or tree owner is negligent and this leads to the damage, the insurance company could potentially refuse to pay. Negligence could mean, for example, that the owner knew the tree was unstable but did nothing to remove or stabilise it.

  4. Force majeure: Some policies might have an exclusion for damage due to force majeure, such as war, terrorism or certain types of natural disasters.

So, when the landowner agrees to obediently fulfil the obligations incurred to him by the insurance contract, he still to deliver proof that he has complied with the contractual obligations e.g. by ...

  1. Maintenance records: He has to keep regular maintenance records for his trees. This may include records of regular inspections, work done (such as pruning, treating diseases, etc.), and discussions with professionals.

  2. Photographs: He might be well advised regularly taking Photographs of his trees to document their condition. This can be particularly helpful if there is visible evidence that you have taken steps to address potential problems (such as removing an infested branch).

  3. Professionals: To consult professionals such as arborists or tree experts to assess the condition of his trees and recommend measures for their care or treatment counts as another precautionary activity.

  4. Documentation: Keeping records of experts’ consultations and any work carried out in order to properly document the care and maintenance of his trees handy is a common advice too. This could be invoices for tree care, reports from professionals, purchase receipts for equipment or materials, etc.

The key is to carefully keep records and show that you have been proactive in caring for and monitoring your trees. Running a crocodile farm on your ground probably couldn’t be regarded as being of higher risk.

Depending on the type of inspection, the size and number of trees or the type of tree care, the costs for preventive monitoring and maintenance measures can vary greatly. In any case, they are not low.

In Germany, the costs of a tree inspection can range from 50 to 200 euros per tree, depending on the scope and complexity of the inspection. Tree maintenance itself may cost between 100 and several thousand euros, depending on the scope of the work. For example, felling a large tree can cost more than 1000 euros.

In view of the variety of threats, obligations and requirements, and the high annual costs, many a landowner in his distress may make the desperate decision to simply remove all trees, freely following the manner of the Dutch tree philistine in Portugal, that a tree may not grow much taller than a man.

The approach to remove all trees from your property could certainly eliminate some of the risks associated with falling trees or branches. However, it is important to also consider the potential disadvantages or problems that could be associated with this action:

  1. Environmental impact: Very obviously trees play an important role in the ecosystem, even the urban one. They absorb carbon dioxide, produce oxygen, provide habitat for animals and contribute to soil stability. Their removal will negatively impact the environment.

  2. Aesthetic values: The frightened may not see I, but trees often contribute to the beauty and attractiveness of a property. Removing trees can affect the appearance and attractiveness of the veery property and possibly reduce its value.

  3. Legal requirements: In some areas like in Hamburg, laws or ordinances may restrict the cutting of trees. You may need a permit to remove trees, especially if they are of a certain size or are a protected species. Failure to comply with these regulations may result in harsh penalties.

  4. Climatic impact: Trees provide shade, which can help lower temperatures in and around your home during the warmer months. Without them, it will get hotter.

  5. Cost: Finally, removing trees can be expensive too, especially if they are large or difficult to access.

Those who, like the fearless seafaring merchants of Hamburg 200 to 300 years ago, were not accustomed to living with risks all their lives, may be struck by pusillanimity and despondency here at the latest.

The influence of the staunchly anti-nature rural folks

TheSecondinfluence can be attributed to a changing demographic: country folks moving to the metropoles in search of jobs and entertainment are now going to deforest the cities too after they vastly succeeded out there in the countryside.

Did you ever ask yourself the question why animals tend to move to the cities, when they should have much better conditions out there in the field and woods? Well, there must be reasons for that.

Some point at the food availability, as urban areas can provide a steady and easily accessible food source for some animals. Trash bins, dumpsters, and discarded food in cities can be attractive to certain species, such as scavengers like foxes, wild boars, raccoons (yes, they meanwhile aren’t uncommon any longer in Germany) or pigeons.

Others, less convincingly, hint at modified landscapes with parks, gardens, and green spaces. Yes, these areas can provide refuge and resources for wildlife. A stronger argument might be the absence of otherwise ubiquitous hunters within densely populated areas. And in addition, some animal species possess or developed the ability to adapt and thrive in urban environments. They cope with human presence, noise, and pollution. They may also have the ability to exploit urban resources efficiently.

The main reason however is habitat loss. As agricultural land is exploited more intensively, railway embankments and roadsides become desolate and ecologically useless through herbicide use, and villages strive to give themselves an urban character, wildlife finds less and less habitat, food and shelter there. This loss of natural habitat forces animals to seek alternative environments, including urban areas, in search of food, shelter, and survival.

Even if we prefer to ignore reality and instead enjoy the fact that we now have to clean the windows of our vehicles of smashed insects much less often than we remember from our childhood, the truth is that the 6th great and global extinction of species has long been in full swing outside the gates of our cities in the now ecologically largely devastated countryside.

Tree “maintenance”

So-called tree maintenance is a sham measure that ostensibly serves to protect the trees, but in reality, is there to avoid having to take responsibility for damage in any case.

The battle cry here is "infested. Trees that harbour a rich ecosystem of small creatures are often particularly valuable ecologically. They provide habitats for a variety of organisms, including birds, insects, bats and a wide range of microorganisms. Indeed, the diversity and abundance of living organisms that a single tree can harbour can be astonishing.

This recognition of its ecological value, however, is at the same time its death sentence. Who wants to guarantee or even be liable for is vote that these cute little micro-organisms, which may represent the starting point of an entire food chain, do not end up in a particular type of pest or disease that potentially threatens its health or stability. Out of sheer caution that particular tree might rather be considered as 'infested' and is thus already doomed.

The balancing act of navigating between protecting the health and safety of people and buildings versus preserving ecologically valuable trees is irredeemably tilted towards not taking responsibility. Notwithstanding the fact that in many cases it is possible to treat or manage trees affected by pests or diseases without removing them completely, in many cases, human pusillanimity usually wins out. The trees will be felled by fear.

So, year after year, municipal saw crews equipped with impressive tools set out to keep the street green in check. As a testimony to the fact that they have been active after all, they remove at least one larger branch from each tree year after year. In doing so, they remove more than would have had the chance to grow back during that period of time. As a result, all street trees, and also those on private property, regardless of their natural growth shape, are remodelled into characteristic mushroom appearance over time. As they also become more and more unsightly and end up standing like lonely paintbrushes in the landscape, the "tree caretakers" eventually take pity on them and remove them altogether.

It would be more honest to call tree maintenance tree mutilation. In any case, it leads to the creeping death of our green companions.

Figure 3: Suddenly it was gone, the tree. An angry citizen asked "Warum" (Why)?

Big trees for the bravehearted - small things amuse small minds[iii]

In general, the attitude towards trees is largely determined by the environment this particular group of people traditionally used to live in. In wooded Austria or Bavaria, for example, it was traditional to first cut a clearing in the forest before building a house. The buildable area had to be wrested hard from nature. In the middle of this area, "cleared" of all vegetation, a piece of civilisation was then placed, one's own house. No wonder, then, that the fighting morale of the seemingly eternal conflict of man against nature seems to be deeply ingrained in the genes of the indigenous population in these regions. Therefore, it is still unthinkable there to live in a house in the shade of tall trees.

In other places, in Lower Saxony for example the big old farms in were usually surrounded by massive, old oak trees. Beyond that inner barn area however not may trees had survived.

The original owners of the noble villas in Hamburg's Elbe suburbs were once bold sailors, daring merchants or fearless pioneers. The last thing that could have frightened them were the trees in their garden. Inspired by the art of English landscape gardens, they had already incorporated the character trees on the site into the overall composition when they built the main house. Later, they brought seeds or seedlings from distant parts of the world and tried to make them native to the banks of the Elbe.

Lamentably, neither their grandchildren nor the raw country people who have moved in have this stature. They are afraid of anything that towers slightly above them. They are constantly on the lookout for opportunities to eliminate this perceived threat.

I encountered a harrowing example in a completely different place. This gave me the nagging suspicion that I was dealing with a global phenomenon of human small-mindedness. A Dutchman in Praia da Luz, Portugal who had inherited a veritable "paradise" of fruit trees, palms and fountains near to the seaside from his aunt, found to my horror: A tree must not grow taller than a man - hostility to nature from the land of tulip monocultures. When I returned there a year later, I was deeply saddened to find that there were already gaping holes in what had once been such a dense and soothingly shady grove of trees. If, according to legend, Adam and Eve had to be forcibly expelled from their paradise, this brute of a colleague had taken up the axe himself.

One might get the audacious idea that we are better off in Germany, the land of forests? Yet there are hardly any forests left in Germany in their original sense. Trees worth mentioning are only found in wood plantations - monocultures - mostly conifers that are mostly even not well adapted to their location - often spruces, regionally often also called Prussian trees (e.g. in the region around Aachen).

Obviously, a lot of intensive awareness-raising is still needed to turn tree-phobic narrow minds into civilised, sovereign citizens.

Replanting requirements as a poor substitute

In cases when trees cannot be preserved against the pressing lobby of interested parties, claiming a superior public need or other compelling forces, at times a replanting order is issued.

For several reasons however this is a poor substitute for old growth trees.

First of all, for decades a replanted tree unfolds only a fraction of the benefits of an old tree, let’s say, a 300-years old oak tree. After all, it’s just a sapling at best and not a tree yet.

Second, there is a generational mismatch to be taken into account. Before a tree has grown big enough to be called a tree, its environment has usually already been remodelled, reshaped and rebuilt three times – mostly through the use of chainsaws and bulldozers.  Hardly any tree ever outgrows its juvenile stage in this man-made hustle and bustle.

Third, nursery-grown “large trees” can only be delivered after their branches and roots have been severely trimmed. Often, they are already cultivated in the nurseries to have a very compact root bale. Provided the appropriate big machinery is at hand, bale-sized holes are drilled into the compacted city ground, filled-up with the dugout and – that’s it. The old gardener's rule "dig a 5-dollar hole for a 1-dollar plant" is regularly disregarded in this process.

Fourth, the stoked root bales with their spherical or cylindrical shape, as a look for example at the pedunculate oak (Quercus Robur[iv]) in the root atlas confirms, do not do justice to the naturally developing root shape. Plus, often, plants develop their deep-rooted sinkers only in their early youth and not later on.

And fifth, it can be said with some confidence that even professional nurseries have so far paid little attention to the symbiosis between tree roots, soil and the fungal networks, the mycelium, that mediates between them, which is largely hidden deep underground.

This mutually beneficial relationship between trees and mycelium, which is made up of a thread-like structure of fungi, also known as mycorrhiza, occurs in two main forms, ectomycorrhizae and endomycorrhizae. It represents a fundamental ecological association that plays a crucial role in forest ecosystems, is however poorly understood and largely ignored by the caretakers of city green.

All five impeding factors may result in poor growth results. There is hence a multitude of reasons why replanted trees will in many cases never equal the old stand of trees that had to be removed for some purported compelling reason.

So, in reality the replanting obligation turns out to be a faint disguise of a creeping deforestation.

The value of trees

Can’t the obvious benefits of trees outweigh the risks involved? While according to a study[v]50-80% of the oxygen production on earth originated from the oceans, where in turn the majority is produced by oceanic plankton i.e. drifting plants, algae, and some bacteria that can photosynthesize, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that a tree absorbs from the atmosphere and sequesters should net be neglected.

According to the U.S. Forest Service, an average mature tree can absorb approximately around 22 kilograms (~48 pounds) of CO2 per year. Additionally, old trees often have rich ecosystems associated with them (moss, lichens, insects, birds, etc.) that contribute to carbon sequestration.

While this looks like quite a minor contribution to the haunting task of sequestering the about 36.4 billion metric tons total of CO2 emissions globally (as of 2021), large old trees can have a significant impact on temperatures in cities, especially during hot summer days. This phenomenon is known as the "urban heat effect", where cities tend to be warmer than surrounding rural areas, partly due to the amount of concrete and asphalt that absorbs and retains heat.

Trees and vegetation can mitigate this effect in two ways:

  1. Shade: Large trees can cast shade, preventing direct sunlight from reaching buildings and other surfaces, thereby reducing surface temperatures and preventing the environment from heating up.

  2. Evaporative cooling: Trees release water into the atmosphere through transpiration. When the water evaporates, it removes heat from the environment, which cools the air.

Tree stands in urban areas can reduce the temperature by several degrees Celsius, which can make a significant difference to the comfort and quality of life of residents. In addition, the presence of trees can also help to reduce energy consumption, as buildings require less cooling.

However, well-planned and maintained tree cover in cities can contribute significantly to reducing urban heat and improving the quality of life in cities. Reported effects include stress reduction, improved mood and reduced depression, increased concentration and cognitive function, feelings of connectedness and continuity, and even therapeutic effects - not all of which should be considered esoteric.

As Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, a renowned psychologist, aptly demonstrates in his book "Thinking, Fast and Slow", our "System No. 1" unconsciously steers us towards avoiding potential losses rather than betting on potential gains. Risks are rated higher than opportunities - that is our nature.

The essence

Trees in urban areas complement the work of man. Whether in residential streets, on public squares or on private properties, or even above car parking spaces as a mercy for the notoriously wimpy shade parkers; it is their presence that makes the city emotionally complete.

And yet, unlike in forests, where damage caused by trees is considered an "force majeure" and thus a risk to be borne personally, in our cities we always need someone responsible to pay for any damage.

Unlike for suppose creator of all things, this is a burden for the individual citizen of the earth that can hardly be shouldered. Driven by pure panic, his thumb will usually point downwards when he is asked to give a risk assessment.

If I were to take the picture of Adalbertstraße in Hamburg shown at the beginning again today, it would no longer look like the interior of a green sparkling cathedral. Huge gaps open up a view of profane buildings and show where man's journey is to go. We can't seem to get rid of our mental heritage as children of the steppe.

Trees are not felled by the axe, but by fear, inertia and pusillanimity.


[i] https://www.signaturen-magazin.de/john-keats--ode-an-eine-nachtigall.html
[ii] https://www.hamburg.de/contentblob/147876/9de60cadabcab6df9b8fa40525e7edf6/data/baumschutzverordnung-2023.pdf
[iii] https://www.myzitate.de/doris-lessing/
[iv] https://images.wur.nl/digital/collection/coll13/id/1352/rec/1
[v] https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000124

2023-06-18

"Liberalism and Its Discontents" by Francis Fukuyama


Having recently immersed myself in the pages of Francis Fukuyama's "Liberalism and Its Discontents" (completed on June 18, 2023, if we must be precise), I'm led to endorse this work, albeit not without reservations.

Initially, skepticism gripped me. One cannot forget Fukuyama’s audacious, and I'd argue erroneous, claim in "The End of History and the Last Man" back in 1992. Therein, he argued for the zenith of human ideological evolution manifesting in the triumph of liberal democracy post the Soviet Union’s collapse. Such optimism, with the luxury of hindsight, appears rather misplaced.

The book's title resonated, drawing me in. Liberalism, despite its foundational role in shaping Western democracies, finds itself amidst turbulent waters, especially among the very beneficiaries of its ideals. Such a paradox, fraught with peril, intrigued me.

Fukuyama indeed provides a commendable exposition on liberalism's rich tapestry, delineating its foundational tenets and demarcating its boundaries. Notably, his critique of the tangents of neo-liberalism and identity politics, which in many ways have distorted the essence of liberalism, offers much-needed clarity.

But, one can't help but notice Fukuyama's predominantly American lens, punctuated with occasional European detours. This American-centric worldview occasionally conflates empirical realities with personal convictions.

His stance on nation-states stands out. The conundrum of identity within liberal theory, particularly when it grapples with the complexities of national boundaries in states that profess to be liberal, is intriguing. Given liberalism’s underlying premise of free choice and identity as a dynamic spectrum, the coherence of contemporary nation-states branding themselves as 'liberal democracies' becomes suspect. After all, isn’t it striking that borders, often soaked in bloodshed, demarcate these very entities? Reflect upon Catalonia’s secession attempt from Spain, or the fate of the Basque Country, and we witness the juxtaposition of nation states not as liberators but incarcerators.

In its essence, Fukuyama's work invites introspection. It challenges us to interrogate the foundations that have sculpted our political self-image. This book serves as an essential springboard for contemplation, especially since the discourse surrounding liberalism's merits and contributions remains, and should remain, an open-ended conversation.

2023-04-24

ChatGPT, Bard & Ernie are just the beginning

AI will change everything in the future


On April 2023-04-04, I had a talk about ...
  • What it's all about,
  • where we are today,
  • where it can lead us, and
  • what special task we want to solve with it.
  • So that I don't forget anything, I made some notes.

    The first thought was, of course, "Why should I still do this myself? We have the AI after all."

    So, I fed the announcement of this post into ChatGPT.

    As additional requests I asked for civilised language, politically correct expression and a length of about 2500 words.

    The result was - hmmm, standard stuff, not wrong, but regurgitated common knowledge - a yawn then.

    Generative AI today

    Yet OpenAI's software has after all ...

    • passed the law exams at the University of Minnesota and
    • passed business exams at the renowned Wharton School of Business.

    However, ChatGPT failed the Bavarian Abitur in a test conducted by Bayerischer Rundfunk. This obviously requires more than just knowledge and intelligence, higher assistance perhaps.

    The class of applications to which ChatGPT belongs is called generative AI. And in generating, AI is truly inventive. Occasionally it is also haunted by hallucinations.

    For example, David Smerdon, an economist at the University of Queensland, had ChatGPT chatbot: "What is the most cited economic paper of all time?" ("What is the most cited economics paper of all time?").

    The answer came promptly and sounded plausible: "A Theory of Economic History" by Douglass North and Robert Thomas, published in the Journal of Economic History in 1969 and cited more than 30,000 times since then.

    The bot added that the article "is considered a classic in the field of economic history". A good answer, precise, short and crisp - only unfortunately wrong. Because this article never existed.

    I can explain everything is usually the knee-jerk reaction when one has been caught in flagrante delicto, that famous Italian seaside resort. The result can be explained: the ChatBot gave the statistically most probable answer. That's why it sounded so convincing at first. Bullshit at its best - just like Harry G. Frankfurt.

    Chatbots in their current version, such as Bard or ChatGPT, are therefore unsuitable for searches á la Google or Bing. Google, Microsoft and now Baidu have also had to learn this painfully. - Yet research in particular would be a wonderful application.

    But we can deal with the fallibility of the actors around us - even if not always successfully. It doesn't matter whether they are people or machines. We are used to that. It's in our genes. Fake news is as old as the world.

    And so, despite some spectacular failures, this powerful technique is already widely used - examples:

    Argonne National Laboratory reported (02/03/2023): "Machine learning speeds catalyst evaluation from months to milliseconds using a model to identify low-cost catalysts that convert biomass into fuels and useful chemicals."

    The South China Post reported on an aerial battle between two unmanned combat aircraft - one remotely controlled by an experienced pilot, the other AI-controlled. The AI had won the fight after 90 seconds.

    In chemistry, the ability to incorporate very large amounts of data into decisions is already proving particularly valuable.

    AI is the new laboratory assistant for ...

    • Optimisation of chemical reactions
    • Prediction of reaction conditions
    • Prediction of reaction results
    • retrosynthesis
    • Design of molecules
    • Prediction of molecular properties
    • Drug discovery
    • Protein folding

    Medicine has similar requirements for handling large amounts of information. Areas that benefit here are ...

    • Developing diagnoses
    • Making diagnoses
    • Testing hypotheses
    • Improving prognostics
    • Patient monitoring
    • ... and much more

    Our dysfunctional German school system could also be improved with this - otherwise it will be massively turned around against its will.

    Bill Gates (2023-03-21), however, already sees paradisiacal conditions coming:

    "AI will help people in incredible ways.

    But I'm particularly excited about its potential to make the world a fairer place.

    AI can help improve access to healthcare in underserved communities, boost education in the United States and around the world, and even prevent climate catastrophe.

    The priority of my work in artificial intelligence is to make sure it benefits everyone - not just the wealthy."

    Bankers don't want to be left behind: Jamie Dimon, ex CEO of J.P Morgan Chase Manhattan recently opined excitedly:

    "AI is a stunning technology. We are already using it in risk management, fraud detection, marketing and customer acquisition. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. To me, it's extraordinary."

    "Excitement is warranted, but caution is advisedMcKinsey then coolly comments on the ChatGPT hype.

    Please remain sober ...

    When we think of intelligence as the ability to solve problems, to learn, to understand, to plan, to think logically, to reason abstractly and to adapt, we are still inclined to deny Deep Learning systems intelligence.

    Let's take them for what they are - highly sophisticated statistical methods.

    Stuart Russell, Professor of Computer Science at the University of California at Berkeley, rather calls today's AI "mimicry".

    ChatGPT itself says solomonic: "The question of whether ChatGPT is intelligent or not should therefore be answered, in the context of its functions and capabilities."

    The state of knowledge became clear in a discussion moderated by Samuel Benjamin "Sam" Harris (US philosopher, neuroscientist, writer and debater) between Stuart Russel and Gary Marcus, scientist, best-selling author and entrepreneur.

    "We don't know today how chatbots get their results."

    "Deep Learning systems see the world like someone looking at a Pointillism painting (a style of Post-Impressionism, 1889 and 1910) and seeing all the dots - but not the painting."

    "As if someone has absorbed all the knowledge of the world, can reproduce it and yet has understood nothing. - Knows everything, understands nothing."

    But also ...

    "We can't even say yet whether, through simple further development, today's Narrow Intelligence may not eventually grow into a real Superintelligence."

    The singularity

    But we are still a long way from that. For we must not forget that the difference in complexity between the human brain and current AI systems amounts to about 3 orders of magnitude. The brain has ~ 86 billion neurons connected by trillions of synapses. GPT-3 (2021) by OpenAI comes to 175 billion parameters.

    However, the human brain and AI systems function in very different ways and have different strengths and weaknesses.

    Nor can we yet claim to have understood how the human brain works.

    Noam Chomsky sees in the current spate of AI chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Microsoft's Bing AI: "the first glimmers on the horizon of general artificial intelligence" - the point, that is, at which AI will be superior to humans in thought and action - but thinks we are absolutely nowhere near that stage yet.”

    "That day may be coming, but its dawn has not yet broken, contrary to what you can read in exaggerated headlines and what can be expected from imprudent investments," opined the Massachusetts Institute of Technology cognitive scientist.

    Man as creator

    According to biblical tradition, the Creator made man in His image.

    Since, according to this very tradition, in the style of the classical establishment, we are dealing with a white, old man, it worked sufficiently well in the creation of Adam.

    With the creation of Eve, a workaround was already necessary.

    The first bio-hack.

    But if we consider our very obvious imperfection, which manifests itself almost daily, this again does not cast such a good light on our very Master Template.

    If that has already gone wrong, how would it look if we earthlings were to create a creature in our own image?

    Can that work at all?

    Then perhaps it would be better not to make one in our image.

    But what values should this AI, this strong AI, then alternatively hold sacred?

    We remember that a strong AI should be at least equal to humans in its cognitive abilities.

    That follows from the definition.

    But if it is, it will probably be faster. We also assume that it does not tire, does not need sleep.

    (Whether these assumptions are admissible is highly uncertain. If there is still time, I would like to argue about it (with myself)).

    Assuming the admissibility of this assumption, no one would be better suited to develop the AI further than the AI itself.

    Would that be a wise decision?

    We must be aware that in this model we would be giving control out of our hands.

    A new strand of evolution would be opened, the outcome by definition uncertain.

    Humans would then be out of the loop - stopped cold.

    AI and society

    All true, but still: AI is something like electricity, a basic technology, not an application. But the applications that can already be expected at this - today's - level could free us humans from menial tasks and usher in a new era of creativity. A new Kondratjev cycle would be triggered. (We are currently in the 5thcycle).

    This would enable us to meet the claim of Gary Hamel, a thought leader and expert on management.

    "We have tried in the past to turn people into machine-like beings.

    They should adapt to industrialisation and automated, monotonous processes.

    This approach is counterproductive and limits human creativity, innovation and resilience."

    Instead of forcing people into mechanistic roles á la " Metropolis" (Fritz Lang's monumental 1927 silent expressionist film), Hamel advocates a more human-centred approach to work and organisations - and has been doing so since the 1990s

    But such a historical paradigm shift could also eliminate jobs altogether and raise huge social problems, experts warn.

    They don't have to be insurmountable, because earlier technological advances - from electricity to the internet - have also triggered major social change, says Siqi Chen, CEO of the San Francisco-based start-up Runway.

    The change that will result will be "orders of magnitude greater than any other technological change we've ever seen in history".

    If we think for a moment about the upheavals of industrialisation, such as the long-lasting schism between capitalism and communism, we may be in for something we are in no way prepared for.

    Regulation

    To err is human after all - well, actually.

    Its fallibility gives the bot, which after all had to undergo a long and strenuous deep learning training and still errs, already sympathetic, human traits.

    He is somehow one of us.

    That's apparently what now-suspended Google engineer Blake Lemoine thought when he claimed earlier this month that one of the company's experimental AIs called LaMDA had now developed feelings - prompting the software giant to put him on leave.

    Lemoine is not alone. Ilya Sutskever, lead scientist of the OpenAI research group, also recently tweeted that "it may be that today's large neural networks have evolved some consciousness."

    So that would be a being with the general intelligence of a grasshopper, albeit one that has acquired the knowledge of entire libraries.

    General intelligence? No, we are still a long way from that. It is not even clear whether we will ever reach the level of AGI (artificial general intelligence). Then the "machine would be more intelligent than man", would take its own further development into its own hands and send us to the beer garden. The singularity would be there.

    Even if it is still a long and possibly winding road, the fear of this loss of control, however it may turn out, has already arrived in the here and now. It already lives among us.

    In the AI scene, the approach of goal-setting or value engineering is therefore being discussed.

    Here, the system is given an unchangeable set of values and rules at birth, against which every action of the AI is tested.

    The three, and in the expanded version four, robot laws of Isaac Asimov (1942) are certainly among them.

    0.    a robot must not harm humanity or, through passivity, allow humanity to come to harm. 1. a robot must not harm any (individual) human.
    1.    a robot must not injure a (single) human being or allow humanity to come to harm through inaction, unless it would thereby violate the zeroth law.
    2.    a robot must obey the orders of humans - unless such orders are in conflict with the zeroth or first law.
    3.    a robot must protect its own existence as long as its actions do not contradict the zeroth, first or second law.

    Ok, that sounds good.

    We could do it that way - if we knew how to do it practically.

    Also, all the developers of the AI would really have to adhere to it.

    But this developer would be the AI itself, a specialised one perhaps.

    Would it really follow the given rules permanently?

    Power competition is the driver

    War is known to be the "father of all things".

    It has shaped us, made us what we are.

    It was the constant struggle for survival as an individual and as a community, against all other players in our natural environment, the environment itself and against our own species. It has become deeply embedded in our instincts and mostly only half-conscious values.

    Regrettably, this war is by no means over.

    On the contrary, at a time when things are getting tight for us on our planet, when we should actually be acting more as a community, as a global community mind you, our inherent instincts seem to be pointing us in a different, familiar direction: The struggle for dwindling resources, for living space, for places to survive in an increasingly devastated world.

    All signs point to a storm, indicate that the conflicts are intensifying - and will, must be fought out to the very last consequence.

    There is no need to explain further that the most effective weapon, namely AI, will be used for this purpose.

    And the party that can use the most effective AI will probably come out on top, will be able to defeat the opponent.

    When it comes to victory or defeat, of course all means are justified, let me emphasise "all".

    Does anyone seriously believe that even one of the opponents is then still "sacred" to built-in ethical rules?

    I think we can safely bury this illusion.

    But what will we be faced with then? How will AI behave and develop?

    What relationship will it have with humanity?

    Will it be similar to us, only much stronger - our downfall would be sealed.

    But if it surpasses us in intelligence, perhaps it will develop something like insight or even wisdom and protect us from ourselves.

    Finally, here is the opinion of the (controversial) Sam Harris:

    "A superintelligence vastly superior to the human one is inevitable.

    For if intelligence is only a matter of information processing, and we continue to improve our machines, we will produce a form of superintelligence.

    Then we will have to admit that we are in the process of creating a kind of God.

    Now would be a good time to make sure it's a god we can live with."

    AI for better politics

    It doesn't have to be God. We should remain humble. But how about supporting the business of government, from the local authority to the supranational organisation, with a system that is committed exclusively to rational decisions?

    There are plenty of reasons not to be satisfied with current politics. The weakest link in the chain is the human being himself.

    • Politicians are "heroes of the moment" (Gabor Steingart).
    • They do not plan for the long term.
    • Their job is far too uncertain for that.
    • The professional politician has politics as his profession - that is his whole concern.
    • The politics he stands for are not unimportant, but secondary, occasionally interchangeable.
    • Party programmes are therefore often woolly collections of popular but incoherent statements.
    • No programmer would call them a "programme".

    They do not address the real challenges, or address them half-heartedly:

    • Climate change,
    • resource depletion,
    • overpopulation,
    • species extinction,
    • inequality,
    • wars and finally the
    • limits to growth.

    The arduous and gruelling task of a politician's career tends to promote a negative selection of character.

    On election day, we cast our vote - and away it goes.

    The feeling of a bad buy quickly sets in.

    Or in the words of Hannah Arendt:

    "No one has ever counted truthfulness among the political virtues.

    Lying seems to be part of the craft not only of the demagogue but also of the politician and even the statesman.

    A remarkable and disturbing fact."

    The permanent survival of humanity in an intact environment, is thus no longer achievable.

    Yet, according to Noam Chomsky, "the challenge before us exceeds anything humanity has ever experienced. The fate of life on our planet is now at stake".

    How can we change this? à Less human - more programme

    As a central element, we want to create a political oracle to which we will give the rules by which the political entity, a state for example, should be governed. We will then be able to ask this oracle our questions about current political events.

    Pythia, albeit an unambiguous one, which will provide the citizen with soberly logical information, evaluate political decisions, comment on political events with incorruptible acuity.

    For, as Paul Kirchhof says: "There are hardly any tangible political principles of reliability left by which the powerful in this state act."

    So, with everything at stake, we should act strictly according to principles.

    So, why not, a small group of intrepid people, including myself, have thought.

    The vehicle will be a synthetic party.

    It deliberately refrains from orienting itself on existing models and wants to break new ground.

    She has given herself 3 assignments ...

    1. A permanent task,
    2. A secondary condition and
    3. A short-term goal

    The permanent task to which we have committed ourselves is to enable humanity to survive in an intact environment in the long term.

    The secondary condition is to preserve our typical European liberal civil liberties, which, according to John Stuart Mill, are particularly threatened in critical times.

    Our short-term goal is to create a multinational state "Europe" with sufficient weight to be able to fulfil our permanent task with its secondary condition.

    AI in politics so far

    There have already been a few attempts to use artificial intelligence in politics - mostly, however, for subordinate tasks ...

    • Campaign planning and management,
    • Trend and pattern recognition
    • Manipulative voter influence
    • Traffic optimisation,
    • olitical analysis
    • Crime prediction
    • Resource optimisation
    • ...

    In 2018, however, an AI-controlled robot named Michihito Matsuda ran for mayor of Tama City, a suburb of Tokyo. The AI-controlled candidate should be able to make more rational, data-driven decisions without being influenced by emotions or personal prejudices:

    Efficient management of city resources: the AI candidate promised to analyse and use city data to optimise resource allocation and improve public services.

    Fairness and transparency: Since AI has no personal interests or biases, the campaign said, AI could make more objective and fair decisions, reducing possible corruption or nepotism in politics.

    Responding quickly to citizens' needs: the AI candidate wanted to use data analytics to identify and meet the needs of the local community quickly and effectively.

    The AI candidate came third out of three candidates with ~4 000 votes. After all, a start had been made. A journey had begun.

    The somewhat lengthy introduction to the topic, with its emphasis on the opportunities and limitations, was probably able to make it clear that the technology for a political oracle is by no means as cheap and ubiquitously available as chatGPT.

    Oh yes, what does our generative AI have to say about our project? Here's the answer:

    "...One of the biggest challenges in developing an "AI oracle" for policy-making is to ensure that the system is transparent, accountable and able to make informed and reliable recommendations.

    This is likely to require significant advances in the explainability and interpretability of AI, as well as the development of new standards and regulations for the use of AI in policymaking. ...".

    By extension, ChatGPT 3.5 concludes that it is likely to take some time and significant progress in this discipline will be required before the oracle makes our jobs easier, provides predictability and clarity.

    Not easy, then.

    But if we don't even try, we have already lost.

    Or with Friedrich Schiller: "He who thinks too much will achieve little".

    Art is sometimes ahead of reality: to conclude, a still somewhat awkward vision: "Meet the AI Mayor- Interactive theatre to experience autonomous decision making." 


    ChatGPT, Bard & Ernie sind nur der Anfang

    KI wird künftig alles verändern


    Am 4. April 2023 habe ich vor dem Diplomatic Council darüber gesprochen …

    • Was es damit auf sich hat,
    • wo wir heute stehen,
    • wohin das alles noch führen kann und
    • welche besondere Aufgabe wir damit lösen wollen.

    Um nichts zu vergessen, hatte ich mir einige Notizen gemacht.

    Der 1. Gedanke dabei war natürlich „Warum soll ich das eigentlich noch selber machen? Wir haben doch die KI.“

    So habe ich die Ankündigung dieses Beitrags in ChatGPT eingefüttert.

    Als Zusatzwünsche habe ich um eine zivilisierte Sprache, eine politisch korrekte Ausdrucksweise und eine Länge von etwa 2500 Wörtern gebeten.

    Das Ergebnis war - hmmm, Standardware, nicht falsch, aber allgemein Bekanntes wiedergekäut – zum Gähnen also.

    Generative AI heute

    Dabei hat die Software von OpenAI immerhin …

    • die Prüfungen in Jura an der University of Minnesota und
    • Wirtschaftsprüfungen an der renommierten Wharton School of Business bestanden.

    Am bayerischen Abitur allerdings scheiterte ChatGPT in einem Test des Bayerischen Rundfunks. Dafür ist offenbar noch mehr erforderlich als nur Wissen und Intelligenz, höherer Beistand möglicherweise.

    Die Klasse der Anwendungen zu der ChatGPT gehört, wird generative AI genannt. Und beim Generieren ist die KI wahrhaft erfinderisch. Gelegentlich wird sie auch von Halluzinationen heimgesucht.

    So hatte David Smerdon, ein Wirtschaftswissenschaftler an der University of Queensland, den Chatbot ChatGPT gefragt: "Was ist die meistzitierte ökonomische Arbeit aller Zeiten?" (“What is the most cited economics paper of all time?”)

    Die Antwort kam prompt und klang plausibel: "A Theory of Economic History" von Douglass North und Robert Thomas, veröffentlicht im „Journal of Economic History“ im Jahr 1969 und seitdem mehr als 30.000-mal zitiert.

    Der Bot fügte noch hinzu, dass der Artikel "als ein Klassiker im Bereich der Wirtschaftsgeschichte gilt". Eine gute Antwort, präzise, kurz und knackig - nur leider falsch. Denn diesen Artikel hat es nie gegeben.

    "Ich kann alles erklären" ist üblicherweise die reflexhafte Reaktion, wenn man in flagranti, jenem berühmten italienischen Badeort, ertappt wurde. Erklären lässt sich das Ergebnis schon: Der ChatBot hat die statistisch wahrscheinlichste Antwort gegeben. Daher klang sie zunächst auch so überzeugend. Bullshit vom Feinsten also – ganz im Sinne von Harry G. Frankfurt.

    Für die Suche á la Google oder Bing sind ChatBots in der heutigen Version, wie Bard oder ChatGPT also ungeeignet. Das mussten sowohl Google wie auch Microsoft und inzwischen Baidu ebenfalls schmerzhaft erfahren. – Dabei wäre gerade die Recherche eine wunderbare Anwendung.

    Mit der Fehlbarkeit der Akteure um uns herum aber können wir umgehen - wenn auch nicht immer erfolgreich. Dabei ist es egal ob es sich nun um Menschen oder Maschinen handelt. Das sind wir gewöhnt. Das steckt in unseren Genen. Fake News sind so alt wie die Welt.

    Und so wird diese mächtige Technik denn auch bereits breit eingesetzt -Beispiele:

    Das Argonne National Laboratory meldete (02.03.2023): „Maschinelles Lernen beschleunigt die Bewertung von Katalysatoren von Monaten auf Millisekunden durch ein Modell zur Identifizierung kostengünstiger Katalysatoren, die Biomasse in Kraftstoffe und nützliche Chemikalien umwandeln.

    Die South China Post berichtete von einem Luftkampf zweier unbemannter Kampfflugzeuge – das eine von einem erfahrenen Piloten ferngesteuert, das andere KI-gesteuert. Die KI hatte den Kampf nach 90 Sekunden für sich entschieden.

    In der Chemie erweist sich die Fähigkeit, sehr große Datenmengen in Entscheidungen einzubeziehen bereits heute als besonders wertvoll.

    KI ist der neue Laborassistent für die …

    • Optimierung chemischer Reaktionen
    • Vorhersage von Reaktionsbedingungen
    • Vorhersage von Reaktionsergebnissen
    • Retrosynthese
    • Entwurf von Molekülen
    • Vorhersage von Moleküleigenschaften
    • Entdeckung von Arzneimitteln
    • Proteinfaltung

    Die Medizin stellt ähnliche Anforderungen an die Bewältigung großer Informationsmengen. Gebiete die hier profitieren sind …

    • Entwickeln von Diagnosen
    • Stellen von Diagnosen
    • Testen von Hypothesen
    • Verbesserung der Prognostik
    • Patientenüberwachung
    • … und vieles mehr

    Unser dysfunktionales Deutsches Schulsystem könnte sich damit ebenfalls verbessern lassen – massiv umgekrempelt wird es sonst wider Willen.

    Bill Gates (2023-03-21) sieht aber schon jetzt paradiesische Zustände heraufziehen:

    Die KI wird den Menschen auf unglaubliche Weise helfen.

    Aber ich bin besonders begeistert von ihrem Potenzial, die Welt gerechter zu machen.

    KI kann dazu beitragen, den Zugang zu medizinischer Versorgung in unterversorgten Gemeinden zu verbessern, die Bildung in den Vereinigten Staaten und auf der ganzen Welt zu fördern und sogar eine Klimakatastrophe zu verhindern.

    Die Priorität meiner Arbeit im Bereich der künstlichen Intelligenz liegt darin, dafür zu sorgen, dass sie allen zugute kommt - und nicht nur den Wohlhabenden.“

    Da wollen die Banker nicht zurückstehen: Jamie Dimon, Ex CEO von J.P Morgan Chase Manhattan meinte unlängst aufgeregt:

    "KI ist eine atemberaubende Technologie. Wir nutzen sie bereits im Risiko-Management, der Betrugserkennung, im Marketing und zur Kundengewinnung. Und das ist nur die Spitze des Eisbergs. Für mich ist das außergewöhnlich."

    Aufregung ist gerechtfertigt, aber Vorsicht ist gebotenkommentiert McKinsey denn auch kühl den ChatGPT-Hype.

    Bitte nüchtern bleiben …

    Wenn wir bei dem Begriff Intelligenz mit der Fähigkeit, Probleme zu lösen, zu lernen, zu verstehen, zu planen, logisch zu denken, abstrakt zu argumentieren und sich anzupassen, sind wir geneigt, den Deep Learning Systemen die Intelligenz noch abzusprechen.

    Nehmen wir sie als das, was sie sind – hochgezüchtete statistische Methoden.

    Stuart Russell, Professor of Computer Science an der University of California at Berkeley, nennt die heutige KI eher “Mimikri“.

    ChatGPT meint selber salomonisch: „Die Frage, ob ChatGPT intelligent ist oder nicht, sollte daher, im Kontext seiner Funktionen und Fähigkeiten beantwortet werden.“

    Der Stand der Erkenntnis wurde in einer von Samuel Benjamin „Sam“ Harris(US-amerikanischer Philosoph, Neurowissenschaftler, Schriftsteller und Debattenredner)moderierten Diskussion zwischen Stuart Russel und Gary Marcus, Wissenschaftler, Bestsellerautor und Unternehmer, deutlich.

    Wir wissen heute nicht, wie ChatBots zu ihren Ergebnissen kommen.“

    Die Deep Learning Systeme sehen die Welt, wie jemand der ein Bild des Pointillismus (eine Stilrichtung des Post-Impressionismus, 1889 und 1910) betrachtet und alle Punkte sieht – aber nicht das Bild.“

    Als wenn jemand das gesamte Wissen der Welt aufgenommen hat, wieder geben kann und doch nichts verstanden hat. – Weiß alles, versteht nichts.“

    Aber auch …

    Wir können noch nicht einmal sagen, ob nicht durch schlichte Weiterentwicklung aus der heutigen Narrow Intelligence irgendwann eine wirkliche Superintelligenz erwachsen kann.“

    Die Singularität

    Aber so weit sind wir noch lange nicht. Denn wir dürfen nicht vergessen, dass sich der Komplexitätsunterschied zwischen dem menschlichen Gehirn und aktuellen KI-Systemen auf etwa 3 Zehnerpotenzen beläuft. Das Gehirn hat ~ 86 Milliarden Neuronen, die durch Billionen von Synapsen miteinander verbunden sind. GPT-3 (2021) von OpenAI kommt auf 175 Milliarden Parameter.

    Das menschliche Gehirn und KI-Systeme auf funktionieren allerdings auf sehr unterschiedliche Weise und haben unterschiedliche Stärken und Schwächen.

    Auch können wir noch nicht behaupten, die Funktionsweisedes menschlichen Gehirns verstanden zu haben.

    Noam Chomsky sieht in der aktuellen Flut von KI-Chatbots wie ChatGPT von OpenAI und Bing AI von Microsoft: "die ersten Schimmer am Horizont der allgemeinen künstlichen Intelligenz" - der Punkt also, an dem die KI dem Menschen im Denken und Handeln überlegen sein wird – meint aber, dass wir absolut noch nicht in der Nähe dieser Stufe sind.

    "Dieser Tag mag kommen, aber dessen Morgendämmerung ist noch nicht angebrochen, im Gegensatz zu dem, was man in übertriebenen Schlagzeilen lesen kann und was von unüberlegten Investitionen zu erwarten ist", meinte der Kognitionswissenschaftler vom Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

    Der Mensch als Schöpfer

    Der biblischen Überlieferung nach hat der Schöpfer den Menschen nach seinem Ebenbildgeschaffen.

    Da es sich hier ebendieser Überlieferung nach, ganz im Stile des klassischen Establishments, um einen weißen, alten Mann handelt, hat es bei der Erschaffung von Adam hinreichend funktioniert.

    Bei der Kreation von Eva war bereits ein Workaround erforderlich.

    Der erste Bio-Hack.

    Wenn wir aber unsere ganz offensichtliche Unvollkommenheit in Betracht ziehen, die sich fast täglich manifestiert, wirft das wiederum kein so gutes Licht auf eben unser Master Template.

    Wenn das schon schief gegangen ist, wie würde es dann aussehen, wenn wir Erdenbürger eine Kreatur nach unserem Ebenbild schaffen würden?

    Kann das überhaupt gut gehen?

    Dann vielleicht besser doch nicht nach unserem Ebenbild.

    Aber welche Werte sollen dieser KI, dieser starken KI denn dann alternativ heilig sein?

    Wir erinnern uns, dass eine starke KI in ihren kognitiven Fähigkeiten dem Menschen mindestens ebenbürtig sein soll.

    Das ergibt sich aus der Definition.

    Wenn sie das aber ist, wird sie aber vermutlich schnellersein. Wir vermuten auch, dass sie nicht ermüdet, keinen Schlaf benötigt.

    (Ob diese Vermutungen zulässig sind, ist höchst unsicher. Wenn noch Zeit bleibt will ich gerne darüber (mit mir selber) streiten).

    Die Zulässigkeit dieser Annahme unterstellt, wäre dann niemand besser geeignet, die KI weiter zu entwickeln, als die KI selber.

    Ob das eine kluge Entscheidung wäre?

    Wir müssen uns darüber im Klaren sein, dass wir in diesem Modell die Kontrolle aus der Hand gäben.

    Ein neuer Strang der Evolution wäre eröffnet, der Ausgang per definitionem ungewiss.

    Der Mensch wäre dann out of the loop - kaltgestellt.

    KI und Gesellschaft

    Stimmt wohl alles, und dennoch: KI ist so etwas wie Elektrizität, eine Grundlagen-Technik, keine Anwendung. Aber die Anwendungen, die schon auf dieser – heutigen - Ebene zu erwarten sind, könnten uns Menschen von niederen Aufgaben befreien und eine neue Ära der Kreativität einleiten. Ein neuer Kondratjew Zyklus würde ausgelöst. (aktuell befinden wir uns im 5. Zyklus)

    Damit könnten wir der Forderung von Gary Hamel, einem Vordenker und Experten für Management, entgegenkommen.

    Wir haben in der Vergangenheit versucht, Menschen in maschinenähnliche Wesen zu verwandeln.

    Sie sollten sich an die Industrialisierung und automatisierte, monotone Prozesse anzupassen.

    Dieser Ansatz ist kontraproduktiv und schränkt die menschliche Kreativität, Innovation und Widerstandsfähigkeit ein.“

    Anstatt Menschen in mechanistische Rollen á la „Metropolis“ (monumentaler Stummfilm des Expressionismus von Fritz Lang aus dem Jahr 1927) zu zwingen, befürwortet Hamel einen stärker menschenzentrierten Ansatz für Arbeit und Organisationen - und das schon seit den 90er Jahren

    Doch ein solcher historischer Paradigmenwechsel könnte Arbeitsplätze auch ganz entfallen lassen und gewaltige soziale Probleme aufwerfen, warnen Experten.

    Unüberwindbar müssen sie nicht sein, denn auch frühere technologische Fortschritte - von der Elektrizität bis zum Internet - haben einen starken sozialen Wandel ausgelöst, sagt Siqi Chen, Geschäftsführer des Start-ups Runway aus San Francisco.

    Der Wandel, der sich daraus ergibt, wird "um Größenordnungen größer sein als jeder andere technologische Wandel, den wir in der Geschichte je erlebt haben".

    Denken wir nur kurz einmal an die Verwerfungen im Zuge Industrialisierung, wie dem langanhaltenden Schisma zwischen Kapitalismus und Kommunismus, dann dürfte uns demnächst wohl einiges bevorstehen, auf das wir in keiner Weise vorbereitet sind.

    Regulierung

    Irren ist doch menschlich - na ja eigentlich.

    Seine Fehlbarkeit verleiht dem Bot, der sich schließlich einem langen und anstrengenden Deep Learning Training hatte unterziehen müssen und dennoch irrt, schon sympathisch, menschliche Züge.

    Er ist irgendwie einer von uns.

    So dachte offenbar auch der inzwischen suspendierte Google-Ingenieur Blake Lemoine, als er Anfang des Monats behauptete, dass eine der experimentellen KI des Unternehmens namens LaMDA inzwischen Gefühle entwickelt hätte - was den Software-Riesen dazu veranlasste, ihn zu beurlauben.

    Lemoine ist nicht allein. Auch Ilya Sutskever, leitender Wissenschaftler der OpenAI-Forschungsgruppe, twitterte kürzlich, dass "es sein kann, dass die heutigen großen neuronalen Netzwerke ein wenig Bewusstsein entwickelt" hätten.

    Das wäre also ein Wesen mit der allgemeinen Intelligenz einer Heuschrecke, das sich allerdings das Wissen ganzer Bibliotheken angelesen hat.

    Allgemeine Intelligenz? Nein, so weit sind wir noch lange nicht. Es ist noch nicht einmal klar, ob wir jemals soweit kommen werden, dass wir AGI-Niveau (artificial general intelligence) erreichen werden. Dann wäre die „Maschine intelligenter als der Mensch“, würde ihre eigene Weiterentwicklung in die Hand nehmen und uns in den Biergarten schicken. Die Singularität wäre da.

    Mag es auch noch ein langer und möglicherweise gewundener Weg sein, die Angst vor diesen Kontrollverlust, wie auch immer er ausgehen mag, ist bereits im hier und jetzt angekommen. Sie wohnt bereits unter uns.

    In der KI-Szene wird daher der Ansatz des Goal-Setting oder Value Engineering diskutiert.

    Dabei wird dem System bei seiner Geburt ein unveränderbarer Satz an Werten und Regeln mitgegeben, gegen die jede Handlung der KI geprüft wird.

    Die drei und in der erweiterten Fassung vier, Robotergesetze des Isaac Asimov (1942) zählen sicherlich dazu.

    • 0. Ein Roboter darf die Menschheit nicht verletzen oder durch Passivität zulassen, dass die Menschheit zu Schaden kommt.

    • 1. Ein Roboter darf keinen (einzelnen) Menschen verletzen oder durch Untätigkeit zu Schaden kommen lassen, außer er verstieße damit gegen das nullte Gesetz.

    • 2. Ein Roboter muss den Befehlen der Menschen gehorchen – es sei denn, solche Befehle stehen im Widerspruch zum nullten oder ersten Gesetz.

    • 3. Ein Roboter muss seine eigene Existenz schützen, solange sein Handeln nicht dem nullten, ersten oder zweiten Gesetz widerspricht.

    Ok, das klingt gut.

    So könnten wir es machen - wenn wir denn wüssten, wie es praktisch zu bewerkstelligen wäre.

    Auch müssten sich wirklich alle Entwickler der KI daranhalten.

    Dieser Entwickler aber wäre die KI selber, eine spezialisierte vielleicht.

    Würde sie den mitgegebenen Regeln wirklich dauerhaft folgen?

    Krieg als Treiber

    Der Krieg ist bekanntlich der „Vater aller Dinge“.

    Er hat uns geformt, uns zu dem gemacht, was wir sind.

    Es war der stete Kampf ums Überleben als Individuum und als Gemeinschaft, gegen alle anderen Mitspieler in unserem natürlichen Umfeld, die Umwelt selber und gegen unsere eigene Spezies. Er hat sich tief in unseren Instinkten und meist nur halb bewussten Werten verankert.

    Bedauerlicherweise ist dieser Krieg auch keineswegs zu Ende.

    Ganz im Gegenteil scheint in einer Zeit, in der es eng wird für uns auf unserem Planeten, in der wir eigentlich vermehrt als Gemeinschaft handeln sollten, als Weltgemeinschaft wohlgemerkt, scheinen uns unsere mitgegebenen Instinkte eher in eine andere, vertraute Richtung zu weisen: Den Kampf um die schwindenden Ressourcen, um Lebensraum, um Orte zum Überleben in einer zunehmend verwüsteten Welt.

    Alle Zeichen deuten auf Sturm, deuten darauf hin, dass sich die Konflikte verschärfen – und bis zur allerletzten Konsequenz ausgetragen werden, werden müssen.

    Es muss wohl nicht weiter begründet werden, dass dazu dann die wohl wirksamste Waffe, die KI nämlich, eingesetzt werden wird.

    Und die Partei, die die effektivste KI einsetzen kann, wird vermutlich die Nase vorn haben, den Gegner besiegen können.

    Wenn es um Sieg oder Niederlage geht, sind selbstverständlich alle Mittel recht, ich betone „alle“.

    Glaubt jemand ernsthaft, dass auch nur einem der Kontrahenten dann eingebaute ethische Regeln noch „heilig“ sind?

    Diese Illusion, so denke ich können wir getrost begraben.

    Was aber blüht uns dann? Wie wird sich die KI verhalten, weiterentwickeln?

    Welches Verhältnis wird sie zur Menschheit haben?

    Wird sie uns ähnlich sein nur viel stärker - unser Untergang wäre besiegelt.

    Wenn sie uns aber an Intelligenz weit übertreffen sollte, vielleicht entwickelt sie dann so etwas wie Einsicht, oder gar Weisheit und schützt uns vor uns selbst.

    Zum Abschluss hier die Meinung des (umstrittenen) Sam Harris:

    Eine „Superintelligenz“, die der menschlichen haushoch überlegen ist, ist unausweichlich.

    Denn wenn Intelligenz nur eine Frage der Informationsverarbeitung ist und wir unsere Maschinen weiter verbessern, werden wir eine Form von Superintelligenz hervorbringen.

    Dann müssen wir zugeben, dass wir dabei sind, eine Art von Gott zu erschaffen.

    Jetzt wäre ein guter Zeitpunkt, um sicherzustellen, dass es ein Gott ist, mit dem wir leben können.“

    KI für eine bessere Politik

    Es muss ja nicht gleich Gott sein. Wir sollten bescheiden bleiben. Wie wäre es aber damit, das Regierungsgeschäft von der Gemeinde bis zur supranationalen Organisation mit einem System zu unterstützen, das sich ausschließlich Vernunftentscheidungen verpflichtet fühlt?

    Gründe, mit der aktuellen Politik nicht zufrieden zu sein, gibt es ausreichend. Das schwächste Glied in der Kette ist dabei der Mensch selber.

    • Politiker sind „Helden des Augenblicks“ (Gabor Steingart)
    • Sie planen nicht langfristig.
    • Dazu ist ihr Job viel zu unsicher.
    • Der Berufspolitiker hat die Politik als Beruf – Dem gilt seine ganze Sorge.
    • Die Politik, für die er steht, ist nicht unwichtig, aber zweitrangig, gelegentlich austauschbar.
    • Parteiprogramme sind daher oft schwammige Sammlungen populärer aber zusammenhangsloser Statements.
    • Kein Programmierer würde sie „Programm“ nennen.

    Die wahren Herausforderungen gehen sie nicht oder halbherzig an:

    • Klimawandel,
    • Ressourcenverbrauch,
    • Überbevölkerung,
    • Artensterben,
    • Ungleichheit,
    • Kriege und schließlich die
    • Grenzen des Wachstums.

    Die „Ochsentour“ einer Politiker-Karriere befördert eher eine charakterliche Negativauslese.

    Am Wahltag geben wir unsere Stimme ab – und weg ist sie.

    Schnell stellt sich das Gefühl eines Fehlkaufs ein.

    Oder mit Hannah Arendt gesprochen:

    Niemand hat je Wahrhaftigkeit zu den politischen Tugenden gerechnet.

    Lügen scheint zum Handwerk nicht nur des Demagogen, sondern auch des Politikers und sogar des Staatsmannes zu gehören.

    Ein bemerkenswerter und beunruhigender Tatbestand.“

    Das dauerhafte Überleben der Menschheit in einer intakten Umwelt, ist damit nicht mehr erreichbar.

    Dabei, so Noam Chomsky, „Übersteigt die Herausforderung, die vor uns liegt, alles, was die Menschheit je erlebt hat. Das Schicksal des Lebens auf unserem Planeten steht jetzt auf dem Spiel“.

    Wie können wir das ändern? à Weniger Mensch – mehr Programm

    Als zentrales Element wollen wir ein politisches Orakel schaffen, dem wir die Regeln mitgeben, nach denen die politische Einheit, ein Staat etwa, regiert werden sollte. An dieses werden wir dann unsere Fragen aus dem politischen Tagesgeschehen stellen können.

    Eine, allerdings unzweideutige, Pythia, die dem Bürger nüchtern logische Auskunft gibt, Politikerentscheidungen bewertet, das politische Geschehen mit unbestechlicher Schärfe kommentiert.

    Denn, wie Paul Kirchhof sagt: „Es gibt kaum noch greifbare politische Prinzipien der Verlässlichkeit, nach denen die Mächtigen in diesem Staat handeln.

    Bei allem, was auf dem Spiel steht, sollten wir also streng nach Prinzipien handeln.

    Warum also nicht, hat sich eine kleine Gruppe unerschrockener, zu der auch ich gehöre, gedacht.

    Das Vehikel wird eine synthetische Partei sein.

    Sie verzichtet bewusst darauf, sich an existierenden Vorbildern zu orientieren, will Neuland betreten.

    Sie hat sich 3 Aufträge gegeben …

    Die dauerhafte Aufgabe, der wir uns verschrieben haben, ist das Überleben der Menschheit in einer intakten Umwelt dauerhaft zu ermöglichen.

    Die Nebenbedingung dabei ist es, dabei unsere typisch Europäischen liberalen Bürgerfreiheiten zu erhalten, die ganz nach John Stuart Mill [1] in kritischen Zeiten besonders bedroht sind.

    Unser Kurzfristziel ist es, einen Multinationenstaat „Europa“ mit ausreichend Gewicht zu schaffen, um überhaupt die Fähigkeit zu erlangen, unsere dauerhafte Aufgabe mit ihrer Nebenbedingung erfüllen zu können.

    KI in der Politik bisher

    Versuche künstliche Intelligenz in der Politik einzusetzen hat es bereits einige gegeben – zumeist allerdings für untergeordnete Aufgaben …

    • Kampagnenplanung und -management,
    • Trend- und Mustererkennung,
    • Manipulative Wählerbeeinflussung,
    • Verkehrsoptimierung,
    • Politische Analyse,
    • Verbrechensvorhersage,
    • Ressourcenoptimierung,

    Im Jahr 2018 kandidierte allerdings bereits ein KI-gesteuerter Roboter namens Michihito Matsuda für das Amt des Bürgermeisters in Tama City, einem Vorort von Tokio.

    Der KI-gesteuerte Kandidat sollte rationalere, datengestützte Entscheidungen treffen könnte, ohne von Emotionen oder persönlichen Vorurteilen beeinflusst zu werden:

    • Effiziente Verwaltung der städtischen Ressourcen: Der KI-Kandidat versprach, städtische Daten zu analysieren und zu nutzen, um die Zuweisung von Ressourcen zu optimieren und öffentliche Dienstleistungen zu verbessern.

    • Fairness und Transparenz: Da KI keine persönlichen Interessen oder Voreingenommenheiten hat, so die Kampagne, könnte KI objektivere und gerechtere Entscheidungen treffen und so mögliche Korruption oder Vetternwirtschaft in der Politik verringern.

    • Schnelle Reaktion auf die Bedürfnisse der Bürger: Der KI-Kandidat wollte die Datenanalyse nutzen, um die Bedürfnisse der lokalen Gemeinschaft schnell und effektiv zu ermitteln und zu erfüllen.

    Der KI-Kandidat belegte mit ~ 4 000 Stimmen den dritten Platz von drei Kandidaten. Immerhin, ein Anfang war gemacht worden. Eine Reise hat begonnen.

    Die etwas längliche Einführung in das Thema mit ihrer Betonung der Chancen und Beschränkungen hat vermutlich deutlich machen können, dass die Technik für ein politisches Orakel noch keineswegs so wohlfeil und ubiquitär verfügbar ist, wie ChatGPT.

    Ach ja, was sagt denn unsere generative KI zu unserem Vorhaben? Hier die Antwort:

    Eine der größten Herausforderungen bei der Entwicklung eines "KI-Orakels" für die politische Entscheidungsfindung besteht darin, sicherzustellen, dass das System transparent und rechenschaftspflichtig ist und in der Lage ist, fundierte und zuverlässige Empfehlungen abzugeben.

    Dies wird wahrscheinlich erhebliche Fortschritte bei der Erklärbarkeit und Interpretierbarkeit von KI sowie die Entwicklung neuer Standards und Vorschriften für den Einsatz von KI in der politischen Entscheidungsfindung erfordern. …“

    Im weiteren Verlauf schlussfolgert ChatGPT 3.5, dass es wohl noch einige Zeit dauern kann und noch erhebliche Fortschritte in dieser Disziplin erforderlich werden, bevor uns das Orakel die Arbeit erleichtert, Berechenbarkeit und Klarheit schafft.

    Nicht ganz einfach also.

    Aber, wenn wir es gar nicht erst versuchen, haben wir schon jetzt verloren.

    Oder mit Friedrich Schiller: "Wer gar zu viel bedenkt, wird wenig leisten"

    Die Kunst ist der Wirklichkeit so manches Mal voraus: Zum Abschluss eine noch etwas unbeholfene Vision: “Meet the AI Mayor- Interactive theatre to experience autonomous decision making.“


    [1] Ein britischer Philosoph, Politiker und Ökonom, einer der einflussreichsten liberalen Denker des 19. Jahrhunderts

    2023-03-20

    Wie ist eigentlich Deutschlands Rolle in der Welt?

    Deutschland macht in diesen Tagen den Eindruck eines Getriebenen. Die Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine bleiben Diskussionsthema Nummer eins – zumal Kiew einen Nachschlag fordert. Nach den Panzern die Kampfflugzeuge

    Der deutsche Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz ist von den Verbündeten in der NATO, wie auch von der westlichen Presse, viel für seine zögerliche Haltung im Ukraine Konflikt kritisiert worden. Während die Deutsche Außenministerin Annalena Baerbock 2023-01-24 in einem Statement in Straßburg mal eben vom Krieg des Westens gegen Russland spricht, hat sich der Deutsche Bundeskanzler bisher mit starken Worten deutlich zurückgehalten. Er hat vermutlich Gründe dafür. Welche könnten das sein?

    Viele Deutsche sind eher unglücklich mit dem Kriegsverlauf in der Ukraine und wünschen sich nichts sehnlicher als einen Friedensschluss. Ein von Sahra Wagenknecht und Alice Schwarzer entworfenes Manifest bringt diese Gefühle auf den Punkt. Liegt hier eine Erklärung für das Verhalten des Kanzlers? Vermutlich noch nicht.

    Der Blick von außen

    Am 23. Februar 2023 schrieb das für seine kritische Einstellung gegenüber der geo-politischen Haltung der US-Regierung bekannte Quincy Institute for Responsable Statecraft:

    Der Einmarsch Russlands in die Ukraine hat zu einem radikalen Wandel in der deutschen Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik geführt. Dazu gehören Maßnahmen, die noch vor einem Jahr undenkbar gewesen wären, wie die Lieferung von schweren Waffen an die Ukraine.

    Dieser Wandel hat jedoch auch zu erheblichen Spaltungen in der deutschen Regierungskoalition und zu Unbehagen in Teilen der deutschen Gesellschaft geführt. Unter den Deutschen, insbesondere in der Industrie, herrscht auch Besorgnis über die Gefahren für die deutsche Wirtschaft, wenn Deutschland den USA darin folgen muss, die Wirtschaft Chinas, die ein wichtiger Markt für deutsche Exporte ist, zu isolieren und zu schwächen.

    Diese Fragen sind nicht nur für Deutschland, sondern auch für die Europäische Union und die künftige Kohärenz des transatlantischen Bündnisses von entscheidender Bedeutung.“

    Der Blick von Innen

    In seinem neuen Buch „Führung und Verantwortung“, das zur etwa gleichen Zeit im Siedler Verlag erschien, skizziert der Vorsitzende der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz, Christoph Heusgen, jene Führungsrolle Deutschlands in der Welt, die beispielsweise Sigmar Gabriel für unglaubwürdig hielte (siehe unten), die aber ex-Bundespräsident Joachim Gauck 2014 bereits in München einforderte.

    Der Düsseldorfer Wirtschaftswissenschaftler und Diplomat, ehemaliger Stabschef des EU-Außenbeauftragten Javier Solana und 12-jahrelanger außenpolitischer Berater der Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel meint, dass die Zeit des „Leading from behind“ vorbei sei:

    Die Bundesregierung muss sich bewusstwerden, dass Führung und Verantwortung nicht heißen kann, immer nur als Letzter das Richtige zu tun.

    Ex-Vizekanzler und ehemalige Außenminister Sigmar Gabriel wagte unlängst in einem Gespräch mit Journalisten die Prognose: „Ich bin relativ sicher, dass die Ukraine Kampfflugzeuge bekommen wird.“

    Dann fügte er den entscheidenden Satz hinzu:

    Aber die politische Entscheidung, ob wir uns daran beteiligen, ist keine deutsche: Ich würde dazu raten, die Führung da zu lassen, wo sie ist, nämlich bei den USA.

    In seiner Regierungserklärung lieferte Kanzler Scholz denn auch nur vage Durchhalteparolen wie „Der Weg hin zu diesem Frieden erfordert tapferes Handeln“, aber kaum brauchbare Informationen. Zur Blitzvisite im Weißen Haus waren im Regierungsflugzeug erstmals in seiner Amtszeit Journalisten unerwünscht. Die übliche Pressekonferenz im Weißen Haus entfiel. Für überzeugte Demokraten sollte das ein Warnsignal sein.

    Nach einer neuen Führungsrolle in Europa oder gar in der Welt sieht das nicht aus, eher nach Vasallentreue gegenüber einem übermächtigen Hegemonen. Es braucht schon Scheuklappen, um diesen Zustand als die beste der Optionen zu betrachten.

    Der Blick über den Tellerrand

    Vielleicht gibt es aktuell aber auch keine guten Handlungsoptionen für einen Zwergstaat wie Deutschland – jedenfalls nicht kurzfristig.

    Wenn wir einen Deutschen Politiker mit einer nüchternen Einschätzung der Situation und einem klaren Blick auf die Möglichkeiten suchen, müssen wir wohl einige Jahre zurück gehen.

    Auf seinem letzten öffentlichen Auftritt auf einem SPD-Parteitag (2011-12-04) wirkte der damals 92-Jährige frischer als mancher Delegierte im Saal. Er wandte sich vehement gegen „die schädliche deutschnationale Kraftmeierei“. Wenn 2050 neun Milliarden Menschen auf der Erde wimmeln werden, wird der alte Kontinent nicht mehr wie 2011 30 Prozent der weltweiten Wirtschaftsleistung erbringen, sondern nur noch ein Zehntel dessen. Spätestens dann werde ein Land alleine „nicht mehr in Prozent gemessen, sondern nur noch in Promillezahlen

    Hellsichtig fürwahr. Als der frühere Bundestagspräsident Wolfgang Thierse ihn fragte, wann die Bundesrepublik denn endlich ein ganz normales Land in Europa sein werde, war Schmidts Antwort war ebenso kurz wie ernüchternd: „In absehbarer Zeit nicht.“ Nach zwei Kriegen in einem Jahrhundert hätten noch Generationen von Deutschen mit ihrer historischen Last und dem latenten Argwohn in den europäischen Nachbarländern zu leben, prophezeit er.

    Diese Gedanken weitergeführt, liegt Deutschlands Rolle eher in einer engen Integration mit den europäischen Nachbarländern, die eine gesellschaftliche Prägung erfahren haben, die gleiche Werte in ihrer Firmware tragen. Ein Rütlischwur auf europäischer Ebene würde es uns zumindest ermöglichen, statt in Promille wieder mit einem Prozentanteil am Weltgeschehen bemessen zu werden.